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媒体和警方是如何估算集会人数的 – 译学馆
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媒体和警方是如何估算集会人数的

How Do the Media and Police Estimate Crowd Sizes?

In the video today we are answering a viewer question
今天的节目我们将回答一个观众提问
because Keith H. asks us,
Keith H.问道
When the police and media report crowd sizes of a parade or something,
当警察和媒体报道游行等活动的人群规模时
What do they base their numbers on?
他们的数据是基于什么得出的?
Although the task of determining how many people attend
确定有多少人参加了某个大型活动
something as large as say, a political rally or a protest
比如政治集会或抗议等
may seem like a daunting,
这个任务一看就令人生畏
almost impossible undertaking to do with any accuracy, with some basic information,
要知道精确数字几乎不可能 如果仅靠一些基础信息的话
it’s actually not that difficult to get reasonably accurate results.
但实际上 要得出合理的准确数值也没那么难
The most well-known method of estimating the size of a given crowd is simply called
最广为人知的估算既定人群规模的方法叫
”The Jacobs’ Method”
“雅克布斯法”
as an ode to its inventor, Herbert Jacobs.
以它的发明人赫伯特·雅克布斯而命名
Jacobs spent a few decades working for the Milwaukee Journal before
雅克布斯在《密尔沃基新闻卫报》工作了数十年
retiring into teaching journalism at the University of California, Berkeley in the 1960s.
20世纪60年代 他退休后在加州伯克利大学任教新闻学
He thought up his very simple crowd size estimate method
他这种简单估算人群规模的方法源自于
after observing numerous Vietnam War protests outside of his office window.
对自己办公窗外的众多反越战抗议者的观察
Jacobs noticed that the area the students stood on had a repeating grid-like pattern,
雅克布斯注意到 学生们站的区域有重复的网格图案
meaning he could very easily count how many students occupied a certain amount of space
这意味着他可以很容易算出特定空间里有多少个学生
by counting how many students on average seemed to be able to stand inside a section of the grid.
只要他数一数每个网格里平均可容纳多少学生
By doing this, he soon noticed some patterns.
通过这个方式 他很快地注意到一些规律
For example, Jacobs found that in the most densely packed crowds,
举个例子 雅克布斯发现最密集的人群中
each person took up approximately 2.5 square feet.
每一个人占了 大约2.5平方英尺的空间
We should note that this is the absolute upper limit of a how dense a crowd can safely get,
需要指出 这是在保障安全下人群能达到的密度绝对上限
as in, you simply couldn’t fit more people into a crowd this dense
也就是说 这个密度的人群不能再增加更多人
without someone being trampled or worse,
否则会发生踩踏或者更糟的情况
which is probably why most, including some scholarly articles on the subject we read,
这也是为什么大家 包括一些这类主题的学术刊物
simply refer to it as”mosh-pit density”.
将这个密度简单称之为“舞池密度”
In a dense, but more manageable crowd,
在一个密集 相对可控的群体中
Jacobs observed that participants had a comparably more roomy 4.5 square feet
雅克布斯观察到 成员们有相对宽敞的4.5英尺空间
whilst those in a”light” crowd had a positively breezy 10 square feet to themselves.
而在“稀疏”人群中 人们拥有通风良好的10平方英尺空间
In any event, once he had the approximate average number of students in each grid,
无论如何 只要他知道每个网格中学生人数的大概平均数
he could then easily calculate the number of grids in an area occupied at a given density,
再计算出出既定密度下区域的网格数量
and quite quickly come up with a very good estimate of how many people were in a given crowd.
然后就可以快速估算出人群的人数
Thus, the now Gold Standard, and remarkably simple,”Jacobs’ Method” was born.
就这样 诞生了今天我们沿用的黄金法则 简单明了的“雅克布斯法”
This may sound like an overly simple solution but the truth is,
听起来这像一个过于简单的解决方法 但是实际上
it’s strikingly accurate when done by non-biased observers,
在中立观测者的使用下 它的估测相当准确
and modern technology has only made it easier.
并且 现代技术让测算更为简单
For instance, tools like Google Earth have made learning the exact size and area of a location,
