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你能解开这个巫师僵局的谜团吗? – 译学馆
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你能解开这个巫师僵局的谜团吗?

Can you solve the wizard standoff riddle? - Dan Finkel

敬请关注片尾的有奖竞猜谜题
你被选作勇士代表你的巫师机构
You’ve been chosen as a championto represent your wizarding house
去参加与两所巫术学校相对抗的死亡决斗
in a deadly duel against two rival magic schools.
你的对手都很可怕
Your opponents are fearsome.
来自纽特—尼兹学校的
From the Newt-niz school,
是一位强大的男巫师 挥动魔法棒就会让人变成鱼
a powerful sorcerer wields a wand that can turn people into fish,
但他的咒语只有70%的成功率
but his spell only works 70% of the time.
来自莱布—顿学校
And from the Leib-ton school,
一个更可怕的女巫
an even more powerful enchantress
挥动魔法棒能让人变成雕塑
wields a wand that turns people to statues,
而且有90%的成功率
and it works 90% of the time.
命数已定
Lots are drawn,
在决斗中 你是第一位施咒者
and you ’ re chosen to cast the first spell in the duel.
纽特—尼兹的巫师是第二位
The Newt-niz magician will go second,
第三位是莱布—顿的巫师
and the Leib-ton enchantress third,
一轮结束后 按顺序再重复进行
after which you ’ ll repeat casting in that order
直到你们中只有一人留下
until only one of you is left.
巫术决斗的规则很严格
The rules of magic duels are strict,
违反规则的人将被立即罚下场
and anyone who casts out oforder immediately forfeits the duel.
而且 为避免平局
Also, to prevent draws,
规则指出 如果第一轮比赛结束时
the rules stipulate that if everyone ’ s still standing
每个人都完好无损的站着
at the end of the first round,
三人都会变成猫
you ’ ll all be turned into cats.
现在 你必须选择一根魔法棒
Now, you must choose a wand.
你的巫师机构给了你三种选择:
Your wizarding house presents youwith three options:
班纳克魔法棒 施咒的对象会被葡萄藤束缚
the Bannekar, which bindsone target with vines
施咒的成功率是60%
and casts effectively 60% of the time,
高斯魔法棒 可将施咒的对象变成一棵树
the Gaussian,which turns one target into a tree
成功率80%
and works 80% of the time,
最神奇的诺特9000魔法棒
and the incredibly rare Noether 9000,
可将施咒对象放逐至高山之巅
which banishes one targetto a distant mountaintop
成功率为100%
and casts perfectly 100% of the time.
你的对手像精通巫术一样工于心计
Your opponents are masters of strategy,as well as sorcery,
而且你也知道他们会
and you know they ’ ll make the
做出最有利于自己胜出的选择
choices that maximize their own chances of success.
你该选择哪一根魔法棒呢?
Which wand should you choose
你该实施哪种策略来增加自己的胜算呢?
and what strategy should you employ to have the greatest chance of winning the duel?
如果想自己寻找答案 暂停视频吧!
Pause the video now if you want to figure it out for yourself!
3
Answer in: 3
2
Answer in: 2
1 答案揭晓
Answer in: 1
首先 你会选择诺特9000
You reach for the Noether 9000 first.
毕竟 这意味着你拥有战局中
After all, it makes sense to enter the duel
最强大的魔法棒
with the most powerful wand.
但在选它之前 得考虑接下来会发生什么
But before you pick it up, you considerwhat would happen.
你作为最危险的巫师存在
As the most dangerous wizard,
将成为其他二人的攻击目标
you’d also be the targetof the other two magicians,
而且你需要提防他们中最危险的一人
and you ’ d need to take care of the most dangerous of them first.
但是接下来
But afterward,
你仍有70%的可能会被幸存者击倒
there’s a 70% chance you’d be struck down by the remaining wizard.
那就糟了
That’s trouble.
可能选择高斯魔法棒后果会好些
Maybe it’s better to take the Gaussian.
它有80%的成功率
It works 80% of the time,
就是说 在女巫被击倒前 你不会变成攻击的目标
which means you wouldn ’ t be a target until the enchantress was incapacitated.
但是如果你成功把她变成树了
But if you succeeded in transforming her,
你接着就会被变成鱼
you’d probably be turnedinto a fish immediately after.
如果你把男巫变成树的话
If you transformed the sorcerer,
女巫极有可能会把你变成石头
the enchantress would almost certainly turn you to stone.
如果能避开的话就再好不过了
