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当下的你和未来自我的战争 – 译学馆
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当下的你和未来自我的战争

Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self

还记不记得
Do you remember the story
高中或是初中时听说过
of Odysseus and the Sirens
奧德修斯和塞壬的故事?
from high school or junior high school?
有这么个英雄 叫奧德修斯
There was this hero, Odysseus, who’s heading back home
他当时从特洛伊战争返回
after the Trojan War.
站在战船的甲板上
And he’s standing on the deck of his ship,
和大副闲谈着
he’s talking to his first mate,
他说:
and he’s saying,
“明天我们驶过那些岩石
“Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,
岩石上会坐者一群美女
and on those rocks sit some beautiful women
她们是塞壬
called Sirens.
她们会唱首摄人心魄的歌
And these women sing an enchanting song,
会令
a song so alluring
听到歌声的水手着迷
that all sailors who hear it
然后船会撞上岩石而亡
crash into the rocks and die.”
你会想 既然如此
Now you would expect, given that,
他们应该另找一条航线避开塞壬
that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,
但是奧德修斯说
but instead Odysseus says,
“我想听到那首歌
“I want to hear that song.
我会用蜡
And so what I’m going to do
把你和其他所有人的
is I’m going to pour wax in the ears
耳朵
of you and all the men —
都封上-
stay with me —
这样你们就听不见这歌了
so that you can’t hear the song,
你们把我绑在桅杆上
and then I’m going to have you tie me to the mast
这样我就能听到歌
so that I can listen
并且航行不受影响
and we can all sail by unaffected.”
这个船长
So this is a captain
置全船人的危险于不顾
putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk
就为了自己听首歌
so that he can hear a song.
我想要是这种状况
And I’d like to think if this was the case,
他们应该事先练习几次
they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.
奧德修斯会说:“好 我们试试
Odysseus would have said, “Okay, let’s do a dry run.
你把我绑在桅杆上 不管我怎么央求
You tie me to the mast, and I’m going to beg and plead.
不管说什么你都不要解开绳子
And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.
好 现在把我绑上桅杆吧 ”
All right, so tie me to the mast.”
大副取了绳子
And the first mate takes a rope
把奧德修斯牢牢绑在桅杆上
and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.
奧德修斯拼命假装求情
And Odysseus does his best job playacting
说:“放开我吧 放开我吧
and says, “Untie me. Untie me.
我想听那首歌 放开我吧 ”
I want to hear that song. Untie me.”
大副会很明智地拒绝
And the first mate wisely resists
不会解开奧德修斯
and doesn’t untie Odysseus.
然后奧德修斯说;“很好 你能胜任这个任务
And then Odysseus says, “I see that you can get it.
现在 解开我咱们吃晚饭去 ”
All right, untie me now and we’ll get some dinner.”
大副迟疑了
And the first mate hesitates.
“我们还在练习呢
He’s like, “Is this still the rehearsal,
还是我就解开绳子呢?”
or should I untie him?”
大副想
And the first mate thinks,
“好吧 排练总有结束的时候”
“Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end.”
他解开奧德修斯 但是奧德修斯大发雷霆
So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.
“你个蠢货 你个白痴
He’s like, “You idiot. You moron.
明天你要这么干 我们都死定了
If you do that tomorrow, I’ll be dead, you’ll be dead,
每个人都死定了
every single one of the men will be dead.
不管我说什么都不能解开!”
Now just don’t untie me no matter what.”
他把大副摔倒在地
He throws the first mate to the ground.
他们就这么折腾了一夜-
This repeats itself through the night —
排练 绑在桅杆上
rehearsal, tying to the mast,
哄大副解开绳子
conning his way out of it,
毫不留情地殴打大副
beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.
闹剧就来了
Hilarity ensues.
把自己绑到桅杆上
Tying yourself to a mast
大概是最早的
is perhaps the oldest written example
心理学家称为承诺手段的书面记录了
of what psychologists call a commitment device.
承诺手段是你在冷静状态下
A commitment device is a decision that you make
做出的决定来约束自己
with a cool head to bind yourself
以防在冲动之下
so that you don’t do something regrettable
当你头脑发热
when you have a hot head.
你想想 人内心
Because there’s two heads inside one person
有两种状态
when you think about it.
当涉及到诱惑的问题时
Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves
学者们早就用了两个自我的比喻
when it comes to questions of temptation.
第一是当下的自我
There is first, the present self.
就象是奥德修斯 他一听到这歌
This is like Odysseus when he’s hearing the song.
就想去前排占个好位子
He just wants to get to the front row.
只想着此时此刻和当下的满足
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.
但是另一个自我 未来的自我
But then there’s this other self, the future self.
作为一个老人的奥德修斯
This is Odysseus as an old man
