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手机会造成大脑肿瘤吗?

Do Cell Phones Cause Brain Tumors?

手机会造成大脑肿瘤吗?
Do cellphones cause brain cancer?
手机会造成大脑肿瘤吗?
Do cellphones cause brain cancer?
哇哦 这个问题好 我认为是的
woo that’s a good one.Alright I do, yeah
如果你经常用手机的话
If you on them a lot yes
绝对没什么好处的
It can’t be good for you
我以前确干过这事 你懂
I did decide to start,you know, putting the phone
当我开车的时候把手机放在一边 我会把屁股向另一边挪 防止(手机辐射)引起睾丸癌
on the side while I’m driving and my groin starts moving over there in case it is gonna cause testicular cancer
我的医生给过我这样的建议
My doctor advises it on this.
但是现在来看 手机不太可能引发癌症
Now it doesn’t seem to make sense that cell phones should cause cancer
因为它们产生的辐射是非电离的
Because the radiation they emit is non-ionizing.
也就是说它没有足够的能量 使原子或是分子释放出电子 从而对DNA造成损害
Which means it doesn’t have enough energy to rip electrons off atoms or molecules and destroy DNA.
那么手机到底是怎么使人体产生这一类的癌症呢?
so how would cell phones cause this type of cancer in them?
哦天哪,这……
oh,man that’s…
这真是一个谜
that’s black magic to me
呵呵呵呵呵呵
hehehhehehhhehehhe
手机中的辐射几乎和微波炉中的辐射强度一模一样 波长基本相等
The radiation from cellphones is almost identical to the radiation inside a microwave, the wave lengths are almost the same
大约有15厘米长 就和你的手机差不多大
about 15 centimeters long, basically the same size as your phone.
关于微波我只知道 呃 它们可以给食物加热 或者是
All I know is microwaves, they, like heat food up and like that they fry
它们可以炸活体 活的生物
They fry, like, living stuff, living organisms.
所以 也有可能它们会炸了你的大脑?
So maybe it would… Fry your brain?
慢慢地烧烤我的大脑
Barbecue my brain slowly.
呵呵呵
hehehe!
这就是为什呢 网上出现了很多 用手机做爆米花或者是煎鸡蛋的视频
This led to various internet videos where cellphones were shown popping popcorn or cooking eggs.
(但是)显然我们现在知道这是不可能的 因为一个微波炉中的能量是你手机释放的微波辐射能量的1000倍还多
Now that is obviously impossible because the amount of power in a microwave is over a thousand times the power of radiation of microwaves emitted from your cellphone.
你会因为住在一座手机信号塔旁边而担忧吗?
Would you be concerned about living near a cellphone tower?
-你觉得这会更糟糕吗……-是的 我觉得会更糟
Do you think that’s worse than just…[I would . Yeah.]
你就这么挨着它 哦 我绝对会担心的
Initially right next to it yeah, I have concerns definitely.
但是事实上:
But the truth is this:
如果你住在一个信号更好的地方
if you live in an area with better reception,
就意味着你的手机向信号塔发送信号时
that means your phone has to emit less microwaves in order to
可以发射出更少的微波
transmit to the tower.
理论上来讲 相比那些远离信号塔的人来说 距离信号塔更近 微波辐射会更小
Theoritically exposed to lower levels of microwave radiation living near tower than living far from it.
然而 有一些科学研究表明了
However, there have been some scientific studies that show
高等级的微波 比如手机释放出来的微波 可以产生热量 造成体内释放出热休克蛋白
very high level microwaves like those from a mobile phone can cause heat shock proteins to be released inside the body
这也被认为是引发癌症发作的可能原因
And it’s thought that could be related to the onset of cancer.
所以 也许研究手机对人体的生物学影响也是有原因的
so perhaps there is a reason to study the biological effects of cellphones on people.
如果你看到这样一个研究结果 会发生什么
What would happen if a study came out saying
这项研究表明 如果你经常使用手机 那你得脑瘤的概率会多出2到3倍
you were 2 or 3 times as likely develope a brain tumor if you used mobile phone regularly?
这会改变什么?
Would that change?
绝对的
Absolutely, yeah.
2到3倍实在是太大了
2 to 3 times is just massive.
我知道可能性很小 但是毕竟还是有可能的 这就好比你不希望任何人给你留下伤口 所以
I know it’s a slim odd but still the chances,like, you don’t want that type of anyone wounding on yourself, so
我绝对会尽量少用手机
definitely not use it as much.
但是如果我告诉你 研究表明
What if I told you the study has come out,
长时间使用手机 会有3倍的概率
that says over a long period of time there’s a three fold increase
导致脑瘤的发生
in brain tumors.
最近一个已发表的瑞典研究发现
A recently published swedish study found that
