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2041年的科幻生活

Chen Qiufan: A sci-fi vision of life in 2041 | TED

It’s 2041.
欢迎来到2041年
The world is even stranger than fiction.
这里的世界比小说描述的还要怪诞离奇
Full of astonishing technologies and scientific advances.
满是令人惊讶的技术和科技进步
But there’s still one thing that is very familiar.
但有件事 人们仍然熟知
COVID is still with us.
冠状病毒仍然存在
We’ve just figured out how to live with it.
我们只是弄清楚了如何与之共存
You haven’t been outside of your apartment for three years.
你居家未出已有3年
The pandemic of 2021 traumatized you.
2021年的疫情重创了你的心灵
You still have the nightmares about losing your grandparents
你仍然会做噩梦 梦见失去祖父母
and despite advances,
尽管技术进步
fear of infection has kept you inside and isolated.
因为害怕感染 你一直居家隔离
You’ve just found out
你发现
that the lover you met in an immersive online game
你在沉浸式网络游戏中结识的恋人
has flown halfway around the world to meet you.
飞越了半个地球来见你
But now he’s quarantined in the hospital,
但他现在正在医院检疫隔离
stricken with a new, extremely virulent variant of the virus.
他感染上了病毒的新型恶性变体
It looks like he might die even before you met him.
在你见到他之前 他可能就会死去
You decide you’ve got to venture out,
你决定冒险一把
into the dangerous world beyond your four walls.
走出四壁屋宅 到危险的外部世界中去
Luckily, there are robots to help you.
幸运的是 有机器人帮你
Your housekeeping robot takes you to a special elevator
你的家务机器人带你来到一个只供机器人
reserved for robots only,
使用的特殊电梯里
allowing you to completely avoid people.
这样你就能完全避免与人接触
It’s crammed with all manners of bots.
电梯里挤满了各种机器人
DeliveryBot,
运送机器人
CleaningBot, SeniorCareBot, DogWalkingBot,
清洁机器人 高端护理机器人 犬行机器人
even the walls and ceiling are covered with
墙上和天花板上甚至覆盖着
DisinfectionBots that resemble insects.
像昆虫一样的消毒机器人
You cautiously step out on the street for the first time,
你第一次小心翼翼地走上了街道
eyeing the passers-by with suspicion.
满眼怀疑地看着过往人群
You rely on your Safety Circle app on your mobile device to keep you safe.
你靠移动设备中的安全圈程序来保护自己
It alerts you with a vibration or buzz
如果有潜在病毒携带者靠近
if potential virus carriers step too close.
程序就会振动或发声警报
The biosensor membranes on your inner wrist
你手腕内部的生理传感膜
display real time physiological data,
能够展现实时的生理数据
including the expiration of various vaccines —
包括各种疫苗的到期日期
and yours are three years out of date!
而你的疫苗已经到期三年了!
Without this electric identification film,
没有电子识别层件
you definitely can’t get to the hospital,
你肯定不能进入医院
or anywhere, as it’s needed to access transportation.
或者任何其他需要交通准入的场所
Meanwhile, your device streams
与此同时 你的设备照射出
real-time medical status of your dying lover,
垂危恋人的实时医疗状况
making it hard not to panic.
这使你很慌张
You race against the clock.
你得和时间赛跑
When you make it in time?
你何时能够及时抵达?
Can you even get there?
你能够到达那里吗?
You can.
当然可以
Thanks to AI-automated processes,
多亏了自动化人工智能程序
it was possible to synthesize a quick-fix drug for your lover.
它能为你的恋人合成快速修复药物
And technologies such as AlphaFold
例如AlphaFold的技术
will accelerate the speed of vaccine development from years to weeks.
能够将疫苗的研制从数年加速到只需数周
So, what else could happen in 2041?
那么 2041年还会发生什么呢?
Anti-fake detectors are part of the standard configuration for cybersecurity.
反伪装探测器会成为网络安全配置的一部分
The abuse of technology such as deepfakes to spread rumors and hatred
技术的滥用 比如用于传播谣言和仇恨的深度伪装技术
increase conflicts and tear the society apart,
会加剧矛盾冲突 使社会分裂
it’s a thing of the past.
但现在已是往事 不会再发生
Real personalized learning finally arrives
真正的个性化学习终于到来
with customized AI companions that calibrate creativity,
定制版人工智能陪护能够平等地
