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地球,两度升温

Earth, Two Degrees Warmer

没有什么比周五来份一针见血的气候报告更值的了
Nothing says Friday like a hard-hitting report on climate change!
《自然气候变化》杂志这周发表了一篇新的关于气候变化的重要预测
A new, pretty serious climate change forecast came out this week in the journal Nature Climate Change,
文章说本世纪地球平均温度
and it suggests there’s a 95% chancethe Earth’s average temperature
将有95%的可能性升温超过两摄氏度
will increase more than two degrees Celsius this century.
这不是个好消息 但或许阻止它还为时不晚
And that isn’t great news, but there might still be time to stop it.
但你听到科学家大谈限制气候变化时
When you hear scientists talk about limiting climate change,
应该经常能听到
you usually hear something about
如何才能不使地球升温两摄氏度多
how we shouldn’t let the Earth warm by more than two degrees Celsius.
他们的意思是我们必须确保在本世纪
What they mean by this is that we should make sure that, this century,
地球平均温度不能比工业革命前期水平高两度
the Earth’s average temperature doesn’t get more than two degrees hotter than pre-industrial levels,
也就是不能比19世纪末全球平均温度高两度
or the average global temperature before the late 1800s,
那时均温在14摄氏度左右
which was around 14 degrees Celsius.
温度升高几度听起来也不算多
A couple of degrees may not sound like a lot,
尤其是考虑到天气变化一直发生 每天的温差都远不止这个数
especially because the weather changes by more than that all the time, like day to day.
但是全球平均温度通常是比较稳定的
But the average global temperature is usually really stable
也不会出现超过一度左右的变化
and doesn’t change by more than a degree or so.
两度的升温通常就被认为是重要的基准线
Two degrees is generally considered the major benchmark because
因为这样的升温足以
that would be enough of a temperature change
对人类生活产生严重且长期影响
to have serious, long-term impacts on human life.
这会导致诸如洪水 极端热浪 干旱等灾难
It would lead to things like flooding,extreme heatwaves, and droughts,
进而使得人类种植作物更加举步维艰
which could make it harder for us to grow enough food,
还会带来其他难题 (似乎这还不够应付似的)
among other problems-as if that wasn’t enough-.
但即使是让全球升温保持在两度以下也是不够的
But even keeping global warming under two degrees isn’t really enough,
因为对许多小岛国来讲海平面升高会是个难题
because rising sea levels would be a problem for a lot of small island nations.
因此我们希望全力以赴达到1.5度的目标
So there’s a stretch goal of 1.5 degrees.
悲催的是现在已经比工业革命前升高了一度
Unfortunately, we’re already one degree warmer than pre-industrial days,
恐怕我们已经没有许多回旋的余地了
so we don’t have a lot of wiggle room.
另外 这份新的报告也显得不是很乐观
And on top of that, this new study isn’t too optimistic.
通过分许大量数据分析 研究者预估
After doing a lot of statistics, researchers suggested that there’s only a 5% chance
到2100年地球升温不超过两度的可能性只有5%
the Earth won’t warm more than 2 degrees by 2100,
要达到我们制定的宏伟目标1.5度 可能性只有1%
and only a 1% chance we’ll meet the more ambitious 1.5 degree goal.
相反 我们也关注了升温二到五度的情况
Instead, we’re looking at an increase of between two and five degrees,
也就是说热浪 干旱 风暴和海平面上升的情况要更严重
meaning heat waves, drought, storms, and rising sea levels will all become a lot more severe.
无论是呼吸的空气质量还是食物价格都会受影响
Everything from the quality of our air to the price of our food will be affected,
温度升高的越高 带来的影响也就越难恢复
and those changes will get harder to reverse the higher that temperature gets.
这份研究结果也不会让人大惊小怪
Now, the results of this study aren’t that surprising,
他们或多或少和之前的分析结果都是吻合的
they’re more or less in line with the results of previous analyses.
但他们说我们比之前所想的更接近边缘
But they show we’re closer to the brink than we’d like to believe.
这份新研究的数据主要以三个因素为依据 一 世界人口
The statistics for the new study were based on three factors: world population;
二 人均国内生产总值也就是GDP 它衡量了一个国家的人均经济产出
per capita Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, which measures a country’s economic output per person;
三 碳强度 即该国每产出一美元排放的CO2含量
and carbon intensity, which is the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for every dollar a country generates.
数据以过去五年的变化趋势为基础
The data were based on trends from the past fifty years,
也包含了最新联合国对世界人口的预测
including new United Nations projections for the world population.
联合国预测世界人口到2100年将达到110亿
The UN numbers predict the Earth’s population will be about 11 billion people by 2100,
而且增加人口大部分将在撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲
and that most of that increase will be in Sub-Saharan Africa.
但那些国家比世界其他地区使用的化石燃料少很多
But those countries use much less fossil fuel than the rest of the world,
即使到2100年 他们对世界CO2排放量预估也只占到约6%
and even by 2100, they’re expected to contribute only about 6% of the world’s CO2 emissions.
因此人口增加或许对温室气体排放影响很小
So population growth will probably have a small effect on greenhouse gas emissions.
当然这也不是说让其他国家开始削减GDP
It isn’t really a great idea for countries to start cutting their GDP, either,
如果想降低温室气体排放量主要还是看碳强度
so if we want to lower greenhouse gas emissions, the main thing to focus on is carbon intensity.
多亏了新制定的全球排放标准
Thanks to new emissions standards around the world,
碳强度应该会以每年约1.9%的速度下降
carbon intensity should decrease by around 1.9% per year,
这是个不错的开头
which is a great start!
但这对阻止地球升温超过两度来说也是不够的
But that still won’t be enough to stop the planet from warming more than two degrees
碳强度持续下降的速度将决定着我们的未来
and how fast carbon intensity continues to drop will determine our future.
而目前 下个世纪碳强度所在的可能范围还很宽泛
Right now, there’s a wide range of possible carbon intensities over the next century, but
到底会发生什么还是要依靠科技进步和环境规则
what actually happens will depend on technological advances and environmental regulations.
现在的预测看起来或许不那么乐观
The forecast may not look great right now,
但也要知道这份报告并不意味着
but it’s important to remember that this study doesn’t mean
到2100年地球绝对会升高超过两度
the planet will absolutely, definitely warm by more than two degrees by 2100.
研究者说 两度的目标还是有可能实现的
The researchers say the two degree goal might still be possible,
但必须如他们所说的 经过“持续巨大的努力”
but only, in their words, with “major, sustained effort.”
所以呢 在未来80年里我们要做的事情还很多
So, we’ve got a lot of work to do in the next 80 years.
尤其是所有的科学家和工程师都在朝着这个目标在努力
Especially, I gotta say all the scientists and engineers out there, making this stuff happen.
感谢收看本期《科学秀新闻》
Thanks for watching this episode of SciShow News.
如果你想了解更多气候变化的情况
If you’d like to learn more about climate science
或者想知道科学家们觉得什么能帮我们解决困境
and what some scientists think could help us out,
可以看看我们关于如何拯救地球的视频
you can watch our video about how to save Earth from us.

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视频概述

两度的升温听起来不算什么,可要知道这对地球平均气温来讲,可是个大新闻了

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

丁满

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审核团MG

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PERCDA7CQjY

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