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给机票定价似乎是件挺有风险的事情
Airline ticket pricing probably seems like a crapshoot.
机票价格似乎时时刻刻都在变化
The numbers change seemingly arbitrarily every week, day, or hour
但是机票定价确实有些科学依据
but there’s some real science behind these prices
人们用尽毕生之力寻找定价的办法
People spend their whole lives figuring out what to charge you to fly
以某一航线上某一航司承运的某一航班为例
Let’s take a look at one flight on one route by one airline to understand
美国航空33号航班每天早上7点从纽约肯尼迪机场出发
American Flight 33 leaves New York’s JFK airport every day at 7 a.m.
飞往洛杉矶 于太平洋时间早上10点51分到达
and bound for Los Angeles arriving at 10:51 a.m. Pacific time
这条航线贯穿美洲大陆 是世界上竞争最激烈的航线之一
This transcontinental route is one of the most competitive in the world
每年运输乘客人数超过350万
with over 3.5 million yearly passengers,
而且5大航司在美国这两个最大的城市之间均设有航线
and five major airlines connecting the country’s two largest cities
这条航线的定价尤其需要策略
There’s nowhere where pricing strategies are more important for airlines than here
看看这个航班三个月来的价格
Looking at three months of fares for this flight,
这里经济舱有八个不同的价格
there are eight distinct prices for economy
从129美元到472美元之间不等
ranging from $129 to $472
同一航班的同一座位却是不同的价格
These all get you on the exact same flight in the exact same seat
但是无论哪个价格都有其设置的目的
but each and every price has a purpose and place
其中最有竞争力的价格就是最低价129美元了
The lowest price $129, is the most competitive price
在三个月内 这个价格只出现过三次 每次都出现在周二
This fare only shows up three times in our three month span, each time on Tuesdays
现在 周二通常是一周中机票价格最低的一天
Now, Tuesdays are very often the cheapest days of the week to fly
商旅客人往往会最大化地利用一周的时间
Business travelers tend to make up much of the demand during the week
他们通常都是周一出行
and they most often want to fly out on Mondays,
周四或者周五返回
and return on Thursdays or Fridays
所以周一 周四和周五
So Mondays, Thursdays, and Fridays,
这几天的机票价格最高
tend to be the most expensive travel days
而周二和周三的票价通常是最便宜的
or Tuesdays and Wednesdays are often the cheapest
这个航班的平均票价是这样的
The average ticket price for this flight shows this:
周二平均价为182美元 周三平均价为173美元
Tuesdays average $ 182 and Wednesdays $173
即使需求较低
Even if the demand is lower
美国航空仍运营着这条航线
American airlines run this flight anyways
因此他们不得不多售票以维持收支平衡
and they have to fill seats to break even
所以他们以最低的价格售票
so they sell this flight at rock-bottom prices
下一个价格是144美元
The next price $144,
这个价格实际展示了一个十分有趣的现象
actually demonstrates a very interesting phenomenon
每次都有几个航空公司同时标价144美元
Whenever American prices their flight at $144, they are not alone
以3月6号的航班为例
Take March 6th for example
美国航空 达美航空 维珍航空 捷蓝航空 及美国联航
American, Delta, Virgin America, JetBlue and United
所有早上7点左右从纽约飞往洛杉矶的航班
all have flights from New York to L.A
售价均为144美元
at around 7 in the morning selling for $144
他们所做的就是价格匹配
They’re doing what is called the price matching
因为这是世界上竞争最激烈的航线之一
Because this is one of the most competitive routes in the world
且旅客购票的第一决定因素
and because the number one determinant for travelers
是机票的价格
on which airline they take is price
飞行这条航线的5家航空公司都在相互匹配价格
