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用前所未有的好方法诠释数字统计

Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you've ever seen

一年一度…
Once a year…
1000个非凡的人聚集在加利福尼亚 蒙特利
1000 remarkable people gather in Monterey, California
来交换一些无价之宝
to exchange something of incalculable value
他们的思想
Their ideas
这些观点从未被分享
What happens there has never been shared
…直到现在
…until now
大约10年前 我教瑞典大学生
About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development
全球化进程
to Swedish undergraduate students.
那是我在非洲和非洲机构一起耗费20年
That was after having spent about 20 years
来研究饥饿问题之后的事了
together with African institutions studying hunger in Africa,
所以我算是个对世界小有了解的专家
so I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.
我开始在医科大学——卡罗林斯卡学院
And I started in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,
开设一门本科课程 叫全球健康
an undergraduate course called Global Health.
但真到那个时候 你会有点紧张
But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous.
我想 这些到我们这里的学生
I thought, these students coming to us
事实上都有最好的成绩 你可以在瑞典教务系统中查到
actually have the highest grade you can get in Swedish college systems —
所以我想 也许我要教的东西他们都知道
so I thought, maybe they know everything I’m going to teach them about.
所以开学的时候我做了个先期测试
So I did a pre-test when they came.
我感想最多的一个问题就是这个
And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:
“以下五对当中哪个国家的儿童死亡率最高”
“Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?”
我把它们放在一起 这样每对国家中
I put them together, so that in each pair of country,
一个国家的儿童死亡率是另一个的两倍
one has twice the child mortality of the other.
那就是说两者的差异性远大于
And this means that it’s much bigger a difference
数据的不确定性
than the uncertainty of the data.
我不是在这里考你们 土耳其
I won’t put you at a test here, but it’s Turkey,
儿童死亡率最高 随后依次是波兰 俄罗斯 巴基斯坦和南非
which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.
这是瑞典学生的测验结果
And these were the results of the Swedish students.
我处理了一下就得到了置信区间 它非常窄 我挺高兴
I did it so I got the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow, and I got happy,
当然 五个里只对了1.8个
of course: a 1.8 right answer out of five possible.
说明确实需要国际健康学教授
That means that there was a place for a professor of international health
也需要我的课程
and for my course.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
但之后的一天晚上 当我整理成绩单的时候
But one late night, when I was compiling the report,
我真正意识到我的发现
I really realized my discovery.
这个发现告诉我 统计意义上来说瑞典的好学生
I have been shown that Swedish top students
对世界的了解远低于黑猩猩
know statistically significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
因为黑猩猩能对一半
Because the chimpanzee would score half right
如果我给它们两个分别标着斯里兰卡和土耳其的香蕉
if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey.
它们会选对一半 但那些学生却不行
They would be right half of the cases. But the students are not there.
这个问题是我无法忽视 却可以预见的
The problem for me was not ignorance; it was preconceived ideas.
我还做了个不大道德的研究
I did also an unethical study
对卡罗林斯卡学院的教授做了研究
of the professors of the Karolinska Institute,
而他们还颁发诺贝尔医学奖
that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,
他们的结果和黑猩猩平分秋色
and they are on par with the chimpanzee there.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
这就是我觉得需要交流的地方
This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate,
这些全球性事件
because the data of what’s happening in the world
和各国儿童健康情况的数据十分明确
and the child health of every country is very well aware.
我们制作这个软件 像这样
We did this software which displays it like this:
这里的每个球表示一个国家
every bubble here is a country.
这里的这个国家是中国
This country over here is China.
这是印度
This is India.
球的大小表示人口数量
The size of the bubble is the population,
我把生育率放在这个轴上
and on this axis here, I put fertility rate.
这里是我的学生的一些说法
Because my students, what they said
当他们看这个世界时 我问他们
when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,
你们怎么看这个世界?
“What do you really think about the world?”
嗯 我第一次发现教科书基本就是《丁丁历险记》
Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
他们说 世界就是“我们”和“他们”
And they said, “The world is still ‘we’ and ‘them.’
“我们”是西方世界 “他们”是第三世界
And ‘we’ is Western world and ‘them’ is Third World.”
我问 你说的西方世界是什么
“And what do you mean with Western world?” I said.
嗯 就是人的寿命长 家庭小
“Well, that’s long life and small family,
第三世界就是人的寿命短 家庭大
and Third World is short life and large family.”
这就是我要展示的
So this is what I could display here.
