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伊隆马斯克的经济学

Elon Musk's Basic Economics

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想象有一辆两千美元的汽车或者一百美元的电脑或者70美元的iphone
Imagine a $2,000 car… or a $100 laptop…or a $70 iPhone… or imagine any product
亦或者比它实际价格便宜十倍的任何产品
ten times cheaper than it was.
想一下那样会给市场带来的重大改变
Imagine the fundamental market change thatwould bring.
想象那时候对这些产品的巨大需求量
Imagine the amount of demand there would befor that $2,000 car or $100 laptop or $70 iPhone.
那就是伊隆·马斯克15年前坐拥1.65亿时所想象的
That’s what Elon Musk imagined 15 yearsago when he sat on a pile of $165 million dollars.
伊隆·马斯克的生意总是围绕这些最基本的经济学原理展开
Elon Musk’s businesses are all centeredaround some the most basic principles of economics out there.
启动一个新项目时 他一般不会涉足新领域而是去做正确的事情
When he starts a business, he’s not necessarilytrying to do something new, he’s trying to do something right.
马斯克通过早期投资的paypal积累了财富
Musk made most of his early fortune throughhis involvement with PayPal.
1999年他建立了一个叫X.com的公司 后来被paypal的母公司Confinity收购
In 1999 he founded a company called X.comwhich was quickly bought by Confinity—the
所以2002年ebay收购paypal时 马斯克11.7%的股份
creators of PayPal—so when PayPal was boughtby eBay in 2002, Musk’s 11.7% ownership
转化为1.65亿美元
of the company translated to $165 milliondollars.
伊隆·马斯克一直对太空探索聊有兴致 如大家所知
Elon Musk has always been deeply passionateabout space exploration and, as anyone knows,
大众的外太空探索欲自阿波罗号那一代渐渐衰弱
public interest in space has been fallingsince the Apollo era.
因此 马斯克准备用这笔钱建造一架携带
Therefore, Musk’s plan with his newfoundfortune was to launch a rocket to mars carrying
温室的火箭 里面的植物将被种植于火星
a small greenhouse that would grow plantson the surface of the red planet.
基本上 他想把所有钱都花在太空探索上
Basically, he wanted to take all his moneyand put it into a big publicity stunt for space exploration.
不过对他来说 问题是开销太大了
But he had a problem—it was too expensive.
发射火箭的花销无疑是巨大的 尽管马斯克买下了俄罗斯的
The cost of launches was absolutely immenseand, even when Musk tried to buy decommissioned
退役洲际导弹 但他仍无法启动这个项目 不过他还是有所发现的
Russian ICBM’s, he couldn’t find a wayto pull off the project, but he had discovered something.
航天发射产业已然成熟 可以带来变革影响
The space launch industry was ripe for disruption.
《现实生活知识》的经济专家Joseph解释了其中的原因
Here’s Joseph, the economics expert fromReal Life Lore to explain why.
“在Space X之前的火箭研究和发射公司实际上做了非常重要的整合工作
“The rocket development and space-launchcompanies before Space X were essentially aggregators.
企业之间互相购买引擎 制导系统以及其他各种组件
They bought engines and guidance systems andall the other various components from other
用以组装一架完整火箭
companies to cobble together one completedrocket.
不过所有这些组件的供应商也都有各自的供应商
But all the different component suppliersalso had their own component suppliers to make their product.
供应商的供应商不仅需要填补自己公司制造成本
The suppliers of the suppliers not only hadto cover their development and manufacturing
他们还得外销组件获取利润
costs, they had to sell their components ata markup in order to make a profit, and then
同样的 其他公司也得如此 这就意味着
the next component manufacturer had to dothe same which means that by the time the
装配火箭的组件开销巨大
component gets to the company assembling therocket, it’s expensive.
不仅如此 装配公司还得给那些负责
Not only that, but the assembly company alsohas to pay for employees that work to actually
组装的人员付工资
figure out how to make all of the differentpieces work together.
不过Space X 完全不同
SpaceX however, works differently.
它自产自销85%的组件 这样会更加便宜
It makes 85% of the components it uses itself,which allows it to make cheaper parts.
比如说Space X从外部购买无线电设备 每个得花费5到10万美元
For example, if SpaceX had bought their radiosexternally they would be paying $50,000-100,000
不过因为它们自己生产这项产品 实际只花了5千美元
dollars each, but since they develop theminternally they only cost $5,000 each to build,
这是削减开销方面的巨大进步”
a dramatic improvement in reducing cost.”
Joseph出版了一本新书 书里有两个比较有意思的章节
Joseph from Real Life Lore has a brand newbook which includes two fantastic chapters
解释了一些简单的经济学概念 我待会回放上链接 我们先来谈谈特斯拉
explaining simple economic concepts like thisthat I’ll link in the description, but let’s talk Tesla.
特斯拉的经济策略跟Space X类似
Tesla’s economic strategy is fairly similarto SpaceX’s.
