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过去的核武器测试的数据计算存在误差

Declassified Nuclear Films Prove We Were Wrong About Their Explosive Power

1945年7月 科学家们引爆了世界第一颗原子弹——瘦子
In July 1945, scientists detonated Trinity, the world’s first nuclear bomb.
在那时 没人能确定到底会发生什么
At the time, no one was sure what was going to happen.
而科学家甚至觉得地球大气都会燃烧
Scientists were even concerned the Earth’s atmosphere would catch on fire.
但是实验异常成功 并且它领导了国际军备竞争的走向
But the test was a terrifying success, and it led to an international arms race.
美国进行了200多次核武器实验目的只有两个:
The United States conducted over 200 atmospheric weapons tests for two key reasons: grandstanding
炫耀和调试
and fine tuning.
他们想用更多强力的核武器来证明自己的军力 并改进它
They wanted to prove their military might, and make better, more powerful nuclear weapons.
于是 便开始在空中 地面以及海面上测试这些新玩意儿
So, they tested out new designs in the air, on the ground, and at sea.
所有这些巨大的火球都被放在测试地点的战地相机
All of these massive fireballs were captured by strategically placed cameras around a test
抓拍到 并提供给科学家们分析
site, and then analyzed by scientists.
科学家们分析哪些大数据呢?
The big number they were all after?
破坏程度 或者释放出的大量的能量
The yield, or the amount of energy released.
这些影像是我们所能获得的最好的关于核位势的科学数据
These films hold the best scientific data we have of our nuclear potential.
直到一名武器物理学家花费数十年发现
That is, until a weapons physicist decades later found out the data from these films
这些影像数据可能有点不对劲
might be a bit off.
10年前 我被上面要求去写可以预测核辐射的代码
About 10 years ago, I was asked by my boss to write this computer code that would predict
并且以我之叫 不管怎么做都很难得到满意的答案
nuclear fallout, and I couldn’t seem to get the answer to agree no matter what I did.
这位是Greg Spriggs 一名劳伦斯利物莫国家实验室的武器物理学家
That’s Greg Spriggs, a weapons physicist with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
我一直在说:“我不能在我的电脑程序上有任何失误”
I kept saying, “I’m not doing anything wrong in my computer code.”
典型的科学式回答 这通常是另一些人的错误 不是你的
Typical scientific answer right, it’s always somebody else’s fault, not yours.”
对于像Greg这样的武器物理学家来说 代码就是整个世界
For weapons physicists like Greg, computer codes are everything.
他们曾经核查了全国上下上千个备用核弹头
They’re used to verify the thousands of thermonuclear warheads on standby all across the country.
并且部分程序的源代码来自于这些影片
And the original data for those codes came in part from these films.
这就是这些数据的有用之处
That’s the benefit of the data.
它提供给我们事后大地的真实情况 而且让我们心满意足的回到华盛顿
It provides ground truth to us , the reality, and it gives everybody a warm fuzzy feeling back in Washington.
如果以后发展到不得不动用核武器时 它最好有效
If it ever comes to a point that we have to use a nuke, it better work.
所以Greg得扫描并再次分析这些老旧影片
So Greg is working on a special project to scan and reanalyze all of the old films, and
且得确定数据一切正常
make sure the data is up to snuff.
为了这样做 他不得不搜寻冷战时期上千个这样的影片容器
To do that, he had to track down thousands of Cold War era film canisters.
这些容器被放在安全度很高的保险库里数十年 并且一直没有公布于众
They’d been sitting in high security vaults for decades and hadn’t been seen by the public.
但有些影碟已经腐烂在盒子里化成了灰烬
Some of the films had decomposed to the point where they had turned to dust.
能准确的研究这些影片的唯一方法就是数码扫描它们
The only way to accurately study these films is to digitally scan them.
所以Greg需要一位影片修复专家
And Greg needed an expert in film preservation.
于是 他邀请了Jim Moye
So he brought in Jim Moye.
对于Jim来说 每个影片都是一个时间胶囊
For Jim, each film is a mini time capsule.
打开这些尘封已久并且未知的东西 感觉挺爽的
It’s kind of cool to be opening something and having no idea what’s there.
Jim用这个好莱坞风格的扫描器来处理所有的核影像
Jim processes each nuclear film with this Hollywood-style scanner.
目前为止 他们已经数字扫描了超出4000多部影片了
So far, they’ve digitally scanned over 4,000 films.
然后开始一个一个的分析它们
Then came the work of analyzing them.
核爆炸会产生4个主要影响 第一个我称之为核辐射