他只想在远离伊萨卡的别墅里
who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa
和妻子佩罗普
with his wife Penelope
过着退休生活
outside of Ithaca — the other one.
那么为什么我们需要承诺手段呢?
So why do we need commitment devices?
因为诱惑难以抗拒
Well resisting temptation is hard,
19世纪的英国经济学家
as the 19th century English economist
老纳索威廉姆说
Nassau William Senior said,
“放弃我们能得到的享受
“To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,
或者追寻遥远而不是眼下的结果
or to seek distant rather than immediate results,
是人类意志中
are among the most painful exertions
最痛苦的事情之一 ”
of the human will.”
如果你为自己设定目标 并且你跟普通人一样
If you set goals for yourself and you’re like a lot of other people,
也许你会意识到
you probably realize
不是定的目标高不可攀
it’s not that your goals are physically impossible
而是缺乏自律
that’s keeping you from achieving them,
去坚持下来
it’s that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.
减肥是现实可行的
It’s physically possible to lose weight.
增加运动是现实可行的
It’s physically possible to exercise more.
但是抵抗诱惑
But resisting temptation
很难
is hard.
另一个
The other reason
难以抵抗诱惑的原因是
that it’s difficult to resist temptation
当下的自我和未来的自我之间
is because it’s an unequal battle
不平等的战争
between the present self and the future self.
当下的自我活在现在
I mean, let’s face it, the present self is present.
它是受控制的 一旦它有了力量
It’s in control. It’s in power right now.
用强壮的胳膊
It has these strong, heroic arms
抓起甜甜圈送进嘴里去
that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.
而未来的自我都不在场
And the future self is not even around.
它还在远远的未来 没什么力量
It’s off in the future. It’s weak.
它连律师都不在场
It doesn’t even have a lawyer present.
没人会为了未来自我而争辩
There’s nobody to stick up for the future self.
所以当下的自我可以击败
And so the present self can trounce
未来的所有梦想
all over its dreams.
所以在这两个斗争的自我之间
So there’s this battle between the two selves that’s being fought,
要有承诺手段
and we need commitment devices
来平衡二者的力量
to level the playing field between the two.
我很拥护承诺设备
Now I’m a big fan of commitment devices actually.
把自己绑到桅杆上是最古老的一个例子 还有其他的
Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones
把信用卡锁起来
such as locking a credit card away with a key
不把垃圾食品带回家而减少摄入
or not bringing junk food into the house so you won’t eat it
断网
or unplugging your Internet connection
来保证专心使用电脑
so you can use your computer.
在我自己知道承诺手段之前
I was creating commitment devices of my own
我就在创造他们了
long before I knew what they were.
当我还是哥伦比亚大学的
So when I was a starving post-doc
苦逼博士后时
at Columbia University,
我还在“发表(论文)或淘汰”中挣扎
I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.
我得为了完成文章
I had to write five pages a day
一天不得不写五页
towards papers
不然就得丢掉5块钱
or I would have to give up five dollars.
当你得执行这些承诺手段的时候
And when you try to execute these commitment devices,
你就意识到了执行的细节太邪恶了
you realize the devil is really in the details.
因为要丢掉五块钱不那么容易
Because it’s not that easy to get rid of five dollars.
你不能烧了 那是犯法的
I mean, you can’t burn it; that’s illegal.
我想 我可以捐给慈善机构
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity
或者给我老婆 等等
or give it to my wife or something like that.
但是转念一想 我这是在混淆视线
But then I thought, oh, I’m sending myself mixed messages.
因为不写作是坏事 但慈善是好事
Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.
这样赠予就把不写作
So then I would kind of justify not writing
变得合理了
by giving a gift.
然后我想了想
And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,
我可以把它给新纳粹分子
well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.
但是 这比不写作更坏
But then I was like, that’s more bad than writing is good,
所以这个方法行不通
and so that wouldn’t work.
最后我决定
So ultimately, I just decided
我把它放进信封留到地铁上
I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.
有时候是好人捡到
Sometimes a good person would find it,
有时候是坏人捡到
sometimes a bad person would find it.
总的来说 这只是没有意义的但会令我后悔的
On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money
丢钱行为
that I would regret.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
这就是承诺手段
Such it is with commitment devices.
虽然我很喜欢它
But despite my like for them,
但是对于承诺手段
there’s two nagging concerns
我仍有两个顾虑
that I’ve always had about commitment devices,
在使用的时候可能会感受到
and you might feel this if you use them yourself.