手机使用者会比(不使用手机的人)高出30%的患上神经胶质瘤的可能性
cellphone users were 30% more likely to develop glioma
那是恶性脑瘤中最常见的形式
That’s the most common form of malignant brain cancer.
还有更糟的:使用手机超过25年的人会有3倍的可能得这种癌症
And it gets worse:those people who’d used a cellphone over 25 years had a three fold increase in this type of cancer.
根据这项研究,以及专家意见
Due to studies like that one, and expert opinion,
世界健康组织事实上将手机辐射列入了
the world health organization actually classified cellphone radiation
可能使人体致癌的物质之中
as possibly carcinogenic to humans.
但是现在 考虑到脑癌及其的罕见
But now consider that brain cancers are exceedingly rare,
每年你有十万分之三的可能性得神经胶质瘤
in any given year you have a 3 in 100,000 chance of developing a glioma
根据瑞典的这项研究 长期使用手机
Now according to the swedish study, long term cellphone use can
会将患病几率提升到十万分之九
increase that risk up to 9 in 100,000.
虽然还是一个很小的概率 但却是很大幅的增长
Still very small risk, but a significant increase.
现在脑癌如此罕见
Now given the scarcity of brain cancers,
他们又怎么能够量化这种风险呢?
how can they really quantify this risk?
做这项实验的理想方法是执行一个随机控制的试验
The ideal way to do this experiment would be to perform a randomized control trial
在一个你能找到一群不用手机的人的地方
which is where you’ll get a group of people who don’t use cell phones,
随机的给他们中一半的人手机 让另一半继续不使用
randomly give half of them cell phones and foresee other half to live without
然后在15到25年内进行跟踪记录 看每组中都有多少人得了胶质瘤
then follow them for 15-20 years and see how many in each group develop Glioma
哦 如果没有几百万人 你(至少)需要十万人来参与试验 毕竟脑瘤实在是太罕见了
oh, and you will need hundreds of thousands if not millions of people to take part because of just how rare brain tumors are
突然你就能发现这项实验的的问题了
and immediately you can spot the problem with this experimental design
几乎每个人都有手机
virtually everyone already has a cellphone
在这个世界上 手机比人都多
I mean there are more mobile devices than are people on earth
比起一个能用的厕所 人们得到一部手机会更容易
more people have access to a cellphone than to a working toilet
所以做这项实验第二好的方法是 进行一个预测观察试验
so the next best way to do the experiment will be to perform a prospective observational study
你需要聚集一群人 跟踪记录他们几十年
In which you gather a group of people and follow them over a period of decades
监控他们的手机使用情况
monitoring their cell phone use
然后你就会发现胶质瘤发生率与手机使用量的联系了
and then you will find out how many develop Glioma and correlate that with their cell phone usage
问题在于 超级爱用手机的人可能除了使用手机 其他方面也会与别人不同
the problem is people who use their cell phone a lot may differ in other ways than just cell phone use
再加上测量问题
plus there is problem of scale
即使你花10年追踪了50000人 你可能也只能观测到20例胶质瘤的发生
even if you have followed around 50,000 people for 10 years, you’d only expected to observe 20 Gliomas
那样都不足以推断出两组之间的区别
and that’s not nearly enough to detect a difference between the groups
所以第三种实验方式 是进行病例对照的研究
so the third way to do the experiment is to perform a case control study
你要有一群患上了脑瘤的人 这是病例组
where you collect a group of people who have brain tumors those are the cases
你还要找到一群人数差不多的 但是没有患脑瘤的人
and you find a demographically very similar group who don’t have brain tumors
这就是对照组
those are the controls
然后 询问他们近几十年的生活习惯
and then you ask them about their behaviors over the previous decade
看有没有两组之间的标志性的差别
and see if they different markedly between groups
就拿脑瘤病例组来说
for example to the brain tumor cases
比对照组使用手机量要大得多
use their phones a lot more than their controls
瑞典的这项研究就是规模最大的病例对照研究之一
the Swedish study was one of these largest scale case control studies
但是也有关于这项研究算不算在计量上耍花招的问题
but there is a question about whether this study was methodologically fraud
如果你得了脑瘤 你就可能更多地想起你使用手机(的经历)
in hand side, if you get brain tumor, you might remember using your phone more
-当然-对吧 如果你没有得脑瘤 你可能很少会想起自己用手机
