未登录,请登录后再发表信息
最新评论 (0)
播放视频

批判性思维基础:关联和因果

CRITICAL THINKING - Fundamentals: Correlation and Causation

《无线哲学》 开启哲学之路
Hello, I’m Paul Henne and I’m a philosophy graduate student at Duke University
你好 我是杜克大学哲学系毕业生Paul Henne
and in this video I’m going to talk to you about correlation and causation.
这个视频中 我将要和你聊聊关联和因果
Maria and Andy are high school students in Arizona.
Maria和Andy是亚利桑那州的高中生
Andy always gets an A on his math test when it’s sunny outside.
当天气晴朗 Andy总能在数学考试里得A
On one sunny day, before Andy goes to math class he tells Maria,
在一个晴天 Andy在去上数学课前告诉Maria
“I’m going to ace this test today because it’s sunny!”
“今天的考试我会拿高分的!因为今天是晴天!”
Maria objects, “No Andy. You’ll not ace this test because it’s sunny.
Maria反对说:“不 你成绩好不是因为天气晴朗
You’ll ace test because you studied.
而是因为你认真学习了
The fact that it’s sunny outside has nothing to do with it.”
事实上天气和你的考试一点关系都没有”
responds, “But Maria. I always ace my tests when it’s sunny.”
Andy回答:“但是 我总在晴天考得好啊”
Maria replies, “Okay, sure, but that’s just because you always study for your math test,
Maria回答道:“是 但那只是因为你为了数学考试而努力学习了
and it’s always sunny here in Arizona.
并且亚利桑那总是晴天
The sunniness does not cause you to ace the test.”
阳光充足并不是你考高分的原因”
Maria is correct. Andy’s making a mistake, right?
Maria是对的 而Andy错了 不是吗?
The sunniness doesn’t cause Andy to ace his test.
阳光明媚并不是Andy考高分的原因
The two events, the sunniness and Andy acing his test
阳光明媚和Andy考好这两件事同时出现
occur together without one causing the other.
但并不是晴天使成绩变好
In other words, the two events are correlated in some way
换句话说 这两件事在某些方面相关
but there’s no causal relation between them.
但它们之间不存在因果关系
Andy’s reasoning here is fallacious.
Andy的推理是错误的
Simply because two events are correlated
很简单 因为两件事具有相关性
does not mean that one caused the other.
并不意味着就是一个致使另一个发生
This conflation of correlation and causation is what we will talk about in this video.
这种关联与因果的混淆 就是我们在视频中要讨论的
First let’s consider some other examples.
我们先来看看其他的例子
Fido barks when his tail wags.
狗在摇尾巴时汪汪叫
People with higher grades in college have higher grades in high school.
在大学成绩好的人 他们在高中成绩也不错
People who take vitamin C recover more quickly from a cold.
常摄入Vc的人感冒痊愈得更快
These are correlations.
这些都是相关关系
That is, there’s a correspondence between these events.
也就是说 这些事物彼此之间有关联
For example, the dog, Fido, barks when his tail wags
例如 狗在摇尾巴时会叫
but there’s no reason to suspect that
但却不能据此臆断
there’s a causal relation between these events.
二者之间有因果关系
While these events often occur together
尽管这两件事经常同时发生
There are many times when Fido’s tail wags and he doesn’t bark
但许多时候 狗摇尾巴了却没有叫
and there are times when Fido barks
或者有时 狗汪汪叫
but doesn’t wag his tail.
但却不摇尾巴
Furthermore, we may suspect that there is some common cause
此外 我们可以推理 也许摇尾巴和叫是由共同原因引起的
for these events like Fido’s excitement when his owner comes home.
比如 狗狗是因为主人回家而兴奋
Now that we can agree that these are cases of correlation without causation
现在 我们可以确定 这些是没有因果关系的相关事件
We can discuss two types of correlation, positive and negative.
接着我们讨论相关的两种类型 正相关和负相关
In the next video we’ll discuss how these types of correlations
下个视频我们将详述关联的类型
specifically relate to different types of causation.
与因果的类型有什么具体关系
But for now let’s just introduce them.
但现在我们只是简单介绍一下它们
When events frequently occur together like in the examples above
像上述事件一样经常同时发生的
they are positively correlated.
它们呈正相关关系
If two events are positively correlated
如果两件事呈正相关
Then when one event is present the others often present as well.
那么当其中一件事出现时 另一件往往也同时发生
In our first example it being a sunny day in Arizona is positively correlated
在我们所举的第一个例子中 亚利桑那州是晴天
with Andy succeeding on his math test.
与Andy数学考好是正相关关系
On the other hand, two states are negatively correlated
另一方面 当我们说两件事负相关时
when it’s likely that when one event occurs the other will not occur.
那么当其中一件事发生时 另一件往往不会发生
For instance, when it snows, it’s often not very sunny,
例如 下雪时天气往往并不晴朗
so snowing and sunniness are negatively correlated.
所以 下雪和晴天呈负相关
We often hear about positive and negative correlations,
我们常常听见正相关与负相关的概念
especially in the news.
特别是在新闻中
headlines like “taking vitamin C helps you recover more quickly from a cold”
像“摄入Vc使你的感冒更快痊愈”这样的标题
indicate positive correlations.
就表明了正相关关系
Taking vitamin C is positively correlated
摄入维生素C的人
with recovering from the common cold more quickly
比不吃Vc的人感冒痊愈得更快
