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认知偏见会如何扭曲现实

How Cognitive Biases Bend Reality: Private Optimism vs. Public Despair | Neuroscientist Tali Sharot

我要请你想象一下自己的未来
I’m going to ask you to imagine your future.
所以自我想象一下五年后 十年后 十五年后(的样子)
So imagine yourself five years from now, ten years from now, 15 years from now.
想象你的家庭 想象你的人际关系 想象你的事业
Think about your family, think about your relationships, think about your career.
真实地试着在你的脑海中获得生动的影像
Really try to get vivid images in your mind.
然后我的第一个问题是:这儿谁想象出了积极正面的影像啊
So my first question is: who here comes up with positive images?
就举起你们的手吧
Just put your hand up.

Okay.
不错 那十分普遍
Yes, that’s quite normal.
那么现在我将问你们四个具体的问题
And now I’m going to ask you four specific questions.
第一个:如果你现在是已婚 你有多大可能离婚?
Number one: if you’re currently married what is the likelihood that you will get divorced?
百分之十 百分之五十 百分之九十?
Ten percent, 50 percent, 90 percent.
那么不用告诉我们 只要记在脑海中
So don’t tell us, just keep it in your mind.
第二:对于你的家庭你有多乐观?
Number two: how optimistic are you about your family?
一点点乐观 十分乐观 不那么乐观?
Slightly optimistic, very optimistic, not so optimistic.
第三:对待在这个房间里的其他人其他家庭
Number three: how optimistic are you about the other people and other families in this
你有多乐观?
room?
还有第四:有多大的机率你将在财政上和事业上成功?
And number four: what are the chances that you will prosper financially and professionally?
那么现在让我们看看其他人是怎么回答这些问题的
And now let’s see how other people answer these questions.
我们将从婚姻开始
We’ll start with marriage.
所以在西方世界离婚率大约为百分之四十
So in the Western world divorce rates are about 40 percent.
那意味着在每五对结婚的夫妻中
That means that out of every five couples walking down the aisle, two will end up splitting
有两对将以分他们的财产结束
their assets.
但是当你向新婚夫妇询问他们自己离婚的可能性
But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce they estimate it at
他们估计那概率为零
around zero percent.
并且甚至是真正更了解这些的离婚律师
And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better, hugely underestimate their own
都大大的低估了他们自己离婚的概率
likelihood of divorce.
现在结果发现乐观主义者并不是有更低的可能性离婚
Now it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce but they are more likely
而是有更高的可能性再婚
to remarry.
用塞缪乐约翰逊的话来说“再婚是希望战胜了一段经历的结果”
In the words of Samuel Johnson, “Remarriage is a triumph of hope over experience.”
现在统计的说 如果你结婚了你更有可能生小孩
Now statistically if you’re married you’re more likely to have kids and we all think
而我们都认为我们的小孩将特别出色
that our kids will be especially talented.
顺便说一下 这是我自己的小孩利维亚和利奥
These by the way are my own kids, Livia and Leo, and they’re a very bad example of the
关于乐观偏见他们是非常不好的例子 因为他们特别优秀
optimism bias because they are especially talented.
而不只是我这样
And I’m not alone.
在每四个人中 有三个人会说对于他们家庭的未来
Out of every four people, three said that they were optimistic about the future of their
他们十分乐观
own families.
也就是百分之七十五
That’s 75 percent.
但是只有百分之三十的人说他们认为下一代将
But only 30 percent said that they thought that the next generation will be doing better
比现在这一代做得更好
than the current one.
而那是一个重点 因为我们对自己很乐观
And that’s a really important point because we’re optimistic about ourselves, we’re
对我们的家庭乐观 对我们的孩子也乐观
optimistic about our families, we’re optimistic about our kids.
但对于坐在我们旁边的伙计我们却不那么乐观
But we’re not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us.
而且对于我们国家的未来和我们领导者的能力
And we’re somewhat pessimistic about the future of our country and the ability of our
是有几分悲观的
leaders.
而我们把这个对个人的乐观叫对于公众的不乐观
And we call this private optimism versus public despair.
这现象的一个原因是管理能力
One reason for this is control.
我们感觉我们能掌控自己的命运
We feel we have control over our own destiny.
我们感觉我们能控制车轮在正确的方向
We feel we can steer the wheel in the right direction and so we’re optimistic about
