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未来出行新方式:无人驾驶飞行的士

How autonomous flying taxis could change the way you travel | Rodin Lyasoff

我爱飞机
I love airplanes.
噢——我爱飞机
Oh — I love airplanes. So,
90年代后期 我上大学时
when I went to collegein the late 90s,
很显然 我将要学的是航空航天专业
it was obvious that I wasgoing to study aerospace.
而且你不会相信有多少人告诉我
And you wouldn’t believehow many people told me,
“噢 不 别是航空航天专业
“Oh no, not aerospace.
航空航天会很无聊的
Aerospace is going to be boring,
航空航天方面的研究早就做完了
everything in aerospace has already been done.” Well,
他们有一点落伍了
they were a little bit off the mark.
实际上
And in fact,
我认为下个十年将是另一个航空黄金时代
I think the next decade is going to be another golden age for aviation.
因为一件事 我对此很激动
For one thing, and this iswhere I get excited,
飞行将变得更加私人化
flight is about to geta lot more personal. So,
其实有一点自相矛盾
a little compare and contrast.
上个世纪
In the last century,
大型商用客机使全球的城市联系起来了
large commercial airplanes have connected cities across the globe.
100年前 为了一个5天的会议
And 100 years ago, it would have been unthinkable for all of us
从世界各地飞来这里是无法想象的
to fly here from around the worldfor a five-day conference.
但我们做了 而且大多人可能一秒都没犹豫
But we did, and most of us probably without a second thought.
对人类来说 这是一个非凡的成就
And that’s a remarkableachievement for humanity.
但这样一天天下去
But on a day-to-day basis,
我们还是在车上花很多时间
we still spend a lot of time in cars.
或想尽办法避免花时间
Or actively trying to avoid it.
我的几个好朋友住在旧金山
Some of my best friendslive in San Francisco,
我住在山景城 大概40英里远
I live in Mountain View,about 40 miles away.
我们都很忙
We’re all busy.
一天结束后
At the end of the day,
我们因为像两小时的堵车这类事情分开了
we’re separated by something like two hours of heavy traffic.
坦白说 接下来几个月我们都没有见到对方
So frankly, we haven’t seeneach other in a few months.
现在
Now,
我在圣何塞市中心工作 靠近机场
I work in downtown San Jose, which is near the airport.
所以有那么几天 我会放下工作
And there are actually dayswhen I can leave work,
搭上飞机 前往洛杉矶
get on a plane and fly to Los Angeles
比我开车到旧金山还快
faster than I can drive to San Francisco.
城市人口只会越来越多道路挤得满满的
Cities are only getting more populated, the roads are full,
想扩展道路真的很难
and it’s really difficult to expand them.
很多地方都是这样
And so in a lot of places,
实在没有什么好的方案
there really aren’t a lot of good solutions
可以解决交通问题
for getting around traffic.
但如果你可以飞过去呢
But what if you could fly over it?
天空还没有充分利用
The sky is underutilized,
我一定会说 空中永远不会像地面那样拥堵
and I would argue it will never be as congested as the roads are.
首先 你有一个全方位的视野
First of all, you’ve gota whole other dimension,
而且出于安全考虑以及空中交通管制
but also just safety considerationsand air-traffic management
都不会允许空中交通太过拥挤
will not allow bumper-to-bumpertraffic in the sky.
这意味着 很多情况下
Which means, in many cases,
飞行是一个长期的 强有力的方案
flying can be a long-term, compelling alternative
替代地面出行
to traveling on the ground.
想象一下
So imagine this:
打一辆优步
you call an Uber,
送你到附近的一个着陆点
it takes you to a nearby landing spot —
我们称之为垂直升降机场
we call these vertiports —
那里有一架飞机在等着你
there’s an airplane waiting for you there,
带你从拥堵的交通中飞过
flies you over allof the traffic in the middle,
另一方面 还有一辆优步带你到朋友家
and on the other side, another Uber takes you to your friend’s house.
我说的是优步
And I said Uber,
但我真的认为我们应该
but I really think we need
恭喜来福车品牌团队
to congratulate the Lyft branding team
为了他们选择品牌的先见之明
for their forward thinkingin choosing their brand.
那么
so
(笑声)
(Laughter)
那么这个例子中
So in that example, OK,
我承认有几个额外的步骤
there are a few extra steps, I admit.