比如 像谷歌地球这样的工具可以获知地区的准确大小
as well as dividing an area into grids,
也可以把地区划分为方格式
an almost trivial feat for just about anyone.
几乎任何人都做得到这个小壮举
And thanks to ubiquitous media coverage,
还有 因为有了无处不在的社交媒体
any large gathering of people is going to have video or photographic footage
任何参加大型集会的人们都会拍摄录像或照片
if not just scanning the Tweetosphere for people in the crowd
如果你没有 只要在推特上搜一下参加了集会的人
who may have gotten a good shot,it’s an option.
他们已经拍了绝佳的照片 你可以采用
So breaking things down from there is relatively trivial.
把估算集会人数分解成这种小问题 貌似有些微不足道
Of course, one could get really fancy
当然 你可以采用相当复杂的方法
and take a photo of an entire crowd
拍下整个人群的照片
and use a bit of custom designed image processing software
通过一系列专门设计的图像处理软件
to programmatically count the people in a crowd for a more exact number,
编程来计算出人群的精确人数
but the extra level of accuracy here over the properly executed Jacobs’ Method
但是这种额外精准度和恰当使用雅克布斯法的计算相比
isn’t really typically that much, nor all that necessary.
并没有太大差别 或者说没有太大必要性
Of course, when giving estimations,
当然 估算人数时
sometimes the news media or the organisers of an event
有的时候新闻媒体或者活动组织方
do like to fudge the numbers a bit.
确实很喜欢把数字夸大一点
Perhaps the most famous example is
可能最有名的例子
that of the Million Man March- a mass gathering of black Americans (mostly men) that took place in 1995.
就是1995年的百万美国黑人集会(主要是男性)
As you can probably guess from the name of the march,
你应该能从这个游行的名称猜到
event organisers afterwards were very insistent that at least a million men had attended,
活动组织者后来坚称至少一百万人参加了游行
with estimates going as high as two million.
这个估算也高达两百万
However the National Parks Service disagreed
然而国家公园管理处不认可这个数字
and offered up a much lower,
他们的估数少了许多
but still extremely significant figure of around 400,000 individuals.
他们测算为40万人左右 这个数据也已经令人惊叹了
But when something is called the Million Man March,
但是当游行已经被冠以百万之名
400,000 seems a bit of a letdown,
40万就有些令人失望
even though it’s logically very much not;
尽管听起来很不符合逻辑
getting 400,000 people ( about 1.2 % of all black Americans in the United States at the time )
但是召集40万人(几乎是那时全美黑人总人数的1.2%)
to show up at such an event in Washington DC is really quite a feat.
去出席华盛顿的这种活动实属盛举
Nevertheless, the NPS’s estimate incensed a key player behind the march, Louis Farrakhan,
然而 国家公园管理处的估算激怒了这次游行的关键人物 路易斯·法拉罕
so much so that he threatened to sue the NPS.
他很生气以致于威胁要起诉国家公园管理处
As a direct result of the brouhaha that followed,
这场闹剧的直接后果就是
the NPS is now banned by congress from estimating
现在国家公园管理处被国会禁止
the size of crowds in Washington, at least publicly.
估测华盛顿集会人群的规模 至少不能公开
As they noted, if the President asks them for how big a crowd was,
据称 如果总统要求他们预估集会规模
they’re happy to crunch the numbers given footage of the crowd.
他们很愿意把集会的人数好好算一下
However they just aren’t technically supposed to use tax payer dollars in this way anymore,
当然 他们不会再用纳税人的钱去做这件事
So wouldn’t share that information with the media who,
所以也不会和媒体分享这些信息
of course, could quite easily come up with their own estimates.
当然 媒体也很容易得出自己的估算
So how many people actually attended the Million Man March?
所以 到底有多少人参加了百万人游行呢?
While an exact figure is impossible to discern,
尽管现在已经无法得到一个精确数字
most researchers are in agreement that the original estimation of the NPS is pretty accurate.
但是大多数研究者都认同国家公园管理处的测算比较准确
For example, in 2004 a pair of researchers,
比如 2004年有一对研究者
Clark McPhail and John D. McCarthy, worked out that in the location
克拉克·迈克菲和乔治• D 麦卡锡亲临集会现场
