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企业家是太空飞行的未来

Burt Rutan: Entrepreneurs are the future of space flight

我想从这里开始,休斯顿,我们有个问题。
I want to start off by saying, Houston, we have a problem.
我们已经有二十年没有进展了
We’re entering a second generation of no progress
在人类太空飞行方面。事实上,我们退步了。
in terms of human flight in space. In fact, we’ve regressed.
我们非常有可能失去鼓励年轻人的能力,
We stand a very big chance of losing our ability to inspire our youth
让他们走出去,继续做这非常重要的事情
to go out and continue this very important thing
做我们人类已经做了的事情。
that we as a species have always done.
那就是,我们已经本能地走出去
And that is, instinctively we’ve gone out
翻过困难之地,去往更加困难的地方,
and climbed over difficult places, went to more hostile places,
之后发现,也许会令我们吃惊,这些就是我们生存下来的理由。
and found out later, maybe to our surprise, that that’s the reason we survived.
我强烈的感觉到
And I feel very strongly
这不太好,如果我们世代的后辈
that it’s not good enough for us to have generations of kids
只想着要一个更好
that think that it’s OK to look forward to a better version
带录像的手机。
of a cell phone with a video in it.
他们要渴望探索,他们要渴望征服,
They need to look forward to exploration; they need to look forward to colonization;
他们要渴望突破。他们需要这些。
they need to look forward to breakthroughs.
我们要鼓励他们,因为他们将来要领导我们
We need to inspire them, because they need to lead us
帮助我们生存。
and help us survive in the future.
我特别担心,美国国家宇航局现在根据新的布什政府的原则所做的
I’m particularly troubled that what NASA’s doing right now with this new Bush doctrine
–因为在未来十五年–哦 天呢,我错了。
to — for this next decade and a half — oh shoot, I screwed up.
在这里我们有非常明确的规定,不可以谈政治。
We have real specific instructions here not to talk about politics.
(笑)
(Laughter)
我们所期待的是–
What we’re looking forward to is —
(掌声)
(Applause)
我们所期待的
what we’re looking forward to
是不止鼓励我们的孩子
is not only the inspiration of our children,
但我们现行的政策甚至不允许
but the current plan right now is not really even allowing
这个国家最有创造力的–波音航空公司和洛克希德导弹与航天公司的
the most creative people in this country — the Boeing’s and Lockheed’s
航天工程师走出去,承担风险,尝试新装置。
space engineers — to go out and take risks and try new stuff.
我们将要回到月球–50年以后–
We’re going to go back to the moon … 50 years later?
我们正准备仔细地计划这件事情,学习任何新知识。
And we’re going to do it very specifically planned to not learn anything new.
我因此非常担心。但无论如何,那是–
I’m really troubled by that. But anyway that’s —
我今天想和你们分享的事情的基础,尽管如此
the basis of the thing that I want to share with you today, though,
就回到了我们要鼓励人们
is that right back to where we inspire people
鼓励日后会成为我们伟大领导的人们。
who will be our great leaders later.
那是我在这里接下来15分钟的主题。
That’s the theme of my next 15 minutes here.
我认为在你们小的时候就开始被鼓励:
And I think that the inspiration begins when you’re very young:
从三岁的婴儿直到12,14岁的小孩。
three-year-olds, up to 12-, 14-year-olds.
我们–最重要的事情是他们看到了什么。
What they look at is the most important thing.
让我们迅速回览一下航空工业。
Let’s take a snapshot at aviation.
曾有四年短暂的美好时期
And there was a wonderful little short four-year time period
那时发生了许多奇迹。
when marvelous things happened.
那段时期开始于1908年,当怀特兄弟在巴黎飞行,每个人都说,
It started in 1908, when the Wright brothers flew in Paris, and everybody said,
“哦,嘿!我能做这个。”只有极少的人曾飞过
“Ooh, hey, I can do that.” There’s only a few people that have flown
在1908年初。四年里,39个国家有了上百架飞机,
in early 1908. In four years, 39 countries had hundreds of airplanes,
上千名飞行员。飞机通过自然选择被发明了出来。
thousand of pilots. Airplanes were invented by natural selection.