但这是30分钟对比两小时
But it’s 30 minutes versus two hours,
你大概花60美元 就可以飞行
it costs around 60 dollars, and you get to fly.
我们还没到这一步
We’re not there yet,
但比你们可能想象的要更接近
but we are a lot closer than you might think.
那么我们首先需要的
So one of the first things we need
是一架飞机
is we need an aircraft that
它可以在狭小的空间起飞
can take off and land in small spaces
然后快速把你带到目的地
and quickly take you where you want to go.
目前直升飞机就能做到
And helicopters can do that today,
但通常来说 直升机的费用有点高
but traditionally, helicopters have beenjust a little bit too expensive,
操控有点难
just a little too hard to pilot
用于城市的日常交通有点吵
and just a little too noisy to be used for daily transportation in cities. Well,
但是 电动飞机和自动驾驶正在改变这一现状
electric flight and autonomyare changing that.
尤其是电动飞机 解锁了机器配置新的可能性
Electric flight, in particular, unlocks new possibilitiesfor vehicle configurations
那是我们过去触及不到的
that we just could notexplore in the past.
如果我们使用电动马达
If you use electric motors,
你可以在飞机周围安装许多
you can have many of them around the aircraft,
而且并不会增加很多额外的重量
and it doesn’t add a lot of extra weight.
这样就使得机身轻巧又结实
And that gives you redundancy and safety.
而且 它比内燃机成本更低
And also, they are cleaner,cheaper and quieter
但更清洁 噪音也更小
than internal combustion engines.
自动驾驶可以衡量交通网
Autonomy allows the transportationnetwork to scale,
而且我确实认为它使飞机更安全
and I actually thinkit makes the aircraft safer.
商业航班早就已经在大多航程中使用自动驾驶
Commercial flights are already automatedfor most of their duration,
我相信迟早有那么一天
and I believe there will come a day
我们甚至不会信任需要由人来驾驶的飞机
when we won’t even trust an airplane that required a human to fly. So,
我们在A3的一个团队
one of our teams at A3
想知道未来究竟有多近
wanted to see just how closethis future really was.
所以他们研发了这样一个机器原型 并进行试飞
So they built and flew a prototypeof one such vehicle.
他们强调只使用现今已成熟的 市场上可获得的技术
And they made a point of only using mature, commercially available technologies today.
我们称之为“Vahana”
We call it Vahana.
它是完全电动的
It’s fully electric.
它垂直起飞降落 但和常规飞机一样向前飞行
It takes off and lands vertically, but flies forward like a regular airplane.
它是完全自动驾驶的
It’s fully self-piloted.
按下按钮 它就起飞
You push a button, it takes off,
航行 降落 都是自动的
flies and lands, all by itself.
你在这看到的原型是为
The prototype that you see here is designed
运载单人旅客及行李箱设计的
to carry a single passenger and luggage.
15分钟大概能飞20英里
And it can go about20 miles in 15 minutes.
我们估计这样的航行
And our estimate for a trip
大概要花40美元
like that is it would cost around 40 dollars,
你真的可以发展周边业务
which you can reallybuild a business around.
它有多个多余的发动机及电池
It has multiple redundantmotors and batteries,
就算坏了一个 也能正常航行并着陆
you can lose one, it will continueflying and land normally.
真的很安静
It’s pretty quiet.
它在头顶飞过时
When it’s flying overhead,
比公路上的普锐斯还要安静
it will be quieter than a Prius on the highway.
它非常智能 而且配有摄像机 激光雷达和无线电探测器
It’s intelligent and has cameras,lidar and radar,
因此它能探测并避免意外遇到的障碍
so it can detect and avoidunexpected obstacles.
团队专注于它的高效性
And the team really focusedon making it efficient,
因此电池很小很轻但续航时间更长
so the batteries are small, light,and they last longer.
可以参考一下
For reference,
Vahana电池尺寸
the Vahana battery
不到特斯拉 Model S电池的一半大
is less than half the size of a Tesla Model S battery.
大概40千瓦·时
It’s about 40 kilowatt-hours.
而且你在几分钟后就可以热插拔电池
And you can hot swap the batteries in just a few minutes.
我敢肯定 几年之后
And I do think that in a few years,
人们将会乐于乘坐
people will be comfortable getting by themselves
电动的自动驾驶 垂直升降空中出租车
in a self-piloted, electric,VTOL air taxi.
