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不要畏惧人工智能

Don't fear intelligent machines. Work with them | Garry Kasparov

值得传播的思想
This story begins in 1985,
故事发生在1895年
when at age 22,
那时候我22岁
I became the World Chess Champion
打败了阿纳托里•卡尔波夫
after beating Anatoly Karpov.
获得国际象棋世界冠军
Earlier that year,
那年早些时候
I played what is called simultaneous exhibition
我在德国汉堡参加了一场车轮战
against 32 of the world’s best chess-playing machines
与世界上棋下得最好的32个机器人
in Hamburg, Germany.
轮番对弈
I won all the games,
我全都赢了
and then it was not considered much of a surprise
那时候 人们并不把我可以同时打败
that I could beat 32 computers at the same time.
32个机器人当成一件多意外的事
To me, that was the golden age.
那是我的黄金时期
(Laughter)
[大笑]
Machines were weak,
机器人实在是太弱了
and my hair was strong.
而且我的头发还很茂盛
(Laughter)
[大笑]
Just 12 years later,
短短十二年之后
I was fighting for my life against just one computer
我要在一场比赛中奋力一搏 与仅仅一台电脑
in a match
进行对决
called by the cover of “Newsweek”
《新闻周刊》封面称这场对决为
“The Brain’s Last Stand.”
“人类大脑的背水一战”
No pressure.
一点压力都没有
(Laughter)
[大笑]
From mythology to science fiction,
从神话到科幻小说
human versus machine
人类与机器人的对抗
has been often portrayed as a matter of life and death.
总被描述为生死攸关的问题
John Henry
约翰•亨利
called the steel-driving man
所谓的钢铁男子汉
in the 19th century African American folk legend,
19世纪美国民间传说中的黑人英雄
was pitted in a race
与蒸汽动力钻头
against a steam-powered hammer
展开了殊死较量
bashing a tunnel through mountain rock.
比赛从山岩中开出一条隧道
John Henry’s legend is a part of a long historical narrative
约翰•亨利的传奇是人与科技对峙主题的
pitting humanity versus technology.
漫长历史叙事中的一部分
And this competitive rhetoric is standard now.
现在这种人机竞争已经成为常态
We are in a race against the machines,
我们处于和机器的竞赛中
in a fight or even in a war.
处于斗争 甚至是战争中
Jobs are being killed off.
就业岗位数量下降
People are being replaced as if they had vanished from the Earth.
人类被机器取代 仿佛从地球上消失了
It’s enough to think that the movies like “The Terminator” or “The Matrix”
只要想想《终结者》或《黑客帝国》这样的电影
are nonfiction.
已不再虚幻就足够了
There are very few instances of an arena
人类的身心能与电脑或机器人
where the human body and mind can compete on equal terms
进行平等较量 这样的情况
with a computer or a robot.
非常少见
Actually, I wish there were a few more.
实际上我希望可以有更多
Instead,
相反
it was my blessing and my curse
当我成为这场人们如今仍在讨论的
to literally become the proverbial man
人机大战中的传奇人物时
in the man versus machine competition
这场比赛对我来说
that everybody is still talking about.
既是幸运 也是诅咒
In the most famous human-machine competition since John Henry,
在这场继约翰•亨利以来最有名的人机竞赛中
I played two matches
我和IBM公司的
against the IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue.
超级计算机深蓝有了两次交锋
Nobody remembers that I won the first match —
没人记得我第一次赢了
(Laughter)
[大笑]
(Applause)
[鼓掌声]
In Philadelphia, before losing the rematch the following year in New York.
那是在费城 第二年纽约赛落败之前
But I guess that’s fair.
但我觉得挺公平的
There is no staying history, special calendar entries
人们不会把埃德蒙·希拉里和丹增·诺尔盖
for all the people who failed to climb Mt. Everest
成功登顶珠穆朗玛峰之前的
before Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay
失败者的名单费心记录在
made it to the top.
特殊的日历表上
And in 1997, I was still the world champion
1997年 我仍然是世界冠军
when chess computers finally came of age.