特斯拉电动车有5300个组件 而公司本身就能解决80%的组件问题 不过对于关键部分
Tesla themselves makes about 80% of the 5,300parts in a Tesla car, but for the most part
比如电池 它们自己不生产 至少现在还没有
they don’t make these, the batteries, atleast yet.
电池组件成本很难控制 因此制造商很少
Batteries are very difficult to make at acompetitive price so very few companies do.
电池的三大巨头松下 比亚迪 LG占据了世界63%的市场份额
The largest three manufacturers—Panasonic,BYD, and LG Chem—make a combined 63% of the world’s batteries.
所以特斯拉目前只是从松下以每千瓦时
Tesla, therefore, has historically just boughtbatteries from Panasonic at a cost of about
200美元的成本购买电池
$200 per kWh.
那就意味着特斯拉一块50千瓦时的最小电池包就得花费1万美元
But that means that Tesla’s smallest batterypack, the 50 kWh version, costs $10,000 dollars just in components.
若是想要以3.5万美元的价格销售汽车并获取利润
When you’re trying to sell a $35,000 dollarcar and make a profit, that’s a significant
在这一块降低成本便不可小觑
cost that can be reduced.
因此 特斯拉准备与松下联合风投建造自己的电池工厂
Therefore, Tesla is attempting to reduce thecost of their batteries by 30% by building
以省下30%的成本
their own factory in a joint-venture withPanasonic.
他们的长期目标就是将电池价格降到每千瓦时100美元
Their long-term goal, however, is to dropthe battery price below $100 dollars per kWh
这会导致两种可能 电池大小加倍或者价格减半
which would either double the range or halvethe price of that 50 kWh battery pack.
不过特斯拉和Space X的垂直管理并不总是奏效
But the vertical integration of Tesla andSpaceX isn’t all useful.
公司需要优化每一步制造过程
The companies basically have to learn andperfect each step in the manufacturing process
如果其中一步出问题 就造不出汽车了
and, if one step isn’t working, no carsget made.
比如成本最低的特斯拉Model 3 采用的是钢而不是Model S和X的铝
For example, the Tesla Model 3, the low-costTesla, is built using steel instead of aluminum like the Model S and X.
这种变化使得车体的焊接非常困难
With this change, the manufacturer is havingtroubles properly welding the vehicle bodies
因此整条生产线严重拖慢了速度
together and so the entire production lineis slowed down massively.
不过好在Space X和特斯拉的生产线在美国
But there’s something else unique about SpaceXand Tesla’s production lines—they’re in the US.
现在看起来可能违反常理——为何要把有两个
Now this probably seems counterintuitive—whywould you put the production lines of two
低价产品公司的生产线放在世界劳动力
companies working to make the least expensiveproducts on the market in one of the most
最贵的市场中呢
expensive labor markets in the world?
几乎所有美国公司都把生产线放在
Almost every US company has relocated theirproduction lines to cheaper labor markets
亚非地区的廉价劳动力市场中 但马斯克把它放在了美国
in Asia and Africa but Musk has always hadhis in the US.
无论信不信 这并不是一场公关活动
Believe it or not, this isn’t a PR move.
实际上这对两个公司来说意义重大
It actually makes sense for the two companies.
随着特斯拉和SpaceX公司不断学习新的技术
Tesla and SpaceX’s production processesare constantly being tweaked and optimized
它们产品的生产过程经常需要调整和优化
as the companies learn to make their products.
尽管中国可以通过使用廉价劳工同价生产特斯拉汽车
While China might be able to build Tesla carsat the same price by using cheaper human labor,
但特斯拉美国工厂离它的帕罗阿尔托总部很近
Tesla’s US factory is just miles away fromits headquarters in Palo Alto meaning that
这就意味着管理层 技术层以及生产员工都紧密协调 应变能力强
the executive, development, and productionstaff are all heavily integrated and can make changes fast.
SpaceX则在这方面更进一步
SpaceX even takes this a step further.
它的办公地和生产线都在同一个地方
It’s offices and manufacturing lines areall under one roof.
尤其是特斯拉工厂也是极其自动化的 而美国
The Tesla factory in particular is also heavilyautomatized and the US excels in production
在产品线自动化方面拥有充足娴熟的工人 不过问题是马斯克
line automation with its abundance of highlyskilled workers, but just how much is Musk
在他的产品上省下了多少钱?
dropping the price on his products?
曾取得美国政府绝大多数发射合同资格的发射联盟
The United Launch Alliance, which historicallyhas won most of the highly lucrative US government
每次的军事卫星发射大约花费4亿美元
launch contracts, is believed to charge morethan $400 million dollars all-in for a military
而SpaceX只需花费约8千万美元
satellite launch while SpaceX charges about$80 million dollars.
差不多是发射联盟的1/5 不过 伊隆·马斯克想降低到1/10
So, SpaceX is already at a fifth of the price,but as mentioned, Elon Musk wants that to fall to a tenth.
