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优秀的投资人创造利润,伟大的投资人创造价值 – 译学馆
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优秀的投资人创造利润,伟大的投资人创造价值

Good Investors Make Money. Great Investors Create Value. | Mihir Desai

(金融能重拾声誉吗?)
我一直在关注着这件事
So I’ve been concerned
在过去的几年到一二十年里
because finance has become demonized
金融业已经被妖魔化了
in last several years and a decade or two.
就某些方面而言 这也是情理之中的
And in part it’s for good reason,
有那么多金融崩溃的实例
which is the practice of finance broken.
我们看过了太多的金融活动都是在榨取价值
We see a lot of activity that is value extracting
而不是创造价值
as opposed to value creating,
这很令人担忧
and that is really disturbing.
而且 你知道的 那不仅是金融业的危机
And, you know, that’s not just the financial crisis,
还包括金融业的各个方面
but we see it in various parts of finance
某种程度上而言 还包括分析管理部门 银行
in analysis management to some degree, in banking.
所以 下面这两点着实让人不安
And so, it is really worrisome that is
A:人们对金融业的印象很糟糕
A: people have such a terrible impression of finance,
B:金融业有时的确很糟糕
and B: that we sometimes live up to it.
但事实上 我们的生活离不开金融
But the truth is that we can’t live without finance,
所以我们需要恢复金融业的声誉
and we need to rehabilitate finance.
我们之所以离不开它 是因为
And the reason we can’t is because
它是现代经济非常重要的核心
it is so central to the modern economy.
所以我认为 即使那些对金融业非常沮丧的人
So I think even people who are reallyupset about finance
也得承认金融业的核心地位
have to acknowledge that it’s really central,
而且 我们必须改善它
and we have to make it better.
我们得靠它去发展公司
It is the fundamental mechanismby which companies grow,
储蓄 贷款读大学
we save, we allow ourselves to potentially borrow to go to college,
为退休存钱
we save for our retirement.
而且创新通常也需要资助
And innovation in general has to be funded.
所以金融真的是经济活动的中心
So finance is really central.
我们必须尝试去弄清的是
What we have to try to figure out is
它是如何 为什么变成榨取价值
how and why it’s become so extractive
而不是创造价值
as opposed to creating value.
你怎么知道你是否在创造价值
How do you know whether you’re creating value,
创造价值的秘诀又是什么呢?
and what is the recipe for creating value?
所以 你知道 这些听起来会太专业
So, you know that sounds very financy.
事实上 我用了一个关于天赋的寓言故事来说明这一点
In fact I use The Parable of the Talents,
这个寓言来自《圣经》
which is a very odd parable from the bible,
非常的古怪 残酷
a very harsh parable in the bible,
它非常贴切直观地表现了
which effectively captures the logic of
金融学课本里关于价值创造的逻辑
value creation straight out of a finance textbook.
我想说的是 这个故事描写了三个仆人
By that I mean it tells the story of these three servants,
有两个很好地利用了他们的天赋
two of whom actually use what they’re given well
而另一个埋没了他的天赋
and one of whom buries his talents.
人们常常不知道天赋(talent)这个单词
People don’t often know that the word talent
在古代有金钱(money)的意思
is actually historically money.
在现代观念里
It is now—the modern notion is
我们把它看成一种能力
what we now think of as an ability.
但这个故事的巧妙之处是
But the neat thing about that story is,
它描绘出了价值创造和金融的基本奥妙
it maps to the basic recipe for value creation and finance
专业点说 就是
which is, just to be a little technical,
你压缩成本
you beat your cost to capital.
你超出了人们的预期
You surpass people’s expectations.
你维持了长期的运营
You do it for a very long period of time
并且你持续增长
and you continue to grow.
所以 这就是公司创造价值的方法
So that’s how companies create value.
这是价值创造的小窍门
You know that a little recipe for value creation,
我所讲的完全来自这个寓言
my show is exactly what is in the The Parable of the Talents.
事实上 卫理公会的创始人
And, in fact, John Wesley Mitchell,
约翰.卫斯理.米歇尔
who is the founder of Methodism,
他的一篇关于《天赋的寓言》的文章
in his essay on The Parable of the Talents,
基本上讲明了价值创造的根本秘诀
basically says almost the exact recipe for value creation
和教科书上讲的如出一辙
that kind of comes out of a textbook
你也知道 像压缩成本
which is you know, beat your cost to capital,
类似的 你知道 回报要大于付出
which is very same, you know, give back more than you take
永不言弃
as long as you can
面向大众
to as many people as you can,
诸如此类
and so on and so forth.
所以《天赋的寓言》这本书巧妙地说明了
So it’s actually kind of neat in the sensethat The Parable of the Talents,
创造价值的秘诀
that recipe for value creation actually
就是创造幸福生活的秘诀
maps to the recipe for a reasonably good life.
这只是一个例子 书中还有许多
So that’s one example, but there’slike the book is littered with
类似的例子
kind of basically examples like that.
金融业误入歧途的原因之一是
So one of the mechanisms by which financehas kind of gone wrong is
人们将它变得过于复杂了
they’ve made it more complex than it needs to be.
所以我在本书中只是讲了些故事
And so what I try to do in the book is tell these stories
这些来自文学 哲学 历史学的故事
from literature and philosophy and history
能将金融的概念变得非常直观
that actually make the ideas really quite intuitive.
所以 理论上你只要看一眼这本书
So ideally you take a look at the book and
就能获得大量的思想
you kind of get a host of ideas,
仅仅通过读故事就能掌握金融的核心理念
the core ideas of finance but just by reading stories.
我认为这是让人理解金融更为有效的方式
And I think that’s a much more powerful wayfor people to understand finance.
我希望在这个揭秘的过程中
And in that process of demystificationwhat I hope will happen
人们能受到鼓舞 你知道
is people will feel empowered, you know.
他们将了解金融是什么
They’ll understand what finance is.
