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#### 认知偏见：锚定效应

CRITICAL THINKING - Cognitive Biases: Anchoring [HD]

[序乐]
[ intro music ]

My name is Laurie Santos.

I teach psychology at Yale University,

and today, I want to talk to you about anchoring.

This lecture is part of a series on cognitive biases.

Let’s do a math problem really quickly,

First, multiply the following numbers:
8×7×6×5
eight times seven times six times five
×4×3×2×1
times four times three times two times one.

OK, that’s it.

1000？
A thousand?
2000？
Two thousand?

When the psychologists Danny Kahnemanand Amos Tversky

tried this with human subjects,

subjects on average guessed about two thousand two hundred and fifty.

Seems like an OK guess.

But now, let’s suppose I gave youa different math problem.

What if I gave you this one?

1×2×3×4
One times two times three times four
×5×6×7×8
times five times six times seven times eight.

If you’re like Kahneman and Tversky’s subjects,

For this question, their subjects guessed a lot lower.

On average they said the answer was about five hundred and twelve.

The first amazing thing about these similar mathematical estimates

is that people get the answers really, really wrong.

Well, for both, its forty thousand three hundred and twenty.

People are off by an order of magnitude.

But the second, even more amazing thing

is that people give different answers to the two problems,

even though they’re just different ways

of asking exactly the same question.

Why do we give completely different answers,

when the same math problem is presented differently?

The answer lies in how we make estimates.

When you have lots of time to do a math problem,

like eight times seven times six times five

times four times three times two times one,

you can multiply all of the numbers together

and get an exact product.

But when you have to do the problem quickly,

you don’t really have time to finish.

You multiply eight times seven, and get fifty-six.

And then you’ve gotta multiply that by six, and,

well, you’re guessing the final number’s gotta be pretty big,

bigger than fifty-six, like maybe two thousand or so.

But when you do the second problem,

and two times three’s only six.

maybe only like five hundred or so.

This process of guessing based on the first number you see

is what’s known as “anchoring”.

The first number we think of when we do our estimate is the anchor.

And once we have an anchor in our head,

well, we sort of adjust as needed from there.

The problem is that our minds are biased

not to adjust as much as we need to.

The anchors are cognitively really strong.

In the first problem, you probably started with fifty-six,

and then adjusted to an even bigger number from there.

And in the second problem, you started with six,

The problem is that starting at different points leads to different final guesses.

Like real anchors,

our estimated anchors kinda get us stuck in one spot.

We often fail to drag the anchor far

enough to get to a correct answer.

Kahneman and Tversky discovered that

this sort of anchoring bias happens all the time,

even for anchors that are totally arbitrary.

For example, they asked people to spin a wheel

with numbers from one to a hundred,

and then asked them to estimate

what percentage of countries in the United Nations are African.

People who spun a ten on the wheel

estimated that the number was about twenty-five percent.

But people who spun a sixty-five

estimated that the number was forty-five percent.

In another experiment, Dan Ariely and his colleagues

had people write down the last two digitsof their social security number.

They were then asked whether they would pay that amount

in dollars for a nice bottle of wine.

Ariely and colleagues found

that people in the highest quintile of social security numbers

would pay three to four times as much for the exact same good.

Just setting up a larger anchor

can make a person who would pay eightdollars for the bottle of wine

be willing to spend twenty-seven dollars instead.

Sadly for us, sales people use anchors against us all the time.

anchoring you to a particular price,

or even to how much of a particularproduct you should buy?

Whether it’s buying a car, or a sweater,

or even renting a hotel room,

our intuitions about what prices are reasonable to pay

often come from some arbitrary anchor.

So the next time you’re given an anchor,

take a minute to think.

Remember what happens when you drop your anchor too high,

and then consider thinking of a very different number.

It might affect your final estimate more than you expect.

Subtitles by the Amara.org community

Estherrr