所以我们对自己的未来是积极乐观的
our own future.
但我们觉得我们不能控制我们国家将走向何处
But we don’t feel we have control over where our country is going or where our leaders
不能控制领导者将带我们到哪
are taking us.
所以我们对待那些议题较不乐观
And so we’re less optimistic about those issues.
如果你是小型企业的拥有者 例如 在美国每三个小型企业中
If you take small-business owners, for example, in the U.S. out of every three small-business
只有一个小型企业将在五年后留存下来屹立不倒
owners only one small business will remain standing in five years.
所以那机率是百分之三十三
So that’s 33 percent.
但当你询问小型企业的持有者关于他们自己的企业一直运营的可能性
But when you ask small business owners about their own likelihood of remaining standing,
百分之八十的人会说成功的人将是他们
80 percent say that it will be them that will succeed.
那意味着他们中的一半将会在他们失败时感到不高兴的惊讶
That means that half of them are going to be unpleasantly surprised when they fail.
所以这些都是我们叫做乐观偏见的例子
So these are all examples of what we call the optimism bias which is our tendency to
也就是 我们倾向于猜想未来会比过去和现在更好 或者 普遍来说
imagine the future to be better than the past or present and, on average, to overestimate
高估我们在人生中经历积极的事件的可能性
our likelihood of experiencing positive events in our lives and underestimate the likelihood
而低估经历消极事件的可能性
of experiencing negative events.
这并不意味着在生活的各个方面我们都是乐观的
This does not mean that with every aspect of our life we’re optimistic.
也并不意味着每个人都是乐观的
It doesn’t mean that everyone is optimistic.
但是平均来说我们发现在总人口的百分之八十中存在这样的现象 而且我们发现
But on average we find this in about 80 percent of the population and we find it in females,
它存在于女人中 存在于男人中 存在于世界上不同的国家中 存在于西方国家
we find it in males, we find it in different countries around the world, in Western countries,
也存在于非西方国家
in non-Western countries.
所以它可真是一个全球化的现象
So it’s quite a global phenomenon.
通常当人们听到这样的结果 他们问的第一个问题是
Usually when people hear about this, the first question that they ask is: well, is this a
好吧 那这是一件好事情还是坏事情呢
good thing or is it a bad thing?
答案是 好事情
And the answer is, “Yes”.
所以在积极的一方面 如果我们是乐观的我们对未来有好的期望
So on the positive side, if we’re optimistic, we have positive expectations of the future,
那减轻了压力和焦虑 这有益于我们的身体健康
that reduces stress and anxiety, which is good for our physical health and it’s also
也有利于我们的心理健康
good for our mental health.
我们发现百分之二十的人没有乐观偏见 他们中的一半
What we find is that the 20 percent that don’t have the optimism bias, about half of them
对于轻度萧条的人们事实上并不带偏见之处倾向于悲观
tend to have depression where people with mild depression actually do not have a bias.
那并不意味着他们对预测未来更加的精确
That doesn’t mean that they’re more accurate in predicting the future.
那只表明他们有时候在乐观的一面犯错有时则在悲观的一面
It just means that sometimes they err on the side of optimism and sometimes they err on
所以他们并没有一个系统性的偏差
the side of pessimism so they don’t have a systematic bias.
另外的百分之十倾向于没有乐观偏见但也不是悲观
The other ten percent tend to not have an optimism bias but are not depressed.
而另外一个乐观的优点是 如果我们有积极的期望
And the other advantage of optimism is that if we have positive expectation it enhances
那能提高我们的动力
motivation.
如果我认为我的公司将会成功 然后我会更加努力
If I think my company is going to succeed then I try harder and it becomes a self-fulfilling
而它便成为一种自我实现的预言
prophecy.
如果我想着“啊 它不会实现的”
If I think, ‘Well, it’s not going to work out.
我将不会得到晋升 然后我不会尝试并且我更可能失败了
I’m not going to get that promotion,’ then I don’t try and I’m more likely to fail.
所以那都是积极的方面
So those are the positive aspects.
但是这也有消极的方面 因为如果我们低估我们的风险
But there are also negative aspects because if we underestimate our risks we might not
我们可能不会采取预防措施
take precautionary action.
当我们骑自行车时我们可能不会戴上头盔
We might not wear a helmet when we bike.
当这是个好主意时我们也可能不买保险
We might not buy insurance when it’s a good idea.
我们可能不去做医学检查
We might not go to medical screenings.
