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拯救更多生命会导致人口过剩?

Does saving more lives lead to overpopulation?

拯救更多生命会导致人口过剩吗?
Does saving more lives lead to over population?
在年度公开信中
In this year ’ s Annual Letter,
梅琳达和我选择了最尖锐的问题
Melinda and I take the toughest questions we get asked
并在此给出我们的答案
and give our answers.
这个问题很早就有人问过了
One that ’ s come up for a long time is,
“如果人们越来越健康
“As we make the world healthier,
世界人口会不会过剩?
is the population going to get so big
粮食变得不够吃? 现有的生存环境
that feeding everybody and maintaining the environment
也无法维持?”
is going to be impossible?”
桌子上的表格
Here we can see a chart
显示了过去几百年来的
that looks at the total world population
世界人口总量变化
over the last several hundred years.
乍一看 还挺吓人
And at first glance, this is a bit scary.
1800年 人口总量还不及10亿
We go from less than a billion in 1800,
然后30亿 40 50 60
and then 3, 4, 5, 6
再到如今的74亿
and 7.4 billion we are today
增长速度越来越快
is happening even faster.
梅琳达和我也不禁思考
So Melinda and I wondered
研制新药 挽救儿童
whether providing new medicines and keeping children alive,
是否真的会导致人口过剩?
would that create more of a population problem?
不过我们发现 随着健康水平的提高
What we found out is that as health improves,
人们会选择少生孩子
families choose to have less children,
戏剧性的是
and this effect is very, very dramatic,
我们发现这一规律在所有国家中都存在
We find that in every country of the world, this is repeated.
随着健康水平的提高 人口增长率会下降
The population growth goes down as we improve health.
所以我们将全球人口增长表格
So we’ve taken that chart that shows the global population growth,
一直延伸到2100年
and we’ve actually extended it out all the way to 2100.
我们不难发现人口总数的增长逐渐平缓
And we can see that instead of continuing,
而不是持续增长
it actually flattens out.
在人口增长率的曲线中也可以看出端倪
Another way to see that is through this rate of population growth.
你可以看到 在60年代
And you can see that in the 60s,
世界人口年增长率超过2%
that reached a pretty high number over 2% per year,
而后逐年下降
and it’s now come way, way down.
就目前而言 110亿人口不是个小数目
Now, 11 billion people is still a lot,
但好消息是 健康水平提升得越快
but the good news is that the faster we improve health,
家庭成员总数降得越快
the faster family size goes down.
因此 我们会对拯救更多生命而感到骄傲
And so, we can feel great about saving those lives.

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视频概述

盖茨亲自解答:人口增长与健康改善有什么关系?

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

YUNA

审核员

审核员 AF

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obRG-2jurz0

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