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极端天气是气候变化导致的吗?

Does Climate Change Cause Extreme Weather?

(groovy music)
[有律动感的音乐]
– Yo, we’re in the middle of a serious heat wave.
噢 我们像在热浪中一样
It’s been like 90 degrees all week.
整个星期都是90℉
– Climate change, Miles,
气候变化 Miles
– climate change.
都是因为气候变化
– It’s freezing.
冷死了
Is this rain ever gonna stop?
这雨还会停吗?
– Climate change, Miles,
气候变化 Miles
– climate change.
都是因为气候变化
– Whoa, so you mean to tell me when it’s cold and wet,
所以这天气又冷又潮湿的时候
it’s climate change?
你告诉我这是气候变化?
And when it’s hot and dry,
还有这天气又热又干的时候
it’s climate change?
也是因为气候变化?
So is climate change to blame, or what?
所以这是气候变化造成的 还是另有原因?
《喧嚣之上》
– When people hear climate change,
当人们听到气候变化
most think global warming;
大多数人都会想到全球变暖
the increase in the average surface temperature of the earth,
也就是地球表面平均温度的上升
mostly due to humans burning fossil fuels.
这主要是因为人类燃烧化石燃料
This traps carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,
导致大量二氧化碳排放到大气中
absorbing radiation and preventing it from escaping into outer space,
并吸收辐射 阻挡辐射返回外太空
which means the earth is slowly getting hotter over time.
也就是意味着地球温度逐渐升高
Climate change is bigger than that, though.
然而 气候变化的影响不仅如此
It includes global warming, and all of the potential side effects,
包括全球变暖以及所有潜在的副作用
like melting glaciers or frequent droughts.
比如冰川融化或者常年干旱
The climate and weather are not the same thing.
气候和天气并不是同一个概念
I repeat, not the same thing.
我再强调一次 它们不一样
The difference is a measure of time.
区别在于时间的长短
Weather reflects changes in the atmosphere over a period of days or weeks,
天气反映了大气层在几天或几周内的变化
while climate is how the atmosphere behaves over really long periods of time,
而气候是大气在很长一段时间内的变化
like decades or centuries even.
比如几十年甚至几个世纪
Scientists have accepted climate change as a general phenomenon.
科学家已接受气候变化是一种普遍现象
But some politicians in Washington still don’t quite grasp the concept.
但是华盛顿的一些政客仍然没有完全理解这个概念
– The world is really not warming.
全球并没有变暖
– Much of climate science today appears to be based more on exaggeration.
如今许多气候科学似乎更多地建立在夸大其词的基础上
– We keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record.
我们一直听说2014年是有记录以来最热的一年
I ask the chair, you know what this is?
我问主席 你知道这是什么吗?
It’s a snowball.
这是雪球
– So, what about specific,actual, freaky weather events
那如何解释那些特有的真实的恶劣天气呢?
like Hurricane Harvey in Texas,
比如德克萨斯州的哈维飓风
or droughts in California?
或者加利福尼亚州的旱灾呢?
Major disasters like these are called extreme weather events.
像这样的重大灾难被称为极端天气事件
So this big question is,
所以关键问题是
does climate change cause extreme weather?
气候变化会导致极端天气吗?
– The short answer is that climate change influences extreme weather,
简短来说 气候变化的确会影响极端天气
but it’s not as simple as one thing causing the other.
但它们的关系并非因果那么简单
Let’s start with what we do know.
我们先谈谈目前已知的情况吧
Extreme weather is on the rise.
极端天气日益严重
A recent study found that worldwide,
最近的一项研究发现 在世界范围内
there were almost two and a half times more extreme weather events
本世纪头十年的极端天气事件
in the first decade of this century than in the 1980’s.
几乎是20世纪80年代的2.5倍
To help tease out the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events,
为了帮助梳理气候变化和极端天气事件之间的关系
climate scientists have started using a thing
气象学家开始研究
called attribution science.
“归因科学”
And what is that? You might ask.
你可能会问 那是什么?