我把生育率放在这儿 每个母亲孩子的个数
I put fertility rate here: number of children per woman:
一个 两个 三个 四个 到每个母亲八个孩子
one, two, three, four, up to about eight children per woman.
我们有从1962年或1960年前后开始
We have very good data since 1962 — 1960 about —
所有国家中家庭规模的数据
on the size of families in all countries.
误差范围很小
The error margin is narrow.
我把出生时预期寿命在这里
Here, I put life expectancy at birth,
从一些国家的30岁 到70岁
from 30 years in some countries up to about 70 years.
在1962年 这里的确有一些国家
And 1962, there was really a group of countries here
那是工业化国家
that was industrialized countries,
他们的家庭小 人的寿命长
and they had small families and long lives.
这些是发展中国家
And these were the developing countries:
他们有庞大的家庭 以及相对短的寿命
they had large families and they had relatively short lives.
1962年后发生了什么? 我们想看看这些变化
Now, what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change.
这些学生对吗? 还是只有两类国家?
Are the students right? Is it still two types of countries?
或者这些发展中国家家庭变小 移到这里
Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?
又或者他们寿命变长 上移到这里?
Or have they got longer lives and live up there?
来看看 我们先让世界停止
Let’s see. We stopped the world then.
这是从联合国得到的统计资料
This is all U.N. statistics that have been available.
我们开始 看到了吗?
Here we go. Can you see there?
这是中国 移动反映了健康情况在变好 (最后)上移到那里
It’s China there, moving against better health there, improving there.
所有绿色的拉美国家向家庭变小的方向移动
All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.
这些黄色的是阿拉伯国家
Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries,
他们的寿命在变长 但家庭并没有变大
and they get longer life, but not larger families.
这些绿色的是非洲人 他们还待在这里
The Africans are the green here. They still remain here.
这是印度 印度尼西亚移动得非常快
This is India; Indonesia is moving on pretty fast.
[笑声] 80年代的时候 孟加拉国仍然和非洲国家在一起
(Laughter) In the ’80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries.
但现在 在80年代时孟加拉国发生天翻地覆的变化
But now, Bangladesh — it’s a miracle that happens in the ’80s:
阿訇们开始推行计划生育
the imams start to promote family planning.
他们移到了角落里
They move up into that corner.
在90年代 严重的HIV流行病爆发
And in the ’90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic
降低了非洲国家的预期寿命
that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries
幸存者上移到了角落里
and all the rest of them move up into the corner,
在这里寿命长而家庭小 我们来到一个新的世界
where we have long lives and small family, and we have a completely new world.
[掌声]
(Applause)
[掌声停止]
(Applause ends)
我来对美国和越南
Let me make a comparison directly
做一个直接的比较
between the United States of America and Vietnam.
1964年
1964.
美国的家庭小而人的寿命长
America had small families and long life;
越南的家庭大而人的寿命短
Vietnam had large families and short lives.
但发生下面的变化
And this is what happens:
战争期间的数据表明即使考虑死亡
the data during the war indicate that even with all the death,
预期寿命仍在增长
there was an improvement of life expectancy.
到年底的时候 越南开始施行计划生育
By the end of the year, the family planning started in Vietnam;
他们的家庭在变小
they went for smaller families.
而在上方的美国 其人均寿命变长
And the United States up there is getting for longer life,
而家庭大小不变
keeping family size.
在80年代 他们放弃了计划经济
And in the ’80s now, they give up Communist planning
转而施行市场经济
and they go for market economy,
它移动得比社会发展还要快
and it moves faster even than social life.
今天 我们可以看到
And today, we have in Vietnam
越南的预期寿命和家庭规模
the same life expectancy and the same family size
这里是2003年的越南
here in Vietnam, 2003,
和1974年战后的美国一样
as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.
我觉得如果我们没有看到这些数据
I think we all if we don’t look in the data,
我们都会低估亚洲发生的巨大变化
we all underestimate the tremendous change in Asia,
在我们看到经济领域的变化之前 这些变化已经在社会领域发生了
which was in social change before we saw the economical change.
我们来换一种方式 我们将展示
Let’s move over to another way here in which we could display
世界范围内的收入分布情况
the distribution in the world of the income.
这是世界人口收入分布
This is the world distribution of income of people.
每天一美元 10美元或100美元
One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.
富裕和贫穷之间没有间隔 这是个神话
There’s no gap between rich and poor any longer. This is a myth.