[of course …] then you did, if you don’t have brain tumor, you might remember using it less
现在 有几个已经完成的前瞻性调查
now there have been a few prospective studies completed
包括一个丹麦的研究
including one in Denmark
几乎动用了丹麦所有的人口
using almost the entire Danish population
和他们的手机公司的记录
and records for their cell phone companies
他们发现手机使用量和脑瘤的发生并无关系
and they found no link between cell phone usage and incidence of brain cancer
另一个前瞻性调查几乎用了一百万名英国妇女
another prospective study using almost one million women in the UK
还是没有发现关联
again found no link
所以我们应该认为……
so what we suppose to believe then
我们该相信什么?
what we suppose to believe?
这让我想
this is where I think
-我们真的需要找到正确的方法-是啊 确实是
we really need to figure out the right methodology [Yeah, exactly ]
所以你看 问题就在这里 对不对?在过去的15到20年中
so look at it, and here is the thing, right? Over the last 15 to 20 years
-几乎每一个人都用了手机 手机的使用量也持续上升 居高不下-每个人都有手机
almost everyone’s used mobile phone, mobile phone uses gonna way up.[everyone’s got one ]
所以你可以看一看在所有人口中
so you can look at the actual brain cancer rates
患脑癌的真实比率
on the overall population
如果(手机与脑瘤)之间真的有关联 你就会预料到你所在的程度
and if there is a link, you would expect that degree right
-是吗?-不是
[Is it? ] It is not.
不是 好的
[is not, OK]
如果瑞典的那个研究结果是正确的话
if the results of the Swedish study were correct
那么得神经胶质瘤的比率会比事实上的高40%
then the rates of Glioma would be more then 40% higher than they are
所以说手机会使人患脑瘤实在是说不通的
so it is extremely unlikely that cell phones actually cause brain cancer
如果真是这样的话 不是(手机造成的)影响会好几十年之后才发生 就是风险增大得微乎其微
and if they do, either the effects take decades to show or the increase of risk is very very small
嗨……
Hello …
嘿 如果你在寻找更多的方法去使用你的手机的话 可能你应该试试有声书
hey, so if you are looking for more ways to use your smart phone, maybe you should try audio books
Audible.com是一个提供有声书的领先网站 它有超过150000部有声书
audible. com is a leading provider of audio books with over 150,000 titles
在所有的文学作品里 包括小说、非小说和期刊杂志
in all areas of literature, including fiction, non-fiction and periodicals
本周我想向大家推荐一本影响我一生的书籍
now this week i want to recommend a book which had an impact on my life
它的名字是《创业神话》 由Michael.E.Gerber所撰写
it is called the E-Myth by MICHAEL E.GERBER
它是一本商业书 有关为什么很多小型企业都失败了
It’s a business book about why a lot of small business is failed
因为它们的核心有这个神话
because they have this myth at their core
这个“创业神话”是属于企业家的神话
the E-MYTH is the entrepreneurial myth
如果你知道怎样做一些事 就比方说做视频
if you know how to do something, for example, make videos
你就会知道怎样做一个关于做视频的生意 比如 做一个视频生产产业
then you know how to make a business that does that thing. For example, make a video production business
不光是这些 我认为Michael.E.Gerber
that is just not the case, and I think the way Michael Gerber approaches
从那个“神话”向前推进到主题的方式
this subject from the myth forward
嗯你会从这里面效仿:我该怎么写我的博士论文 用我的讲解的方式在YouTube上该怎么做
ah you know very much emulates: what i did with my phd thesis, what i do now on youtube in the way I teach
同时我也找到了一个学习做我自己的生意的有效方法
and I found also a very effective way to learn about making my own business
所以如果你打算开你自己的公司 我强烈推荐这本书
so if you were thinking to start your own business, I would highly highly recommend this book
事实上 你可以在 audio.com/veritasium免费下载这本书
and in fact you can download for free by going to audio.com/veritasium
或者如果你开通了一个月的免费试用 你也可以选择(下载)其他任何一本书
or you can pick any other book if you are choosing for a one month free trial
我非常感谢Audible的支持
I really want to thank audible for supporting me
也很感谢大家的收看
and I want to thank you for watching.

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听录译者

naiveboy

翻译译者

夏的绵延

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU5XkhUGzBs

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