现在你可以说聪明的设计设计了我们今天的飞机,
Now you can say that intelligent design designs our airplanes of today,
但没有聪明的设计真正设计了那些早期的飞机。
but there was no intelligent design really designing those early airplanes.
可能至少有3000种不同的尝试,
There were probably at least 30,000 different things tried,
如果飞行器坠毁,飞行员身亡,就不再尝试此种飞行器。
and when they crash and kill the pilot, don’t try that again.
能够飞行和着陆的就是好的,
The ones that flew and landed OK
因为没有训练有素的飞行员
because there were no trained pilots
没有真正有好的飞行素质之人。
who had good flying qualities by definition.
所以我们,通过做一大堆尝试,几千次的尝试,
So we, by making a whole bunch of attempts, thousands of attempts,
在那四年里,我们发明了
in that four-year time period, we invented the concepts
我们今天飞行所用的飞机。这就是为什么我们这么安全,
of the airplanes that we fly today. And that’s why they’re so safe,
因为我们给了自己很多机会去发现什么是好的。
as we gave it a lot of chance to find what’s good.
在宇宙飞行领域,我们没有给自己一点儿机会。
That has not happened at all in space flying.
只尝试了两个想法 — 美国尝试了两个,俄罗斯尝试了一个。
There’s only been two concepts tried — two by the U.S. and one by the Russians.
那么,在这段时期,谁被鼓舞了?
Well, who was inspired during that time period?
《航空周刊》让我列一个表,列出我认为
Aviation Week asked me to make a list of who I thought
这一百年的航空事业的推动者。
were the movers and shakers of the first 100 years of aviation.
我把他们写了出来,之后发现他们每一个人
And I wrote them down and I found out later that every one of them
在航天事业的奇妙复兴之时都是小孩子。
was a little kid in that wonderful renaissance of aviation.
那么,当我小的时候发生了什么– 也是非常重大的事件。
Well, what happened when I was a little kid was — some pretty heavy stuff too.
喷气式飞机时代开始了,导弹时代开始了。冯 布劳恩在那里
The jet age started: the missile age started. Von Braun was on there
展示如何登上火星 — 这些事早于人造地球卫星的制造。
showing how to go to Mars — and this was before Sputnik.
那时火星是一个非常令人感兴趣的地方
And this was at a time when Mars was a hell of a lot more interesting
比现在有趣得多。我们曾以为那里有动物存在,
than it is now. We thought there’d be animals there;
我们知道那里有植物,有色彩变幻,不是吗?
we knew there were plants there; the colors change, right?
但是,你知道,美国国家宇航局搞砸了这事情,因为他们派遣了这些机器人
But, you know, NASA screwed that up because they’ve sent these robots
而他们只着陆在了沙漠里。
and they’ve landed it only in the deserts.
(笑)
(Laughter)
如果你看一看发生了什么 — 这条小黑线和人们曾经飞行的速度一样快,
If you look at what happened — this little black line is as fast as man ever flew,
这条红线代表军队里速度最快的飞行员
and the red line is top-of-the-line military fighters
蓝色代表商业飞机运输。
and the blue line is commercial air transport.
你注意这里有一个大的跳跃。当我还是一个小孩时–
You notice here’s a big jump when I was a little kid —
我认为曾有些事给予我勇气
and I think that had something to do with giving me the courage
走出去,尝试其他人没勇气去做的事。
to go out and try something that other people weren’t having the courage to try.
那么,我小时候做了什么?
Well, what did I do when I was a kid?
我那时没有玩车,交女朋友,没有跳舞。
I didn’t do the hotrods and the girls and the dancing
并且,那时我也没有吸毒。我做了些比赛用的飞机模型。
and, well, we didn’t have drugs in those days. But I did competition model airplanes.
越战时,我花了七年时间
I spent about seven years during the Vietnam War
为空军做飞机飞行测试。
flight-testing airplanes for the Air Force.
后来,我涉猎飞机制造,并从中的到甚多乐趣
And then I went in and I had a lot of fun building airplanes
那些飞机是人们可以在自家车库里制造的。
that people could build in their garages.