all five airlines flying this route match each others’ prices
这样 旅客会依据
This way, travelers make their decision
每家航司的声誉而非票价决定乘坐哪家的航班
based off the reputation of each airline rather than the price
价格一直定在144美元是因为
The price stays at $ 144
这让各航空公司利益最大化
because it’s in each airlines the best interest to keep it there
在正常的市场中 如果达美航空
In a normal market, if Delta for example,
将价格降至119美元
dropped their price to $ 119
他们将得到更多的旅客 因为其价格是最优惠的
they would get more travlers since they were the cheapest
但是在匹配价格市场中
but in this price matched market all the other airlines
一旦达美降价 其他航司也会跟着降价
would drop their prices as soon as Delta drops theirs
如此一来 吸引的旅客数量与之前一样 但利润却少了很多
so all of them would get the same amount of travelers as before while earning less money
但有时航空公司甚至愿意
But there are some cases where it can make business sense for airlines
以亏本价出售机票
to drop prices to below even being profitable
2000年左右
Around the year 2000,
西捷航空和已破产的加捷航空
WestJet and the now defunct CanJet airline
开始执飞从加拿大中部到纽芬兰的航线
started flying from central Canada to Newfoundland
此前只有加拿大航空执飞这些航线
These routes were historically operated exclusively by Air Canada,
并且票价昂贵
and they were expensive
在1999年一张从蒙特利尔出发到纽芬兰的单程机票就要600美元
A one-way flight from Montreal in 1999 cost over $ 600
但当廉价航空公司西捷和加捷开始开设这些航线后
But when the budget airlines WestJet and CanJet started flying the route,
票价明显便宜许多并使加航受到了威胁
prices dropped dramatically and Air Canada was threatened
所以他们（加航）将票价降得更低
So they dropped their prices even lower
原本600美元的加航机票此时仅需89美元
The $600 Air Canada fares then cost $89
现在 票价相同的情况下
Now, it wouldn’t make sense for anyone
没人会选择除加航外的廉价航班
to fly a buget airline over Air Canada at the same price
所以西捷和加捷航空几乎将这些航线全部撤掉
So WestJet and CanJet were almost driven out of business on these routes
直到加拿大竞争局介入
until Canada’s Competition Bureau stepped in
他们认定加航正在进行 恶性价格战
They concluded that Air Canada was engaging in the uncompetitive action of predatory pricing
因为他们将票价降到低于成本的价格
since they were pricing flights below what it cost to operate them
因此他们被强制停止该行为
So they were forced to stop
在美国的航空公司 随着一些新兴强势的廉价航司竞争者的出现
Airlines in the US, with some newly strong budget competitors,
现在也出现了类似的情况
are engaging in similar actions nowadays
以美国联航公司为例
United airlines for example,
众多航线中 从丹佛到芝加哥的航线上
is matching Frontier’s $ 40 fares on many days
该航司长期与拓荒者航司进行40美元的价格匹配
from Denver to Chicago, among other routes
仅仅为了维持他们在这条航线上的市场中心地位
in order to maintain their market stronghold in Denver and Chicago
尽管他们在这条航线上的成本明显高于拓荒者
Even though their cost to operate the route is drastically higher than Frontier,
导致他们几乎必然存在亏损
so they are almost certainly loosing money on those fares
但是回到纽约到洛杉矶这条航线上
But back to the New York to LA route
159美元是这条航线的最低常规运价
$159 is the lowest regular fare for this flight
129美元和144美元的价格则是基础经济舱的价格
The $ 129 and $ 144 price points were both basic economic fares
这是限制最多的舱位 不能选座
the most restrictive type with no seat selection,
不能携带行李而且不能改签或退票
no carry on bags and no changes or refunds.