但团队现在忙于研发下一代产品
But the team is busyworking on the next version,
它将至少运载两位乘客
which is going to carryat least two passengers
而且能飞得更远
and fly quite a bit farther.
但更重要的是 全球有超过20家公司
But more importantly, there areover 20 companies around the world
正在研发像这样的机器
working on vehiclesjust like this one right now.
我乐观估计 接下来的五年中
My best guess is in the next five years,
你就将在某些城市看到垂直升降机场
you’ll start seeingvertiports in some cities,
以及拼车软件上的飞机图标
and little airplane iconson your ride-sharing apps.
一开始可能只有几十架
And it might begin with a dozen,
但最终 会有几百架这种飞机
but eventually, we could havehundreds of these,
盘旋在城市上空
flying around our cities.
它将会从根本上改变我们与本地交通的关系
And it will fundamentally transformour relationship with local travel.
上个世纪 飞机将地球联系在一起
In the past century,flight connected our planet,
接下来 它将重新联系我们的本地社区
in the next, it will reconnectour local communities,
我希望它也能重新联系我们彼此
and I hope it willreconnect us to each other.
感谢
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)
克里斯·安德森-好 那么这些东西
Chris Anderson: OK, so whenthese things first roll out —
目前还是单人飞机 对吗
right now, it’s a singleperson aircraft, right?
罗丹·李亚夫-是的
Rodin Lyasoff: Ours is, yes. CA:
克里斯-是的
Yours is.
我是说 人们从车里出来
I mean, someone comes out of their car,
打开门 然后进去
the door opens, they get in,
那里没有其他人
there’s no one else in there.
这个东西起飞
This thing takes off.
我们能做个民意测验吗
Could we do a poll here?
因为大厅里都是最早接受无人驾驶的人
Because these areearly adopters in this room.
我想知道这里有谁对于
I want to know who here is excited
单独乘坐自动驾驶飞机感到激动
about the idea of being picked up solo in an auto-flying
好的 有答案了
Well, there you go!
罗丹:很好
RL:pretty good.
克里斯: 那太棒了
CA:That is pretty awesome,
一半的TED观众完全疯了
half of TED is completelystark staring bonkers.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
罗丹-我们专注在做的事情之一是
RL:So, one of the thingswe’re really focusing on is,
说实话 是成本
really, the cost.
你确实可以发展周边业务
So you can really wrapa business around that.
而是 这也是
And so, that’s why some
其中一些部件被价格推动的原因
of the features are really driven by price.
40美元的标价 真的是我们正在努力实现的目标
And the 40-dollar price tag is really a target that we’re aiming for.
这样就能把它推广到比这个更大的群体当中
Which should make it accessible to a larger crowd than this one. CA:
克里斯-当推广这个的时候 最大的障碍
The biggest blockagein terms of when this rolls out
可能不是目前的技术问题
is probably not the technology at this point —
而是管制 对吗?
it’s regulation, right? RL:
罗丹-可能是对的 我同意这一点
That’s probably true, yes,I would agree with that.
安全方面的技术还需要提升
The technology need to maturein terms of safety,
以达到我们期望的安全级别
to get to the safety levelsthat we expect from aircraft.
但我不认为会有什么反对者
But I don’t think there areany blockers there,
只是工作需要做好
just work needs to get done. CA:
克里斯-那么首先 这是拼车
So, first, this is ride sharing.
我们距离实现大多人车库里
Are we that far away from a time when lots
都有一架这样的飞机 可以直接开去朋友家
of people have one of these in their garage
真的那么远吗
and just kind of, go directto their friend’s house? RL:
罗丹-我个人的观点是
My personal view is
拼车实际上可以使你
that ride sharing actually allows you to operate
更高效地操控整个产业
that entire businessmuch more efficiently.
你知道 有的80后 90后
You know, there are millennials
不想拥有辆车
that say they never want to own a car.
我认为对于飞机他们更是如此
I think they’ll probably feeleven stronger about aircraft.
所以
So —
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我确实认为在网络上把它作为一个拼车平台
I really think that the network scales and operates a lot better
能够更好的操作 而且因为集成了空中交通管制
as a ride-sharing platform, also because the integrationwith air-traffic management
它能更有效地运转 如果集中处理的话
works a lot betterif it’s handled centrally. CA:
克里斯-很棒 感谢分享
Cool. Thank you for that. RL:
罗丹-谢谢
Thank you.
克里斯-真的很棒
CA: That was amazing.

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