这里有一个小峰
There’s a little hump here.
但一直是这些人
But there are people all the way.
我们看看收入的结果
And if we look where the income ends up,
这是100%的世界年收入
this is 100 percent the world’s annual income.
最富裕的20%的人
And the richest 20 percent,
他们占了大约74%
they take out of that about 74 percent.
最贫穷的20%的人只占了2%
And the poorest 20 percent, they take about two percent.
这表明发展中国家这个概念
And this shows that the concept of developing countries
极其值得怀疑
is extremely doubtful.
我们可以考虑一下援助
We think about aid,
比如这些人给这些人援助
like these people here giving aid to these people here.
但大部分的世界人口处在中间
But in the middle, we have most of the world population,
他们现在只占有24%的收入
and they have now 24 percent of the income.
换种说法 这些是什么国家
We heard it in other forms. And who are these?
不同的国家在什么地方 我来展示一下非洲
Where are the different countries? I can show you Africa.
这是非洲
This is Africa.
占世界10%的人口 大多数人处于贫困
10% the world population, most in poverty.
这是OECD
This is OECD.
富裕国家 联合国的国家俱乐部
The rich country. The country club of the U.N.
他们都在这边 非洲和OECD有相当一部分重叠在一起
And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.
这是拉美
And this is Latin America.
在拉美 从最贫穷的到最富裕的都有
It has everything on this Earth, from the poorest to the richest in Latin America.
在上面 可以放上东欧
And on top of that, we can put East Europe,
放上东亚 和南亚
we can put East Asia, and we put South Asia.
如果时间倒流 它会是什么样子
And how did it look like if we go back in time,
比如1970年
to about 1970?
多了一个峰
Then there was more of a hump.
大多数生活绝对贫困的是亚洲人
And we have most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.
亚洲的贫困问题是个世界性问题
The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia.
现在如果我把时间向前推进
And if I now let the world move forward,
可以看到 随着人口的增长
you will see that while population increases,
上亿亚洲人脱离贫困
there are hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty
而一些其他地区陷入贫困
and some others getting into poverty,
这是今天的样子
and this is the pattern we have today.
世界银行的最新预测
And the best projection from the World Bank
表明这会发生
is that this will happen,
我们将不再有一个分化的世界
and we will not have a divided world.
绝大部分的人会在中间
We’ll have most people in the middle.
当然这是个对数坐标轴
Of course it’s a logarithmic scale here,
但我们的经济指标按百分比增长
but our concept of economy is growth with percent.
可以看作按百分比增长
We look upon it as a possibility of percentile increase.
如果我改一下这里 用人均GDP代替家庭收入
If I change this, and take GDP per capita instead of family income,
我把这些数据
and I turn these individual data
与各地区的GDP关联起来
into regional data of gross domestic product,
把地区放在下面
and I take the regions down here,
球的大小还是人口规模
the size of the bubble is still the population.
可以看到OECD在那里 撒哈拉以南非洲在那里
And you have the OECD there, and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,
我把阿拉伯地区放在这里
and we take off the Arab states there,
从非洲和亚洲单独分出来
coming both from Africa and from Asia, and we put them separately,
然后我们把X轴延伸一下 再加上一个新的坐标轴
and we can expand this axis, and I can give it a new dimension here,
加上社会价值参数 儿童生存率
by adding the social values there, child survival.
把财富放在那个轴上
Now I have money on that axis,
把儿童存活率的估值在这里
and I have the possibility of children to survive there.
在一些国家 活到五岁的儿童是99.7%
In some countries, 99.7% of children survive to five years of age;
另一些只有70%
others, only 70.
在这里 似乎在OECD和
And here, it seems, there is a gap between OECD,
拉美 东欧 东亚
Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,
阿拉伯地区 南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲之处存在分化
Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
儿童成活率和经济之间线性关系极强
The linearity is very strong between child survival and money.
我把撒哈拉以南非洲打散
But let me split sub-Saharan Africa.
那是健康 越往上越健康
Health is there and better health is up there.
在这里我把撒哈拉以南非洲按国家分开
I can go here and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.
它爆开
And when it burst,
各个国家球的大小是人口的规模
the size of its country bubble is the size of the population.
塞拉利昂在这下面 毛里求斯在这上面
Sierra Leone down there. Mauritius is up there.