每趟航班都有很多不同的舱位 每个舱位对应着一种运价代码
Every flight has a bunch of different booking classes each with a fare code
例如 从129到144美元的基础经济舱运价代码是B
For example, the basic economy fare code for the $ 129 and $ 144 price is “B”
但是159美元的票价运价代码则是N
but the $ 159 price books into fare code “N”
这些不同的票价类型有时被认为是价格投机
These different booking classes are sometimes known as fare buckets
本质上说航司会决定运价代码为N 以150美元出售的机票数量
Essentially the airline decides it’s going to sell a certain number of tickets
比如说10张
at the $159 price with fare code “N”, let’s say 10
当这些机票售出后
Then when those “N” tickets are sold,
航司会将出售运价代码为G 售价为204美元的票
the airline then sells economy at fare code G for 204
而当这些票售完之后 航司继续出售运价代码为V 售价为269美元的机票
then when those are sold, it sells economy at fare code V for $ 269
然后是运价代码为L 售价为318美元的机票 以此类推
and then fare code “L” for $ 318 and so on and so forth
当然也有一些情况
There are also some cases
票价无法遵循更昂贵的价格投机
where a ticket will default to a more expensive fare bucket
因为一些其他原因 而非低价机票售罄
because of reasons other than a lower fare selling out
许多价格 包括目前提到的各种价格
Many fares, including each mentioned so far,
都有提前购买出票的要求 这意味着
have advance purchase requirements meaning that
即使航班最后并未满员
even if a flight is not full at all,
机票价格也会因为越来越接近出发时间而越来越高
the price will increase closer to departure
所有价格低于204美元的机票都必须提前两周购买
All the fares below $ 204 have an advance purchase requirement of two weeks
这意味着 你只能在起飞前两周或更早以前购票
meaning that you can only purchase them more than two weeks before departure
而例如269美元的机票
While the $ 269 fare for example,
只需要提前一周购票
has an advance purchase requirement of only one week
但无提前购买要求的最低价机票
Although the cheapest fare without an advanced purchase requirement at all
即当天可以购买的最低价机票 就是运价代码为K机票价格为472美元的机票
that is, the cheapest fare that you could buy day-of for this flight is fare class K at $ 472
这就是经济舱的全价机票
which happens to be the most expensive economy class fare
现在在一些附加说明中
And now for some caveats,
机票价格并非只有这八大类
Not every fare for this flight is going to be priced at one of these eight prices
航空公司有相关机制来调整机票价格
Airlines have mechanisms to adjust fares from these buckets
在短期内 他们可以增加如燃油附加费的附加收费项来提高票价
In the short-term, they can adjust things like the fuel surcharge to raise the price
如其他因素 比如油价上涨了
if other factors, like oil prices increase
从长期看 公司可以调整这些不同运价代码下的
In the long term, they can adjust the actual prices
实际机票价格
of the different fare buckets.
航空公司经常在旺季如夏季提高基础票价
Airlines often increase the base fares for busy seasons like summer
美国航空确实就是这么做的
American Airlines does exactly that
以这条从纽约到洛杉矶的航线中运价代码为M的机票价格为例
on this New York to LA route where their fare class “M” for example,
票价在八月份将从357美元上涨至410美元
increases from $357 to $410in August
现在我们已经从微观角度分析了
But so far we’ve looked at this
同一航班的不同价格的差别 但是
on a micro level—how prices differ on one flight—but
我们也要从宏观角度分析
we also have to consider in the macro level
为什么如果你在2月6日星期二出发
Why if you leave on Tuesday February 6th
飞行2469英里到西边的洛杉矶
and fly 2469 miles to the west LA
仅需支付129美元 而你飞行3442英里
and you pay $ 129 while if you fly 3,442 miles
到东边的伦敦 仅仅只远一千英里
to the east to London—only a thousand miles further
你却要花费2772美元
than LA—you pay $2,772.
嗯 这第二个价格确实有一点迷惑性
Well, the second figure is a bit deceptive
因为这竟是一张单程票的价格
because that’s the price of a one-way ticket.
如果你改买去洛杉矶的
If you switch the LA flight to a
往返机票并在一周后返回票价则是
round-trip ticket returning a week later it will cost
257美元 完全是单程票价的两倍
$ 257—exactly double—while
而你如果改买前往伦敦的往返机票
if you turn the London flight into a round-trip returning
并于一周后返回票价将降到602美元 这个价格几乎是单程票价的五分之一
a week later the price will drop to $ 602—almost five times less.
