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如何修复破碎的国家

Ashraf Ghani: How to fix broken states

“共和”概念,正如美国哲学家杜威很久之前所观察到的,
A public, Dewey long ago observed,
通过辩论和讨论而成。
is constituted through discussion and debate.
如果我们质疑暴政的假想,
If we are to call the tyranny of assumptions into question,
避免不经推敲的教条,
and avoid doxa, the realm of the unquestioned,
那么我们必须愿意把自己的假想
then we must be willing to subject our own assumptions
进行讨论辨伪。
to debate and discussion.
正是秉着这种精神我才来此参与讨论
It is in this spirit that I join into a discussion
这个我们时代的关键议题,
of one of the critical issues of our time,
即如何调动各式各样的资本
namely, how to mobilize different forms of capital
为国家重建服务。
for the project of state building.
首先明晰我们的假设,
To put the assumptions very clearly:
资本主义经过150年的发展已被广为接受,
capitalism, after 150 years, has become acceptable,
民主亦然。
and so has democracy.
如果我们回看1945年的世界,
If we looked in the world of 1945
并且查看当时资本主义经济体系及民主政治版图,
and looked at the map of capitalist economies and democratic polities,
它们只是少数,并非主流。
they were the rare exception, not the norm.
然而目前的问题是,
The question now, however,
选择何种资本主义体制
is both about which form of capitalism
及何种民主参与机制。
and which type of democratic participation.
但我们必须承认
But we must acknowledge
此刻要唤起
that this moment has brought about
宝贵的共识达成一致。
a rare consensus of assumptions.
及提供基础
And that provides the ground
以促成一种行动,
for a type of action,
因为每个时刻的共识
because consensus of each moment
能让我们共同行动。
allows us to act.
而且这是必须的,不管
And it is necessary, no matter how fragile
我们的共识如何脆弱或短暂,
or how provisional our consensus,
共识能让我们前进。
to be able to move forward.
但是世界大部分地区
But the majority of the world
既没有从资本主义体系获利
neither benefits from capitalism
也没有从民主体系里获利。
nor from democratic systems.
全球大部分国家的经历
Most of the globe
都是认为美国是压抑性的
experiences the state as repressive,
作为一种
as an organization that is concerned
关注拒绝权利
about denial of rights,
否认正义的组织,
about denial of justice,
而不是提供权利和正义的机构。
rather than provision of it.
从资本主义发展历程来看,
And in terms of experience of capitalism,
其全球经验
there are two aspects
主要有两方面,
that the rest of the globe experiences.
首先是资源采掘
First, extractive industry.
血钻,宝石走私,
Blood diamonds, smuggled emeralds,
木材,
timber,
从穷国掠夺财富。
that is cut right from under the poorest.
其次是技术援助。
Second is technical assistance.
技术援助和你想的不一样,
And technical assistance might shock you,
但它是当今最差劲的形式,
but it’s the worst form
它表现出了发达国家对发展中国家
of — today — of the ugly face
丑陋的面孔。
of the developed world to the developing countries.
想象一下上百亿美元
Tens of billions of dollars
被一些人投入能力建设
are supposedly spent on building capacity
他们每天最高得到1500美元,
with people who are paid up to 1,500 dollars a day,
却不能
who are incapable
创造性地
of thinking creatively,
独立地思考。
or organically.
其次,当然我对
Next assumption —
6月7日的事件
and of course the events of July 7,
深表同情,还有911,
I express my deep sympathy, and before that, September 11 —
这些都提醒我们
have reminded us
我们不是生活在三个不同的世界,
we do not live in three different worlds.
而是一个。
We live in one world.
简单点儿说
But that’s easily said.
我们并不是在和
But we are not dealing with the implications
我们所生活的世界的含义打交道。
of the one world that we are living in.
也就是说,如果我们想要拥有一个世界,
And that is that if we want to have one world,
这个世界是不能建立在
this one world cannot be based
先有巨大的排斥,
on huge pockets of exclusion,
然后再对其中一些进行包容之上的。
and then inclusion for some.