毛里求斯是第一个
Mauritius was the first country
摆脱贸易壁垒的国家 他们可以出售他们的糖
to get away with trade barriers, and they could sell their sugar —
他们可以出售他们的纺织品
they could sell their textiles —
和欧洲与北美的人享受同样的待遇
on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America.
同样在非洲却完全不同 加纳在这里 在中间的位置
There’s a huge difference between Africa. And Ghana is here in the middle.
在塞拉利昂 需要人道主义援助
In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.
在乌干达 需要发展援助
Here in Uganda, development aid.
这儿需要投资 在那儿却可以度假
Here, time to invest; there, you can go for a holiday.
非洲内部存在巨大的差异
It’s a tremendous variation within Africa
我们几乎不讲平均主义
which we rarely often make — that it’s equal everything.
下面分解南亚各国 印度是中间的蓝色大球
I can split South Asia here. India’s the big bubble in the middle.
而斯里兰卡和阿富汗有着巨大差异
But a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
我来分解阿拉伯地区 会怎么样
I can split Arab states. How are they?
相同的气候 相同的文化 相同的宗教 巨大的差异
Same climate, same culture, same religion — huge difference.
甚至是邻国(也有巨大的差距)
Even between neighbors.
也门 内战
Yemen, civil war.
阿联酋对财富的使用非常好
United Arab Emirates, money, which was quite equally and well used.
与传说的完全不同
Not as the myth is.
这些包括了所有国内
And that includes all the children of the foreign workers
外籍劳工的子女
who are in the country.
数据常常出乎意料 而许多人会说数据十分槽糕
Data is often better than you think. Many people say data is bad.
这有一个不确定的边界 但可以看出不同
There is an uncertainty margin, but we can see the difference here:
柬埔寨 新加坡
Cambodia, Singapore.
差距远大于数据的误差
The differences are much bigger than the weakness of the data.
东欧 苏联经济持续了相当长的时间
East Europe: Soviet economy for a long time,
但它们离开10年后 一切都完全不同了
but they come out after 10 years very, very differently.
在拉美
And there is Latin America.
今天 我们不用到古巴
Today, we don’t have to go to Cuba
去找拉美的健康国家
to find a healthy country in Latin America.
几年前开始 智利的儿童死亡率就低于古巴
Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within some few years from now.
这里 有OECD的高收入国家
Here, we have high-income countries in the OECD.
我们得到了世界的所有模式
And we get the whole pattern here of the world,
或多或少与这个相似
which is more or less like this.
看着它 世界会怎么样
And if we look at it, how the world looks,
在1960年 开始变化
in 1960, it starts to move.
1960年(中国有)毛泽东 他给中国带来了健康
This is Mao Tse-tung. He brought health to China.
之后他去世了
And then he died.
然后邓小平给中国带来了财富
And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China,
把中国再次带入主流
and brought them into the mainstream again.
我们可以看到这些国家在不同方向上如何移动 像这样
And we have seen how countries move in different directions like this,
举出一个具体国家有些困难
so it’s sort of difficult to get an example country
但可以显示世界的总体趋势
which shows the pattern of the world.
但我想把你们带到这里 在1960年
But I would like to bring you back to about here, at 1960.
我想比较一下
I would like to compare
韩国 就是这个 和巴西 就是这个
South Korea, which is this one, with Brazil, which is this one.
那个标签找不着了
The label went away for me here.
我还想比较一下乌干达 在这里
And I would like to compare Uganda, which is there.
我让它向前运行 像这样
And I can run it forward, like this.
可以看到韩国的进步有多快
And you can see how South Korea is making a very, very fast advancement,
相反巴西就十分缓慢
whereas Brazil is much slower.
我们再回到过去 画出每个球运动的轨迹
And if we move back again, here, and we put on trails on them, like this,
可以再次看到发展的速度
you can see again that the speed of development
非常不同
is very, very different,
这些移动或快或慢国家 在财富和健康方向的移动速度相同
and the countries are moving more or less in the same rate as money and health,
但似乎可以感觉到
but it seems you can move much faster
健康程度高的国家比财富多的国家移动更快
if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first.
为了说明这一点 可以看看阿联酋
And to show that, you can put on the way of United Arab Emirates.
他们从这里出发 一个资源型国家
They came from here, a mineral country.
他们把所有石油贮藏起来 他们赚了很多钱
They cached all the oil; they got all the money;
但并没有换来健康
but health cannot be bought at the supermarket.
你必须有健康投资 你必须把孩子送去上学
You have to invest in health. You have to get kids into schooling.
