我想说的是
I like to say
AI的真正未来
that the real future of AI
不是人工智能
is not artificial intelligence
而是增强的自省能力
but augmented introspection.
所有这些不同的思想理论
All of these different theories of mind
和自我理论
and theories of self,
为重新定义我们期待的强大的自省能力创造了机会
create opportunities for redefining what we want augmented introspection to be.
依照艾瑞克·伯恩的沟通分析理论
Look at Eric Berne’s transactional analysis:
父母 儿童 成人
parent, child, adult.
他们都有不同思考自我的方式
Different ways of thinking about the self.
弗洛伊德提出了精神的三大组成部分 自我 本我 超我
Freud: ego, id, superego.
引用心理学中大量
Let’s use the enormous research
对自我本质的研究—
that has gone on in psychology about the nature of the self –
有存在于个体中的自我本质
the nature of the self as in the individual
有作用于人与人之间自我本质
and the nature of the self as the self relates to other people
让我们用科技去创造自我的多个版本
and let’s use technology to create versions of self
这样可以为更有效 更实在
that allow for more efficacious, more effective,
更富有创造力 创新性 更高产的互动创造条件
more creative, more innovative, more productive interactions.
我认为区分认知工具 增强工具和多重自我或自我的一个方面至关重要
I think it’s important to draw a distinction between a cognitive tool and an enhancement
——多重自我或者自我的一个层面 能够放大 增进 改善 增强
and a multiple self or a version of one’s self that amplifies, exaggerates, improves, enhances
某些对你有真正有意义的特性
augments some attribute that really matters to you.
现在就用一个简单方式来思考这个问题
So here’s a simple way of thinking about this.
我们有谷歌地图
We have Google Maps.
它会给你规划一条路线
It tells you a way to go.
当你着急的时候
You’re in a hurry.
真的很赶时间 所以你准备去抄近道或者闯一两个红灯
You’re in such a hurry that you’re prepared to dare I say cut corners and go through a stop sign or two.
这是你莽撞急躁的自我
That’s your bold impatient self.
那么 谷歌地图应不应该给你推荐一条路线 以满足你那个莽撞急躁的自我
Well, should Google Maps make a recommendation that supports your bold impatient self?
或者你正在亚马逊网站做研究
Or you’re doing research on Amazon,
查找某一个类目的书
you’re looking for books to read on a certain subject.
你不想选那些经常买的主流书籍
You don’t want the mainstream books that you, the typical average normal you ordered,
你也许想选那些看起来会挑战你基本设想
what about the you that looks to challenge your fundamental assumptions,
能拓展你思想的书籍
to stretch your thinking?
如果有一个推荐引擎
What if you had a recommendation engine that
推送能够拓展你思维的东西
recommended stuff for you to read that pushed your thinking?
能挑战你的东西？
That challenged you?
颠覆你原本根深蒂固的设想
That kicked your assumptions in the groin?
那是一个完全不同的工具
That’s a different kind of a tool.
那么 它们的共同点是什么
Now, what do these things have in common?
自我就像代理
The self is about agency.
关乎选择
It’s about choice.
无论你想怎么定义它 它本质上是选择
You, however you want to define it, choose.
我所说的人工智能 机器学习 推荐系统
What I’m saying AI, machine learning and recommenders
和智能推荐系统 所谓的定制的客户推荐系统不同之处
and smart recommenders bespoke customer recommenders make different
在于你可以选取你自己的不同界限和不同的所属领域
is that you can pick different frontiers, different boundaries of yourself.
你最想提高或发展自己的哪个方面
What aspect of yourself do you most want to enhance and advance?
你最想约束或克服自己的哪个方面
What aspect of yourself do you want to mitigate or suppress?
我认为两方面都可以
I think this cuts both ways.
我认为我们将会看到的一个拥有更多同情心 不那么浮躁的自我
I think we’re going to see versions of the self that allow for greater compassion, less impatience.
所以 我认为在一个平衡的状态下思考自我是很重要的
So I think it’s important to think of the self in a symmetrical way.
我们最想提升或者加强哪一些方面的能力
What are the aspects we want to improve and augment?
我们最想缓和或者说改善我们的哪一方面
What are the aspects that we wish to mitigate or ameliorate?
共同的特性是什么
What’s the common denominator?
给人们选择权
Give people the choice.
这就是我为什么这么喜欢推荐引擎
This is why I like recommendation engines so much.
这些引擎不是说 你必须做这个 也没有说你必须买或者看
They’re not called “you have to do this” engines, they’re not “you have to buy or watch this engines“
它们是推荐引擎 由你做出选择
they’re recommendation engines and you choose.