我们现在终于必须来思考一下
We must now finally come
一个真正的全球型世界
to think about the premises
的前提是什么,
of a truly global world,
与权力政权和
in relationship to the regime of rights
责任感和可靠性之间的关系
and responsibilities and accountabilities
在全球维度内是怎样的。
that are truly global in scope.
否则我们将会
Otherwise we will be missing
丢失这个历史上的开放时刻,
this open moment in history,
一个我们在政治
where we have a consensus
和经济的形式
on both the form of politics
达成共识的时刻。
and the form of economics.
这三个组织中该选哪一个呢?
What is one of these organizations to pick?
我们有3个很关键的术语:
We have three critical terms:
经济,
economy,
公民社会
civil society
和国家。
and the state.
我并不涉及前两个,只能说
I will not deal with those first two, except to say
不加批判的对假设的转移
that uncritical transfer of assumptions,
从一个语境到另一个语境之下,
from one context to another,
只可能酿成灾难。
can only make for disaster.
经济学,
Economics
在最多的精英大学里都有课程
taught in most of the elite universities
但这在我的语境中可以说是完全没有用的。
are practically useless in my context.
我的国家
My country is dominated
被毒品经济和黑手党所操控
by drug economy and a mafia.
书本上的经济学并不能
Textbook economics does not work in my context,
在我的语境中发挥作用,
and I have very few recommendations from anybody
而且我几乎得不到任何建议。
as to how to put together a legal economy.
我们知识的贫穷
The poverty of our knowledge
必将成为前进的
must become the first basis
第一块基石。
of moving forward,
而不是作用于数学模型基础上的
and not imposition of the framework
框架,
that works on the basis of mathematical modeling,
当然,我对此还是深怀敬意的。
for which I have enormous respect.
我的在约翰霍普金斯的同事是最好的。
My colleagues at Johns Hopkins were among the best.
第二,
Second,
不要再无止境地去辩论
instead of debating endlessly
一个国家的结构是什么样的,
about what is the structure of the state,
我们为什么不能将其简化,
why don’t we simplify
而去讨论一个国家21世纪
and say, what are a series of functions
必须具备的一系列功能是什么?
that the state in the 21st century must perform?
克莱尔 洛克哈特和我正在就此写一本书
Clare Lockhart and I are writing a book on this;
我们希望能彼此之间能够有更多的沟通与分享。
we hope to share that much widely with —
第三,我们实际上可以建立一个指数,
and third is that we could actually construct an index
来测量
to measure comparatively
相比较之下,这些功能发挥得怎么样,是否令我们满意,
how well these functions that we would agree on
并且能推广到其他的地方。
are being performed in different places.
那么这些功能是什么呢?
So what are these functions?
我们来举10个例子。
We propose 10.
它们是:对暴力途径的合法化的垄断,
And it’s legitimate monopoly of means of violence,
行政控制,公共财政管理
administrative control, management of public finances,
人力资金投资,民权保障
investment in human capital, provision of citizenship rights,
基础设施建设,
provision of infrastructure,
通过调控进行对国家有形与无形资产管理,
management of the tangible and intangible assets of the state
市场的创造,
through regulation, creation of the market,
国际合约 — 包括公共借贷 —
international agreements, including public borrowing,
还有最重要的是,法律规范。
and then, most importantly, rule of law.
我不会进一步阐述。
I won’t elaborate.
我希望这些问题可以给予我一个机会。
I hope the questions will give me an opportunity.
这是一个切实的目标,
This is a feasible goal,
因为与广泛的假设相反
basically because, contrary to widespread assumption,
我不认为我们知道该如何处理这件事。
I would argue that we know how to do this.
谁能想到德国
Who would have imagined that Germany
今天会变成联合或者民主的,
would be either united or democratic today,
如果你从1943年的牛津的视角去看这个问题的话。
if you looked at it from the perspective of Oxford of 1943?
但是牛津的人民为一个民主德国做好了准备,
But people at Oxford prepared for a democratic Germany
并积极计划着。
and engaged in planning.
还有很多其他的例子。
And there are lots of other examples.
