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美国有可能再次发生内战吗 – 译学馆
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美国有可能再次发生内战吗

Could the United States Have Another Civil War?

美国内战是什么?
What was the American civil war?
做一个简短的概述
Here’s a short recap.
内战从1861年持续到1865年
The war lasted from 1861 to 1865.
战火燃遍美国大地
It was fought all over the US
参战双方是北方的美利坚合众国
and was between the Northern states, known as the Union
和南方的美利坚联盟国
the southern states, known as the Confederates
就像一位历史学家所说
over what one historian says
自由州和畜奴州的分歧不可调和
were uncompromising differences between the free and slave states
他们争夺国家政府权
over the power of the national government
以掌控尚未设州的领土上的奴隶制度
to prohibit slavery in the territories that had not yet become state
参战人数达210万 北方兵力约为南方两倍
With 2.1 million soldiers, the Union had roughlydouble the manpower.
共计约62万士兵阵亡
About 620,000 soldiers died in all,
是美国有史以来伤亡最惨重的战争
which is the biggest loss of life in any war for the U.S.
仅在葛底斯堡一场战役中就有5万1千人丧生
51,000 died in one battle alone,at Gettysburg. Ultimately,
最终北方获胜
Ultimately, the North won.
但我们今天要讨论的问题是:内战会再次爆发吗?
But the question we’re asking today is:Could this happen again?
让我们跟随本期视频 一起探索
Let’s find out. In this episode of the Infographics Show,
美国会再次爆发内战吗?
Could the U.S. have another Civil War?
一些人认为 这绝不可能
Some of you might be thinking, hell no,
美国不可能再次被分裂了
the USA could never be that divided again.
为什么有人这样认为?
Why would anyone think that?
毕竟左派(民主党)与右派(共和党)的分歧
But the division between what we call the right and left
在现代社会显得尤为明显
has perhaps never been bigger in modern times
在社交媒体上很容易发现这一点
which is evident just by looking at social media.
右派 尤其是人们说的“另类右翼”
The right, especially what people call the Alt-right,
称左派为“雪花”
calls the Left names such as “ snowflakes ”
左翼有时也一样好斗
while the Left is sometimes equally as combative
说它的对头充满暴力 怀有敌意
when calling out its nemesis as being violent, hostile,
还种族歧视
and racist.
怎么会到这种地步
How did it ever come to this?
每一方都不愿做出让步
Each side is so unwilling to make amends,
引发的悲剧性暴乱
which has sadly resulted in riots over the
持续了好几年
last few years.
2017年 纽约客发布了一篇文章
In 2017, The New Yorker published an article
叫做“美国正走向新型内战吗?”
called “ Is America headed for a new kind of Civil war?”
文章开头这样写道:
In the beginning of the article, we read the stark lines,
“这个一直被认为是世上最稳定的民主国家——
“How fragile is the Union, our republic, and a country
我们的联邦 我们的共和国到底有多脆弱?“
that has long been considered the world ’ s most stable democracy?”
被采访人Mines
A man named Keith Mines was interviewed.
曾在联合国特种部队和国务院工作
He has worked in the Special Forces, for the U.N., and for the State Department.
根据Mines的观点
What did Mines say?
在未来10到15年内
Well, he believes that there is a 60 percent chance
有60%的机率
of civil war in the U.S in the next
爆发内战
ten to fifteen years.
是的 你没听错
Yes, you heard that right.
那么到底是怎么回事呢?
So, what’s going on?
首先我们需要说明一点
Well, firstly we should say that his idea of civil war
Mines所说的内战不是葛底斯堡战役式的大规模屠杀
is not mass bloodshed like at the battle of Gettysburg,
而是大部分美国人
but a large portion of America no longer having trust
不再相信所谓的 “体制”
in what we might call “ the system ”
于是引发某种无政府状态
and so some kind of anarchy emerges.
国民警卫队不得不出动
The National Guard will have to be called out,
武警官兵也将荷枪实弹地武装起来
and those militarized police stations will be putting their equipment to work.
据Mines的观点 这一切都将发生
This will all happen, according to Mines,
因为两极化分化正在加剧
because the polarization that we presently see will deepen,
而我们却没有解决办法
and there will be no chance to resolve it.
新闻媒体与其他媒体将会强化大众的反对意见
News media and other media will help entrench people ’ s opposing opinions,
暴力会被合法化作地为解决这些问题的唯一办法
violence will be legitimized as the only way to solve the issues,
而软弱的政府将无能为力
and the government will be too weak to do anything.
嗯 这就让人担心了
Hmm, that’s kind of disturbing.
也许Mines的想法很偏执或者说很悲观
Maybe Mines is just paranoid or maybe he’ s pessimistic,
可是他的想法真的有道理吗?