但我认为经过漫长的进化历程人们已经进化得更乐观
But I think that over evolution humans have evolved to be optimistic because on average
因为平均来说积极的比消极的更有意义
the positive outweighs the negative.
而如果你回忆起我们的祖先(那时)为了离开洞穴开始打猎 他们不得不
And if you think back to our ancestors, to get out of the cave and hunt, they had to imagine
想象有一些猎物在那里让他们去发现 想象他们回去的能力
that there’s something out there for them to find and their ability to come back.
为了离开非洲 探索世界的其它地方
To leave Africa and explore the rest of the world,
他们不得不想象有些地域他们将会发现
they had to imagine that there’s something that they would find and they had to imagine
他们不得不想象有些东西可能比他们已经拥有的更好
that that is something that may be better than what they already had.
而且人们不是总能意识到他们的头脑是如何工作
And people are not always aware of how their brain works or the fact that they have an
或者他们存在乐观偏见的事实
optimism bias.
很多次人们会走进我的实验室 说“不 不对
A lot of times people will come into my lab and say, “No, no.
我是个现实主义者
I’m a realist.
我还是个悲观主义者”
I’m a pessimist.”
这在英国更是如此
This is especially true in the UK.
但然后当你测试他们的期望再看结果时 你会发现存在乐观
But then when you test their expectations and look at the outcome you find the optimism
偏见
bias.
但开始对此有意识真的能帮助我们 例如 使交流更有效
But becoming aware of this can really help us, for example, to be more effective in communicating,
因为我们获悉了他人的脑力是如何工作的
because we understand how other people’s brains work.
当需要修复我们的动机时 例如 可以通过创造预期事件
To restore our motivation when needed by, for example, creating anticipatory events.
也可以通过避免自己过于乐观造成消极后果
And by protecting ourselves from the negative consequences of over-optimism.
为了保护自己 我们不能消除偏见
To protect ourselves we can’t make the bias go away.
只是了解它并不能消除错觉
The illusion will not just go away by knowing about it.
为了更好的理解前一句话 我将以一个例子来结束
And to really kind of get that message across I’m going to end with this example which
也就是一个视错觉的例子
is an example from vision illusions.
所以看到这 你看见了什么
So if you look at this, what do you see?
它看上去像一个微笑女孩的倒置照片 对吧
It looks like an upside-down photo of a smiling girl, right.
好 那让我们测试这个
Okay, let’s test this.
所以当你看到像这样一张照片 很明显有些不对 好的
So when you look at it like this, it’s quite clear that something is wrong, right.
这被叫做撒切尔视错觉 因为它第一次被演示
It’s called the Thatcher illusion because it was first demonstrated on Prime Minister
是用不以微笑出名的首相玛格丽特•撒切尔(的照片)
Margaret Thatcher who wasn’t known for her smiles.
而它起效的原因是我们非常擅于理解竖直的脸
And the reason that it works is that we’re very, very good at perceiving upright faces.
我们专注于此
We do it all the time.
我们看见周围坚直的脸 任何微小的细节预示都可以
We see upright faces around us and any little small something weird is something that we
使我们深度揣摩
can perceive very well.
然而我们不是理解倒竖着的脸的专家
However, we are not experts at perceiving upside-down faces.
我们不能做到那样
We don’t do that.
所以这很简单我们看不见这些有点古怪的细节
So it’s really easy for us to not see these kind of odd things.
但这测试的重点是什么呢
But what is the point of this?
这重点在于尽管我向你们解释了这种错觉 你们也看见了它是如何呈现
The point of this is that although I explain the illusion to you and you saw it unfold,
你们依然会被骗
you’re still tricked.
所以了解它并不能消除它
So knowing about it doesn’t make it go away.
而认知偏见与此也没有什么不同
And it’s no different for these cognitive biases.
还有乐观偏见(也一样)
Optimism bias.
我将数据展示于你们
I showed you the data.
你们可能就相信了
You probably believe it.
这并不意味着(偏见)将消除
It doesn’t mean that it’s going to make it go away.
但我们可以做的是知道我们存在偏见而提前打算
But what we can do is plan ahead knowing that we have it.

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视频概述

视频向我们展示了个人对现实的感知与事实的偏差

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Chuckle

审核员

瞌睡虫儿

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31is3jdCyWg

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