现在,为了做这件事,
Now in order to do this — and this brings this group —
我们必须重新思考资本的定义。
we have to rethink the notion of capital.
最微不足道的一种资本形式是,
The least important form of capital, in this project,
是财经资本 — 金钱。
is financial capital — money.
金钱在众多发展中国家中不都不能算作是资本。
Money is not capital in most of the developing countries.
它只是现金。
It’s just cash.
因为它缺乏机制的,
Because it lacks the institutional,
组织的,管理的形式,
organizational, managerial forms
来将它转变为资本。
to turn it into capital.
而且它所需要的是
And what is required
物理资本
is a combination of physical capital,
与体制资本,人力资本的结合。
institutional capital, human capital —
当然,安全性是至关重要的,
and security, of course, is critical,
信息也是。
but so is information.
现在,我们应该担忧的问题,
Now, the issue that should concern us here —
同时也是我希望给您们这群人
and that’s the challenge
带来的挑战是
that I would like to pose to this group —
你们国家需要16年
is again, it takes 16 years
来培养一个
in your countries
有学士学历的人。
to produce somebody with a B.S. degree.
20年来培养一个
It takes 20 years
有博士学位的人
to produce somebody with a Ph.D.
第一个挑战是要
The first challenge is to rethink,
从基本上进行重新思考
fundamentally,
当代的问题。
the issue of the time.
我们需要重复
Do we need to repeat
我们所继承的方式吗?
the modalities that we have inherited?
我们的教育系统是自19世纪传承而来的。
Our educational systems are inherited from the 19th century.
为了从根本上重新投入到一个项目中,
What is it that we need to do fundamentally
什么是我们需要的呢,
to re-engage in a project,
在这个资本形成如此之快的当下?
that capital formation is rapid?
世界上的绝大多数人
The absolute majority of the world’s population
都在20岁以下,而且他们正在变得
are below 20,
更多,成长得更快。
and they are growing larger and faster.
他们需要不同的方式
They need different ways
不同的对待的方式。
of being approached,
不同的享有权利的方式。
different ways of being enfranchised,
不同的被训练的方式。
different ways of being skilled.
这是首要的。
And that’s the first thing.
第二,你们是问题的解决者,
Second is, you’re problem solvers,
但是你们没有尽到你们的全球性责任。
but you’re not engaging your global responsibility.
你们已经远离了
You’ve stayed away
腐败问题。
from the problems of corruption.
你们只想看到干净的环境。
You only want clean environments in which to function.
但是你们没有彻底看透腐败的问题,
But if you don’t think through the problems of corruption,
谁还能呢?
who will?
你们避免为发展做规划。
You stay away from design for development.
你们是伟大的设计师,
You’re great designers,
但是你们的设计是自私的。
but your designs are selfish.
只是为了你们自己即时的用处。
It’s for your own immediate use.
在我的世界,我与
The world in which I operate
那些道路、
operates with designs
堤坝、或者电力供应
regarding roads, or dams,
的设计打交道,
or provision of electricity
这些设计已经有60年没有被重温了。
that have not been revisited in 60 years.
这是不正确。需要我们来思考一下。
This is not right. It requires thinking.
更重要的是,
But, particularly, what we need
我们最需要的
more than anything else from this group
是你们的想象力,
is your imagination
用想象力来解决问题
to be brought to bear on problems
这是米姆本应产生作用的方式。
the way a meme is supposed to work.
而就范式的作用来说,在很久以前,
As the work on paradigms, long time ago showed —
托马斯-坤的工作,
Thomas Kuhn’s work —
他的工作是
it’s in the intersection of ideas
概念的内部分工中,
that new developments —
新的发展出现。
true breakthroughs — occur.
我希望这个组织,通过这些方式
And I hope that this group
可以有能力处理关于政府和国家的问题
would be able to deal with the issue of state and development
以及给予这个世界占大多数的穷人
and the empowerment of the majority of the world’s poor,
以权力。
through this means.
谢谢。
Thank you.
