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为什么未来将会是中世纪? – 译学馆
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为什么未来将会是中世纪?

Billionaire warlords: Why the future is medieval | #2 of Top 10 2019 | Big Think

SEAN MCFATE: The United States, especially,
肖恩·麦克法特:尤其是25年来
has been now accustomed, for 25 years, as being the universal and unitary superpower.
美国一直以超级大国的地位独领风骚
That’s not going to last forever.
但不会一直这样下去
I think most people know this,
我想大多数人都知道这一点
even though some may be in cognitive dissonance over this.
尽管有些人对此可能存在认知偏差
The truth is there are rising powers like Russia and China,
事实是 有像俄罗斯和中国这样的崛起大国
but there are other rising powers too.
其它国家也相继崛起
One of our problems is that
问题之一是
we live in a state-centric view of the universe.
我们的世界观是以国家为中心
International relations, for most of us, is run by states.
大多数人认为 国际关系是由国家来维护的
Nation states are the global, political unit of the international order.
单一民族的独立国家是国际秩序的全球性政治单位
And this is what we learn in social studies as kids.
这是我们孩提时代在社会研究中学到的
But that is actually not the way
但实际上 在人类历史的大部分时间
the world has worked for most of human history.
世界运作方式都不是这样的
States are actually about 300 or 400 years old.
国家实际上大约有300或400年的历史
Before there were states, there were empires, and there were tribes, and everything else.
国家之前的形态是帝国 部落等等
The reign of states and only states can wage war legitimately that is coming to a close.
而只有国家才能合法地发动短暂的战争
We’re actually going back to the status quo ante of
假如回到以前的状态 回到原状
when global order was a free-for-all of like the Middle Ages of antiquity, to what came before.
那时全球的秩序像中世纪一样自由
And one of the things of that free-for-all is that: Who else were superpowers?
全体自由有一个疑问:还有超级大国吗?
It wasn’t just states.
当然有了
So in the Middle Ages, the papacy was a superpower.
在中世纪 教皇政权是超国家政治实体
Rich aristocracies were superpowers.
富有的贵族拥有强权
Are we going back this world again?
难道我们又要重蹈这个时代的覆辙吗?
So you know we have random billionaires today who have as much power as states.
你知道今天的那些亿万富翁 他们的权力和国家一样大
There are 62 people in the planet who own the equivalent of half the world’s wealth.
地球上62个人拥有世界半数的财富
62 people.
62人
You can put them all onto a bus.
就好像他们都在一辆巴士上
You have multinational corporations.
此外还有跨国公司
We have the Fortune 500, which are more powerful than most of the states in the world.
比如《财富》500强 它们比世界上大多数国家都厉害
Of the 190, 194 states in the world, most are fragile or failed.
全球190个 194个国家中 大多数都是不堪一击的或失败的
We only think the top 25 states, like the US, Western Europe, Eastern Asia, et cetera.
我们只考虑前25强 像美国 西欧 东亚等等
But that’s an anomaly.
但巨头是少数
The vast majority of states in the world are more either regimes hiding inside states or just outright dumpster fires.
世界上绝大多数国家不是大国的附庸 就是彻头彻尾的失控
So what we’re going to see in the future is those who have wealth and political power,
所以我们要谈的是那些拥有财富和政治权力者
who can also hire their own private armies now, become super powers.
他们可以雇佣私人军队 成为超级强权
The world used to wage a lot of private war in military history.
世界军事史上有过大量的私斗
In fact, most of military history is privatized.
事实上 大部分军队都是私有化的
Mercenaries have always been a major component of war.
雇佣兵一直是战争的主力军
And what happens when you privatize war is
而当你将战争私有化时
that now military strategies blend with business ones.
会发现现代军事战略与商业战略是密不可分的
And this puts us at risk
这让我们处于危险之中
because our four stars who are in charge of our military
因为大校们掌管着军队
and our policymakers are not prepared for that type of warfare.
而且政策制定者并没有为此类战争做好准备
So mercenaries were around for millennia.
这就是雇佣军存在几千年的理由
Mercenaries have been around since forever.
雇佣兵很早就存在了
And it’s anomalous in history that 150 years ago they sort of went away.
150年前他们消失了 这在历史上是不正常的
And why that is is still a mystery.
其消失原因仍然是个谜
People say, well, after the 30 Years War, or after the Peace of Westphalia of 1648,
人们说 三十年战争——1648威斯特伐利亚和约时期
where mercenaries ran amok, both rulers and ruled were tired of them,
当时雇佣军横行 统治者和被统治者都厌倦了他们
and rulers and kings started to invest in their own standing armies, which is very expensive.
统治者和国王开始投资自己的常备军 这是非常昂贵的
I mean, mercenaries are cheaper than standing armies,
我是说 雇佣军比常备军便宜
just like it’s cheaper to rent than to own.
就像租比买便宜一样
And countries started to invest in large national militaries.
许多国家从此开始投入大型国家军队
There are reasons for that, some of it was technological, some of it was political,
雇佣兵的存在是有因可寻的 或是技术原因 或是政治原因
but they monopolized the market for force.
但他们垄断了武力市场
Over the next several hundred years, they pushed out mercenaries.
所以在接下来的几百年里 统治者驱赶雇佣兵
They went underground by 1850.
1850年雇佣兵就转入地下了
And we saw them pop up around the 1950s and ’60s in Africa during wars of decolonization,
而在上世纪五六十年代非洲非殖民化战争期间 雇佣兵又突然出现
