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认知偏见:锚定效应

CRITICAL THINKING - Cognitive Biases: Anchoring [HD]

[序乐]
[ intro music ]
我是劳里·桑托斯
My name is Laurie Santos.
在耶鲁大学教心理学
I teach psychology at Yale University,
今天 我想给大家介绍的是锚定理论
and today, I want to talk to you about anchoring.
这个讲座是认知偏见系列讲座的一部分
This lecture is part of a series on cognitive biases.
我们先来做一道数学题
Let’s do a math problem really quickly,
你必须迅速在头脑中形成答案
and you’ve gotta do it in your head.
准备好了吗?
Ready?
首先 将下面这些数字相乘
First, multiply the following numbers:
8×7×6×5
eight times seven times six times five
×4×3×2×1
times four times three times two times one.
好啦 就是这样
OK, that’s it.
你猜测的答案是多少
What’s your guess?
1000?
A thousand?
2000?
Two thousand?
当心理学家丹尼·卡内曼和阿摩司·特沃斯基
When the psychologists Danny Kahnemanand Amos Tversky
用这道题询问受试者时
tried this with human subjects,
受试者估测的答案平均为2250
subjects on average guessed about two thousand two hundred and fifty.
这个估值似乎还可以
Seems like an OK guess.
但假设我现在给你一道不同的数学题
But now, let’s suppose I gave youa different math problem.
比如说是这样
What if I gave you this one?
准备好了吗?
Ready?
1×2×3×4
One times two times three times four
×5×6×7×8
times five times six times seven times eight.
你的答案会是什么?
What’s your answer?
如果你和卡内曼和特沃斯基的受试者一样
If you’re like Kahneman and Tversky’s subjects,
也许此时你的回答会和前一道题有点不同
your answer might be a bit different here.
对于这道题 受试者的估测答案比上一题低了很多
For this question, their subjects guessed a lot lower.
他们的答案平均为512
On average they said the answer was about five hundred and twelve.
首先 两组估测值有一个惊人的相似点
The first amazing thing about these similar mathematical estimates
那就是 受试者的答案都错得离谱
is that people get the answers really, really wrong.
那么真正的答案是什么?
In fact, the real answer?
其实 两道题的答案均是40320
Well, for both, its forty thousand three hundred and twenty.
人们的答案因为乘数排列的顺序产生偏差
People are off by an order of magnitude.
其次 更令人惊讶的是
But the second, even more amazing thing
人们对这两题给出了不同的答案
is that people give different answers to the two problems,
尽管它们其实是同一个问题
even though they’re just different ways
只是数字排列的顺序不同而已
of asking exactly the same question.
为什么同一个数学问题以不同的形式呈现
Why do we give completely different answers,
我们会给出不同的答案?
when the same math problem is presented differently?
原因在于我们进行估测的方式不同
The answer lies in how we make estimates.
当你有大量时间去做一道数学题时
When you have lots of time to do a math problem,
像 8×7×6×5
like eight times seven times six times five
再×4×3×2×1这样一道数学题
times four times three times two times one,
你可以把这些数字通通相乘
you can multiply all of the numbers together
然后得到一个准确的结果
and get an exact product.
但是当你必须快速解题时
But when you have to do the problem quickly,
你根本没时间去完成这个计算
you don’t really have time to finish.
于是 你就从最前面的数字开始
So you start with the first numbers.
你将8与7相乘 然后得到56
You multiply eight times seven, and get fifty-six.
然后你又用56乘以6
And then you’ve gotta multiply that by six, and,
接着你就猜测 这道题的结果一定是个很大很大的数
well, you’re guessing the final number’s gotta be pretty big,
肯定比56大 比如2000左右
bigger than fifty-six, like maybe two thousand or so.
但是当你做第二题时
But when you do the second problem,
你从1×2开始计算 呃 才得2
you start with one times two, and, well, that’s only two,
然后2×3仅仅得6
and two times three’s only six.
你估测的答案就相当小
Your answer’s gonna be pretty small,
可能就500左右
maybe only like five hundred or so.
这种基于最初的数字而进行估测的过程
This process of guessing based on the first number you see
就是所谓的“锚定”
is what’s known as “anchoring”.
我们进行估测时冒出来的第一个数字就是所谓的锚