(鼓掌)
(Applause)
克里斯 安德森:“那么,Ashraf先生,直到最近,
Chris Anderson: So, Ashraf, until recently,
你一直是阿富汗的财政部长,
you were the finance minister of Afghanistan,
这是一个处在世界事务
a country right at the middle
中心的国家。
of much of the world’s agenda.
这个国家真的能够完成(你所说的那些)吗?
Is the country gonna make it?
民主可否繁荣?什么使你最为生畏?
Will democracy flourish? What scares you most?
Ashraf Ghani:“最令我害怕的,是你们,
Ashraf Ghani: What scares me most is — is you,
是缺乏你们的积极参与。”
lack of your engagement.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
你问了我。你知道我总是给出一些非传统的答案。
You asked me. You know I always give the unconventional answer.
不。但是说真的,
No. But seriously,
阿富汗的问题
the issue of Afghanistan
必须首先被视作
first has to be seen as,
一个至少10到20年的视角。
at least, a 10- to 20-year perspective.
今天,全球化
Today the world of globalization
在加速。
is on speed.
时间已经被压缩了。
Time has been compressed.
空间对于大多数人来说也已不再存在。
And space does not exist for most people.
但是在我的世界里,
But in my world —
你要知道,当我23年之后回到阿富汗的时候,
you know, when I went back to Afghanistan after 23 years,
空间已经扩大了。
space had expanded.
所有可感知的社会基础设施被毁坏了。
Every conceivable form of infrastructure had broken down.
我旅行着,
I rode — traveled —
原本需要花3个小时往返的城市
travel between two cities that used to take three hours
现在需要12个小时。
now took 12.
所以,首先,当度量标准变了,
So the first is when the scale is that,
我们必须要认识到
we need to recognize
基础设施就是这么简单的一些东西,
that just the simple things that are infrastructure —
而要传递基础设施需要6年的时间。
it takes six years to deliver infrastructure.
在我们的世界,
In our world.
所有像这样有意义的东西。
Any meaningful sort of thing.
但是注意力的情态
But the modality of attention,
或者说今天发生了什么,明天将发生什么。
or what is happening today, what’s happening tomorrow.
第二,
Second is,
当一个国家
when a country has been subjected
已经从属于最广泛、残忍的权力施行形式之一的时候,
to one of the most immense, brutal forms of exercise of power —
我们连续10年,
we had the Red Army
拥有红军,
for 10 continuous years,
110,000个强壮的人
110,000 strong,
真的很吓人
literally terrorizing.
天空:
The sky:
每一个阿富汗人
every Afghan
将天空视为恐惧的来源。
sees the sky as a source of fear.
我们几乎已经快被轰炸
We were bombed
给灭绝了。
practically out of existence.
然后,成千上万的人被训练程恐怖分子,
Then, tens of thousands of people were trained in terrorism —
什么方面的都有。
from all sides.
美国,英国加入了
The United States, Great Britain, joined for instance,
诸如埃及情报服务的组织
Egyptian intelligence service
来训练成千上万的人
to train thousands of people
来抵御和城市恐怖主义。
in resistance and urban terrorism.
如何把一辆自行车
How to turn a bicycle
变成一种恐怖行动的工具。
into an instrument of terror.
如何将一头驴子,一辆马车,任何东西,(变成恐怖行动的工具)。
How to turn a donkey, a carthorse, anything.
俄罗斯人也是一样。
And the Russians, equally.
所以,当暴力在一个国家,
So, when violence erupts
比如阿富汗,
in a country like Afghanistan,
是因为有那样一种传统。
it’s because of that legacy.
但是我们必须明白
But we have to understand
我们已经非常幸运了。
that we’ve been incredibly lucky.
我的意思是,我真的无法相信我有多么幸运能来到这里,
I mean, I really can’t believe how lucky I am here,
站在你们面前讲话。
standing in front of you, speaking.
当我成为财政部长的时候,
When I joined as finance minister,
我以为我能活过3年的概率
I thought that the chances of my living more than three years
不超过5%。
would not be more than five percent.
危险是存在的,但是也是值得的。
Those were the risks. They were worth it.
