In 2011, about three weeks before a magnitude-7 earthquake hit Peru,
2011年 在秘鲁7级地震发生约三周前
mammals and birds reportedly started clearing out of a national park in the Andes.
报道显示 安第斯山脉的国家公园里 哺乳动物和鸟类开始不断逃离
You’ve probably heard stories like this before,
你之前很有可能听过这样的故事
about animals that seem to somehow sense an earthquake coming.
故事中 动物似乎以某种方式预感到了地震来临
Unfortunately, a 2018 review of more than 700 of these reports found that
但不幸的是 在2018年 对700多个此类报道的调查发现
most of them were just anecdotes or single observations;
这些故事大多只是传闻或者单次观察结果
they couldn’t really be backed up scientifically.
无法得到科学的证实
So recently, different groups of researchers have been trying
所以近期 不同的研究小组们正努力尝试
to get to the bottom of this claim for real.
找出事情的真相
They’ve been trying to figure out
研究者们试图弄清楚
if there really are changes in animal behavior before an earthquake
地震前动物的行为是否真的会发生变化
and what could possibly explain them.
以及导致这些变化的可能原因
Now, you might think, given the hundreds of times people have reported
你可能认为 既然人们上百次声称
that animals were behaving oddly before an earthquake,
动物在地震前表现异常
there must be something to it.
那么其中必有原因
But the problem is, humans are pattern-finding machines
但问题是 人类总倾向于寻找模式
and we’re also prone to a psychological phenomenon known as hindsight bias
并且容易形成“后视偏差”的心理现象
where we think things that happened make sense after they happened but not beforehand.
人们会在事后而非事前认为事情就该如此
We kind of can’t trust our memories.
我们的记忆是不太可靠的
So, instead of looking back after an earthquake happens
因而 与其在地震发生后
and trying to remember what animals were doing,
试图回想动物的行为
it’s better to track animal behavior over a long period of time.
不如对动物行为进行长期追踪
That way, when an earthquake happens,
这样的话 当有地震发生
we can use data to compare animal behavior before and after.
我们可以利用数据比较动物在地震发生前后的行为
And in a few cases, scientists have actually been able to do that.
在一些研究中 科学家们确实已经能这样做
For example, in 2014, researchers at a farm in Japan
例如 在2014年 研究者们在日本的农场
tracked the amount of milk a few dozen cows were making each day.
跟踪记录几十头奶牛每天的产奶量
which might sound like a weird metric,
这可能听起来是个奇怪的度量方式
but since most farm animals get milked at least once a day,
但因为农场上大多数农场动物每天至少被挤奶一次
it was an easy way to monitor their behavior.
这是个跟踪调查它们行为的简便方法
And the study found that, on average,
这项研究发现 平均来看
cows produced less milk in the three weeks before an earthquake.
地震发生前三周 奶牛的产奶量下降
Authors could not explain why that was happening,
研究者们无法解释这一现象
but it wasn’t the only study that measured a change
但这也不是唯一一个
in the behavior of farm animals before a quake.
测量地震前农场动物行为变化的研究
A couple years later, in Italy, researchers in a separate study
几年后 在意大利的另一项研究中
mounted accelerometers on a farm’s cows, sheep, and dogs
研究者在农场的奶牛 羊和狗身上安装了加速度计
to track their movements over a few months between 2016 and 2017.
追踪记录它们在2016至2017年几个月的行动
They basically put fitbits on them.
他们就是在动物身上安装了Fitbit
And the data showed that about five hours before a quake hit,
数据显示 地震来临前约5小时
the animals’ activity patterns did change significantly.
动物的行为模式的确发生了明显变化
Not only that, but the closer they were to the earthquake, the earlier their behavior changed
不仅如此 距离地震发生地越近 它们的行为变化就越早
possibly because whatever signals they were detecting were stronger.
可能因为它们探测到的某种信号要更强
The results were interesting for two reasons:
从两个方面看 这项研究发现很有意思
First, they suggested that it might be possible to set up
首先 它显示出这样一种可能
some kind of early warning system for earthquakes using—of all things—farm animals in different locations.
利用不同地方农场上的动物已建立某种地震预警系统
But second, they showed that it wasn’t enough just to track a single species—
其次 结果表明只追踪一种动物还不够
a good prediction required data from multiple animals
好的预测需要多种动物的数据
that captured how they interacted with each other.