关键在于 猎鹰9号火箭每次发射的燃料只花费了20万美元
Here’s the key for that—the fuel usedin the Falcon 9 rocket only costs about $200,000
与整体的发射费用相比是微不足道的
dollars per launch—it’s practically anon-factor in the launch price.
真正的开销在于火箭本身 那也是SpaceX要再利用火箭身的原因
The real cost is of the rockets themselves,so that’s why SpaceX is making them reusable.
第一阶段就是设计火箭降落地表
The first stage of the rocket is now beingdesigned to land back on earth and be put
使其可被回收再利用 从而实现多次发射的目的
back into service with dozens more launches.
一旦成功 发射成本便能
Once this system becomes reliable, it’sbelieved that the cost savings will drop the
降到4千万美元 刚好是发射联盟成本的1/10
launch price to $40 million dollars—a full10 times cheaper than United Launch Alliance’s military launch price.
SpaceX的长期目标是将每次发射成本降至1千万
SpaceX’s long-term goal is to get the launchprice down to about $10 million dollars per launch.
一旦实现 SpaceX将对航天产业产生重大影响
While the company has already made a significantimpact on the space industry, a launch price
这将彻底改变关于太空的各种设想
as low as this would fundamentally changewhat’s possible in space.
真正的外太空旅游将成为可能 商业卫星将无处不在
Real space tourism would become feasible,commercial satellites would become downright
将前所未有的拉近与外太空的距离
commonplace, and Space would become closerthan it’s ever been.
不过SpaceX也遇到了点问题
But SpaceX does have a bit of a problem—
即使价格下降也不会增加火箭的销量
peoplearen’t really buying more rocket launches even though prices are down.
这是个价格无弹性的市场
It’s what’s known as a price inelasticmarket.
它与特斯拉不同 电动交通市场价格越低
That’s the opposite of Tesla and the electricvehicle market where lower prices lead to
销量就会越高
huge increases in sales.
太空发射市场的问题在于它没有消费者市场
The problem with the space launch market isthat it is not a consumer market—normal
一般人不会为火箭发射而付费
people don’t buy rocket launches.
政府会购买 不过因为花的不是决策者自己的钱
Governments buy rocket launches and they don’tcare about price nearly as much as people
所以他们也就不会像个人那样在乎价格
since it’s not the decision makers’ money.
例如 美国空军为了国防安全
The US Air Force, for example, decides theyneed to launch a certain number of satellites
每年都会发射几颗卫星 他们就会因此不惜代价
each year for the national security reasonsand they’ll pay whatever it takes.
而伊隆·马斯克的人生目标是去火星
But Elon Musk’s life goal is to get humanityto Mars—
这也是SpaceX存在的原因 他需要钱来实现目标
that’s why SpaceX exists—and he needs money to do it.
很多钱
Lots of money.
所以 SpaceX进入了互联网商业
So, SpaceX is getting into the internet business.
它正在建造卫星群 用以提高
The company is actively developing a satelliteconstellation that would provide high-speed
世界各地的网速
internet to anywhere on earth.
地球低轨道将有成百上千的小卫星 这样世界各地就可
Thousands of small satellites would be putinto low earth orbit and then anyone worldwide
利用并不昂贵的地面接收器连上网络了
could hook into the network using an inexpensiveground receiver.
如果SpaceX在计划服务区域的70亿人中只获得5千万的使用者
If SpaceX got just 50 million users out ofthe 7 billion in its proposed service area,
那么这项业务每年也可以带来3百亿的利润
this business could bring in $30 billion dollarsa year.
SpaceX会自主研制发射卫星
Since SpaceX would be building and launchingthe satellites themselves, costs would be
这样成本也会比其他竞争者大大降低
dramatically lower than the competition’s.
SpaceX的整个商业形势本质上就是
The whole commercial aspect of SpaceX essentiallyexists
为马斯克未来的太空探索项目募集资金
to fund Musk’s future space exploration projects
因此 SpaceX和上市公司特斯拉不一样
For that reason, SpaceX is not a public companylike Tesla.
马斯克并不指望SpaceX挣钱 他只想去火星
Elon Musk does not want to make money withSpaceX, he wants to get to Mars.
他要的并不是股民的感激和收益率
He does not want to be beholden to shareholdersand profitability.
马斯克曾在公众场合说过 SpaceX并不会面相公众
Musk has therefore publicly said that SpaceXwill not go public until the company achieves
除非公司达成可定期往返火星的目标
regular flights to and from mars and thanksto the entrepreneur’s understanding of basic
多亏了他自身对基本经济观念的理解 这一目标指日可待了
economics, that might not be too far off.
如果你正准备创业 你不仅需要懂点基本经济知识
If you’re looking to start a company, you’llneed not only an understanding of basic economics
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如果有你想用于商业 油管频道或其他地方的名字
If you have a name you want to use for yourbusiness, your YouTube channel, or anything
赶紧买下这个域名 以防被别人购买
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你也可以利用域名以合理价格建立专业的邮件地址
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Hover is what I use for my domains since itjust works and you should too by heading over
你也应该去hover.com/wendover了
to Hover.com/wendover.

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