or does he have a point?
虽然2017年的时候洛杉矶时报
Well, although the LA Times in 2017
在提及一些社交媒体的评论区和某些专栏时
mentioned a slew of media op-eds and columns
也质疑过美国是否会爆发内战
that came out that year asking the same question,
但专栏作者Dennis Prager并不是在真正的发问
columnist Dennis Prager didn’t ask the question.
他只是将 “美国正在发动第二次内战” 用做文章标题
His piece was titled,“ America is currently fighting its second civil war. ”
推特上的舌战 分化的媒体
Is a war of words on Twitter, a divided media,
和被忽视的街头暴力
and negligible violence in the streets
足以说明美国处于内战中吗?
enough to state that America is at war with itself?
我们应该知道有许多明智
We should remember that there are very intelligent,
且爱好平和的人支持左翼和右翼
peace loving people endorsing right and left viewpoints,
极端左翼和右翼势力
and that zero-tolerance left andright-wingers
代表不了所有美国人
don’t represent everyone in the USA.
洛杉矶时报写道
The LA Times writes,
“正常共和党和民主党人之间分歧
“ The division between ordinary Republicans and Democrats
实则被夸大了”
has itself been overstated.”
由于相信了某些夸大的头条新闻
And perhaps if we believe the sometimes-hyperbolic headlines,
我们可能会觉得极度不安 不知该支持哪一边
we might feel unsafe enough to take a side.
“在这种气氛下 会滋生消极的党派偏见
“ The atmosphere that produces negative partisanship
加剧党派间的偏执憎恶”文章中写道
can fuel a paranoid loathing of the other party’s members,” said the article.
当今时代 每个人都可以说出自己的观点
We live in an era where everyone has a voice
同时每个观点也会吸引大量关注
and that voice can attract a lot of attention.
党派偏见只是一种形式 无关对错
Partisanship is the norm and being wrong is not an option.
那么普通的美国民众
So, what does the average American –
我们刚才详细讨论的那些人
someone we’ve discussed in detail in the past –
如何看待这件事?
think about all of this?
外交政策杂志做了一项调查
Foreign Policy magazine created a poll
向安全专家和普通民众提问
asking both security experts and the public about
内战的可能性
the chance of civil war.
受访的专家认为
The experts were all over the place,
有百分之三十或百分之六十
saying there was a 30 percent chance, a 60 percent chance,
甚至百分之九十五的可能性爆发内战
and a 95 percent chance.
但是大众要乐观许多
But the readers were way more optimistic,
他们认为只有百分之18的可能爆发战争
saying there was about an 18 percent chance of war.
如何定义战争?
How was war defined?
以下是有关描述:
This was the description given: “
“(1)针对国家重要城市的军事行动
(1) military action internal to the metropole of the state system member;
(2)国家政府积极参与
(2) the active participationof the national government;
(3)双方产生有效对抗行为
(3) effective resistance by both sides;
(4)每年至少有1000人因其死亡”
and (4) a total of at least 1,000 battle-deaths during each year of the war.”
这似乎并不涵盖爆发在郊区的全面交战
So, it seems we are not talking about all-out warfare with people in those leafy suburbs
比如 人们因为政治分歧用残忍手段攻击他们的邻居
taking their politically divided neighbors‘ head off with a Black and Dekker chainsaw.
我们说的是公众骚乱和暴力示威
We are talking about public disturbances and violent protests
它们引发的暴力行为比我们看到的多得多
leading to a lot more violence than we currently have seen.
纵观整个世界历史 这种情况也曾发生过
All over the world, throughout history, this has happened,
有时因为内讧
sometimes with factions on the same side
同一派的人甚至也刀兵相向
even taking arms against each other.
为了阻止这一切
To prevent this from happening,
外交政策杂志认为美国现在需要进行更多正式的演练
Foreign Policy says the U.S. right now needs to “ establish more formal practices
用可靠的方式识别和追踪国内的极端主义
for identifying and tracking domestic extremism —
意识到那些有党派极端倾向的
with an honest recognition that young, white males
年轻白人男性最有可能采取暴力手段
on both ends of the political spectrum are the most likely to commit violence.”
我们必须记住
We must remember that
在极端困难时期某些国家会爆发类似农民起义式的革命
things like peasant revolutions came during very harsh times in some countries,
在一些国家 当精英统治阶级坐视人民挨饿就会出现这种情况
when the hierarchy of elites were happy to see people starve.
美国的问题是
The question in America is,
时代已经坏到人们愿意牺牲生命
are times bad enough for people to want to give their lives
去革命了吗?
to the cause.
或许没有
Probably not.
但这也是一个偏执的时代
But these are also paranoid times,
因此 当审核和审查制度波及某些网络内容时
so when moderation and censorship affects certain content online,
