– It’s been 10 years since the Great Recession,
which is commonly blamed on banks extending too many loans
to low income borrowers with high risk of default,
now known as the subprime mortgage crisis.
But Manuel Adelino, a finance professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business,
found that narrative doesn’t fit the facts.
Adelino and his co-authors reviewed nationwide income,
home sales, and mortgage data from the years
全国收入 国内销售 和抵押贷款数据
before and during the financial crisis.
First, they found there wasn’t an explosion
of credit offered to lower income borrowers.
Credit expanded across the board,
most drastically in areas where house prices were rising the most.
In fact, they found home ownership rates among
the poorest 20% fell during the boom,
because those buyers were being priced out of the market.
Nor did they find the crisis was caused by
defaults among subprime borrowers.
Instead, Adelino found the numerous bank failures and subsequent recession
were caused by middle and high income borrowers,
including speculators buying up houses to sell for profit,
who began defaultingat unprecedented rates.
The researchers found that because lower income borrowers
were buying less expensive houses and in smaller numbers,
there simply weren’t enough of them to topple banks
and cause the economy’s subsequent collapse.
然而 不幸的是 监管机构听信了关于次贷危机的说法
Unfortunately, however, regulators bought into the subprime narrative
and reacted by making it harder for lower income Americans to get credit,
just as house prices were low.
As a result, home ownership among that population
has collapsed since the crisis.
This has not helped anyone get on the property ladder
and the researchers found it has not added
any stability to the banking system either.