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博弈论:获胜的两个关键要素 – 译学馆
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博弈论:获胜的两个关键要素

Game theory: Two key principles for winning negotiations | Kevin Zollman

为何耐心影响谈判结果
博弈论学者用了大量时间去分析各种不同的谈判模式
Game theorists have spent a lot of time analyzing various models of negotiation.
博弈论的构思是 把看似复杂交错的事物
The idea is that you take what feels like a complex interaction,
提炼成简单的要素
distill it down to its very simple elements
再借助博弈论将其模式化
and then you model it using the tools of Game Theory.
博弈论学者研究发现 在谈判中
One of the things that game theorists have foundis that in negotiation
尤其是在讨论如何分配资源的谈判中
especially in negotiations where we’re debating how to divide up some resource–
虽然典型例子是分水果派
classic example in Game Theory is dividing up a pie,
但还可以是其他东西 比如钱财 或独占玩具的时间
but it could be anything, like moneyor some time with a toy,
或者任何我们不得不分配的东西
or anything where we have to decide how to divide it up.
博弈论学者发现了几条首要原则
Game theorists have discovereda couple of central principles
这些原则对谁才是谈判赢家有着重大影响
that make a big difference towho does better in those negotiations.
关键因素之一便是耐心程度
One of the critical things is how patient you are–
即你有多大决心去坚持继续谈判
how willing you are to stay and continue to negotiate.
假如 我急匆匆地跑进一家汽车经销店
So if I come into a rush to a car dealership and I say
说“我现在就得买台车”
“I need a car right now”,
大家都明白
everyone knows that the car dealer is going to
汽车商会企图利用这个事实
try and take advantage of the fact that you need a car right now
回复道“抱歉 我们不能打折”
and say, “sorry, we can’t give you a discount.”
但是如果你走进一家汽车店
But if you come into a car dealership and you say
并说“我并不急着买车
“I don’t need a car anytime soon.
如果今天你们报价不错的话 我就买
If you give me a good deal today, I’ll take it,
否则我就先走一步
but if you don’t, I’ll leave.
没准明天再来 或者后天 甚至一个月”
Maybe I’ll come back tomorrow, maybe the next day, maybe a month later.”
这样你才能谈成一笔上好的交易
Then you’ll get a better deal.
因此耐心十分重要
So patience is very important.
如果在一场谈判中 想要取得胜利 获得成功
If you ’ re trying to win in a negotiation,
就得尝尽办法
you want to try and find ways to make it
来使自己显得比对方更有耐力
so that you are more patient than the other person
也就是 与对方比较
—that is you have less to lose from letting the negotiation drag out
谈判拖延对你造成的损失更少
than does the person you’re negotiating with.
因此买车要耐住性子直至最后一刻
So don’t wait until the last minute to buy a new car,
也不要在你正需要那笔金额不小的加薪时
don’t run into the bosses office
急匆匆地跑进老板办公室
right before you need that big raise.
永远选择你所暗示的时机
Always choose situations where you just suggest it,
说“不要紧 我可以以后再来”
say “No urgency, but I can come back later.”
如此一来 局势由你创造
By doing that you create the situation
别人就不能利用你的急性子
where the other person can’t take advantage ofyour impatience,
来提出“不同意就算了”的协议要挟你
they can’t give you a deal that is effectivelya “take it or leave it” deal.
谈判中 另一个能使你获取更好成果的重要因素是
Another important thing in negotiationthat can lead to better outcomes for you
总是占据
is you always want to be in the position
向对方提出“不同意就算了”协议的立场
to be able to offer “take it or leave it”dealsto the other person.
比如 如果你能说“这是我的协议 不同意就算了”
So if you can say to somebody else”here’s s the deal, take it or leave it”,
他们就陷入了要么接受 要么空手而归的困境
now they’re put in a positionwhere they either take it or they get nothing.
当然了 这招很狡猾 因为虽然嘴上如此
Now it’s tricky, of course, cause I can say to you”take it or leave it”,
但并不意味着事情确实会如此发展
but that doesn’t mean that it really is that way.
因此制造出确确实实的“取舍请便”的局面
So by creating situations where it really isa “take it or leave it”situation,
虽然有所帮助 但同时也充满风险 令人焦虑
that can help you, but it’s also nerve-racking and dangerous.
因此运用这一计策还须小心为上
So it’s a strategy that you have to be very careful about.
但假如你能制造出
But if you can be in a situation
给对方提出“取舍请便”的协议的情境
where you can offer somebodya true “take it or leave it” deal,
你取得的谈判成果常常会更好
that can oftentimes improve the outcomesof the negotiation for you.

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博弈论是我们众所周知的理论,那么让我们了解一下它的两个关键因素吧

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