这就是不可思议之处 一张单程票
This is understandably confusing—a one-way ticket
竟比往返机票价格更高
more expensive than a roundtrip
原因要回到运价代码
but the reason this is goes back to the fare codes.
每一种运价代码下都有一些
Embedded within each fare code are a bunch of
限制条件 它们告诉你在何种情况下可以使用对应的价格
little restrictions that dictate when you can use that fare.
在纽约到洛杉矶的航线中
On the New York to LA trip
这些限制条件就是票价的限定日期
those restrictions are just things like blackout dates for the fare
和提前购买的要求
and advance purchase requirements,
但是纽约到伦敦的机票有更多的限制且
but the New York to London ticket has loads more restrictions and
使单程票比往返机票更贵的限制是
the ones that make one-ways more expensive than round-trips
最短停留期限
are the minimum stay requirements.
这些要求限制了最快的返程时间
These requirements dictate how soon your return flight can be
这样才会有一个优惠价格
in order to get a particular fare.
这里有个存在价格歧视的观点
The idea is to price discriminate—business
差旅客人有能力所以他们要买价格更贵的机票
travelers should pay more because they can pay more.
航空公司会将价格最低的机票卖给旅行的客人
Meanwhile, airlines try to give the lowest prices to leisure travelers since
因为他们是自费的客人 所以他们
they’re the ones paying for their own tickets and therefore they’re the ones
是对价格最敏感的人群
that are the most price sensitive.
差旅客人通常希望能周末回家
Business travelers often want to be home for the weekend,
所以许多最短停留期限要求
so many of these minimum stay requirements,
比如运价代码为Q N S 的机票
like with fares Q, N, and S,
客人周日需要在目的地停留
just require a Sunday at your destination.
其他价格机票的限制条件里也包含着这条
Others, trying to accomplish the same thing,
要求停留七天 一整个星期的时间
require seven days, a full week, which would
也要求旅客在周末在目的地停留
also require a traveller to stay the weekendat their destination.
现在随着价格上涨限制条件会越发宽松
Now as the prices go up the requirements go down
所以当你购买2000美元左右的机票时
so once you get to paying around $ 2000
你仅仅停留三天即可
you can stay for as few as three days,
但没有最短停留期限要求的最便宜的往返基础票价
but the cheapest roundtrip base airfare
是经济舱机票的全价 价格是5544美元
with no stay requirement at all is $ 5,544 in fare class Y
这恰恰是单程票价的两倍
—exactly double the one way price.
所以这就解释了原因 单程票如此昂贵是因为
So that explains this—the one way ticket is so expensive because,
航空公司不知道旅客会在目的地停留多久
since the airline doesn’t know how long the traveller will stay at their destination
单程票需要预订
the one-way fare has to be booked
不含最短停留期限且
into the least restrictive fare class
限制最宽松的价格
without the minimum stay requirement.
你会发现这种差别取价的思想贯穿于所有的取价结构中
You’ll see this idea of price discriminationall over ticketing structures.
这是一个天才的定价概念
It’s a genius pricing concept that
它使人人都可以购买
allows different people to buy products at the prices
自己能够支付的起的机票 因此
they can afford and therefore
相同的产品可以卖给更多的人
it allows businesses to sell the same product to more people.
随着航班起飞时间的临近 机票价格也会越来越高
Tickets increase in price closer to departure
因为旅行的客人会提前购票
because leisure travelers buy tickets far-out
而商旅客人会在航班起飞前临时购票
and business travelers buy their tickets close to departure
并且可改期的机票价格更高
and flexible tickets are more expensive
因为商旅客人往往是需要改期的
because that’s what business travelers need,
但是还有另一种价格差异
but there’s another pricing difference
更不公平 这种差异存在于不同航线之间
going on that’s less fair—between routes.