The first number we think of when we do our estimate is the anchor.
一旦锚在我们头脑中形成
And once we have an anchor in our head,
我们就会根据锚按需调整
well, we sort of adjust as needed from there.
问题是 我们的思维具有偏见
The problem is that our minds are biased
并不会像我们需要的那样调整那么多
not to adjust as much as we need to.
锚在认知上非常根深蒂固
The anchors are cognitively really strong.
在第一题中 你可能从56开始
In the first problem, you probably started with fifty-six,
然后以56为锚 调整到一个比56大很多的数字
and then adjusted to an even bigger number from there.
而第二题中 你从6开始
And in the second problem, you started with six,
然后以6为锚进行调整
and then adjusted from there.
问题在于 不同的锚点导致不同的估测结果
The problem is that starting at different points leads to different final guesses.
就像现实存在的锚一样
Like real anchors,
估测时产生的锚也会使我们的思维困在某一点上
our estimated anchors kinda get us stuck in one spot.
我们往往无法将锚拖得足够远
We often fail to drag the anchor far
从而无法得到正确答案
enough to get to a correct answer.
卡内曼和特沃斯基研究发现
Kahneman and Tversky discovered that
这种锚偏见一直存在
this sort of anchoring bias happens all the time,
即使锚点是完全随机的
even for anchors that are totally arbitrary.
举个例子 他们要求人们去旋转一个转盘
For example, they asked people to spin a wheel
转盘上标着从1到100的数字
with numbers from one to a hundred,
然后要求人们估计
and then asked them to estimate
联合国中非洲国家的百分比
what percentage of countries in the United Nations are African.
把转盘停在10的人
People who spun a ten on the wheel
估测这个百分数大概是25%
estimated that the number was about twenty-five percent.
而把转盘停在65的人
But people who spun a sixty-five
估测这个数字是45%
estimated that the number was forty-five percent.
另一个实验中 丹·阿瑞利和他的同事
In another experiment, Dan Ariely and his colleagues
让人们写下他们社保号的后两位
had people write down the last two digitsof their social security number.
然后询问他们是否愿意以此数字作为美元价格
They were then asked whether they would pay that amount
支付一瓶上佳的葡萄酒
in dollars for a nice bottle of wine.
阿瑞利和他的同事发现
Ariely and colleagues found
社保号后两位在最高五分位数的人
that people in the highest quintile of social security numbers
愿意为同一个商品支付3到4倍的价格
would pay three to four times as much for the exact same good.
仅仅设置一个数字更大的锚
Just setting up a larger anchor
就能让一个本来只会花8美元去买那瓶酒的人
can make a person who would pay eightdollars for the bottle of wine
愿意为那瓶酒支付27美元
be willing to spend twenty-seven dollars instead.
悲催的是 销售人员一直在对我们使用锚定效应
Sadly for us, sales people use anchors against us all the time.
你有多少次注意到卖家或广告
How many times have you noticeda salesperson or an advertisement
为你锚定一个特定的价格
anchoring you to a particular price,
甚至你应该买多少给定的产品?
or even to how much of a particularproduct you should buy?
无论是买一辆车 一件毛衣
Whether it’s buying a car, or a sweater,
还是租一个旅馆房间
or even renting a hotel room,
我们对合理支付价格的直觉
our intuitions about what prices are reasonable to pay
往往来自某些随机锚
often come from some arbitrary anchor.
所以下次别人给你定一个锚的时候
So the next time you’re given an anchor,
三思一下吧
take a minute to think.
记住当你的锚过高时会发生什么
Remember what happens when you drop your anchor too high,
然后考虑一个截然不同的数字
and then consider thinking of a very different number.
也许这会更出乎意料地影响你的估测结果
It might affect your final estimate more than you expect.
字幕来自Amara.org社区
Subtitles by the Amara.org community

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视频概述

视频中,耶鲁大学的认知科学家解释了锚定现象。她告诉我们有时任意信息会形成任意锚,以意想不到的方式影响我们的判断。

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翻译译者

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFiDdbquWJY

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