你必须培养医疗人员 你必须让人们接受教育
You have to train health staff. You have to educate the population.
阿联酋在这方面做的很好
And Sheikh Zayed did that in a fairly good way.
虽然油价下跌 他却能让国家上升到这里
In spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here.
这里我们可以看到 世界发展的主流
So we’ve got a much more mainstream appearance of the world,
在这个区域 所有国家对财富的使用
where all countries tend to use their money
比过去用得都要好
better than they used in the past.
现在 或多或少地 这些国家的平均值
Now, this is, more or less, if you look at the average data of the countries —
大概是这样
they are like this.
使用平均值是有风险的
Now that’s dangerous, to use average data,
因为这些国家的差距太大
because there is such a lot of difference within countries.
所以我看这里 可以看到今天的乌干达
So if I go and look here, we can see that Uganda today
在1960年韩国的位置
is where South Korea was in 1960.
如果我分解乌干达 其内部的分化十分严重
If I split Uganda, there’s quite a difference within Uganda.
这是五等分的乌干达
These are the quintiles of Uganda.
这里是乌干达最富有的20%
The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there.
最贫困的人在下面
The poorest are down there.
如果我分解南非 像这样
If I split South Africa, it’s like this.
接下来看尼日尔
And if I go down and look at Niger,
这里有十分严重的饥荒 最终 就像这样
where there was such a terrible famine, lastly, it’s like this.
尼日尔最贫穷的20%在外面
The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here,
这是南非最富有的20%
and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there,
但我们想去讨论
and yet we tend to discuss
我们应该把什么方法用到非洲
on what solutions there should be in Africa.
世界上所有的问题非洲都有
Everything in this world exists in Africa.
你很难用像治疗HIV[药物]一样 用普遍方法进行讨论
And you can’t discuss universal access to HIV [medicine]
对这五分之一的人和这五分之一的人用同样的措施
for that quintile up here with the same strategy as down here.
世界的发展必须全局考虑
The improvement of the world must be highly contextualized,
而不是只关系到一个区域
and it’s not relevant to have it on regional level.
我们必须更加仔细
We must be much more detailed.
我们发现学生用这个的时候会很兴奋
We find that students get very excited when they can use this.
甚至 决策者和企业部门
And even more, policy makers and the corporate sectors
更想要知道世界如何变化
would like to see how the world is changing.
现在 为什么不去实现它呢?
Now, why doesn’t this take place?
我们为什么不去使用手中已有的数据呢?
Why are we not using the data we have?
我们从联合国国家统计办公室得到了这些数据
We have data in the United Nations, in the national statistical agencies
还有大学和其它非营利组织那里
and in universities and other non-governmental organizations.
但数据被隐藏在底层的数据库下面
Because the data is hidden down in the databases.
公众在这儿 网络在这儿
And the public is there, and the Internet is there,
但我们还不能有效利用它
but we have still not used it effectively.
我们所能得到的这些关于世界变化的信息
All that information we saw changing in the world
都不包括有公共资金投入的统计内容
does not include publicly-funded statistics.
有一些这样的网页
There are some web pages like this, you know,
他们从数据库中得到一些有营养的数据
but they take some nourishment down from the databases,
但这是要收费的 还有愚蠢的密码和讨厌的统计表格
but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
并且一点用都没有
And this won’t work.
[掌声]
(Applause)
所以需要什么呢? 我们有数据库
So what is needed? We have the databases.
你需要的不是新的数据库
It’s not the new database you need.
我们有完美的设计工具 更多的列在了这里
We have wonderful design tools, and more and more are added up here.
我们成立了一家非盈利企业
So we started a nonprofit venture
用来对数据进行设计 我们称之为Gapminder
which, linking data to design, we called Gapminder,
取自伦敦地铁
from the London Underground,
的警告语 “小心台阶间跨度”
where they warn you, “mind the gap.”
我们觉得Gapminder是合适的
So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.
我们开始编写连接数据的软件 像这个
And we started to write software which could link the data like this.
这不太困难
And it wasn’t that difficult.
花了几年的时间 我们制作了一些动画(来演示)
It took some person years, and we have produced animations.
你可以拿一套数据放在这里
You can take a data set and put it there.
我们在开放联合国的数据 少数联合国机构和
We are liberating U.N. data, some few U.N. organization.
几个国家已经开放了数据库
Some countries accept that their databases can go out on the world,
但我们真正需要的是检索功能
but what we really need is, of course, a search function.