首先就是
So the first is,
当你使用这些手段的时候
when you’ve got one of these devices going,
比如说不写就付钱
such as this contract to write everyday or pay,
这只是会不断地提醒自己
it’s just a constant reminder
没有自控能力
that you have no self-control.
你只是在告诉自己 “没有承诺手段
You’re just telling yourself, “Without you, commitment device,
你会一事无成 你不能自律 ”
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline.”
这样在一个
And then when you’re ever in a situation
没有承诺手段的情况下-
where you don’t have a commitment device in place —
比如“天哪 那家伙要给我一个甜甜圈
like, “Oh my God, that person’s offering me a doughnut,
我可没有防御机制”
and I have no defense mechanism,” —
你就给吃了
you just eat it.
所以我不喜欢承诺手段让我们失去能力
So I don’t like the way that they take the power away from you.
我想自律就象是肌肉
I think self-discipline is something, it’s like a muscle.
锻炼越多就越强壮
The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.
承诺手段的另一个问题就是
The other problem with commitment devices
你可以很容易耍滑头就逃过
is that you can always weasel your way out of them.
你说:“哎呀 今天写不了啦
You say, “Well, of course I can’t write today,
我有个TED演讲 还得接受5个媒体访问
because I’m giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,
然后得去个鸡尾酒晚会 然后我肯定就喝醉了
and then I’m going to a cocktail party and then I’ll be drunk after that.
所以我今天肯定写不了 ”
And so there’s no way that this is going to work.”
这样一来 你就像奥德修斯和大副
So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate
二者合一
in one person.
你把自己绑起来
You’re putting yourself, you’re binding yourself,
然后耍个手段逃脱了
and you’re weaseling your way out of it,
然后事后就痛打自己
and then you’re beating yourself up afterwards.
为了寻找
So I’ve been working
承诺手段之外的方法
for about a decade now
来改善人们
on finding other ways
与未来自我的关系
to change people’s relationship to the future self
我努力了近十年
without using commitment devices.
我尤其对财政意义上的
In particular, I’m interested in the relationship
未来的财政自我关系感兴趣
to the future financial self.
这是时间跨度的话题
And this is a timely issue.
我要说的是就是储蓄
I’m talking about the topic of saving.
储蓄是个典型的两个自我的问题
Now saving is a classic two selves problem.
当下的自我完全不想储蓄
The present self does not want to save at all.
它要消费
It wants to consume.
然而未来的我却想要储蓄
Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.
所以这是个时间跨度的问题
So this is a timely problem.
看看储蓄率
We look at the savings rate
自50年代以来一直下跌
and it has been declining since the 1950s.
同时 退休风险指数
At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,
-在退休时无法有足够的积累
the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,
一直在上升
has been increasing.
我们现在的状况是
And we’re at a situation now
按照麦肯锡全球研究中心预计
where for every three baby boomers,
婴儿潮的人群里
the McKinsey Global Institute predicts
每三个就有两个无法完成退休前
that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs
为退休生活的积累
while they’re in retirement.
我们能做些什么呢?
So what can we do about this?
有个哲学家 德瑞克巴菲特
There’s a philosopher, Derek Parfit,
他说了一些话对我和我的合作者很有启发
who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.
他说:“我们忽视未来自我
He said that, “We might neglect our future selves
是因为没有信念或缺乏想像。”
because of some failure of belief or imagination.”
也就是说
That is to say,
我们不知怎么的不相信自己会变老
we somehow might not believe that we’re going to get old,
或者我们没法想像
or we might not be able to imagine
有天我们会变老
that we’re going to get old some day.
一方面这听起来很可笑
On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.
当然我们知道自己会变老
Of course, we know that we’re going to get old.
但是有没有可能有些东西我们相信的同时又不相信呢?
But aren’t there things that we believe and don’t believe at the same time?
我和我的合作者用电脑
So my coauthors and I have used computers,
这个时代最伟大的工具
the greatest tool of our time,
来帮助人们想像
to assist people’s imagination
想像未来可能的
and help them imagine what it might be like
样子
to go into the future.
在这儿我会展示几个
And I’ll show you some of these tools right here.
第一个是“分配生成器”
The first is called the distribution builder.
可以向人们展示未来可能的状况
It shows people what the future might be like
它能显示你未来可能取得的
by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes
一百种同等概率的结果
that might be obtained in the future.
每一种结果都用这些记号来表示
Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,
各排上的每一个单位