我的建议是 从真正的自我 或者从我们想要成为的大范围和组合中选择
What I’m proposing is we’re choosing from the span and portfolio of multiple versions
如果那是我们所期望的
of who we really are or who we might become if that’s what we want.
我发现其中令人痴迷的地方是 有如此多激动人心 引人入胜
What I have found so fascinating in this is there’s so much exciting and compelling and
开创性的工作存在于心理学 社会学 行为经济学 而且都有关于什么是自我
groundbreaking work in psychology, sociology, behavioral economics about what is the self,
自我又是谁
who is the self.
诺贝尔获奖获得者 丹尼尔·卡内曼的《思考 快与慢》
There’s Nobel Prize winning work from Daniel Kahneman—Thinking Fast and Slow—about
有关直接的自我和缓慢沉思的自我
the immediate self and the more thoughtful slow process self.
已经过世的马文·明斯基 他是人工智能方面的先驱
There’s Marvin Minsky, the late Marvin Minsky, one of the pioneers in artificial intelligence
他提出了一个由思维和模块化大脑所组成的社会
who talked about a society of mind and the modular brain.
有罗伯特·卡兹班
There’s Robert Kurzban.
有乔纳森·海特
There’s Jonathan Haidt.
有社会心理学家和人类学家们关注这个问题 ：谁是那个自我
There’s social psychologists and anthropologists who are looking at: “Who is the self?
一个人的自我和身份之间的区别是什么
What’s the difference between one’s self and one’s identity?”
你知道这些的共同特征吗
And you know what the common denominator to all of this is?
你不是你自己
You are not you.
实证科学研究表明 没有这种东西
There is no such thing, according to empirical scientific research,
就好像自我这种东西不存在一样
there’s no such thing as the self.
事实上很多人打比方说 你的大脑就像一个委员会
In fact the metaphor that many people use is that your mind is like a committee, and
这取决时间如何 心情如何 还有你的大脑 我们正在讨论的大脑
that depending upon time of day and your mood and how your brain, we’re talking about brain
和思维是如何工作的 你或许做了一种决定或选择而非另一种
and mind is working, you might make one kind of decision or choice versus another.
一个自我或者自我的一方面可能占据主导地位
One self or aspect of the self may dominate over another.
我的想法是 利用这些不同的自我来自我设计
My insight is let’s use these different dimensions of self as a design opportunity.
比如说我们看精神社会 什么样的数字工具应该支持这类社会
Let’s look at the society of mind and say what kind of digital tools should support this kind of society?
根据 Danieal Kahneman 的《思考 快与慢》 怎样才能说服我们接受大脑的更快运转和缓慢的大脑运转
Daniel Kahneman thinking fast and slow, what kind of nudges do we want to support the faster brain versus the slower one?
二进制和碎片化已经变成了现实
Bits and slices of this are already becoming a reality.
想象人们关心自我提高的情景很容易
It’s easy to imagine scenarios where people who care about self-improvement, dare I say
我敢说自我的提升 从现今那些技术来看 说我想成为一个更好的领导
selves improvement, look at their technologies and say I want to be a better leader.
我想成为更好的管理者
I want to be a better manager.
我想成为更有说服力或影响力的设计师
I want to be a more persuasive or influential designer.
我想看我最富有同情心的一面是什么样
I want to see what my most compassionate self looks like.
我可以通过 文本分析 情感分析让自己在邮件中 与别人交谈中，我的报告演说中变得更加有影响力
I can use a textual analysis, sentiment analysis to become more influential in my emails, in my chats, in my presentation,
但是我变得更有影响力是不是意味着我会变得更善于掌控别人
but does my becoming more influential mean that I’m also becoming more manipulative?
我不想变得太有掌控性
I don’t want to be manipulative.
这些是那个增强的自我所带来的挑战
These are the kinds of challenges that augmented introspection create.
我们想成为谁
Who do we want to be?
我们想成为谁
Who do we want to be?
我想成为什么样的人
What kind of people do we want to be?
我关注员工的理由是 因为我们生活在一个特别的时代
The reason why I focus so much on employees in the workplace is that we live in a time
我们不仅仅要担忧因为智能机器而失业 也要担心
where we’re not just concerned about losing our jobs to smarter machines, we’re worried
我们如何创造价值
about how do we create value?
我们如何变的更富有成效
How do we become more productive?
十年的经验怎么就不能变成一年内积累十倍惊验
How does ten years of experience not be one year of experience ten times?
我们已经见证了完整的数码工具革新
We’ve already seen a complete revolution of digital tools.
我们已经看到第一和第二代机器人和媒介应用到工作中
We’re already seeing the first and second generation of bots and agents coming into the workplace.
这些都完全可以理解
Completely understandable.
但还不够
Not enough.
还不够
Not enough.
自我提升将会是多种自我的提升
Self-improvement is going to come from selves improvement.