我认为我可以做到,
I think we can make it,
而且我如此认为的原因,
and the reason we can make it
就在于人民。
is because of the people.
你知道,因为,我给你们一个数据好了。
You see, because, I mean — I give you one statistic.
在阿富汗91%的男人,
91 percent of the men in Afghanistan,
86%的女人,
86 percent of the women,
每天都会听至少3个收音频道来
listen to at least three radio stations a day.
讲述这个世界的
In terms of their discourse,
复杂性。
in terms of their sophistication of knowledge of the world,
我敢说,
I think that I would dare say,
他们
they’re much more sophisticated
比美国的拥有大学文凭的人,
than rural Americans with college degrees
和大把的欧洲人都要深刻。
and the bulk of Europeans —
因为这些跟他们息息相关。
because the world matters to them.
而他们的最主要的担忧是什么呢?
And what is their predominant concern?
遗弃。
Abandonment.
阿富汗人已经深深地成为了国际主义者了。
Afghans have become deeply internationalist.
你知道,当我在2001年12月份回国的时候,
You know, when I went back in December of 2001,
我一点都不想与阿富汗政府合作。
I had absolutely no desire to work with the Afghan government
因为我是一个国家主义者。
because I’d lived as a nationalist.
我告诉他们 – 我的人民,和美国人在这 –
And I told them — my people, with the Americans here —
是分开的
separate.
是的,我在联合国有着顾问的职位。
Yes, I have an advisory position with the U.N.
我快速地穿越了10个阿富汗的省份。
I went through 10 Afghan provinces very rapidly.
每个人都告诉我,这是一个不同的世界。
And everybody was telling me it was a different world.
你知道,他们参与进来了。
You know, they engage.
他们看见了国际的介入,
They see engagement, global engagement,
这对于这些普通人的未来是至关重要的。
as absolutely necessary to the future of the ordinary people.
而普通的阿富汗人最为关心的是
And the thing that the ordinary Afghan is most concerned with is —
克莱尔 洛克哈特在这里,
Clare Lockhart is here,
所以我讲讲述一段她
so I’ll recite a discussion she had
与一个阿富汗北部的未接受过教育的妇女的讨论。
with an illiterate woman in Northern Afghanistan.
那个妇女说她不关心
And that woman said she didn’t care
她的饭桌上是否有食物。
whether she had food on her table.
她关心的是未来是否有计划,
What she worried about was whether there was a plan for the future,
她的孩子们能否有个不一样的人生。
where her children could really have a different life.
这给予了我希望。
That gives me hope.
CA:阿富汗
CA: How is Afghanistan
怎么能为那么多以毒品交易为生的人
going to provide alternative income
提供
to the many people
收入呢?
who are making their living off the drugs trade?
AG:当然了。首先,
AG: Certainly. Well, the first is,
不要再花费几十亿美元
instead of sending a billion dollars
在毒品根除上了,
on drug eradication
取而代之的是,把资金给几个安全公司,
and paying it to a couple of security companies,
他们将上千亿美元的资金
they should give this hundred billion dollars
分给50个
to 50
全球最具开创性的公司,
of the most critically innovative companies in the world
让他们创造一百万个工作。
to ask them to create one million jobs.
根除毒品的关键在于工作。
The key to the drug eradication is jobs.
看,这有个鲜为人知的事实:
Look, there’s a very little known fact:
人均合法的年收入在1000美元以上的国家
countries that have a legal average income per capita of 1,000 dollars
不生产毒品。
don’t produce drugs.
第二,纺织品。
Second, textile.
贸易是关键,而不是援助。
Trade is the key, not aid.
美国和欧洲应该
The U.S. and Europe
给我们零关税。
should give us a zero percent tariff.
纺织品行业极具移动性。
The textile industry is incredibly mobile.
如果你想让我们有能力与中国竞争并吸引投资,
If you want us to be able to compete with China and to attract investment,
我们可能可以很轻松地
we could probably attract
凭借纺织品行业
four to six billion dollars
吸引60亿美元,
quite easily in the textile sector,
如果零关税的话,
if there was zero tariffs —
这也可以创造很多工作岗位。
would create the type of job.