There are four major effects.The first one I’ll call prop radiation.
Greg花费了大量的时间来观看炸弹爆炸
Greg spends a lot of time watching bombs explode.
其中有核中子和伽马射线参与核裂变过程
These are the prop neutrons or the prop gammas that are coming off of the fission process.
在屏幕中的就是Housatonic 120256 于1962年
We’re looking at Housatonic 120256, the last nuclear shot before all atmospheric testing
全面结束的大气层测试前的最后一次核测试的核弹
came to a complete stop in 1962.
第二个主要的影响是冲击波——一个在大气中
The next major effect is what’s called the shockwave//a big, high-density air region
快速移动的高密度的大空气区
that is moving through the atmosphere at very high speed.
通过测量冲击波随着时间推移的大小 可以推测出核弹爆炸释放能量的多少
Measuring the size of a shock wave over time can reveal how much energy a bomb releases.
可以看到冲击波移动的非常非常快 而且当它撞上东西时……你可以想象
So this shockwave is moving very, very fast. and when it hits something … You could imagine
你站在飓风中 风以200英里每小时的速度向你刮来
standing in a hurricane, having that wind blowing at you at 200 miles an hour, well
那可是非常快的速度
this is much higher speed.
回到1950年 冲击波的值是通过一个名为kodagraph的设备来手动测量计算出的
Back in the 1950s though, the shockwave was calculated by hand using a device called a kodagraph.
他们把影像投影到格子平面上并一帧一帧的播放
They projected the film onto a grid and advanced it frame by frame.
在当时科学家们通过手动进行快速计算 一种误差不小的方式
Scientists we’re doing this manually and very quickly, a process prone to human error.
我们发现这些值下降了近20%到30%
we found that some of those yields could be off by as much as 20% or 30%.
但是现在 随着影片数字化 Greg可以一个像素一个像素的
But now, with these films digitized, Greg can analyze every single pixel in the fireball’s
分析这个火球的边缘
edge.
这意味着第一次 我们可以精确的感知到炸弹的产生的威力
This means for the very first time, we’re able to get a more accurate sense of a bomb’s yield.
第三个是热冲击
The next effect was the thermal blast.
当冲击波移动至大气中时 它也会加热空气 而这些热空气
When the shock wave moves through the atmosphere it also heats the air, and that hot air then
便开始向外散发热辐射
starts to radiate thermal energy.
火球中有两个脉冲出现
Two pulses emerge from a fireball.
第一个脉冲发生在81ms内 并含有0.6%的热辐射
The first pulse happens within 81 milliseconds and has 0.6% of thermal radiation.
而爆炸中的第二个脉冲携带着整个热辐射99%的能量
The second carries about 99% of total thermal radiation energy from the blast.
接下来第四个影响 毫无疑问 核辐射 这些影片是无法测量
Then the fourth major effect, of course, is nuclear fallout.The films can’t measure
核辐射的 但是通过测量蘑菇云的厚度可以使专家计算出核辐射的破坏程度
nuclear fallout, but measuring the cloud height can give experts a sense of the extent of the damage.
我发现这些蘑菇云的高度会减少近10%到15%
I found that those cloud heights could be off by as much as 10% or 15%, which makes
这使得核辐射很难计算
a big difference in nuclear fallout.
通过观察更多精确的数值 Greg可以更新计算机模型来估计不同
By pinpointing more precise yields, Greg can update computer models to estimate the damage
情况下 炸弹的破坏程度
from a bomb in different scenarios.
最后 他们完美的得出的了那些核武器的数据 希望这些核武器永远不要用上
Ultimately, they’re perfecting data for nuclear weapons that will hopefully never be used.
尽管如此 这工作还是值得的
Still, the pursuit is worth it.
这可是以前没有过的 且这就是科学家存在的意义
This is something new, this is what scientists live for, is
也会起到一小点推进国家前进一小步的作用
to kind of push the frontier forward just a little bit.
这些蘑菇云总是会给人带来不安的感觉
There’s something unnerving about watching these mushroom clouds.
当然我们再也不会测试核武器了 且这些影片也在这强烈的
And while we aren’t testing nuclear weapons anymore, these films stand as a terrifying
提醒我们核武器的危害与其潜在破坏力
reminder of our nuclear past and potential.

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视频概述

现代武器物理学家通过数码扫描的形式分析了过去美国近200个核试验影片,并更正了过去的科学家计算的错误。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

ENDtheDNE

审核员

HZ

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-QVPXBcxLU

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