最新评论 (0)


Elon Musk's Basic Economics

This video was made possible by Hover.
Buy your domain before its gone for 10% offby going to hover.com/Wendover.
Imagine a $2,000 car… or a $100 laptop…or a $70 iPhone… or imagine any product
ten times cheaper than it was.
Imagine the fundamental market change thatwould bring.
Imagine the amount of demand there would befor that $2,000 car or $100 laptop or $70 iPhone.
That’s what Elon Musk imagined 15 yearsago when he sat on a pile of $165 million dollars.
Elon Musk’s businesses are all centeredaround some the most basic principles of economics out there.
启动一个新项目时 他一般不会涉足新领域而是去做正确的事情
When he starts a business, he’s not necessarilytrying to do something new, he’s trying to do something right.
Musk made most of his early fortune throughhis involvement with PayPal.
1999年他建立了一个叫X.com的公司 后来被paypal的母公司Confinity收购
In 1999 he founded a company called X.comwhich was quickly bought by Confinity—the
所以2002年ebay收购paypal时 马斯克11.7%的股份
creators of PayPal—so when PayPal was boughtby eBay in 2002, Musk’s 11.7% ownership
of the company translated to $165 milliondollars.
伊隆·马斯克一直对太空探索聊有兴致 如大家所知
Elon Musk has always been deeply passionateabout space exploration and, as anyone knows,
public interest in space has been fallingsince the Apollo era.
因此 马斯克准备用这笔钱建造一架携带
Therefore, Musk’s plan with his newfoundfortune was to launch a rocket to mars carrying
温室的火箭 里面的植物将被种植于火星
a small greenhouse that would grow plantson the surface of the red planet.
基本上 他想把所有钱都花在太空探索上
Basically, he wanted to take all his moneyand put it into a big publicity stunt for space exploration.
不过对他来说 问题是开销太大了
But he had a problem—it was too expensive.
发射火箭的花销无疑是巨大的 尽管马斯克买下了俄罗斯的
The cost of launches was absolutely immenseand, even when Musk tried to buy decommissioned
退役洲际导弹 但他仍无法启动这个项目 不过他还是有所发现的
Russian ICBM’s, he couldn’t find a wayto pull off the project, but he had discovered something.
航天发射产业已然成熟 可以带来变革影响
The space launch industry was ripe for disruption.
Here’s Joseph, the economics expert fromReal Life Lore to explain why.
“在Space X之前的火箭研究和发射公司实际上做了非常重要的整合工作
“The rocket development and space-launchcompanies before Space X were essentially aggregators.
企业之间互相购买引擎 制导系统以及其他各种组件
They bought engines and guidance systems andall the other various components from other
companies to cobble together one completedrocket.
But all the different component suppliersalso had their own component suppliers to make their product.
The suppliers of the suppliers not only hadto cover their development and manufacturing
costs, they had to sell their components ata markup in order to make a profit, and then
同样的 其他公司也得如此 这就意味着
the next component manufacturer had to dothe same which means that by the time the
component gets to the company assembling therocket, it’s expensive.
不仅如此 装配公司还得给那些负责
Not only that, but the assembly company alsohas to pay for employees that work to actually
figure out how to make all of the differentpieces work together.
不过Space X 完全不同
SpaceX however, works differently.
它自产自销85%的组件 这样会更加便宜
It makes 85% of the components it uses itself,which allows it to make cheaper parts.
比如说Space X从外部购买无线电设备 每个得花费5到10万美元
For example, if SpaceX had bought their radiosexternally they would be paying $50,000-100,000
不过因为它们自己生产这项产品 实际只花了5千美元
dollars each, but since they develop theminternally they only cost $5,000 each to build,
a dramatic improvement in reducing cost.”
Joseph出版了一本新书 书里有两个比较有意思的章节
Joseph from Real Life Lore has a brand newbook which includes two fantastic chapters
解释了一些简单的经济学概念 我待会回放上链接 我们先来谈谈特斯拉
explaining simple economic concepts like thisthat I’ll link in the description, but let’s talk Tesla.
特斯拉的经济策略跟Space X类似
Tesla’s economic strategy is fairly similarto SpaceX’s.