这些里面有约有3000架正在飞行。当然,它们中的一架
And some 3,000 of those are flying. Of course, one of them
是可以环游世界的航行者号(Voyager)。我在1982年建立了另一家公司,
is around the world Voyager. I founded another company in ’82,
就是我现在的公司。
which is my company now.
从1982年起,我们公司每年研发不只一种飞机,
And we have developed more than one new type of airplane every year since 1982.
有许多飞机我无法在这张图上介绍给大家。
And there’s a lot of them that I actually can’t show you on this chart.
最令人印象深刻的飞机,我相信,是那架
The most impressive airplane ever, I believe, was designed
在第一架喷气式飞机制造出后,仅过了十二年就设计出的飞机。
only a dozen years after the first operational jet.
它一直在飞行,直到锈迹斑斑才不再服役。
Stayed in service till it was too rusty to fly, taken out of service.
我们1998年的研发水平倒退至1956年。什么?
We retreated in ’98 back to something that was developed in ’56. What?
史上最震撼人心的宇宙飞船,我相信,
The most impressive spaceship ever, I believe,
是格鲁曼公司(Grumman)所做的登月艇。它是一艘–你知道,它在月球着陆,
was a Grumman Lunar Lander. It was a — you know, it landed on the moon,
从月球起飞,无需人员维护–
take off of the moon, didn’t need any maintenance guys —
那有点儿酷。
that’s kind of cool.
我们已经丧失了能力。我们在1972年放弃了它。
We’ve lost that capability. We abandoned it in ’72.
这架飞船在前苏联宇航员加加林(Gagarin)1961年首次宇宙飞行的三年后被设计出来。
This thing was designed three years after Gagarin first flew in space in 1961.
三年,而我们现在做不到了。
Three years, and we can’t do that now. Crazy.
疯狂。简短地谈一下发明创造的周期,周期发展时
Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow,
会衍生许多活动,当这些活动被其他活动取代,此周期就灭亡了。
have a lot of activity; they die out when they’re replaced by something else.
这样的周期每25年出现一次。
These things tend to happen every 25 years.
持续40年的时间,有些周期相互交叠。你可以将此观点
40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement
放至不同的科技。这有趣的事情–
on all kinds of different technologies. The interesting thing —
顺便一提,这里的速度,不好意思,高速旅行
by the way, the speed here, excuse me, higher-speed travel
是这些发明创造周期的标题。这里没有一个。
is the title of these innovation cycles. There is none here.
这两架飞机与1958年制造的DC8速度相同。
These two new airplanes are the same speed as the DC8 that was done in 1958.
这是件大事,那就是,你没有发明创造周期
Here’s the biggie, and that is, you don’t have innovation cycles
如果政府研发并应用其研发成果。
if the government develops and the government uses it.
你知道,一个好的例子,当然就是DARPA网。
You know, a good example, of course, is the DARPA net.
电脑首先应用于炮兵部队,然后是美国国税局(IRS)。
Computers were used for artillery first, then IRS.
但当我们得到它时,现在你拥有所有活动的级别,
But when we got it, now you have all the level of activity,
所有由它而来的利益。私营部门不得不这么做。
all the benefit from it. Private sector has to do it.
记住它。我提出发明创新–
Keep that in mind. I put down innovation —
我期待看到宇宙空间的发明创新周期,但我什么也没发现。
I’ve looked for innovation cycles in space; I found none.
在最初的那一年,从加加林和
The very first year, starting when Gagarin went in space,
和几周后阿兰 谢巴德进入太空开始,世界上有五次人造
and a few weeks later Alan Shepherd, there were five manned
飞船航行;在最初的那一年。
space flights in the world — the very first year.
2003年,美国的送入太空的每个人都牺牲了。
In 2003, everyone that the United States sent to space was killed.
2003年只有三或四次飞行。
There were only three or four flights in 2003.