利用检索功能 你可以把数据复制成可检索的格式
A search function where we can copy the data up to a searchable format
并从中得到这些数据
and get it out in the world.
当我们推广的时候听到了什么呢?
And what do we hear when we go around?
我利用统计模块研究人类学
I’ve done anthropology on the main statistical units.
每个人都说 “那不可能 不能这么做
Everyone says, “It’s impossible. This can’t be done.
我们的详细资料太过特殊
Our information is so peculiar in detail,
不能和其它的东西一样进行检索
so that cannot be searched as others can be searched.
我们不能把数据免费提供给学生
We cannot give the data free to the students,
免费提供给世界各地的企业家”
free to the entrepreneurs of the world.”
但这是我们乐意见到的吗
But this is what we would like to see, isn’t it?
有公共资金投入的数据就在下面
The publicly-funded data is down here.
我们希望它们像花朵一样在网络上生长
And we would like flowers to grow out on the Net.
其中重要的一点就是使它可检索
And one of the crucial points is to make them searchable,
之后人们就可以使用不同的设计工具使它充满活力
and then people can use the different design tool to animate it there.
我有个好消息要告诉你们
And I have pretty good news for you.
好消息是现在
I have good news that the present,
新任联合国统计局局长没有说那是不可能的
new Head of U.N. Statistics, he doesn’t say it’s impossible.
他只说“我们不能这么做”
He only says, “We can’t do it.”
[笑声]
(Laughter)
他很聪明吧
And that’s a quite clever guy, huh?
[笑声]
(Laughter)
未来几年中 我们将会看到数据的巨大变化
So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years.
我们会看到收入以全新的方式分布
We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways.
这是1970年中国的收入分布
This is the income distribution of China, 1970.
这是1970年美国的收入分布
This is the income distribution of the United States, 1970.
几乎没有重叠
Almost no overlap.
之后发生了什么呢?
And what has happened?
发生了这个
What has happened is this:
中国不断发展 变得不再匹配
that China is growing, it’s not so equal any longer,
它出现在这里 俯视美国
and it’s appearing here, overlooking the United States.
就像个幽灵 是吧?
Almost like a ghost, isn’t it?
[笑声]
(Laughter)
好可怕
It’s pretty scary.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
但我认为获得所有信息十分重要
But I think it’s very important to have all this information.
我们非常有必要看看它
We need really to see it.
除了看着
And instead of looking at this,
在最后 我想展示一下千人次计的网络用户
I would like to end up by showing the Internet users per 1,000.
在这个软件里 我们可以轻易得到
In this software, we access about 500 variables
来自所有国家的大约500个变量
from all the countries quite easily.
只需花一点时间就可以改过来
It takes some time to change for this,
在x轴上 你可以轻易地放上任何你想要的变量
but on the axises, you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have.
之后(软件)会连接免费数据库
And the thing would be to get up the databases free,
使它们可检索 只需点几下
to get them searchable, and with a second click,
就可以让它们变得直观 使大家立刻明白这些数据
to get them into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them.
但统计学家不喜欢它
Now, statisticians don’t like it,
他们说这样不能反映事实
because they say that this will not show the reality;
我们需要统计分析方法
we have to have statistical analytical methods.
但这只是假设生成
But this is hypothesis-generating.
我用下面这张世界(数据表)作结束
I end now with the world.
网络时代到来了
There, the Internet is coming.
网络用户的数量持续增长 像这样
The number of Internet users are going up like this.
这是人均GDP
This is the GDP per capita.
新技术出现 但令人惊讶的是
And it’s a new technology coming in, but then amazingly,
它对国家经济的影响如此之大
how well it fits to the economy of the countries.
这就是为什么100美元的电脑会如此重要
That’s why the $100 computer will be so important.
但这是个好的趋势
But it’s a nice tendency.
就好像世界在扁平化 不是吗?
It’s as if the world is flattening off, isn’t it?
这些国家肩负起了重任 而不仅仅在经济方面
These countries are lifting more than the economy
沿着这个趋势 接下来的一年会十分有趣
and will be very interesting to follow this over the year,
因为我会让你们能够得到所有有公共资金投入的数据
as I would like you to be able to do with all the publicly funded data.
非常感谢
Thank you very much.
[掌声]
(Applause)

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视频概述

如何利用数学统计,来重新认识我们的世界。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

tu3535

审核员

赖皮

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUwS1uAdUcI

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