of the gathering there would have been space for a maximum
发现这个地区最大空间容纳
of 1,048,206 people assuming that every inch of the crowd was as densely packed as safely
在假定安全密度为1,048,206人
possible at 2.5 square feet per person.
即每人占地2.5平方英尺时的最大人数
In the end, from the pictures available of the gathering,
后来 通过留存的集会照片
they determined that the NPS’s
他们认为国家公园管理处
estimate of about 400,000 was quite accurate.
估测的40万人数是相当准确的
This isn’t a one-off case either;
这当然不是一个个案
research has shown that the estimates of event organizers are consistently higher than those of the police,
研究还发现活动组织者估测人数一贯比警察的估算高
who tend to give more accurate predictions
警察的预估更为准确
given the events generally take place in gathering spaces that are well documented in case of emergency,
尤其是在那些已经登记在案的集会空间举办的活动
Of course, event organizers ( and sometimes the media )
有时活动组织者(有时是媒体)
can have something to gain by overstating how large a crowd is,
夸大集会人数是别有所图
while the police and other official agencies generally do not.
但警察和其他官方机构一般不会另有所图
That said, there aren’t certainly examples out there of
也就是说 没有实例能说明
official agencies intentionally adjusting announced crowd sizes for one reason or another
政府机构澄清集会规模的人数是出于某个特定理由
just like organisers love to do.
而活动组织者们一贯都别有所图
Luckily, there’s a simple method of accurately estimating the size of a crowd that’s free from bias,
所幸 存在简单又不带偏见的方法去精准测算集会人数
and these days can be easily done even just by
如今这更容易办到
some guy sitting at home in his PJs surfing the web half way across the world
你穿着睡衣隔着大半个地球在家上网就可以办到
from where the event is actually happening,
就算隔着集会现场十万八千里
which is more than a little amazing.
这神奇的程度不止一点点
Don’t you think?
你觉得呢
Bonus Fact: The “cheerleader effect,”
彩蛋:“拉拉队队长效应”
the theory that people look more attractive in groups, has been around for ages.
人们在群体中更具有吸引力 这个说法由来已久
In 2013, research by Drew Walker and Edward Vul of the University of California
2013年 加州大学的Drew Walker和Edward Vul
published in Psychological Science demonstrated that th is actually true;
在《心理科学》上发表了这个观点
people do report others looking more attractive
人们确实认为处于群体中的他人
in groups than when seeing the same individual without others around them.
比没有同伴围绕的同一个体更有魅力
As to why this happens, they proposed it is because,
为了解释这个理论 他们提出这是因为
“(a) The visual system automatically computes ensemble representations of faces presented in a group,
(a)视觉系统会自动将一个群体里多个面孔视作一个整体处理
(b) individual members of the group are biased toward this ensemble average,
(b)群体中的个体成员会由于整体平均水平受到误判
and (c) average faces are attractive.
(c)平均水平的容貌很有吸引力
Taken together, these phenomena suggest
总的来说 这些现象说明
that individual faces will seem more attractive when presented in a group
个体面孔在群体中展现时会更吸引人
because they will appear more similar to the average group face,
因为他们会接近这个群体的平均面貌
which is more attractive than group members’ individual faces.”
而平均面貌比单独个体的面貌更具有吸引力
So I really hope you found the video interesting,
我真心希望你觉得这个视频有点意思
if you did, you know to do smash that like botton, don’t forget to subscribe all that good staff.
如果你觉得有趣的话 你懂的 赶紧点赞 以及订阅所有好的节目
Alos I’ve got another channel it’s called highlight history, I ‘m gonna link that below.
另外 我还有一档节目叫“聚焦历史” 链接我会放在下面
And always, thank you for watching
一如既往地 感谢您的观看

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视频概述

新闻里游行人数是怎么得出来的呢 让我们来听听看吧

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AYKCx-_Ois

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