2004年,只有两次飞行:两次俄罗斯联盟号飞船飞行
In 2004, there were only two flights: two Russian Soyuz flights
至国际空间站。而我不得不在莫哈维沙漠起飞三次
to the international manned station. And I had to fly three in Mojave
和我的两队人马一起
with my little group of a couple dozen people
为了达到5次飞行的总数,
in order to get to a total of five,
这是1961年的数字。
which was the number the same year back in 1961.
没有进步。没有活动。什么也没有。
There is no growth. There’s no activity. There’s no nothing.
这张照片取自一号太空飞船。
This is a picture here taken from SpaceShipOne.
这张照片取自轨道。
This is a picture here taken from orbit.
我们的目标是拍下这些照片,这样大家就能看到它,真正地喜欢它。
Our goal is to make it so that you can see this picture and really enjoy that.
我们知道如何为亚轨道飞行拍照片,非常安全地做这件事–
We know how to do it for sub-orbital flying now, do it safe enough —
至少像早期的航线一样安全–所以可以做。
at least as safe as the early airlines — so that can be done.
我认为我想了点儿为什么我们有勇气
And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage
尝试飞到太空,我们是个小公司。
to go out and try that as a small company.
那么,首先,接下来会发生什么?
Well, first of all, what’s going to happen next?
第一产业将会数量巨大,参与者众多。
The first industry will be a high volume, a lot of players.
上周有另一个公司宣布它们可以。
There’s another one announced just last week.
这次飞行将会是亚轨道。亚轨道的原因
And it will be sub-orbital. And the reason it has to be sub-orbital
是,没有保证充分安全的方法
is, there is not solutions for adequate safety
可以带领大众飞至轨道。一些国家的政府正在这样做–
to fly the public to orbit. The governments have been doing this —
有三个政府已经这么做了45年,
three governments have been doing this for 45 years,
仍然有百分之四十的人命丧太空。
and still four percent of the people that have left the atmosphere have died.
那是–你不想经营一项有这种安全记录的事业。
That’s — You don’t want to run a business with that kind of a safety record.
它的量会变得很大;我们认为到2020年将会有100000人进行太空飞行。
It’ll be very high volume; we think 100,000 people will fly by 2020.
我不能告诉你太空旅行何时开始,
I can’t tell you when this will start,
因为我不想我的竞争者知道我的计划。
because I don’t want my competition to know my schedule.
但我认为一旦开始,我们将会找到解决方案。
But I think once it does, we will find solutions,
并且很快,你将在轨道上看到旅游旅店。
and very quickly, you’ll see those resort hotels in orbit.
去月球上绕一圈是非常容易做到的事情,
And that real easy thing to do, which is a swing around the moon
因为你能看到非常酷的景象。那确实会很酷。
so you have this cool view. And that will be really cool.
因为月球没有大气层环绕–
Because the moon doesn’t have an atmosphere —
如果你愿意,你可以绕误差在10英尺的椭圆形轨道飞行。
you can do an elliptical orbit and miss it by 10 feet if you want.
噢,那会非常有趣。
Oh, it’s going to be so much fun.
(笑)
(Laughter)
好。批评我的人说,“嘿,鲁坦,只是花着”
OK. My critics say, “Hey, Rutan’s just spending
这些亿万富翁的钱,为其创造游览飞行。
a lot of these billionaires’ money for joyrides for billionaires.
这是什么?这不是运输系统,它只是用于消遣。“
What’s this? This is not a transportation system; it’s just for fun.”
我过去常常因此而困扰,后来我开始思考。
And I used to be bothered by that, and then I got to thinking,
那么,等一下。我带来了我的第一台1978年的苹果电脑
well, wait a minute. I bought my first Apple computer in 1978
我把它带来因为我可以说,“我在家里有一台电脑,而你没有。
and I bought it because I could say, “I got a computer at my house and you don’t.
‘用它做什么?’过来。它能玩青蛙过街。”好吧。
‘What do you use it for?’ Come over. It does Frogger.” OK.
(笑)
(Laughter)
不是银行的电脑或洛克希德导弹与航天公司的电脑,
Not the bank’s computer or Lockheed’s computer,
家用电脑是用于游戏的。
but the home computer was for games.
对于整整一代来说,它是用于消遣–我们甚至不知道它是用于做什么的。
For a whole decade it was for fun — we didn’t even know what it was for.