这些数据能显示出动物行为间的联系
And soon, we’re actually going to have a lot more data like that.
不久后 我们会有更多类似的数据
At the beginning of 2020, scientists from Germany and Russia
2020年初 德国和俄罗斯的科学家们
launched a project called Icarus
开展了名为Icarus的项目
that tracks the movement of thousands of birds, mammals, and insects across the globe.
追踪全球数以千计的鸟类 哺乳动物和昆虫的行为
Rather than just looking at what one animal or a small group of animals is doing,
项目并非仅关注一只或一小群动物的行为
the idea behind Icarus is to use computer algorithms to analyze big patterns of movement.
而是旨在利用计算机算法分析总体行为模式
To do this, researchers plan to tag thousands of animals with small transmitters
因而 研究者们计划在数千只动物身上安装小型发射器
that regularly send information on their location, activity, and local weather conditions
发射器定期将它们的位置 活动和当地天气信息
to an antenna mounted on the International Space Station.
发送至安装于国际空间站的天线
It is an enormous project.
这是个巨型项目
And right now, it’s still in its test phase,
目前项目还在试验阶段
but the goal is that, by the end of 2020,
但目标是 到2020年结束前
researchers will be able to start gathering data and seeing how well it can be used
研究者们能开始收集数据并检验其使用效果
to predict earthquakes and other natural events, like volcanic eruptions.
即预测地震和诸如火山爆发等自然事件的效果
All these findings are pretty exciting,
所有这些研究发现都很让人兴奋
and recent advances in things like artificial intelligence and satellite technology
人工智能 卫星技术等科技的最新进展
have made these sorts of studies easier.
让进行这类研究变得更加容易
But despite all of the evidence that
尽管目前已有一些证据表明
at least some animals may be able to sense earthquakes well before they happen,
至少有些动物或许能预知地震发生
we still don’t know how they’ re doing it.
我们仍不清楚这些动物是如何做到的
Some scientists hypothesize that animals might be sensing vibrations in the Earth
一些科学家假设动物可能会通过地震前地壳的运动
from movements in the crust right before a quake,
感知到地球的震动
but there’s no strong evidence for that.
但目前没有强有力的证据证明这一点
However, it’s also possible that animals are picking up on other environmental events
不过 也有可能是动物感知到了
that are triggered by that movement in the crust.
由这种地壳运动引发的其他环境事件
For example, the air can become electrically charged
比如 空气会变得带电
as the squeezing and shifting of the Earth break chemical bonds in minerals,
因为地球的挤压和变化导致矿物质中的化学键断裂
releasing charged atoms into the air.
将带电原子释放到空气中
Some animals may be able to pick up on that change in the air itself.
有些动物或许能感知到这类空气本身的变化
Those charged atoms can also dissolve into water, turning the water acidic.
带电的原子也能溶于水 让水具酸性
And we know that, for instance, amphibians are super sensitive to changes in water chemistry
比如 我们知道两栖动物对水化学成分的变化极为敏感
because their skin is permeable,
因为它们的皮肤是透水的
which could explain why a whole bunch of toads fled their regular breeding pond
这或许能解释 为什么在2009年意大利拉奎拉发生地震5天前
five days before the 2009 earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy.
一群蟾蜍逃离了它们日常进行繁殖的池塘
Scientists who observed this behavior didn’t measure the water acidity,
观察到这一现象的科学家并未测量水体酸度
so we don’t know for sure.
所以我们也不是很确定
But at least it’s plausible.
但至少听起来有道理
And as we learn more about how animals behave around earthquakes
当我们对地震发生前后动物的行为
and how they might detect the early signals of them
以及它们如何可能探测到地震早期信号的了解越来越多
we may be able to better protect ourselves from the disasters they cause,
我们或许能更好保护自己 免受地震灾难的伤害
whether it’s by setting up a network of farm animals
不管是通过将农场动物的行为联系起来
or building sensors that mimic certain animals’ abilities,
还是开发能模仿特定动物本领的传感器
perhaps we can learn from them how to predict earthquakes on our own.
或许我们能向动物学习如何自己预测地震
To learn more about how scientists study earthquakes,
如果想更多了解科学家如何研究地震
you can watch our episode on earthquake science and the disaster that created it.
可以收看我们介绍地震科学及引发地震的灾害的视频
And, as always, thank you for watching SciShow!
跟往常一样 感谢你收看《科学秀》！