棉花不能与鸦片相比,
Cotton does not compete with opium;
但是T恤可以。
a t-shirt does.
而且我们需要知道,这是一个价值链。
And we need to understand, it’s the value chain.
看,一个普通的阿富汗已经
Look, the ordinary Afghan is sick and tired
对微贷款很厌烦了。
of hearing about microcredit.
这很重要,
It is important,
对于那些从事微生产的人
but what the ordinary women and men who engage in micro-production want
最需要的的国际的切入口。
is global access.
他们不想要卖给仅针对外国人
They don’t want to sell to the charity bazaars
的慈善义卖会,
that are only for foreigners —
而且要把同样的衬衫
and the same bloody shirt
一遍又一遍的绣。
embroidered time and again.
我们需要
What we want is a partnership
与意大利的设计公司合作。
with the Italian design firms.
是的,我们有全世界最好的缝纫师!
Yeah, we have the best embroiderers in the world!
为什么我们不能做与意大利北部做的东西一样的呢?
Why can’t we do what was done with northern Italy?
凭着发行系统?
With the Put Out system?
所以我认为,经济上,
So I think economically,
关键问题在于如何思考。
the critical issue really is to now think through.
我在这里要说援助没有用。
And what I will say here is that aid doesn’t work.
你知道,援助系统坏了。
You know, the aid system is broken.
它不具备只是
The aid system does not have the knowledge,
远见,和能力。
the vision, the ability.
我是全力支持慈善的;毕竟我提倡了很多。
I’m all for it; after all, I raised a lot of it.
是的,准确的说,我试图
Yeah, to be exact, you know,
劝说这个世界来
I managed to persuade the world that
给我的国家275亿。
they had to give my country 27.5 billion.
他们不想给我们金钱。
They didn’t want to give us the money.
CA:还是不起作用吗?
CA: And it still didn’t work?
AG:不。不是不起作用。
AG: No. It’s not that it didn’t work.
只是,一美元的私人投资,
It’s that a dollar of private investment,
在我看来,
in my judgment,
等于至少20美元的援助,
is equal at least to 20 dollars of aid,
就它产生的动力来看。
in terms of the dynamic that it generates.
第二,1美元的援助可能变成10美分
Second is that one dollar of aid could be 10 cents;
或者20美分,
it could be 20 cents;
或者变成4美元,
or it could be four dollars.
这取决于它以什么形式来的,
It depends on what form it comes,
它附带的条件的级别是什么。
what degrees of conditionalities are attached to it.
你知道,援助系统起初是为了奖励
You know, the aid system, at first, was designed to benefit
发达国家的企业家的,
entrepreneurs of the developed countries,
而不是为贫困国家产生财富增长。
not to generate growth in the poor countries.
这又是一个假设:
And this is, again, one of those assumptions —
如同汽车座椅一样的假设,
the way car seats are an assumption
我们从政府和门继承而来的。
that we’ve inherited in governments, and doors.
你也许会想美国政府
You would think that the US government
不认为美国的公司需要
would not think that American firms needed subsidizing
在发展中国家设立分公司,提供建议,
to function in developing countries, provide advice,
但他们需要。
but they do.
面对面援助
There’s an entire weight of history
有一个历史的重量
vis-a-vis aid
这现在需要被重新检验。
that now needs to be reexamined.
如果目标是建立能
If the goal is to build states
可靠地照顾好他们自己的国家,
that can credibly take care of themselves —
而我是公平地将提出这个建议的,
and I’m putting that proposition equally;
你知道,我对于我的对手非常严苛–
you know I’m very harsh on my counterparts —
援助必须在每一个国家,
aid must end
在一定期限内停止。
in each country in a definable period.
每一年,
And every year there must be progress
国内收入的流动
on mobilization of domestic revenue
和经济的刺激生长必须获得进步。
and generation of the economy.
除非那样的一种影响介入,
Unless that kind of compact is entered into,
你们将不能够保持同一意见。
you will not be able to sustain the consensus.

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