而彼时国际象棋机器人终于发展成熟了
I was Mt. Everest,
我就是那座珠穆朗玛峰
and Deep Blue reached the summit.
而深蓝登上了峰顶
I should say of course, not that Deep Blue did it,
当然了 我应该说 不是深蓝做到了
but its human creators —
而是它的人类创造者做到了
Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu.
阿南塔拉曼 肯贝尔 霍恩 许峰雄
Hats off to them.
向他们致敬
As always, machine’s triumph was a human triumph,
一如既往 机器人的胜利就是人的胜利
something we tend to forget when humans are surpassed by our own creations.
我们被自己的创造打败时 总是忘记这一点
Deep Blue was victorious,
深蓝曾经胜利了
but was it intelligent?
但它是智慧的吗
No, no it wasn’t,
不 它不是
at least not in the way Alan Turing and other founders of computer science
至少不是艾伦•图灵和其他计算机科学创始人
had hoped.
所希望的那样
It turned out that chess could be crunched by brute force,
结果证明 只要硬件运行速度够快
once hardware got fast enough
运算法则足够高明
and algorithms got smart enough.
国际象棋就可能被强力破解
Although by the definition of the output,
虽然按照“输出”的定义
grandmaster-level chess,
按照大师级国际象棋的定义
Deep Blue was intelligent.
深蓝是智慧的
But even at the incredible speed,
但是 即便以它每秒
200 million positions per second,
计算两亿步的惊人速度来看
Deep Blue’s method
深蓝的算法
provided little of the dreamed-of insight into the mysteries of human intelligence.
仅窥见了人类智慧之谜中的极少一部分
Soon,
不久以后
machines will be taxi drivers
机器会成为我们的出租车司机
and doctors and professors,
医生和教师
but will they be “intelligent?”
但它们会变成“智慧”的吗?
I would rather leave these definitions
我更愿意把这种定义的工作
to the philosophers and to the dictionary.
交到哲学家和词典编纂者的手中
What really matters is how we humans
真正重要的是 我们人类
feel about living and working with these machines.
怎样在生活和工作中与机器共存
When I first met Deep Blue in 1996 in February,
1996年2月第一次见到深蓝时
I had been the world champion for more than 10 years,
我稳居世界冠军之位已经10年多了
and I had played 182 world championship games
我参加过182场世界冠军大赛
and hundreds of games against other top players in other competitions.
在其他竞赛中和顶级选手对战过上百次
I knew what to expect from my opponents
我知道我的对手是什么样的
and what to expect from myself.
也知道自己是什么样的
I was used to measure their moves
我常常通过观察他们的肢体语言
and to gauge their emotional state
看他们的眼睛 来预测他们的行动
by watching their body language and looking into their eyes.
判断他们的情绪状态
And then I sat across the chessboard from Deep Blue.
然后 我坐在了深蓝的对面
I immediately sensed something new,
我马上意识到了不同
something unsettling.
我有麻烦了
You might experience a similar feeling
你也许也有过同样的感觉
the first time you ride in a driverless car
你第一次开无人驾驶汽车或工作时
or the first time your new computer manager issues an order at work.
新电脑上司第一次给你发布了一条指令
But when I sat at that first game,
然而初赛时我坐在深蓝对面
I couldn’t be sure
我根本无法确定
what is this thing capable of.
对面这个家伙可以做什么
Technology can advance in leaps, and IBM had invested heavily.
技术能飞速进步而且IBM公司投资巨大
I lost that game.
于是我输了
And I couldn’t help wondering,
我不禁想弄清楚
might it be invincible?
它是不可战胜的吗?
Was my beloved game of chess over?
我挚爱的西洋棋要完了吗?
These were human doubts, human fears,
这是人类的疑虑 人类的恐惧
and the only thing I knew for sure
我唯一能确定的是
was that my opponent Deep Blue had no such worries at all.
我的对手深蓝 根本没有这样的担心
(Laughter)
[大笑]
I fought back
被毁灭性地打击后
after this devastating blow
我重整旗鼓
to win the first match,
我赢了第一局比赛
but the writing was on the wall.