这是业务竞争
It’s all about competition.
距离相同的不同航线
Different routes of the same distance
机票价格不同通常不是因为
cost different amounts generally not because
运营成本不同
they cost different amounts to operate,
而是取决于这条航线有多少竞争者
but because of how much the competitors are charging.
这就是为什么降落在小机场的航班都那么昂贵的部分原因
This is part of why flights into small airports are so
因为他们缺少竞争对手
expensive—because they lack competition.
飞行240英里从底特律到密西根州的佩尔斯顿
You can fly the 240 miles from Detroit to Pellston,
乘坐CRJ200型航班的费用是242美元
Michigan on a CRJ 200 for $ 242 or
飞行170英里从底特律到印第安纳的南本德
you can fly the 170 miles from Detroit to South Bend,Indiana
乘坐CRJ200机型航班仅需要76美元
on a CRJ 200 for $ 76.
唯一的区别是美国联航 达美航空 忠实航空均有航班
The only difference is that South Bend Airport has flights
飞往南本德机场
from United, Delta, and Allegiant
而只有达美航空的航班会飞往佩尔斯顿
while Pellston only has flights from Delta.
大西洋地区也有这样的情况
The same phenomenon happens over the Atlantic.
从纽约到洛杉矶的六小时直飞航线竞争比
There’s more competition on the six hour flight
从纽约到都柏林的六小时直飞航线的竞争
from New York to LA than on the six-hour flight
激烈得多
from New York to Dublin
所以你可以250美元买到前往洛杉矶的往返机票
so you can fly to LA for $ 250 round trip
却要花500美元购买前往都柏林的往返机票
while Dublin cost $500 round trip.
当然 从纽约到洛杉矶旅客还可以自驾
Of course, travelers from New York to LA can drive,
坐巴士 坐火车
take the bus, take the train,
或乘坐转机航班前往
or take a flight connecting halfway there
但前往都柏林 旅客只有一个选择 坐飞机
or travelers to Dublin only have one choice—to fly.
总之 事实是价格会反映人们的消费偏好
In all, the truth is that prices reflect what people will pay
因此人们会购买某个特定价格的机票
and so people will pay what flights are priced.
如果你是一个像我一样繁忙的人
If you’re a busy person like me,
你就知道健康饮食是困难的
you know that eating healthy can be difficult.
有时候你似乎是
Sometimes it seems
有两种选择——快餐
like you have two choices—quick food
或健康的食物 但是你还有另一种选择
or healthy food—but you have another one:
省时又健康的食物 这就是蓝色围裙的目标
quick and healthy food because that’s what Blue Apron is.
蓝色围裙会每周向你运送一些盒子
Blue Apron ships you boxes every week
里面装着分配好的新鲜食材
with farm-fresh pre-apportioned ingredients
和食谱让你能够在四十分钟内
and recipes that let you make these delicious,
轻松烹制美味健康的食物
healthy meals in at the very most 40 minutes.
我最近在做五香猪肉和韩国年糕餐
I recently made the Spicy Pork and Korean Rice Cakes meal
它们美味又省时
which was delicious and quick.
在蓝色围裙 你一定可以获得你真正想要的
With Blue Apron, you’re sure to get stuff that you’ll actually like
因为他们每周都会提供八道不同的食谱
because they have a selection of eight different recipes
供你选择
each week from which you can pick.
所有食材均采用冷藏包寄送
All the ingredients arrive in a refrigerated bag,
能够送达全美几乎所有的地区
ship to most everywhere in the US,
仅需8.99美元 或10.99美元即可进行配送
and start at just $8.99/10.99 per serving.
我强烈推荐你尝试蓝色围裙
I highly recommend you try Blue Apron out
好消息是你可以
and the good news is that you can try out
免费领取三份餐食 点击底部链接即可获得
three meals for free at the link in that description