and each sits on a row
代表一定程度的财富和退休期
that represents a level of wealth and retirement.
位置越高
Being up at the top
也就意味着你可以享受富足的晚年
means that you’re enjoying a high income in retirement.
越往下
Being down at the bottom
也就是你得努力糊口
means that you’re struggling to make ends meet.
如果你进行投资
When you make an investment,
如果说你承认
what you’re really saying is, “I accept
这一百件事
that any one of these 100 things
有可能发生在自己身上并最终决定我的财富
could happen to me and determine my wealth.”
你就可以把收入进行分配了
Now you can try to move your outcomes around.
你可以像这个人一样修改你的命运
You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,
但是是有代价的
but it costs you something to do it.
也就是说你得在现在储蓄更多
It means that you have to save more today.
一旦发现了一个感兴趣的投资
Once you find an investment that you’re happy with,
你就点击“完成”
what people do is they click “done”
然后这些记号慢慢得
and the markers begin to disappear,
一个接一个消失
slowly, one by one.
这就像是投资了某物
It simulates what it is like to invest in something
然后坐收红利一样
and to watch that investment pan out.
最后将只有一个标记剩下来
At the end, there will only be one marker left standing
这就决定了退休时的财富
and it will determine our wealth in retirement.
这个人
Yes, this person retired
在退休时能有工作收入的百分之一百五十的入帐
at 150 percent of their working income in retirement.
他们退休了比工作的时候
They’re making more money while retired
挣的钱还要多
than they were making while they were working.
大多数人
If you’re like most people,
看到这都会有点喜不自禁
just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy —
一想到自己退休了
just to think about making
能比工作的时候还多挣百分之五十
50 percent more money in retirement than before.
但是 如果最后的结果这个点出现在最底部
However, had you ended up on the very bottom,
这应该会让你有点
it might have given you a slight sense
担心或者不寒而栗
of dread and/or nausea
一想到退休了还得挣扎过活的话
thinking about struggling to get by in retirement.
通过不停地使用这个工具
By using this tool over and over
来预测未来的结果
and simulating outcome after outcome,
人们能够意识到
people can understand
今天进行的储蓄决定了
that the investments and savings that they undertake today
明天的生活质量
determine their well-being in the future.
人们常受情绪而激发
Now people are motivated through emotions,
但是激发每个人的事物却往往不一样
but different people find different things motivating.
这个工具
This is a simulation
使用了图片
that uses graphics,
很多人不大受代表钱的数字而影响
but other people find motivating what money can buy,
但是钱能买到的东西可以
not just numbers.
这个分配生成器
So here I made a distribution builder
显示的不是数字
where instead of showing numerical outcomes,
而是具体你能买到的东西
I show people what those outcomes will get you,
比如 你的每个月的退休金能有
in particular apartments that you can afford
三千,两千五,两千的话
if you’re retiring on 3,000, 2,500,
这是你买得起的公寓
2,000 dollars per month and so on.
随着排名的下降
As you move down the ladder of apartments,
能看出来质量越来越差
you see that they get worse and worse.
有一些看上去像我作为研究生的时候住过的地方
Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student.
而当你处于最底部的时候
And as you get to the very bottom,
你退休时将一无所有
you’re faced with the unfortunate reality
那就得面对老无所居的
that if you don’t save anything for retirement,
残酷现实
you won’t be able to afford any housing at all.
这些照片拍的
Those are actual pictures of actual apartments
都是对应价格的
renting for that amount
网上实际在售的公寓
as advertised on the Internet.
最后一个我想展示的
The last thing I’ll show you,
行为时光机器
the last behavioral time machine,
是我和哈尔赫施费尔德共同开发的
is something that I created with Hal Hershfield,
他是从一个之前项目加入我称为合作者的
who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project,
也就是“Bill Sharpe”
Bill Sharpe.
这个工具
And what it is
提供具象的现实
is an exploration into virtual reality.
我们拍下用户的照片-
So what we do is we take pictures of people —
这个是大学生-
in this case, college-age people —
然后我们用软件模拟衰老
and we use software to age them
看看当他们六七八十岁的时候
and show these people what they’ll look like
是什么样子
when they’re 60, 70, 80 years old.
我们试着测试
And we try to test
帮助你想像
whether actually assisting your imagination
将来自己的样子
by looking at the face of your future self
能不能改变投资行为
can change you investment behavior.
这是我们的一个试验
So this is one of our experiments.
左边是我们测试对象的年轻的脸
Here we see the face of the young subject on the left.
他可以
He’s given a control
调控自己的储蓄率