但不幸的预兆已经显现了
I eventually lost to the machine
最终 我被机器人打败了
but I didn’t suffer the fate of John Henry
但我没有遭遇和约翰•亨利一样的命运
who won but died with his hammer in his hand.
他虽然赢了但也死了 死时手中还攥着锤子
It turned out that the world of chess
最后的结果是 国际象棋界
still wanted to have a human chess champion.
仍然想要拥有一个人类国际象棋冠军
And even today,
甚至在今天
when a free chess app on the latest mobile phone
即使最新款的手机里有免费的国际象棋软件
is stronger than Deep Blue,
拥有比深蓝更厉害的计算能力
people are still playing chess,
人们还是会下国际象棋
even more than ever before.
甚至比以前兴趣更甚
Doomsayers predicted that nobody would touch the game
悲观主义者说 没人会去碰一个
that could be conquered by the machine,
自己注定会被机器人打败的游戏
and they were wrong, proven wrong,
事实证明 他们都错了
but doomsaying has always been a popular pastime
但是谈到科技的时候
when it comes to technology.
末世说仍是甚嚣尘上的消遣
What I learned from my own experience
我从自己的经历中学到的是
is that we must face our fears
我们必须面对自己的恐惧
if we want to get the most out of our technology,
如果我们想充分利用科技
and we must conquer those fears
想激发人类的最大潜能
if we want to get the best out of our humanity.
就必须要克服恐惧
While licking my wounds,
我反省自己时
I got a lot of inspiration
从和深蓝的对战中
from my battles against Deep Blue.
得到了许多启示
As the old Russian saying goes, if you can’t beat them, join them.
就像古老的俄罗斯谚语说的“打不过 就加入他们吧”
Then I thought,
接着我想到
what if I could play with a computer —
如果在我和电脑对弈时 我的身边
together with a computer at my side, combining our strengths,
有一台电脑和我并肩作战会怎么样呢
human intuition plus machine’s calculation,
人类的直觉加上机器的计算能力
human strategy, machine tactics,
人类的计谋加上机器的策略
human experience, machine’s memory.
人类的经验加上机器的记忆功能
Could it be the perfect game ever played?
这会是史上最完美的比赛吗?
My idea came to life
1998年 我的想法成真了
in 1998 under the name of Advanced Chess
以高级国际象棋赛的名义 我和另一位
when I played this human-plus-machine competition against another elite player.
精英棋手进行了人机结合的国际象棋比赛
But in this first experiment,
但在第一次实验中
we both failed to combine human and machine skills effectively.
我们都没能有效地发挥人机结合的优势
Advanced Chess found its home on the internet,
高级国际象棋赛发迹于网络
and in 2005, a so-called freestyle chess tournament
2005年一个所谓的自由式国际象棋锦标赛
produced a revelation.
给了我启发
A team of grandmasters and top machines participated,
大师级棋手队和超级电脑参加了锦标赛
but the winners were not grandmasters,
但赢的既不是大师级棋手
not a supercomputer.
也不是超级电脑
The winners were a pair of amateur American chess players
而是两个美国的业余国际象棋手
operating three ordinary PCs at the same time.
他们同时操纵三台普通电脑就大获全胜
Their skill of coaching their machines
他们运用电脑的技巧有效地打败了
effectively counteracted the superior chess knowledge
大师级对手的卓越象棋知识
of their grandmaster opponents
以及其他超级电脑
and much greater computational power of others.
更加优越的计算能力
And I reached this formulation.
于是我得到了这个公式
A weak human player plus a machine
一个弱小的人类棋手加上机器
plus a better process is superior
再加上更好的处理器就会比单独一个
to a very powerful machine alone,
非常强大的机器要更厉害
but more remarkably, is superior to a strong human player
更值得注意的是 比一个强大的人类棋手
plus machine
加上机器和低级处理器
and an inferior process.
还要更加厉害
This convinced me that we would need
这使我相信 我们需要
better interfaces to help us coach our machines
更好的界面来帮助我们的机器人学习
towards more useful intelligence.