但是发生了什么,我们有了这个巨大的产业,
But what happened, the fact that we had this big industry,
巨大的发展,巨大的进步和能力等等,
big development, big improvement and capability and so on,
他们被许多的家庭所知,我们的新发明变得成熟。
and they get out there in enough homes — we were ripe for a new invention.
而发明者就坐在观众席里。
And the inventor is in this audience.
阿尔 戈尔发明了互联网,因此,
Al Gore invented the Internet and because of that,
互联网–我们用了一整年–不好意思,
something that we used for a whole year — excuse me —
整整一代用其消遣,变成了每一件事情–我们的商业,我们的研究,
a whole decade for fun, became everything — our commerce, our research,
我们的交流而且,如果我们让谷歌的人
our communication and, if we let the Google guys
再想连个周末,我们能在此表上再加上许多条。
think for another couple weekends, we can add a dozen more things to the list. (Laughter)
要不了多久,孩子们就不会相信
And it won’t be very long before you won’t be able to convince kids
我们的家里电脑曾经并不普及。
that we didn’t always have computers in our homes.
所以乐趣是应该被保护的。
So fun is defendable.
好,我想展示给大家一张复杂的表,
OK, I want to show you kind of a busy chart,
里面是我对未来会发生什么的预言。
but in it is my prediction with what’s going to happen.
里面也提出了另一个观点,就在这。
And in it also brings up another point, right here.
有一群人已经前进–
There’s a group of people that have come forward —
你不认识他们所有人–但那些已经前进的人
and you don’t know all of them — but the ones that have come forward
像3至15岁的年轻孩子一样被我们鼓励
were inspired as young children, this little three- to 15-year-old age,
他们将飞向轨道,飞向月亮,
by us going to orbit and going to the moon here,
就在这个时期。
right in this time period.
保罗 艾伦,艾伦 莫斯克,理查德 布兰森,杰夫 贝佐斯,安萨里家族,
Paul Allen, Elan Musk, Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, the Ansari family,
他们现在资助俄罗斯的亚轨道航行,
which is now funding the Russians’ sub-orbital thing,
鲍勃 比洛奇,一个私人空间站,和卡马克。
Bob Bigelow, a private space station, and Carmack.
这些人把钱投入一个有趣的领域,
These people are taking money and putting it in an interesting area,
而我认为这笔把钱
and I think it’s a lot better than they put it in an area
花在买一个更好的手机或其他事情上要好得多–但他们把钱投入到非常[模糊的]
of a better cell phone or something — but they’re putting it in very —
区域,而这将会引导我们获得这种能力,
areas and this will lead us into this kind of capability,
这将会引导我们进入下一个真正大的事件
and it will lead us into the next really big thing
这会让我们探索。而我认为最终
and it will allow us to explore. And I think eventually
这会让我们能够得到地盘,使我们远离灭亡。
it will allow us to colonize and to keep us from going extinct.
他们被巨大的进程所鼓舞。但看看那之后的进程。
They were inspired by big progress. But look at the progress that’s going on after that.
这里有两个例子。
There were a couple of examples here.
军事战斗机有一架最高性能的空军飞机
The military fighters had a — highest-performance military airplane
是SR71.它走过了整个生命周期,直到锈迹斑斑才停滞飞行,
was the SR71. It went a whole life cycle, got too rusty to fly,
退出服役。协和式飞机使空军旅行速度翻倍。
and was taken out of service. The Concorde doubled the speed for airline travel.
它飞过了整个生命周期,没有遇到任何竞争;
It went a whole life cycle without competition,
然后停飞。而我们就此卡住
took out of service. And we’re stuck back here
拥有这样的军事战斗机
with the same kind of capability for military fighters
和商业航空旅行,我们回到了50年代末期。
and commercial airline travel that we had back in the late ’50s.
但现在出现了一些事情去鼓舞我们的孩子。
But something is out there to inspire our kids now.
我是说如果你现在有一个婴儿,
And I’m talking about if you’ve got a baby now,
或你有一个10岁的孩子。
or if you’ve got a 10-year-old now.
