我将会谈谈人工智能和人类如何能够共存
I’m going to talk abouthow AI and mankind can coexist,
但首先 我们需要重新思考人类价值观
but first, we have to rethinkabout our human values.
所以首先让我坦白我价值观中曾有的错误
So let me first make a confession about my errors in my values.
那是1991年12月16日11点
It was 11 o’clock, December 16, 1991.
我即将首次成为父亲
I was about to become a fatherfor the first time.
我的妻子 先铃
My wife, Shen-Ling,lay in the hospital bed
躺在病床上经历着一段艰辛并为时12小时的分娩
going through a very difficult12-hour labor.
我坐在床边
I sat by her bedside
但却焦虑地望着我的手表
but looked anxiously at my watch,
而我知道一些她不知道的事
and I knew something that she didn’t.
我知道如果在一小时内
I knew that if in one hour, our child did
我们的孩子还未出生 我将要将她留在那里
n’t come, I was going to leave her there and
赶去上班 并向我的老板 苹果的首席执行官
go back to work and make a presentation about AI
做一个有关人工智能的报告
to my boss, Apple’s CEO. Fortunately,
幸运的是 我的女儿在11:30出生了–
my daughterwas born at 11:30 —
（笑声）
(Laughter)
（掌声）
(Applause)
让我免做荒唐事
sparing me from doing the unthinkable,
而一直到今天 我非常惭愧曾经
and to this day, I am so sorry
把工作摆在家庭前面
for letting my work ethic take precedence over love for my family.
（掌声）但是
(Applause)
我做的人工智能报告非常成功
My AI talk, however, went off brilliantly.
（笑声）
(Laughter)
苹果喜欢我的工作成果 并决定在TED1992
Apple loved my workand decided to announce it
会议上将其宣布 26年前就在这个舞台上
at TED1992, 26 years ago on this very stage.
我以为我完成了人工智能领域
I thought I had made one of the biggest,
一个最重大的发现
most important discoveries in AI,
第二天《华尔街日报》也是这么认为
and so did the”Wall Street Journal”on the following day.
但随着越来越多的发现
But as far as discoveries went,
结果是 我并没有发现印度或是美洲
it turned out, I didn’t discover India, or America.
或许我发现的是葡萄牙附近的一个小岛
Perhaps I discovereda little island off of Portugal.
但是人工智能的发现时代持续了下去
But the AI era of discovery continued,
而越来越多的科学家全心全意投入其中
and more scientistspoured their souls into it.
大约10年前 三名北美科学家
About 10 years ago, the grand AI discovery
做出了重大的人工智能发现
was made by threeNorth American scientists,
那就是深度学习
and it’s known as deep learning.
深度学习是一个
Deep learning is a technology that
能利用
can take a huge amount of data
海量数据 在单一领域中 学会做超高精确度的预测或决策的技术例如
within one single domain and learn to predict or decide at superhuman accuracy.
如果我们向深度学习网络显示
For example, if we showthe deep learning network
海量的食物照片
a massive number of food photos,
它可以辨认出食物 比如热狗或不是热狗
it can recognize food such as hot dog or no hot dog.
(掌声)
(Applause)
若如果我们
Or if we show it many
向它显示许多
pictures and videos and sensor data
在高速公路上开车的照片、视频和传感数据
from driving on the highway,
它其实可以把车开得像
it can actually drive a car as well
人一样好
as a human being
行驶在高速公路上
on the highway.
若我们向这深度学习网络显示
And what if we showedthis deep learning network
特朗普总统发表过的所有演讲呢？
all the speeches made by President Trump?
那么这个人工智能的特朗普总统
Then this artificiallyintelligent President Trump,
其实是该网络
actually the network —
–（笑声）可以
(Laughter)
—
can —
（掌声）
(Applause)
你们喜欢一语双关的话
You like double oxymorons, huh?
对吧？
(Laughter)
（笑声）（掌声）
(Applause)
所以此网络
So this network,
若被要求发表一场关于人工智能的演讲
if given the request to make a speech about AI, he,
他 或它 或许会说
or it, might say —
–（录音）特朗普：运用人工智能来建造
(Recording) Donald Trump:It’s a great thing
一个更完美的世界是件大好事李开复：
to build a better worldwith artificial intelligence.
或许用另一种语言来说？
Kai-Fu Lee: And maybe in another language? DT:
特朗普（讲中文）：人工智能正在改变世界
(Speaking Chinese)
（笑声）
(Laughter) KFL:
你们不知道他会说中文吧？
You didn’t knowhe knew Chinese, did you?
所以深度学习已成为人工智能
So deep learning has become the core
发现时代的核心
in the era of AI discovery,
并由美国领导着
and that’s led by the US.