that allows him to adjust his savings rate.
当他的储蓄率降低
As he moves his savings rate down,
指针在最左边
it means that he’s saving zero
意味着储蓄为零
when it’s all the way here at the left.
他目前的年收入-
You can see his current annual income —
现在他每天能拿到手的钱很多
this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today —
百分之九十一
is quite high, 91 percent,
但是退休金会很低
but his retirement income is quite low.
他的退休金只有工作时
He’s going to retire on 44 percent
薪水的百分之四十四
of what he earned while he was working.
如果现在提高到法定的储蓄上限
If he saves the maximum legal amount,
他的退休金就上升
his retirement income goes up,
但是他不会开心
but he’s unhappy
因为现在左手边可花费的钱更少了
because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today.
还有其他的状况来展现未来的情形
Other conditions show people the future self.
从未来的角度来看 一切都是相反的
And from the future self’s point of view, everything is in reverse.
如果储蓄很少
If you save very little,
未来靠收入的百分之四十
the future self is unhappy
生活就会很不爽快
living on 44 percent of the income.
如果现在多储蓄一点
Whereas if the present self saves a lot,
未来就会好过很多
the future self is delighted,
因为退休金几乎和工作的收入一样多
where the income is close up near 100 percent.
为了推广这个概念
To bring this to a wider audience,
我和哈尔以及安莲兹
I’ve been working with Hal and Allianz
开发出了行为学时间机器
to create something we call the behavioral time machine,
这个软件不仅让你看到未来
in which you not only get to see yourself in the future,
也可以看到你未来会根据退休收入的不同
but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions
而有各种层次的情绪反应
to different levels of retirement wealth.
比如说
So for instance,
有人用这个工具
here is somebody using the tool.
移动光标
And just watch the facial expressions
查看面部表情
as they move the slider.
年轻的脸越来越开心 但没有零星储蓄
The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing.
而老年的年就愁容满面
The older face is miserable.
如果转换到中等的储蓄率
And slowly, slowly we’re bringing it up to a moderate savings rate.
然后是高储蓄率
And then it’s a high savings rate.
年轻时候的脸笑容越来越淡
The younger face is getting unhappy.
年老的脸则随之
The older face is quite pleased
变的开心
with the decision.
我们以此来看看人们是否会对此反应
We’re going to see if this has an effect on what people do.
它的好处是
And what’s nice about it
它并不会左右人们的想法
is it’s not something that biasing people actually,
因为一侧的脸在笑
because as one face smiles,
而另一侧脸就在愁
the other face frowns.
它并不指手画脚说选择哪一边
It’s not telling you which way to put the slider,
只是提醒你
it’s just reminding you that you are
对自己的未来负责的人
connected to and legally tied to
就是自己
this future self.
你现在的选择就决定了将来的生活
Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being.
而这一点是我们很容易忘记的
And that’s something that’s easy to forget.
这种可视化现实
This use of virtual reality
不仅能显示年老的样子
is not just good for making people look older.
还可以看看
There are programs you can get
如果抽烟
to see how people might look
暴晒、或者增肥的话
if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun,
将来会是什么样子
if they gain weight and so on.
它的好处是
And what’s good is,
我、哈尔和罗斯・史密斯的试验得自己写程序
unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith,
你可以不用这么大费周章
you don’t have to program these by yourself
想看到未来
in order to see the virtual reality.
只要用智能手机下载几美元的应用程序
There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars
就可以了
that do the same thing.
这是我的合作者哈尔的照片
This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor.
也许能从之前的演示里认出他来
You might recognize him from the previous demos.
我们把他的照片弄来恶搞
And just for kicks we ran his picture
用软件看看要是他秃顶、老了还变胖了
through the balding, aging and weight gain software
会是个什么样子
to see how he would look.
哈尔也在场 所以为了他 也为了在场各位观众
Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself
才把他的肖像放在最后展现出来
to disabuse you of that last image.
今天就到这里结束
And I’ll close it there.
我代表哈尔和自己
On behalf of Hal and myself,
给各位和将来的各位最好的祝福
I wish all the best to your present and future selves.
谢谢
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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视频概述

在各种物质条件之中,当下,在你还没有退休时,相比退休后获得的各种利,你会怎么选择

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

red

审核员

与光同尘

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1Z_oufuQg4

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