特斯拉电动车有5300个组件 而公司本身就能解决80%的组件问题 不过对于关键部分
Tesla themselves makes about 80% of the 5,300parts in a Tesla car, but for the most part
比如电池 它们自己不生产 至少现在还没有
they don’t make these, the batteries, atleast yet.
电池组件成本很难控制 因此制造商很少
Batteries are very difficult to make at acompetitive price so very few companies do.
电池的三大巨头松下 比亚迪 LG占据了世界63%的市场份额
The largest three manufacturers—Panasonic,BYD, and LG Chem—make a combined 63% of the world’s batteries.
Tesla, therefore, has historically just boughtbatteries from Panasonic at a cost of about
$200 per kWh.
But that means that Tesla’s smallest batterypack, the 50 kWh version, costs $10,000 dollars just in components.
When you’re trying to sell a $35,000 dollarcar and make a profit, that’s a significant
cost that can be reduced.
因此 特斯拉准备与松下联合风投建造自己的电池工厂
Therefore, Tesla is attempting to reduce thecost of their batteries by 30% by building
their own factory in a joint-venture withPanasonic.
Their long-term goal, however, is to dropthe battery price below $100 dollars per kWh
这会导致两种可能 电池大小加倍或者价格减半
which would either double the range or halvethe price of that 50 kWh battery pack.
不过特斯拉和Space X的垂直管理并不总是奏效
But the vertical integration of Tesla andSpaceX isn’t all useful.
The companies basically have to learn andperfect each step in the manufacturing process
如果其中一步出问题 就造不出汽车了
and, if one step isn’t working, no carsget made.
比如成本最低的特斯拉Model 3 采用的是钢而不是Model S和X的铝
For example, the Tesla Model 3, the low-costTesla, is built using steel instead of aluminum like the Model S and X.
With this change, the manufacturer is havingtroubles properly welding the vehicle bodies
together and so the entire production lineis slowed down massively.
不过好在Space X和特斯拉的生产线在美国
But there’s something else unique about SpaceXand Tesla’s production lines—they’re in the US.
Now this probably seems counterintuitive—whywould you put the production lines of two
companies working to make the least expensiveproducts on the market in one of the most
expensive labor markets in the world?
Almost every US company has relocated theirproduction lines to cheaper labor markets
亚非地区的廉价劳动力市场中 但马斯克把它放在了美国
in Asia and Africa but Musk has always hadhis in the US.
无论信不信 这并不是一场公关活动
Believe it or not, this isn’t a PR move.
It actually makes sense for the two companies.
Tesla and SpaceX’s production processesare constantly being tweaked and optimized
as the companies learn to make their products.
While China might be able to build Tesla carsat the same price by using cheaper human labor,
Tesla’s US factory is just miles away fromits headquarters in Palo Alto meaning that
这就意味着管理层 技术层以及生产员工都紧密协调 应变能力强
the executive, development, and productionstaff are all heavily integrated and can make changes fast.
SpaceX even takes this a step further.
It’s offices and manufacturing lines areall under one roof.
尤其是特斯拉工厂也是极其自动化的 而美国
The Tesla factory in particular is also heavilyautomatized and the US excels in production
在产品线自动化方面拥有充足娴熟的工人 不过问题是马斯克
line automation with its abundance of highlyskilled workers, but just how much is Musk
dropping the price on his products?
The United Launch Alliance, which historicallyhas won most of the highly lucrative US government
launch contracts, is believed to charge morethan $400 million dollars all-in for a military
satellite launch while SpaceX charges about$80 million dollars.
差不多是发射联盟的1/5 不过 伊隆·马斯克想降低到1/10
So, SpaceX is already at a fifth of the price,but as mentioned, Elon Musk wants that to fall to a tenth.
关键在于 猎鹰9号火箭每次发射的燃料只花费了20万美元
Here’s the key for that—the fuel usedin the Falcon 9 rocket only costs about $200,000
dollars per launch—it’s practically anon-factor in the launch price.
真正的开销在于火箭本身 那也是SpaceX要再利用火箭身的原因
The real cost is of the rockets themselves,so that’s why SpaceX is making them reusable.
The first stage of the rocket is now beingdesigned to land back on earth and be put
使其可被回收再利用 从而实现多次发射的目的
back into service with dozens more launches.