以掌握更多有用的智能
Human plus machine isn’t the future,
人机结合不是未来
it’s the present.
而是现在
Everybody that’s used online translation
每一个利用在线翻译来获取
to get the gist of a news article from a foreign newspaper,
外国报纸的新闻梗概的人都知道
knowing its far from perfect.
在线翻译的水平远不是完美的
Then we use our human experience
但我们可以利用自己的人类经验
to make sense out of that,
去弄明白译文的意思
and then the machine learns from our corrections.
接着机器从我们修正的内容中学习
This model is spreading and investing in medical diagnosis, security analysis.
这种模式正被广泛应用于医学诊断和安全性分析中
The machine crunches data,
机器处理数据
calculates probabilities,
计算概率
gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent,
完成了80% 90%的工作
making it easier for analysis
使得人类的分析和决策工作
and decision-making of the human part.
变得更加容易
But you are not going to send your kids
但你不会开一辆精准度在90%的
to school in a self-driving car with 90 percent accuracy,
自动驾驶汽车送孩子去上学
even with 99 percent.
即使是99%也不行
So we need a leap forward
因此我们仍需一次技术飞跃
to add a few more crucial decimal places.
来提高精确度
Twenty years after my match with Deep Blue,
在我和深蓝第二次比赛的
second match,
二十年后
this sensational “The Brain’s Last Stand” headline
轰动一时的“人脑的背水一战”
has become commonplace
也成了老生常谈
as intelligent machines
因为智能机器
move
渗透进了
in every sector, seemingly every day.
各个领域之中的日常生活中
But unlike in the past,
但 与过去不同
when machines replaced
那时机器取代了
farm animals, manual labor,
农场动物和手工劳动力
now they are coming after people with college degrees
而现在 它们在取代大学生和
and political influence.
有政治影响力的人
And as someone who fought machines and lost,
作为一个挑战机器最终失败了的人
I am here to tell you this is excellent, excellent news.
我在这里告诉你们 这是个极好极好的消息
Eventually, every profession
最终 每一种职业的人
will have to feel these pressures
都必将感受到这种压力
or else it will mean humanity has ceased to make progress.
否则就意味着人类已经停止进步了
We don’t
技术的脚步
get to choose
何时何地停滞
when and where technological progress stops.
我们无法选择
We cannot
但我们不能
slow down.
慢下来
In fact,
实际上
we have to speed up.
我们不得不加快速度
Our technology excels at removing
我们的科技善于从我们的生活中
difficulties and uncertainties from our lives,
排除难题和不确定因素
and so we must seek out
所以我们必须面对
ever more difficult,
更加困难
ever more uncertain challenges.
更加不确定的挑战
Machines have
机器
calculations.
有计算能力
We have understanding.
而我们有理解力
Machines have instructions.
机器遵循指令
We have purpose.
而我们有意志力
Machines have
机器有
objectivity.
客观性
We have passion.
而我们有激情
We should not worry about what our machines can do today.
我们不应该担心 今天机器可以做什么
Instead, we should worryabout what they still cannot do today,
相反 我们应该担心 它不能做到什么
because we will need the help of the new, intelligent machines
因为我们将会需要新的智能机器来帮助我们
to turn our grandest dreams into reality.
把最伟大的梦想变为现实
And if we fail,
如果我们失败了
if we fail, it’s not because our machines are too intelligent,
如果我们失败了 不是因为我们的机器太智能了
or not intelligent enough.
或者不够智能
If we fail, it’s because we grew complacent
如果我们失败了 那是因为我们越来越自满
and limited our ambitions.
进而限制了我们的宏图壮志
Our humanity is not defined by any skill,
我们的人性不能被任何像
like swinging a hammer or even playing chess.
挥动锤子或者下国际象棋的技能所定义
There’s one thing only a human can do.
人类能做的唯有一事
That’s dream.
那就是去梦想
So let us dream big.
所以 要梦就梦个大的
Thank you.
感谢倾听
(Applause)
[鼓掌]

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视频概述

不要畏惧人工智能,尽情地利用技术去实现梦想吧!

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NP8xt8o4_5Q

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