大萧条已经过去10年了
– It’s been 10 years since the Great Recession,
人们通常将其归咎于银行
which is commonly blamed on banks extending too many loans
大量发放贷款给具有高违约风险的低收入借款人
to low income borrowers with high risk of default,
（大萧条）现在被称为次贷危机
now known as the subprime mortgage crisis.
但是曼纽尔•阿德利诺 杜克大学富科商学院的金融学教授
But Manuel Adelino, a finance professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business,
发现关于次贷危机的叙述与事实不符
found that narrative doesn’t fit the facts.
阿德利诺与其合著者查看了
Adelino and his co-authors reviewed nationwide income,
金融危机发生前几年的
home sales, and mortgage data from the years
全国收入 国内销售 和抵押贷款数据
before and during the financial crisis.
首先 他们发现向低收入贷款者
First, they found there wasn’t an explosion
提供的信贷没有呈现爆炸式增长
of credit offered to lower income borrowers.
信贷扩张至全国
Credit expanded across the board,
房价上涨幅度最大的地区发放的贷款最多
most drastically in areas where house prices were rising the most.
实际上 他们发现在经济繁荣时期
In fact, they found home ownership rates among
20％的贫困人口 住房拥有率下降了
the poorest 20% fell during the boom,
这些购房者因房价过高被挤出了市场
because those buyers were being priced out of the market.
他们也没有发现危机是
Nor did they find the crisis was caused by
由于次级贷款者违约造成的
defaults among subprime borrowers.
相反 阿德利诺发现大量银行破产和随之而来的衰退
Instead, Adelino found the numerous bank failures and subsequent recession
是由中 高收入贷款者造成的
were caused by middle and high income borrowers,
包括投机商为了获利而大量购买房屋
including speculators buying up houses to sell for profit,
又开始以前所未有的速度违约
who began defaultingat unprecedented rates.
研究人员发现 因为低收入贷款者
The researchers found that because lower income borrowers
买的是少量且不那么贵的房屋
were buying less expensive houses and in smaller numbers,
他们不足以使银行倒闭
there simply weren’t enough of them to topple banks
也无法导致后来的经济崩塌
and cause the economy’s subsequent collapse.
然而 不幸的是 监管机构听信了关于次贷危机的说法
Unfortunately, however, regulators bought into the subprime narrative
这直接导致了低收入美国人群更难得到贷款
and reacted by making it harder for lower income Americans to get credit,
就像房价很低似的
just as house prices were low.
结果 这部分人群房屋持有率
As a result, home ownership among that population
由于危机爆发而骤降
has collapsed since the crisis.
这并没有帮助任何人进入房地产市场
This has not helped anyone get on the property ladder
研究人员发现
and the researchers found it has not added
这也没有使银行系统变得更稳定
any stability to the banking system either.