但我们现在身处实践时代
But we’re now in the eraof implementation,
真正关键的是执行力、产品质量、
where what really matters is execution,product quality, speed and data.
速度和数据这就是中国上场的时候了
And that’s where China comes in.
中国企业家 我作为风险投资人提供他们资本
Chinese entrepreneurs, who I fund as a venture capitalist,
他们是非凡的实干者
are incredible workers, amazing work ethic.
工作拼命我在产房的例子与中国人的工作
My example in the delivery room is nothing
卖力程度相比根本不算什么
compared to how hard people work in China.
例如 有个创业公司声称能工作生活平衡：
As an example, one startuptried to claim work-life balance:
“加入我们吧 因为我们是996 ”
“Come work for us because we are 996.”
那是什么意思？
And what does that mean?
那是指工作时间从上午9点至晚上9点，一周工作6天
It means the work hours of 9am to 9pm, six days a week.
每周六天这与其他实施997的创业公司形成对比
That’s contrastedwith other startups that do 997.
中国产品的质量在
And the Chinese product qualityhas consistently gone up
过去十年中持续提升 这归功于极其激烈的竞争环境在硅谷
in the past decade, and that’s because of a fiercely competitive environment.
企业家用非常绅士的方式来竞争
In Silicon Valley, entrepreneurscompete in a very gentlemanly fashion,
有点像是旧时的战争
sort of like in old wars
双方轮流向对方
in which each side took turns
开火
to fire at each other.
（笑声）
(Laughter)
但在中国的环境里
But in the Chinese environment,
它真的是一场不死不休的角斗士之战
it’s truly a gladiatorialfight to the death.
在如此残酷的环境里 企业家学会如何迅速成长
In such a brutal environment,entrepreneurs learn to grow very rapidly,
他们学会如何雷厉风行地改进产品
they learn to make their productsbetter at lightning speed,
他们学会如何完善其商业模式
and they learnto hone their business models
直至坚不可摧结果是
until they’re impregnable.
优秀的中国产品 如微信和微博
As a result, great Chinese productslike WeChat and Weibo
可以说比脸书和推特等同类美国产品更好
are arguably better than the equivalent American products from Facebook and Twitter.
中国市场欢迎这种变化
And the Chinese marketembraces this change
并进一步加速变化和转型
and accelerated changeand paradigm shifts.
比如说 如果你们中任何人去中国
As an example, if any of you go to China,
你将会看到它几乎是无现金和无信用卡社会
you will see it’s almost cashlessand credit card-less,
因为我们都在讨论的那件事
because that thing that we alltalk about, mobile payment,
移动支付在中国已成为现实
has become the reality in China.
在过去一年
In the last year,
18.8万亿美金通过移动网络完成交易
18.8 trillion US dollars were transacted on mobile internet,
而这归功于支撑其项背的强劲
and that’s becauseof very robust technologies
科技
built behind it.
它甚至大过中国的国内生产总值
It’s even bigger than the China GDP.
而此技术
And this technology, you can say,
你可以说它怎么会大过国内生产总值？
how can it be bigger than the GDP?
这是因为它包括了所有交易： 批发、渠道、零售、网上、离线
Because it includes all transactions: wholesale, channels,retail, online, offline,
去大商场或去这样的农贸市场
going into a shopping mall or going into a farmers market like this.
这项技术被7亿人用来互相支付
The technology is usedby 700 million people
不仅局限于商家
to pay each other, not just merchants,
所以它是点对点的 而它几乎是无手续费的
so it’s peer to peer, and it’s almost transaction-fee-free.
它是即时的
And it’s instantaneous,
被到处使用
and it’s used everywhere.
最后一点 中国市场十分巨大
And finally, the China market is enormous.
市场庞大
This market is large,
帮助了企业家获得更多用户、
which helps give entrepreneurs more users, more revenue,
更高收入、更多投资
more investment, but most importantly,
但最重要的它给了企业家一个收集
it gives the entrepreneurs a chance
海量数据的机会
to collect a huge amount of data
这成为了人工智能引擎的燃料结果
which becomes rocket fuelfor the AI engine.
中国人工智能公司
So as a result, the Chinese AI companies
已往前飞跃 所以如今 在电脑视觉、
have leaped ahead so that today, the most valuable companies
语音识别、 语音合成、
in computer vision, speech recognition,
机器翻译和无人机领域中 最具价值的公司都
speech synthesis,machine translation and drones
是中国公司
are all Chinese companies.