but they were always in the shadows.
但他们总是在暗处
Now they’re returning, and they’re up front,
不过现在雇佣兵回来了 且势头益旺
whether it’s Blackwater for the United States of America or the Wagner Group for Russia,
不管是美国的黑水公司 还是俄罗斯的瓦格纳集团
which is a powerful mercenary corporation,
或者90年代南非的EO公司
or Executive Outcomes in South Africa in the 1990s.
都属于强大的雇佣兵公司
We’re seeing mercenaries come out of the shadows.
我们看到雇佣兵渐渐走向明处
And what can put them back in the shadows?
怎样遏制他们的发展呢?
Well, only one thing could do it.
方法只有一个
If all the nations of the world got together and banded together as they did the 1600s,
就是世界各国像十七八世纪那样联合起来
1700s, and said, no more mercenaries,
强烈抵制雇佣军
which I think world peace is easier.
我认为这样才易于世界和平
So I don’t think that’s going to happen.
但我认为这不会发生
Some people put their faith in international public law.
正如有些人相信国际公法
The United Nations, the laws of war.
联合国 战争法则能带来和平
I am not one of them.
我不信
As much as I would love to see that happen,
尽管我很乐意看到这种情况发生
the truth is that international law around war is already very feeble.
但事实是 针对战争的国际法已经非常无力
And let’s not forget that mercenaries can shoot your law enforcement.
还有别忘了 雇佣兵可以射杀你的执法人员
They can shoot them dead.
他们可以开枪打死别人
Force is the only commodity that you cannot regulate,
武力是你唯一不能调节的商品
because it can resist law enforcement.
因为它可以抵抗执法
And this is what makes it so dangerous.
这就是它如此危险的原因
And by the way, who’s going to go into Syria and arrest all those mercenaries now?
还有 现在谁去叙利亚逮捕那些雇佣兵?
Is it going to be the United Nations, the US Marines?
联合国吗 美国海军陆战队吗?
I don’t think so.
我不认为如此
So I don’t think law is the answer.
我不觉得法律是答案
I think the most we can do is we can shape the market
我认为我们能做的最多就是塑造市场
to incentivize good behavior and blackball bad behavior.
激励好的行为和抑制不好的行为
But the market for force, which has been with us through all of human history,
但是武力市场伴随着我们走过了整个人类史
had a brief hiatus, but it’s returning now,
虽然曾经有过短暂的中断 但是现在又回来了
and we’re not prepared for it.
而我们还没有做好准备
It is one of the biggest security threats of the 21st century,
这是21世纪最大的安全威胁之一
yet we’re still focused on ISIS.
但我们仍然更关注ISIS
In some ways, CEOs and Wall Street have more to say about strategy
在某种程度上 就未来私人战争的战略而言
in a future of private warfare than does the Pentagon.
首席执行官和华尔街比五角大楼更有发言权
And we’re not prepared for this.
而我们对此毫无准备
So for example, one of the things you’ve got to think about private warfare
你必须把私人战争看作
as a market for force, with supply and demand.
一个有供求关系的武力市场
Demand are clients, supply are mercenaries.
需求是客户 供给是雇佣兵
Mercenaries don’t want to work themselves out of business.
雇佣兵不想让自己失业
They want to start and elongate wars for profit.
他们想发动和拉长战争以获取利润
When they’re out of work, they become bandits,
当他们失业的时候 他们就会变成强盗
creating artificial demand for the services.
人为性地创造服务需求
One of the things they do a lot, in the Middle Ages, for example, when mercenaries were rampant,
中世纪雇佣兵猖獗的时候
is they would get involved in racketeering and extortion.
他们经常去敲诈勒索
For example, a small private army of mercenaries,
一支由雇佣兵组成的小型私人军队
say 5,000 mercenaries, shows up to the city of Siena in Italy.
比如说5000名雇佣兵 出现在意大利锡耶纳市
And they’d say, we want 5,000 pounds of whatever.
他们会说 我们要5000磅之类的
We want 5,000 pieces of gold.
我们要5000块金币
I’m sort of making that up.
他们会这样说
And then the people of Siena would, you know, run around and say,
然后锡耶纳的人会边逃窜边说
OK, well, we’ll give you all our gold
好吧好吧 金子都给你
just so you don’t sack us and take our women and children and kill us all.
只求你放过我们 别带走女人和孩子 别杀我们
And the mercenaries would say, thank you, we’ll be back next year.
雇佣兵会说 谢谢您了 我们明年再来
Right?
对吗?
And so a world awash in mercenaries is a world with more war.
因此一个遍布雇佣兵的世界势必战乱频繁
And the resurrection of private force is symbolic and emblematic of durable disorder
私人武力的复活是持久混乱的象征
because they’ll keep persistent conflict going.
因为冲突会一直持续下去
They’ll contribute to entropy.
雇佣兵会对熵做出贡献
And let’s not also forget that there are clients who do this, as well.
别忘了现在也有制造混乱的雇员
So now you have random billionaires, multinational corporations,
现在随机出现了亿万富翁跨国公司
the extractive industry will start to use private forces to secure their people, their assets,
采掘工业将开始使用私人力量来保护他们的人民 资产
whatever they want to do,
做一切想做的事情
or they can wage war for whatever reason they want, no matter how petty.
或者他们会以任何微不足道的借口发动战争
No matter how petty.
他们才不管公序良俗
And having mercenaries available in the world meeting with money lowers the barriers to conflict.
在世界范围内 将雇佣兵和金钱绑在一起容易引发冲突
It makes going to war easier, and it makes stopping war harder.
这使战乱易起 阻止战争也变得更难

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视频概述

中世纪没有强有力的政权,自由而混乱。当今时代崛起的大国各领风骚,未来会是黑暗的中世纪吗?

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