他们将了解金融的功能
They’ll understand what finance is doing
他们会对金融的默默奉献心存感谢
and so they’ll A: be more appreciative of the underlying functions
即使它现在比较糟糕
even if it is broken today.
人们在谈到或想到金融以及
But also feel more empowered to talkabout it and think about it and
身陷金融危机时会更加有勇气
confront people when they’re faced with it.
金融的核心包括很多不同的概念
There are a bunch of different ideasthat are kind of core to finance.
最重要一个是风险和保险的概念
The most important one is risk and insurance
我们需要了解风险的普遍性
which is just to really try to understandthe omnipresence of risk
然后去思考生活中的相关的事物是如何偿付的
and then to think about how all thekinds of things that pay off in life,
风险可以界定事物的价值
really the way they’re priced are a functionof those risks that they address
定价与风险有什么关系
and how they are associated with those risks.
所以说风险真是金融的一大内涵
So that’s a really big idea in finance
它是我们思考证券和它的定价方式
that underlies the way we think about securities and how they’re priced.
以及大量的公司金融的基础
the way we think about chunks of corporate finance.
这是一个非常核心的观点
And that’s a really core idea.
所以 比如说 为了解释风险和保险
So, for example, to think about risk and insurance
以及风险的普遍性
and to think about the omnipresence of risk
我用了两个有趣的人作为例子
I use these two folks who are really fun:
哲学家查尔斯·桑德斯·皮尔斯和
this philosopherCharles Sanders Peirce
诗人华莱士·史蒂文斯
and this poet Wallace Stevens.
这两个人
So by using people like that,
对风险和保险都深有体会
people who actually really deeplyappreciated risk and insurance
但是你可能还没在金融书里见过他们
but people who you would neverexpect to be in a finance book,
我觉得你会通过这种不同的方法
I think you can actually explore the idea of risk
探索到风险和保险的内涵
and insurance in a different kind of way.
关于风险和保险存在许多误解
There are various misconceptions.
首先 人们觉得风险是完全随机的
So the first about risk is somehowthat it is complete randomness.
事实上 风险是可以弄懂的
Actually risk is something that can be understood.
风险存在固定的模式并且可控
There are patterns and it can be managed.
实际上 这就是金融的本质
So, in fact, that is what finance is.
金融业的任务就是研究这些模式和规律
Finance is all about those patterns,about those regularities and
然后找到管控它们的方法
then figuring out how to manage in that world.
所以说 风险并不是完全随机的
So risk is not really randomness.
风险就是:你不知道哪个特定的结果会出现
Risk is: you don’t know what a particularoutcome is going to be,
但是所有结果的模型都存在于生活中
but there can be all these patterns in life
可以帮助我们操控那些看起来混乱的事情
that can actually help us navigatewhat seems like chaos.
事实上 这正是保险公司在做的
And in fact, that is exactlywhat insurance companies do,
许多金融业人士试图通过
and that’s what a lot of people in finance dois try to make sense of
探索这些规律来理解混乱
the chaos of the world by exploring those regularities.
事实上 这正是查尔斯·桑德斯·皮尔斯
And, in fact, that’s exactly why Charles Sanders Peirce,
我上文提到的哲学家
who is this philosopher I mentioned, actually
在生命的最后时刻仍四处游说
said near the end of his life, he justkept walking around everywhere
“我们都是保险公司”的原因
saying, “We are all insurance companies.”
因为我们都是保险公司
Because we are all insurance companies.
我们都试图理解混乱
We are all make the sense of chaos.
而他是实用主义的奠基人
and he was the founder of pragmatism.
而他理解混乱的诀窍是:
And so his recipe for figuring out the chaos was:
去体验 去尝试 尝试一切
you sample, you try, you try everything
这是一个在生活中非常实用的方法
which is a pragmatic approach to life.
也是保险公司采用的方法
It’s also the approach that insurance companies take.
一旦你接受了风险的普遍性
Once you kind of come to termswith the omnipresence of risk
那你就得考虑
then you have to kind of think about
风险管控 尤其是 风险对冲
risk management and, in particular, hedging.
其中反直觉的一点是
And one of the counterintuitive pieces of this is
有很多方法可以帮你管控风险
there are these things that help you manage risks.
比如分散投资 期权
Things like diversification, things like options.
人们对这些感到困惑
People get a little confused about that
是因为他们觉得这些只是结果
because they thinkthey’re an end in and of itself.
就像你只是为了规避风险对你的影响
Like you’re just trying to preventrisks from affecting you.
你知道 事实上这些措施
You know in reality those are instruments
可以让你有能力冒更大的风险
which allow you to take bigger risks.
所以你可以采用 可以买一点保险
So you can take, you can buy a little insurance and
然后你就能加大赌注了
then that allows you to take the bigger bets in life.
所以 比方说期权
So, for example, in options
人们认为期权 也就是金融期权 是一种赌博
people think options as in financial options are gambles.
你知道 它们可以是赌博
You know they can be.
但是实际上 我们把在金融活动中使用期权
But in reality the way we typically think about using options in finance
看作是一种保险 一种保护
is as insurance and as protection.
而且这种保护让你敢进行
And that protection allows you to take bigger
更大的个性化投资 就是因为
kind of idiosyncratic bets because you have
有这些期权给你提供保障
these options that allow you some protection.
所以风险管理实际上是金融的一大部分
So risk management is actually a hugechunk of finance
因为它让你有能力承担更大的风险
because it allows you to taking bigger risks than you might otherwise.

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视频概述

介绍了金融学的关键概念:风险和保险,深刻剖析了金融的本质。

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHUS7KvZRxI

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