所以随着美国引领发现时代
So with the US leadingthe era of discovery
和中国引领实践时代
and China leadingthe era of implementation,
我们正处于一个伟大时代
we are now in an amazing age
两个超级大国的双联引擎
where the dual engineof the two superpowers
正合作共进 驱动我们人类从未见过的
are working together to drive the fastestrevolution in technology
最迅速的科技革命
that we have ever seen as humans.
这将会带来极大的财富、
And this will bring tremendous wealth,
前所未有的财富： 据普华永道估计 到2030年
unprecedented wealth: 16 trillion dollars, according to PwC,
人工智能将带来16万亿美元的全球GDP增长
in terms of added GDPto the worldwide GDP by 2030.
它也将带来巨大挑战
It will also bring immense challenges
在可能出现的失业再就业问题上
in terms of potential job replacements.
在工业革命时代
Whereas in the Industrial Age
它创造了更多工作
it created more jobs
因为手工工匠的工作被分解成
because craftsman jobs were being decomposed
生产线上的各种工作
into jobs in the assembly line,
所以创造了更多工作
so more jobs were created.
但是人工智能让流水线上的个体工作
But AI completely replacesthe individual jobs
完全被机器人取代
in the assembly line with robots.
这不仅发生在工厂里 而且货车司机、
And it’s not just in factories, but truckers, drivers
驾驶员甚至于像是电话销售、
and even jobs like telesales,customer service
客服、血液科和放射科医生的工作
and hematologists as well as radiologists
在未来的15年内
over the next 15 years
都将慢慢被人工智能
are going to be gradually replaced
取代
by artificial intelligence.
而只有创造性工作–
And only the creative jobs —
（笑声）
(Laughter)
我必须保护我自己
I have to make myself safe, right? Really,
对吧？真的 创造性工作是有保障的工作
the creative jobsare the ones that are protected,
因为人工智能可以优化但不能创造
because AI can optimize but not create.
但比失去工作更严重的是失去
But what’s more seriousthan the loss of jobs
意义
is the loss of meaning,
因为工业革命时代的工作伦理
because the work ethic in the Industrial Age
已让我们洗脑
has brainwashed us
相信工作赋予我们存在的理由
into thinking that work is the reason we exist,
工作赋予我们生活的意义
that work definedthe meaning of our lives.
而我就是个典型并自愿接受那种工作狂思想的受害者
And I was a prime and willing victim to that type of workaholic thinking.
我工作异常努力
I worked incredibly hard.
那就是为什么我几乎将我的妻子独自留在产房内
That’s why I almost leftmy wife in the delivery room,
那就是为什么我996地与企业家们工作
that’s why I worked 996alongside my entrepreneurs.
我对工作的痴迷在几年前戛然而止
And that obsession that I had with work
因为我被
ended abruptly a few years ago
确诊患上 第四期淋巴瘤
when I was diagnosedwith fourth stage lymphoma.
这个PET扫描显示二十多个恶性肿瘤
The PET scan here showsover 20 malignant tumors
如火球般喷涌而出
jumping out like fireballs,
把我的壮志雄心付之一炬
melting away my ambition.
但更重要的是 它帮我重新审视我的人生
But more importantly, it helped me reexamine my life.
知道我可能只剩下几个月的生命
Knowing that I may only havea few months to live
令我看清
caused me to see how foolish it was
把自我价值完全建立在
for me to base my entire self-worth
工作强度和工作成就上是多么愚蠢
on how hard I workedand the accomplishments from hard work.
我生活中的优先级完全本末倒置
My priorities werecompletely out of order.
我疏于关心家庭
I neglected my family.
我的父亲过世了
My father had passed away,
我从没机会告诉他我爱他
and I never had a chance to tell him I loved him.
我的母亲失智了 再也认不出我
My mother had dementiaand no longer recognized me,
我的孩子们都已长大成人
and my children had grown up.
在我化疗期间 我读了邦妮·韦尔的一本书
During my chemotherapy, I read a book by Bronnie Ware
写的是人们濒死时的心愿和懊悔
who talked about dying wishes and regrets of the people in the deathbed.
她发现面对死亡时
She found that facing death,
没人遗憾自己工作得不够努力
nobody regretted that they didn’twork hard enough in this life.
他们只后悔自己
They only regretted
没花更多时间与所爱之人相伴相守
that they didn’t spend enough time with their loved ones
后悔没有传递自己的爱
and that they didn’t spread their love.
值得庆幸的是 我的病情现在有所缓解
So I am fortunately today in remission.
（掌声）
(Applause)
所以我可以重回TED舞台
So I can be back at TED again to share
和你们分享我的改变
with you that I have changed my ways.
我如今只工作965
I now only work 965 —
–偶尔996 但通常965
occasionally 996, but usually 965.
