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谷歌可以预测谁会犯罪? – 译学馆
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谷歌可以预测谁会犯罪?

Can Google Predict Who Will Commit Crimes? | Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

一个潜在犯罪的人一定会犯罪吗?
Is future-crime really a crime?
是的 这是个问题
Yeah, so a big question.
如果你看过这个《少数派报告》这个电影的话
If anybody’s seen the movie “Minority Report”,
可以看到人们在犯罪之前
where people are arrested for crimes,
会被逮捕
before they actually commit them,
因为数据显示他们将犯罪
just because the data suggests they’re going to commit a crime.
我们要进入一个有如此多可数据化的世界吗?
Are we entering this world with so much data available?
互联网上有明确的证据
And there definitely are clues on the Internet
可以证明人们想要犯罪
that people are considering committing a crime.
我的意思是 人们在谷歌上搜索
I mean people really do type
“怎样杀死女朋友?”
“how to kill your girlfriend” on Google,
“怎样谋杀?”
or “how to commit a murder”.
作为社会公民 我们应该怎样利用这些信息呢?
And so what should we do with this information as a society?
我认为我们必须特别特别的小心
I think we have to be really, really careful.
由于道德和隐私原因 我们更应该小心对待
There’s an ethical and privacy reason to be careful.
作为社会公民 我们不应违法 产生一些邪恶的念头
As a society, it’s not supposed to be illegal to have bad thoughts.
但我认为这也有数据科技的原因
But I think there’s also a data science reason for this.
你能在数据中看到
One of the things that you do see in this data
许多人有邪恶的想法
is that a lot of people have horrific thoughts,
或者搜索了一些令人毛骨悚然的东西
or make horrific searches,
即使还没有进行违法行为
without ever going through with a horrific action.
当我们拥有这些数据后
So it may be that when we have all this data,
也许我们能精准地计算出
we think we’re just going to be able to figure out like exactly
有人可能会有犯罪或做坏事的风险
who is a risk of committing a crime or doing something bad,
但这可能真的很难实现
but it may be that it’s just really, really hard,
因为有很大一部分人在记录上看起来恶贯满盈
because a huge percentage of people look really, really bad on paper,
但从未犯罪
but never go through with the action.
普罗斯柏有一项对等借款公司的研究
There is a study of Prosper, a peer-to-peer lending firm.
这样 人们能申请贷款
So people can apply for loans,
然后学者分析 贷款申请
and scholars analyzed the loan application,
人们所写的贷款材料
what people wrote in their loan application,
以及他们是否能归还贷款
and whether they paid back their loan.
他们发现
And they found that
预测人们是否能归还贷款
you could predict whether someone will pay back the loan,
基于人们在申请材料上所使用的字眼
based on the words that person used in their loan application.
如果申请者使用词组 “我承诺”
So if a person uses the phrase “I promise”,
那么他们不太可能还款
they’re much less likely to pay back a loan,
因为我们认为这是谎言
because I guess everybody lies,
所以“我承诺”就是一条
so “I promise” is a clue
申请者可能不会还款的线索
that you’re not going to pay back the loan.
所有关键词中 有一条更明显的指示
And one of them, one of this more striking indicators,
它是指标最高的数据之一
one of the single highest indicators
那就是如果你在申请材料中用“上帝”这个词的话
you’re not going to pay back the loan,
你就很可能不会还款
is if you use the word “God” in your loan application.
这真是一个奇怪的现象
And this is kind of a little bit eerie,
它介是了一个潜在的黑暗未来
and suggests a potentially dark future.
这意味着贷款者
It means that someone, a lender,
可以明智地拒绝借款
would be “wise” to not give a loan
给那些提及“上帝”的人
to anybody who mentions God.
如果有人在贷款材料中说“愿上帝保佑你”
If someone says, “God bless you” in a loan application,
他们就会被归为同一类借贷者
they’re put together in a large group of other people,
一般来说 这类借贷者是不会还款的
who tend, on average, not to pay back their loans.
但有些大数据 可能是非常危险的
So there’s real danger to some of this big data,
因为这些大数据相互联系
where a lot of the correlation,
各种数据之间相互关联
everything kind of correlates with everything else,
有时基于某些原因 我们还不太明了
and sometimes for reasons that we don’t understand,
通过人们使用的字或者他们发表的脸书
some words people use, or likes they have on Facebook,
去预测他们是否要干坏事
predict that they’re going to do bad things,
即使他们还没有付诸行动
even if they’re not really going to do bad things,
他们甚至在知道原因前 就可能受到惩罚了
and they may be punished without even realizing why.
你可以看看谷歌上与宗教有关的搜索数据
One thing you see in the Google search data related to religion
就可以找到很多有问题的人
is the questions people have,
而且他们通常会关注圣经地带
and they’re usually concentrated in the Bible Belt.
但是人们有一些关于上帝的问题
But people have kind of loaded questions about God.
例如 “为什么上帝容许好人遭遇不幸呢?”
So “why does God allow bad things to happen to good people?”,
或者“为什么上帝容许苦难呢?”
or “why does God allow suffering?”,
又或许是“为什么上帝需要如此多称颂呢?”
or “why does God need so much praise?”.
有这些问题的人可能口头上不会说
These are questions that people might not raise aloud
因为 你懂的
because, you know,
他们肯定不想告诉别人这些问题
they don’t want to share their doubts with others.
于是他们去谷歌
But they turn to Google,
搜索这些关于
and ask some really, really loaded questions
他们听说的有关宗教的故事
about some of the stories that they hear related to religion.
大想法网址 bigthink.com
bt bigthink.com

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视频概述

大数据时代,很多事情都可以通过大数据来进行预测。那么犯罪是不是也可以通过谷歌的大数据进行预测呢?

听录译者

红花老七

翻译译者

林邑

审核员

ZY

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKaPGiiShms

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