It would really be better if you missed.
这时你脑海中冒出了一个想法
And that ’ s when you have an idea:
如果选了高斯魔法棒 然后再故意失手呢?
what if you took the Gaussian, then missed on purpose? Then,
就等着男巫攻击女巫
you would wait for the sorcererto attack the enchantress,
你就有了80%胜过男巫师的几率
and you’d have an 80% chanceof winning against the sorcerer.
这个主意不错 但问题是
It’s a good idea, but there’s a problem;
男巫也可能故意失手
the sorcerer could also pass his turn
女巫知道自己不可能在
and the enchantress, knowing that she couldn ’ t pass
不变成猫的情况下通过第一轮
without becoming a cat,
她会向你们中的一个施咒
would cast her spell on one of you.
又因为你比男巫危险度高
And since you’re the most dangerousbetween you and the sorcerer,
你会成为她的攻击对象
you’d be the target.
这时你就知道自己该怎么做了:
And that’s when you seewhat you really need to do:
选择最弱的班纳克魔法棒 再故意失手
take the weakest wand, the Bannekar,and miss on purpose.
男巫知道自己将会是女巫的攻击对象
Now the sorcerer knows thathe’ll be targeted by the enchantress
为避免自己被变成石头
and he ’ ll have to try to turn her
他会试着把女巫变成鱼
into a fish to avoid being turned into stone.
他有70%的成功率
Seventy percent of the time he’d succeed
而且在下一轮开始后
and you’d have a 60% chanceof winning the duel
你有60%赢得决斗的胜算
at the beginning of the next round.
如果失败了 他有可能会被变成石头
If he fails, chances are he’ll beturned to stone
而你还是会有60%的可能
and you ’ d still have a 60 % chance
胜过女巫 赢得决斗
of winning the duel against the enchantress.
有很低的3%的可能 你们都会被变成猫
There’s a slim 3% chanceyou’ll all be turned into cats,
但是综合考虑后
but when everything ’ s accounted for,
按这个策略的话 你有一多半的成功率
you have better than even odds of winning with this strategy.
这就是你能做到的极致了
And that’s the best you can do.
这里是所有的策略和其对应的赢率
Here ’ s what the probability of winning for the different strategies looks like.
谁都想不到吧 最好的进攻
Who would’ve thoughtthat the best way to take your shot
就是放弃攻击
would be to throw away your shot?
想了解更多死亡之局吗?
Hungry for more deadly duels?
试一下这个吧
Try this one now.
你同对手将在两个各盛有五个苹果的碗之间做出选择
You and your oppoent have to choose between two bowls of five apples each.
绿色的碗中 有两个苹果是有毒的
In the green bowl, two of the apples are poisonous,
红色的碗里 三个有毒
and in the red bowl, three are.
但是如果你选了绿碗
But if you choose the green bowl
你得随机吃三个苹果
you’ll have to eat three of the apples at random.
但是如果你选了红碗
And if you choose the red bowl,
吃两个就行
you’ll have to eat two at random.
关键在于 吃一个毒苹果没事儿
Here is the catch, eat one poisonou apple and you’ll be fine,
吃两个就会挂掉
but two will kill you.
你会选择哪一个碗呢 还是都可以?
Which bowl should you choose or does it not even matter.
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分解开来
into its component pieces,
逐个击破 最终得出结论
think clearly through each part and build it back up to the conclusion.
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Hone your instinct at BRILLIANT.ORG/TEDED
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and use that link, so they know we send you.
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Better yet, the first eight hundred thirty three of you
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他们将会发邮告知你苹果谜题的解决方案
BRILLIANT will email you the solution to their apple riddle.

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视频概述

你被派去参加死亡决斗 有三根魔法棒 怎样才能取胜呢?

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

来吧!尉英俊

审核员

审核员 V

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmkCS5eA4f8

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