外面正在发生一些非常有趣的事情。
What’s out there is there’s something really interesting going to happen here.
不就,你就能买张票
Relatively soon, you’ll be able to buy a ticket
然后飞地比最高性能的军事作战飞机更高、更快。
and fly higher and faster than the highest-performance
这在之前从未发生过。
military operational airplane. It’s never happened before.
事实是它们拥有着这种性能的飞行器却止步不前,
The fact that they have stuck here with this kind of performance
那么,你知道,你在12分钟之内赢得了这场战争,
has been, well, you know, you win the war in 12 minutes;
为什么你需要更好的东西?
why do you need something better?
但我认为当你们开始卖票,开始
But I think when you guys start buying tickets and flying
亚轨道飞行,通往太空,很快–稍等,
sub-orbital flights to space, very soon — wait a minute,
这里发生了什么,我们将拥有军事战斗机
what’s happening here, we’ll have military fighters
这些战斗机拥有沿亚轨道飞行的能力,我认为这很快就会发生。
with sub-orbital capability, and I think very soon this.
但有趣的是,商业飞行器现具有这种能力。
But the interesting thing about it is the commercial guys are going to go first.
好,我期待一场新的资本主义太空竞赛,让我们呼唤它。
OK, I look forward to a new “capitalist’s space race,” let’s call it.
你们还记得60年代的太空竞赛是为了国家的声誉,
You remember the space race in the ’60s was for national prestige,
因为我们丢失了最初的两个里程碑。
because we lost the first two milestones.
我们不是因为技术而丢失了它们。事实是我们有硬件
We didn’t lose them technically. The fact that we had the hardware
当我们让冯 布劳恩飞行时,我们能够把一些东西送上轨道,
to put something in orbit when we let Von Braun fly it —
你可以认为那不是科技的失败。
you can argue that’s not a technical loss.
史波尼克人造卫星不是科技上的失败,但它有损声誉。
Sputnik wasn’t a technical loss, but it was a prestige loss.
美国–世界看到美国不是科技的主宰,
America — the world saw America as not being the leader in technology,
那时非常重要的事情。
and that was a very strong thing.
然后我们在加加林之后几周让艾伦 谢巴德太空飞行,
And then we flew Alan Shepherd weeks after Gagarin,
不是在几个月或几十年之后,或不管多长时间。所以,我们有能力。
not months or decades, or whatever. So we had the capability.
但美国失败了,我们失败了。因为那,我们向前跳跃一大步以弥补它。
But America lost. We lost. And because of that, we made a big jump to recover it.
那么,再次,有趣的是我们已经输给了
Well, again, what’s interesting here is we’ve lost
俄国在前两次里程碑前。
to the Russians on the first couple of milestones already.
在美国,你不能买一张票飞去太空–
You cannot buy a ticket commercially to fly into space in America —
不能这么做。你可以在俄国买到票。
can’t do it. You can buy it in Russia.
你乘坐俄国的飞行器飞行。这是可以的
You can fly with Russian hardware. This is available
因为苏联的太空计划缺乏资金。
because a Russian space program is starving,
一个座位可以得到两千万美金,对他们来说很不错。
and it’s nice for them to get 20 million here and there to take one of the seats.
它是商业的。它可被定义为空间旅行。他们也能提供
It’s commercial. It can be defined as space tourism. They are also offering a trip
绕月旅行,像阿波罗八号飞船所做的。
to go on this whip around the moon, like Apollo 8 was done.
一亿美金–嘿,我能去月球。
100 million bucks — hey, I can go to the moon.
但是,你知道,退回到60年代,你会想到这个吗,
But, you know, would you have thought back in the ’60s,
那时太空竞赛正在继续,
when the space race was going on,
第一个商业资本家似的事情,像是
that the first commercial capitalist-like thing to do
买张票就可以去月球,这会是苏联的硬件设施吗?
to buy a ticket to go to the moon would be in Russian hardware?