than if one had not taken vitamin C.
这二者是呈正相关的
Or headlines like “eating more nuts makes you less likely to have higher levels of bad cholesterol”
或者像“吃更多坚果使你有害胆固醇过高的概率变小”这样的标题
indicates that eating more nuts
则表明了
is negatively correlated
吃更多坚果与有害胆固醇过高
with having higher levels of bad cholesterol.
二者是呈负相关的
You may have heard headlines like these
你也许听说过这样的新闻标题
and had conversations with some friends about them
并且和朋友讨论过它们
and you may have heard someone say something like,
你可能会听到某人说
“Awesome, so I’ll just like eat more nuts and get rid of my bad cholesterol.”
“太棒了 所以我只要多吃坚果 就能远离有害胆固醇了”
You may have also had the experience of someone else saying,
你也许也曾经听到另外一些人这么说
“Yeah but that’s just correlation not causation.”
“没错 但他们只是有关系 又不是因果关系”
Of course it’s person may just be a jerk,
当然 可能这人只是个傻瓜
but they are right to point this out.
但他们指出这一点是对的
Unless you had evidence that a causal relation held it
除非你有任何表明它是因果关系的证据
Is a mistake to suggest that this correlation is actually a causal relation.
否则认为这个关联具有因果关系无疑是错误的
So it’d be wrong to say that eating more nuts
所以说吃更多坚果
will cause you to have lower levels of bad cholesterol,
就能让你有害胆固醇含量低 这是错的
unless you have evidence that the causal relation held.
除非你有证据支持其是因果关系
So let’s consider an example where two events are positively correlated when neither causes the other.
现在让我们看看另外一个不存在因果关系的正相关例子
Consider this again, people with higher grades in college have higher grades in high school.
再想想这句话 大学成绩好的人 高中也有很好的成绩
Here, earning higher grades in college is positively correlated with earning higher grades in high school.
这个例子中 大学成绩好和高中成绩好是正相关关系
Now, it’s incorrect, as we’ve discussed a claim, that
正如我们先前所说
earning high grades in high school
高中成绩好总是导致大学成绩好
always causes someone to earn high grades in College.
这个说法是不正确的
Nonetheless,
尽管如此
earning high grades in high school may sometimes cause a person to earn high grades in college.
高中的好成绩有时确实能帮助你在大学拿高分
For example,
例如
Jane may have gotten good grades during high school
Jane在高中成绩很好
and some of those gradestransferred to her college,
这些成绩中的一部分转移到了大学中
which causes her success in college.
这助推了她大学的成功
Here, success in high school for Jane
在这种情况下 Jane高中的成功
causes her success in college.
致使了她在大学的成功
But most of the time it is not the success in high school that causes success in college.
但多数时候高中成功并不是大学成功的原因
It is usually someone’s working hard in college courses
通常的情况是某人在大学的努力学习
that causes that person to succeed in college.
使她在大学获得成功
And at that type level of the statement where we are identifying a correspondence of two data sets,
从前述例子我们对这两组数据的相关性分析来看
the causal claim is false.
这种因果关系的断言是错误的
So again, the two events, high school success and college success
再次强调 高中的优秀 大学的优秀这两件事
are positively correlated, but they do not cause one another.
是正相关的 但它们之间不存在因果关系
When two events are correlated it may seem that one causes the other but
当两件事是相关的时候 看起来似乎是一件事导致了另一件事
there may be alternative explanations we’ve ignored,
但背后可能有另一个我们忽视的其他原因
like working hard in college courses causes that person’s overall success in college.
比如 是努力学习大学课程致使此人在大学全面成功
So it’s fallacious to conclude from only the fact that
所以只依据事物间正负相关
two states are positively or negatively correlated that one causes the other
来得出一件事导致了另一件事的结论是谬误
because there may be another cause that explains the outcome.
因为可能有其他的原因来解释这个结果
It may be that there’s a common cause for both of the events
也许是两件事由一个共同原因所导致
or that there’s some alternative cause all together.
或者各自还有其他原因
On the other hand, the correlation might just simply be a coincidence.
另一方面 相关联的事物也许仅仅只是个巧合
But this explanation and other questions
但是 这种说法以及其他问题
will have to wait for part two where we will talk more about the analysis of causation
我们将在分析更多因果关系的下集一起讨论
and how it relates to different types of correlation.
还会说说因果类型与关联类型的关系
If you’re interested in these false cause fallacies,
如果你对这些错因谬论感兴趣的话
you may also want to check out our video on the post hoc fallacy.
可以看看我们关于后此谬误的视频
Thank you for watching.
谢谢观看本视频
To subscribe to Wireless Philosophy on YouTube click here.
要订阅YouTube上的《无线哲学》 请单击此处

发表评论

译制信息
视频概述

人们在两件事同时发生时,总是认为其中一件导致了另一件的发生。实际上,多数时候它们只是呈正相关或负相关,而并不具备因果关系。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

审核员

审核员YY

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-_f8RQIIiw

相关推荐