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太阳能地球工程能对抗全球变暖吗?

Could solar geoengineering counter global warming? | The Economist

This was one of the biggest volcanic explosions in history
皮纳图博火山爆发是有史以来最大的火山爆发之一
Daybreak and Mount Pinatubo bursts angrily into life again
皮纳图博火山再次猛烈爆发 烟柱直冲天际
It happened on June 15th 1991 in the north-west of the Philippines
这次爆发 发生于1991年6月15日 菲律宾西北部
It was so powerful
其威力巨大
it produced a gas cloud that reached the stratosphere
爆发形成的毒气火山云甚至喷射到平流层
The explosion caused a lot of damage locally
火山爆发给当地带来巨大的损失
but the cloud itself did something extraordinary
但火山云本身实现了一些意想不到的事情
it lowered the Earth’s temperature for four years
它使地球温度下降 并持续了四年时间
Sulphur dioxide in the cloud created particles
火山云中的二氧化硫形成颗粒物
which spread around the Earth
在地球上遍布弥散
These then reflected some of the sun’s rays into space
将一部分太阳光反射到太空中
Scientists are looking to mimic the effects of this phenomenon
科学家们试图模仿这种现象所产生的效应
to counter global warming
来应对全球变暖
It’s a highly controversial concept
这一备受争议的概念
known as solar geoengineering
就是所谓的太阳能地球工程
Climate change is probably the biggest problem humanity faces today
气候变化可能是当今人类面临的最严峻的问题
In the past 25 years
在过去的25年里
the global average temperature has risen by around 0.5°C
全球平均气温上升大约0.5°C
The accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere is warming the Earth up
大气中的碳含量积累使地球不断升温
making more intense hurricanes, rains, higher temperatures
导致强飓风增多 暴雨频发 气温不断攀升
So far governments have focused on policies for cutting emissions
迄今为止 各国政府都致力于出台减排政策
but they keep rising
但碳排放仍在增加
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
1994年以来 大气中二氧化碳的浓度
has risen 15% since 1994
已经增加了15%
The Paris agreement, signed by 175 parties in 2016
2016年 由175个缔约方签署的《巴黎协定》表明
was a sign that countries were willing to work together to cut emissions
各国愿意携起手来 共同推进减排工作
But not every world leader is on board
但并非所有国家领导人都愿意入伙
The Paris Climate Accord is simply the latest example of
《巴黎气候协定》就是美国加入
Washington entering into an agreement that disadvantages the United States
对自身不利协定的最新的例子
If emissions aren’t reduced, what next?
如果碳排放量不减少 接下来会发生什么呢?
Theoretically solar geoengineering could cool the entire planet
从理论上讲 太阳能地球工程能冷却整个地球
It’s actually potentially incredibly simple
这实际上可能是非常简单的
because all you need to do is inject a bunch of particles into the stratosphere
因为所需要做的就是在平流层释放大量粒子
and there’s a number of ways you could do that
有很多种方法能做到这一点
Recently a study out of Yale and Harvard
最近 一项来自耶鲁大学和哈佛大学的研究
looked at the details of how this would be done
详细探讨了如何做到这一点
In that Harvard and Yale study
在哈佛大学和耶鲁大学的研究中
they imagined building a fleet of planes up to 95 of them
他们设想建立一支多达95架飞机的机队
that would make 60,000 flights a year
每年可飞行六万次
The fleet would spread hundreds of thousands of tonnes
这支机队每年向平流层
of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere every year
释放数十万吨二氧化硫
After 15 years
预计15年后
they reckon the world would cool by 0.3°C
地球温度会下降0.3°C
But there are reasons not to do this
但我们也有不这样做的理由
One of the biggest concerns
最大的顾虑之一是
is that it could make governments complacent
这可能会让政府对其作为沾沾自喜
The big worry
主要的担忧在于
is that it will be exploited to argue against emissions cuts
这会被用来否定减排行为
Geoengineering is a supplement to cutting emissions
地球工程是减排的补充
not a substitute for cutting emissions
而不是减排的替代品
It would also be politically messy
这也会导致政治上的混乱局面
If the plan is to put a thermostat on the Earth
假如计划是在地球上安装一个恒温器
deciding who has their hand on the dial won’t be easy
要决定谁有权利操控调节盘并不容易
For it to have a global effect
要想让它在全球范围内发挥作用
you’re going to need all governments on board
需要所有政府都参与进来
and that is going to be extremely difficult
那是异常困难的
If a country went alone and decided to do it on its own
如果一个国家孤军奋战 决定独自行动起来
then obviously because the impacts are going to be regional or global,
那么很明显 因为这个行为的影响是区域性或全球性的
you could create a lot of international tension
就会导致国际关系紧张程度加剧
A Swiss proposal to study geoengineering
最近 瑞士在联合国环境大会上
and how it should be regulated was recently put forward at the UN Environment Assembly
就研究地球工程和如何监管发出了提议
But America and Saudi Arabia opposed the motion
但美国和沙特阿拉伯对反对这项提议
possibly because they don’t want international regulation of geoengineering
可能是因为他们不希望地球工程受到国际监管
As things stand.
就目前的情况来看
not enough is known about how it could impact the climate
关于地球工程会如何影响气候或者大气化学
or the chemistry of the atmosphere
人们的认识还不够充分
There could be unexpected consequences
地球工程可能产生难以预料的后果
You can affect rain patterns
可能影响降雨模式
and you might cause a region that is already suffering from drought
可能导致一个已经饱受干旱之苦的地区
to have even less water
水资源更加匮乏
A lot more basic research both into
我们需要开展更多基础研究
how we would do it but also
既要研究我们应该怎么做
what the consequences of it would be if we did it in one way or in another way is needed
也要研究我们这样做或那样做 分别有怎样的后果
But of course if we don’t do it
当然 如果我们不启用地球工程的话
there’s deep uncertainty about how much climate change we get
空气中二氧化碳达到一定程度后导致的气候变化
for a given amount of CO₂ in the air
有着非常大的不确定性
Both of those are risky, both are uncertain, the question is
两种做法都有风险 充满不确定性 问题在于
which has higher risk?
哪种做法的风险更高?
The politics of solar geoengineering are so complex
太阳能地球工程学面对如此复杂的政治环境
that it might never happen
可能永远不会付诸实行
That said, as the world continues to warm
这就是说 随着全球持续升温
the case for exploring radical measures grows stronger
亟需探索从根本上解决问题的方案

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视频概述

来自经济学人的科技报道,介绍在地球变暖的大背景下我们可能的出路。从火山爆发带来的降温效果出发,介绍了当今形式下太阳能地球工程无法实现的原因。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

太平盐

审核员

审核员LJ

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGdz5gYqm-o

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