那时你会想到吗,苏联人会想到吗,
And would you have thought, would the Russians have thought,
当他们第一次乘坐他们开发的飞船去月球时,
that when they first go to the moon in their developed hardware,
里面的乘客不是俄国人?也许,会是日本的
the guys inside won’t be Russians? Maybe it’ll probably be a Japanese
或是美国的亿万富翁?好,有点儿奇怪,你知道,但确实如此。
or an American billionaire? Well, that’s weird: you know, it really is.
但无论如何,我想我们需要再次打击他们。
But anyway, I think we need to beat them again.
我认为我们要做的会让我们看到成功的,非常成功的
I think what we’ll do is we’ll see a successful, very successful,
私人太空飞船行业。无论我们是否是第一个真的并不重要。
private space flight industry. Whether we’re first or not really doesn’t matter.
苏联人实际上在飞协和式飞机前就飞过超音速飞机。
The Russians actually flew a supersonic transport before the Concorde.
他们飞过一些货物航班,然后退役。
And then they flew a few cargo flights, and took it out of service.
我想你们见到过相同的平行
I think you kind of see the same kind of parallel
当提供商业活动时。
when the commercial stuff is offered.
好,我们就谈论一点儿人类太空飞行的商业发展。
OK, we’ll talk just a little bit about commercial development for human space flight.
这张小投影片说飞了五次
This little thing says here: five times
这是美国国家宇航局到2020年做的。我想要告诉你,已经
what NASA’s doing by 2020. I want to tell you, already
有大约十点五亿至十点七亿
there’s about 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion
投资用于私人太空飞行,这些投资完全不是来自政府;
investment in private space flight that is not government at all —
而是来自全世界。如果你读到它–如果你搜索一下它,
already, worldwide. If you read — if you Google it,
你会发现一半的资金,但有两倍
you’ll find about half of that money, but there’s twice of that
正准备投入那里的资金–还没有花,但正准备投入
being committed out there — not spent yet, but being committed
计划到未来几年。嘿,那数目非常大。
and planned for the next few years. Hey, that’s pretty big.
我正在预测,尽管,这个工业的收益会很客观
I’m predicting, though, as profitable as this industry is going to be —
并且它确实是收益的,当你花200000美元让你的朋友乘飞船旅行时
and it certainly is profitable when you fly people at 200,000 dollars
事实上你可以只花费十分之一,
on something that you can actually operate at a tenth of that cost,
或更少–这收入会非常客观。
or less — this is going to be very profitable.
我还预测,会注入此项事业的投资
I predict, also, that the investment that will flow into this
将会有相当于美国税收的一半之多
will be somewhere around half of what the U.S. taxpayer
这些投资会用于美国国家宇航局的人造宇宙飞船工作。
spends for NASA’s manned spacecraft work.
注入此项事业的每一美元都会被更有效地利用
And every dollar that flows into that will be spent more efficiently
大约相差10到15。这意味着在我们之前就知道,
by a factor of 10 to 15. And what that means is before we know it,
人类太空飞行的进程,没有用纳税人的钱,
the progress in human space flight, with no taxpayer dollars,
将会比现在美国国家宇航局的预算多五倍
will be at a level of about five times as much
该预算用于人类太空飞行。
as the current NASA budgets for human space flight.
那是因为是我们。它是私人的行业。
And that is because it’s us. It’s private industry.
你从不应该依赖政府去做这种事业–
You should never depend on the government to do this sort of stuff —
而且我们已经从事了很长时间。美国航空资讯委员会,在美国国家宇航局之前,
and we’ve done it for a long time. The NACA, before NASA,
从未开发过客机,而且从未运营过航空线。
never developed an airliner and never ran an airline.
但美国国家宇航局正在开发太空货机,总是拥有
But NASA is developing the space liner, always has,
并且运营这唯一的太空航线,好吧。我们避开它
and runs the only space line, OK. And we’ve shied away from it
因为我们害怕它。但是从2004年六月开始,
because we’re afraid of it. But starting back in June of 2004,
当我展示在外太空的一个小组实际上能做到时,
when I showed that a little group out there actually can do it,
我们能够从它开始,从现在起改变每一件事情。
can get a start with it, everything changed after that time.
好吧,非常感谢大家。
OK, thank you very much.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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