一旦成功 发射成本便能
Once this system becomes reliable, it’sbelieved that the cost savings will drop the
降到4千万美元 刚好是发射联盟成本的1/10
launch price to $40 million dollars—a full10 times cheaper than United Launch Alliance’s military launch price.
SpaceX’s long-term goal is to get the launchprice down to about $10 million dollars per launch.
一旦实现 SpaceX将对航天产业产生重大影响
While the company has already made a significantimpact on the space industry, a launch price
as low as this would fundamentally changewhat’s possible in space.
真正的外太空旅游将成为可能 商业卫星将无处不在
Real space tourism would become feasible,commercial satellites would become downright
commonplace, and Space would become closerthan it’s ever been.
But SpaceX does have a bit of a problem—
peoplearen’t really buying more rocket launches even though prices are down.
It’s what’s known as a price inelasticmarket.
它与特斯拉不同 电动交通市场价格越低
That’s the opposite of Tesla and the electricvehicle market where lower prices lead to
huge increases in sales.
The problem with the space launch market isthat it is not a consumer market—normal
people don’t buy rocket launches.
政府会购买 不过因为花的不是决策者自己的钱
Governments buy rocket launches and they don’tcare about price nearly as much as people
since it’s not the decision makers’ money.
例如 美国空军为了国防安全
The US Air Force, for example, decides theyneed to launch a certain number of satellites
每年都会发射几颗卫星 他们就会因此不惜代价
each year for the national security reasonsand they’ll pay whatever it takes.
But Elon Musk’s life goal is to get humanityto Mars—
这也是SpaceX存在的原因 他需要钱来实现目标
that’s why SpaceX exists—and he needs money to do it.
Lots of money.
所以 SpaceX进入了互联网商业
So, SpaceX is getting into the internet business.
它正在建造卫星群 用以提高
The company is actively developing a satelliteconstellation that would provide high-speed
internet to anywhere on earth.
地球低轨道将有成百上千的小卫星 这样世界各地就可
Thousands of small satellites would be putinto low earth orbit and then anyone worldwide
could hook into the network using an inexpensiveground receiver.
If SpaceX got just 50 million users out ofthe 7 billion in its proposed service area,
this business could bring in $30 billion dollarsa year.
Since SpaceX would be building and launchingthe satellites themselves, costs would be
dramatically lower than the competition’s.
The whole commercial aspect of SpaceX essentiallyexists
to fund Musk’s future space exploration projects
因此 SpaceX和上市公司特斯拉不一样
For that reason, SpaceX is not a public companylike Tesla.
马斯克并不指望SpaceX挣钱 他只想去火星
Elon Musk does not want to make money withSpaceX, he wants to get to Mars.
He does not want to be beholden to shareholdersand profitability.
马斯克曾在公众场合说过 SpaceX并不会面相公众
Musk has therefore publicly said that SpaceXwill not go public until the company achieves
regular flights to and from mars and thanksto the entrepreneur’s understanding of basic
多亏了他自身对基本经济观念的理解 这一目标指日可待了
economics, that might not be too far off.
如果你正准备创业 你不仅需要懂点基本经济知识
If you’re looking to start a company, you’llneed not only an understanding of basic economics
but also a domain.
Hover makes finding and purchasing your domainsuper simple.
他们拥有超过400个域名拓展 能给你提供和我一样创造个人域名的机会
They have over 400 domain extensions thatlet you create unique domains like mine—wendover.productions.
找到并购买域名可能会花点时间 不过如果你真的遇到问题
It literally takes minutes to find and buyyour domain, but if you do ever have an issue
它们有非常棒的技术支持 能给你提供任何帮助
they have amazing, best-in-class customersupport that will help you with anything and everything.
如果有你想用于商业 油管频道或其他地方的名字
If you have a name you want to use for yourbusiness, your YouTube channel, or anything
赶紧买下这个域名 以防被别人购买
else you should buy the domain now beforeit’s gone.
You can also set up custom, professional emailaddresses using those domains for very reasonable
prices and what’s best is that you can doall of this for 10% off by heading over to
一旦进入网站 就能支持我们的频道
hover.com/Wendover and you’ll be supportingthe channel while you’re at it.
Hover is what I use for my domains since itjust works and you should too by heading over
to Hover.com/wendover.