只是在进一步宣扬和证实它被编辑或删去的内容
it only infuriates and vindicates those it edits or expunges.
这是很棘手的情况
It’s a tricky situation.
我们必须认识到工业技术的预言:
We might also recognize that the soothsayers of technology tell us
自动化将使许多美国人失业
automation is going to put a huge number of Americans out of work,
那些技术的拥有者将会有
and that those that own the tech
过大的权力和控制力
will have way too much power and control.
会爆发一场革命去反对这一切吗
Will there be a revolution against this,
会爆发一场新时期的勒德分子式的起义吗?
a kind of new-age Luddite uprising?
如果能从历史中汲取经验
If we can see our mistakes throughout history,
当权者应当知道
those in power should know that the people
人民需要被保护和关心
need to be protected and cared for,
以免他们拿起传说的干草叉
lest they pick up the proverbial pitchfork
(或者冲锋枪)
( or in this case, an assault rifle).
外交政策杂志赞同并表示“ 因为政府和公司领导
Foreign Policy agrees, writing, “As our government and corporate leaders
不断解构法律规范和经济机遇
continue to deconstruct rule of law and economic opportunity,
社会标准降低了 犯罪空间也扩大了”
the norms degrade and the space for transgression becomes bigger.”
总之 你会站在哪一边?
Whose side would you be on anyway?
芝加哥护民官写道
As the Chicago Tribune writes,
事情不会那么简单
it would not be that simple,
因此 新内战将会非常碎片化
so a new civil war would be very fragmented.
它会发生在各洲的内部 而不是州与州之间
It would happen inside states, rather than between them.
在一些贫富差距很大的州
Perhaps the ‘ haves ’ will revolt
富人也许会和穷人开战
against the ‘ have nots’ in some very divided states,
因为教育水平因某些群体降低了
especially as education standards drop for some,
一部分人无法享受医疗保险
healthcare is out of reach for many,
老工业垮台因为人工智能已经取代人类智慧
and old industries are folded because artificial intelligence has supplanted human intelligence.
如果你看看沃尔玛和亚马逊
If you look at Walmart and Amazon
美国最大的两个雇主
the two biggest employers in the USA
看看他们的新技术和新专利
and see their new tech and new patents,
不难看出 他们似乎都希望尽快
it seems they are both looking to take human workers
替换掉人工劳动力
out of their stores ASAP.
其导致的后果超过政治问题 党派正确和对老大哥的恐惧
This could cause problems beyond politics, political correctness, and Big Brother fears.
大规模的失业会产生对国家的新一轮不满浪潮
Mass unemployment could create a new wave of discontent in the nation.
美国人民对此有何想法?
What do Americans think about all of this?
这个问题已经在quora上被提问了几次
The question has been asked a few times onQuora.
一位美国民众直言道
One American didn’t mince words, saying,
“当今世界发生的大多数党派之争 外国干涉
“ We’re talking many, many factions, foreign intervention,
暴行 强奸 谋杀
brutality, rape, murder,
严刑逼供都发生在美国的广袤土地上”
torture, all of it over huge areas of the U.S. ”
令人不安的是许多人也有类似看法
The unsettling thing is, many other people thought the same, or similar.
另一些人认为这种暴力行为是随机的
Others said there would be random acts of violence,
在电影《妙想天开》中
invoking the movie Brazil,
全国到处都有爆炸事件 小规模极端分子组织遍布全国
where bombs go off all over the country, planted by small extremist groups.
另一些人就不会这么悲观了
Others weren ’ t so pessimistic,
就像我们之前说的 或许情况不会那么绝望
stating as we said earlier that perhaps the desperation level
人们并不想杀人或者被杀
won’ t get that far and people won ’ t be willing to kill, or be killed,
如果他们享受着相对舒适和安全的环境
if they still have some relative comforts and a security net
而这是很多国家提供不了的
that many other nations don ’ t currently offer their citizens.
因此我们能做什么取决于你
So, all we can do is turn this over to you.
你认为美国还会爆发内战吗?
Do you think the US can have another civilwar?
如果是 你支持哪边?
If so, what side would you be on?
欢迎在评论区留言
Let us know in the comments!
敬请收看下期视频
Also be sure to check out our other video
如果全世界是一个国家会怎样?
called What If The World Was One Country?
感谢您的观看
Thanks for watching,
如果喜欢我们的视频 请多点赞 分享 订阅
and, as always, don ’ t forget to like, share, and subscribe.
下期再见
See you next time!

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视频概述

政治,党派,和极端分子会影响社会稳定,但技术发展导致的大规模失业潮和贫富差距悬殊也不可忽视

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收集自网络

翻译译者

少年阿宾

审核员

审核员 D

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GoTlDiIOruI

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