我搬到离母亲更近的住所
I moved closer to my mother,
我妻子通常与我相伴旅行
my wife usually travels with me,
当我的孩子们休假时
and when my kids have vacation,
若他们不回家 我会去看他们
if they don’t come home, I go to them.
这种新生活方式帮我认清
So it’s a new form of life
爱对我来说是多么
that helped me recognize how important it is
重要
that love is for me,
濒死经历改变了我的生活
and facing deathhelped me change my life,
而且让我重新审视
but it also helped me see a new way
人工智能应如何影响人类
of how AI should impact mankind
影响工作
and work and coexist with mankind,
与人共存确实 人工智能正带走很多重复性工作
that really, AI is taking awaya lot of routine jobs,
但我们并非因为擅长重复性工作而为人
but routine jobs are not what we’re about.
我们存在的理由是爱
Why we exist is love.
当我们怀抱新生儿
When we hold our newborn baby,
当我们一见钟情 当我们助人于难
love at first sight, or when we help someone in need,
唯独人类才能爱与被爱
humans are uniquely able to give and receive love,
爱使我们有别于人工智能
and that’s what differentiates us from AI.
无论科幻电影如何描述
Despite what science fiction may portray,
我可以负责任地告诉你 人工智能程序没有爱的能力
I can responsibly tell youthat AI has no love.
当阿法狗围棋打败世界冠军柯洁时
When AlphaGo defeatedthe world champion Ke Jie,
柯洁哭着并爱着围棋
while Ke Jie was cryingand loving the game of go,
但阿法狗无法从胜利中感受到喜悦
AlphaGo felt no happiness from winning
也不会渴望拥抱一个心爱的人
and certainly no desireto hug a loved one.
那我们如何在人工智能时代中
So how do we differentiate ourselves
将自己作为人类区分出来？
as humans in the age of AI?
我们谈到过创造性维度
We talked about the axis of creativity,
那当然是一个可能性
and certainly that is one possibility,
现在我们要介绍一个新维度
and now we introduce a new axis
称之为同情心、
that we can call compassion,love, or empathy.
爱或同理心 那些都是人工智能做不到的事
Those are things that AI cannot do.
当人工智能带走重复性工作时
So as AI takes away the routine jobs,
我想我们可以、
I like to think we can,
应该而且必须创造关爱型工作
we should and we must create jobs of compassion.
你或许会问那种工作到底有多少？
You might ask how many of those there are,
但我想问问你：
but I would ask you:
你不认为
Do you not think
我们将需要许多社工
that we are going to need a lot of social workers
来帮助我们平稳过渡吗？
to help us make this transition?
你不认为我们需要许多富有同情心的看护
Do you not think we needa lot of compassionate caregivers
来为更多人提供更多医疗护理吗？
to give more medical care to more people?
你不认为我们
Do you not think we’re
将需要多10倍的老师
going to need 10 times more teachers
来帮助孩子们寻找
to help our children find their way
在这个勇敢新世界里的生存和成长之道吗？
to survive and thrivein this brave new world?
有了新获得的财富
And with all the newfound wealth,
我们不应该创造以人性关爱为本的工作
should we not also makelabors of love into careers
把老人护工或在家
and let elderly accompaniment
教育变成工作种类吗？
or homeschooling become careers also?
（掌声）
(Applause)
这个图表不甚完美
This graph is surely not perfect,
但展示了四种我们与人工智能共事的方式
but it points at four ways that we can work with AI.
1、人工智能将代替我们承担重复性工作
AI will come and take awaythe routine jobs
到时候我们将甚感欣慰
and in due time, we will be thankful.
2、人工智能将成为创造者的好工具
AI will become great toolsfor the creatives
所以科学家、艺术家、音乐家和作家
so that scientists, artists,musicians and writers
能变得更有创造力
can be even more creative.
3、人工智能将作为分析工具与人共事
AI will work with humansas analytical tools
人类将温暖倾注于高
that humans can wrap their warmth around
同情性工作
for the high-compassion jobs.
4、我们可以区分自己
And we can always differentiate ourselves
通过独特擅长的工作 兼具同情心和创造性
with the uniquely capable jobs that are both compassionate and creative,
充分利用我们独一无二的头脑和内心这就是：
using and leveragingour irreplaceable brains and hearts.
人类与人工智能共存的蓝图
So there you have it: a blueprint of coexistence for humans and AI.
人工智能的发展是机缘巧合
AI is serendipity.
它的到来将把我们从常规工作中解放出来
It is here to liberate usfrom routine jobs,
它的到来也提醒我们人因何为人
and it is here to remind us what it is that makes us human.
所以让我们选择拥抱人工智能并互相关爱
So let us choose to embrace AI and to love one another.
谢谢
Thank you.
（掌声）
(Applause)