When applied to extreme weather, attribution science breaks down
当应用到极端天气时 归因科学解释了
how much climate change influenced the event
气候变化对极端天气事件的影响程度
verses just normal variations in weather.
与天气的正常变化之间的关系
The best way to understand attribution science is to
理解归因科学的最好方法是
understand the connection between smoking and lung cancer.
理解吸烟和肺癌之间的联系
Take Katrina, for example.
以Katrina为例
She’s 60, has been a smoker her whole life,
她已经60岁了 抽了一辈子的烟
and unfortunately, has just been diagnosed with lung cancer.
不幸的是 她被诊断出患有肺癌
Now, doctors can’t say for sure that her smoking caused her lung cancer,
虽然医生还不能断言她的肺癌是由吸烟引起的
but doctors can say that her smoking great increased her chances of getting lung cancer.
但医生可以确定 她的吸烟史大大增加了她患肺癌的几率
Now, imagine Katrina as a hurricane.
那么现在 想象Katrina就是飓风
To understand the role of climate change,
为了认识气候变化的影响
scientists would need to figure out if Katrina could still happen
科学家们需要弄清楚 如果人类不再燃烧化石燃料
if humans had never burned fossil fuels.
Katrina是否仍会发生
– But, how do scientist study a world where
那么科学家该如何去研究一个并不存在的
humans don’t burn fossil fuels if that world doesn’t exist?
所谓的“人类不燃烧化石燃料”的世界?
– The answer is models.
答案是模型
I’m talking about climate models, of course.
我说的当然是气候模型
They’re basically computer programs that
它们大多是电脑程序
simulate how the earth’s climate will change over time.
模拟地球气候随时间的变化
– So, let’s say you’re trying to figure out
所以 假设你想搞清楚气候变化
if climate change played a role in Hurricane Harvey.
是否导致了哈维飓风的发生
Using attribution science, you’d essentially set up two models:
通过归因科学 你基本上可以建立两个模型
model one, the world without humans burning fossil fuels
模型一 一个没有焚烧化石燃料的世界
and model two, a world like ours today, where we do burn fossil fuels.
模型二 一个跟如今一样 焚烧化石燃料的世界
then you run the scenario millions of times in each model.
然后在每个模型中运行数百万次
In each run, you tried a different variation.
每一次 你都尝试了不同的变化
What you get is a probability,
你得到的是一种可能性
how likely the hurricane was to occur in a world without humans,
飓风在没有人类的世界里发生的可能性
verses the world as it exists today.
和现在发生的可能性的对比
In general, climate change models can’t tell us if climate change is
一般来说 气候变化模型不能告诉我们
the cause of any particular extreme weather event,
气候变化是否是任何特定极端天气事件的原因
but they do indicate that climate change is making those events more severe.
但它们的确表明 气候变化正使这些事件变得更加严重
Climate change is causing higher sea levels and warmer waters,
气候变化导致海平面上升和海水变暖
and that’s leading to stronger hurricanes and heavier rain fall.
这就造成了更强的飓风和更多的降雨
Going forward, the overwhelming scientific consensus is
长远来看 不可否认的科学共识是
that if climate change continues at its current rate,
如果气候变化继续以目前的速度发展
extreme weather will only get more extreme.
极端天气只会变得更加极端
Do you think we could find a way to slow down climate change?
你觉得我们能找到减缓气候变化的方法吗?
Or should we just focus on how to deal
还是说我们应该专注于
with more extreme weather in our future?
如何应对未来更多的极端天气?
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
让我们在下方评论区看到你的想法
If you like these videos, don’t forget to subscribe,
如果你就喜欢我们的视频 不要忘记订阅喔
and check out our videos every other Wednesday.
并且每周三来看看我们的更新
Thanks guys.
谢谢大家
Peace.
再见

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视频概述

气候变化是造成极端天气的原因吗?让我们在视频中看看到底是怎么回事吧。

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4U4H5xLCoM

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