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人类会度过核冬天吗

Could Humans Survive a Nuclear Winter?

大家好
Hi, there!
欢迎来到品生活
Welcome to Life Noggin!
在1983年
In 1983
一组科学家包括
a team of scientists including
天体物理学家卡尔·萨根
astrophysicist Carl Sagan
作出了一个不详并可怕的预测
made an ominous and terrifying prediction.
发生核战时
That in the event of a nuclear war
所有炸弹本身所造成的伤害
on top of all the damage from the bombs themselves.
可以让地球进入核冬天
Our world may enter what is known as a nuclear winter.
这可能非常糟糕
And this might be so bad
同样科学家们认为它的影响
that those same scientists think its effects
可能与战争发生的即时效应一样可怕
might be just as important as the immediate effects of the war itself.
什么是核冬天呢
So what is a nuclear winter anyway?
简单来说 就是环境的破坏
Well, it’s basically the environmental devastation
这可能是数百颗核弹造成的
that might come from hundreds
而不是数以千计
if not thousands of nuclear bombs.
这些核弹爆炸产生巨大的火焰风暴
See, these bombs would cause massive fire storms.
特别是 他们落在大城市中
Especially if they are dropped on large cities.
爆炸造成的烟雾 烟尘 灰尘会升上天
And the smoke, soot and dust would rise up
到平流层 并且在全球范围内传播开来
to the stratosphere and spread globally.
从这里
And from here
表面温度降低
surface temperatures could lower
臭氧层会变得更薄
the O-zone layer could get thinner
甚至可能发生全球饥荒
and we could even be thrown into a global famine.
但我们能生存下来吗
But could we survive it?
最近一组科研人员
Well, a team of researchers recently
模拟在小型核冬天的情况下
simulated what would happen in the case of a relatively
会发生什么
small nuclear winter.
当然 实验结果肯定是不好的
And their findings are definitely not good.
抱歉
Sorry.
假设印度和巴基斯坦之间发生一场核战
The imagined nuclear war between India and Pakistan
两个国家相互投放50颗原子弹。
where the countries collectively dropped 100 nuclear bombs
每颗核弹跟
each about the size of the bomb the U.S
美国投在广岛的原子弹大小相当
used on Hiroshima.
他们发现黑炭
They found that the black carbon
也就是烟尘的主要组成部分
which is a major component of soot
会上升到平流层吸收阳光
would rise to the stratosphere and absorb sun light.
这将加热平流层
This would heat up the stratosphere and
降低地球表面
decrease the surface temperature of the earth
和海洋上面的100米的温度
and the upper 100 meters of the ocean.
也就是 核冬天中的冬天
Hence the “winter” part of nuclear winter.
警惕起来 伙计们
Be warned, guys!
冬天就要来了
Winter is coming.
如果我的计算是正确的
And if my calculations are correct
我认为这是品生活中说过的
I think that is the 100th Game of Thrones’ reference
第100集权力的游戏的参考
we have made on Life Noggin.
恭喜啊
Congratulations, everybody!
平流层的气温上升可能
The temperature increase in the stratosphere might also
导致臭氧层的巨大空缺
cause major losses in the O-zone layer
这将导致地球被暴露在更多的紫外线中
which would cause more exposure to ultraviolet radiation
损害我们的健康
damaging our health
和我们的农作物
and our agricultural crops.
事实上 农作物将会度过一个非常困难的时期
In fact, crops are gonna have a really hard time
因为在核冬天中有更少的雨
because there will be less rain during a nuclear winter.
和更少的时间去给农作物去生长
And there’ll be less time for the crops to grow
因为霜冻把它们杀死了
because of killing frosts.
并且随着农作物的减少和可能的紫外线
And with the reduction in crops and possible UV damage
对水生生物的伤害
to aquatic life
我们很大可能经历饥荒
we may even experience a famine.
并且这些影响都不是短暂的
And these effects aren’t short-lived.
有研究人员预测 五年内
Within 5 years, the researchers predicted that
地球将大约降低1.6度
the earth will be around 1.6 degrees Celsius cooler
并且在未来二十年中会降低约1.1度
and around 1.1 degrees cooler over the next 20 years.
并且臭氧层的损失将持续十年
And the O-zone layer losses will persist for a decade.
记住
And remember
所有的这些损害都建立在
all of this damage was predicted when only
投下100个核弹的基础上
100 nuclear bombs were dropped.
目前全球有15000个核武器
Currently, there are 15,000 nuclear weapons world wide.
所以如果是100枚炸弹或者更少
So if it’s 100 bombs or less
或许你会活过
it is possible that you can survive the
饥荒和其他暴露在
famine and other consequences of increased exposure
紫外线辐射的后果中
to UV radiation.
但是如果曾经有场核战争
But if there is ever a nuclear war
更大规模
that is larger
核冬天可能会有更大的毁灭性
the in suing nuclear winter might be even more devastating.
所以让我们祈祷吧
So, let’s hope we never have to worry about that.
因为……
Because…
我只是谈到它都感觉到害怕
…it scared me just talking about it.
接下来你要谈论什么
What do you want us to talk about next?
在下面的评论栏请让我知道
Let me know in the comment section below.
这一集引起了我的思考
This episode got me thinking
几十年前
a few decades ago
美国和苏联之间冷战爆发
a cold war broke out between the U.S and the Soviet Union.
如果战争升级成核战争
What if that wear went nuclear?
我们的好朋友“交替的历史”探索了许多主意
Our good friend “Alternate History Hub” explores that every idea.
简单的电脑故障或错误传达
Simple computer glitches or miscommunication
几乎导致世界末日
almost led to the end of the world
很多次了
many times.
但凭借的仅仅是运气罢了
But through just luck
我们投放过六次但没有爆炸
we kept rolling sixes and didn’t blow ourselves up.
耶!
Yay!
但是如果在另一个时间线……
But what if in a alternate time line…
那会怎样
…we did?
如果你在手机上那么有个描述的链接
There’s a link in the description if you are on mobile.
最后 我是Blocko
As alway, I’m Blocko.
这里是品生活
This has been Life Noggin.
不要忘记
Don’t forget…
继续思考
…to keep on thinking.

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCgXGfQZXyo

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