communication and compassion to each individual equally.
校准每位个体的创造力 沟通力和共情力
Educational technology no longer exacerbates class divisions.
教育技术不再加剧阶级分化
With digital twins enabled by natural language processing
自然语言处理技术支持的数字孪生技术
and XR technologies,
和拓展现实技术
Kobe Bryant, Maradona and Whitney Houston would be reborn
科比·布莱恩特 马拉多纳以及惠特妮·休斯顿将会重生
and become immortal virtual characters
并成为不朽的虚拟角色
in your customized entertainment experience.
出现在为你定制的娱乐体验中
2041 is just around the corner.
2041年即将到来
Only 20 years away.
只有20年之久
And most of us watching this talk will, if lucky enough,
观看此视频的大部分人 如果足够幸运
be alive to experience it.
都能够体会经历到这些
That’s why, together with the artificial intelligence expert, Dr. Kai-Fu Lee,
这便是为何我决定和人工智能专家李开复博士一起
I chose to write a book that blends science fiction realism
写一本融合科幻与现实主义的小说
with the analysis, not just of technology,
该小说有着分析 不仅只有科幻技术
but also the big ideas that animate technology.
还有活用技术的宏大构想
When most think of AI in science fiction,
多数人想起科幻小说中的人工智能
it’s often dystopian.
经常是反乌托邦的
HAL 9000, Terminator, Ex Machina —
HAL 9000 终结者 机械姬
The AI always feels competitive, hostile,
人工智能经常让人感到竞争与敌意
the outlook for humanity bleak.
让人类的前景未来荒凉无望
But with our book, we explore a different approach.
但在我们的书中 我们另辟蹊径
We spent almost two years
我们花了将近2年时间
visiting labs and AI scientists,
参观实验室 拜访AI科学家们
entrepreneurs, researchers and scholars,
企业家 研究者以及学者们
trying to figure out the most realistic road map of AI development over the next 20 years.
尝试找出人工智能未来20年最为现实的发展道路
The AI technology we researched into for the book
我们在此书中引入了许多人工智能技术
range from natural-language processing
从自然语言处理技术到
to GPT-3, to augmented mixed virtual reality,
GPT-3人工智能 再到混合强化虚拟现实
computer vision, GANs, brain-computer interfaces.
计算机视觉 生成对抗网络 脑机接口等等
We put all this solid know-how
我们将这些切实可行的知识技能
into predictions and futuristic storytellings,
进行预测并赋予其未来主义的故事叙述
set in 10 different cities all around the world.
故事发生在世界上10个不同的城市
It was not easy to tell stories in that way.
要如此讲故事并不容易
But without disregarding AI’s faults and nuances,
考虑到人工智能的缺点和细微差别
Kai-Fu and I endeavor to portray a future
李开复先生和我努力去描绘这样一个未来
where AI technology could influence individuals and societies positively.
人工智能技术能对个体与社会产生积极影响
We wish to represent how individuals
我们想要展现有着不同文化
from disparate cultures and industries, with different identities
行业与身份的个体将如何对人工智能
would react to the future shock induced by AI.
引起的未来冲击做出反应
Let’s get back to 2021, the present.
让我们回到2021 回到当下
The pandemic still spans the world.
疫情仍然遍及全球
The people are still unemployed,
人们仍然失业
isolated from friends, family and nature.
仍然与朋友 家人和大自然相隔离
Will AI really solve all these problems?
人工智能能够真正解决这些问题吗?
From modern submarine to the laser gun,
从现代潜艇到镭射枪
from mobile phones to CRISPR,
从智能手机到CRISPR基因剪辑技术
many scientists will admit inspiration from fiction.
科学家们都从小说中获得灵感
Imagination does shape the world.
想象的确能够塑造世界
So for every future we wish to create,
为了我们想要创造的未来
we must first learn to imagine it.
我们必须学会想象
By imagining the future through science fiction,
通过阅读科幻小说对未来进行想象
we can even step in, make changes
我们甚至能够干预其中 做出改变
and actively play a role in shaping our reality.
积极发挥作用 塑造现实
Thank you.
谢谢

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视频概述

中国科幻小说作家陈楸帆对于未来的构造与思考。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Arthur

审核员

审核员TOP

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_-XnRVZ42U

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