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英国脱欧的发令枪

Article 50: The starting gun for Brexit

下一个会是什么?
What’s Next?
一个事件 两分钟 三个真相
1 Issue, 2 Minutes, 3 Truths to Share
那么发生什么了呢?
1. What’s the story?
今天 英国首相特蕾莎·梅将要启动欧盟条约第50条
Today, Britain’s Prime Minister Teresa May is going to invoke article 50 of the EU Treaty.
这是脱欧进程开始所采取的正式的合法机制
That’s the formal legal mechanism by which the Brexit process begins.
对于英国人而言 这其中的风险很大
For Britain the stakes are particularly high.
迄今为止 英国与欧盟在外交 政治 经济等领域的关系是最为重要的
The relationship with the E.U. is by far the most important diplomatic political economic relationship.
首要任务是达成体面的协议再脱离欧盟
and walking away with a decent deal is top priority.
你都听到了什么?
2. What have you heard?
但其中你可能没听说的是
What you might not have heard is
实际上 两年的时间也不过弹指一挥间
this two-year-period actually is going to be a lot shorter than that sounds.
首先 欧盟官僚体系以及德法正在举行的选举会使该进程延后
It’s going to be delayed at the beginning by EU bureaucracy and elections in France and Germany.
最后 欧盟会员国需要同意该协议 这也会使脱欧延后
And it’s going to be delayed at the end by the need to agree this agreement in all the members states of the E.U.
这些问题的解决也需要六个月
That can take six months too.
所以 事实上应该是一年 而不是两年
So actually, we’re talking about one year, not two.
那么需要注意什么?
3. What to look out for?
在今天 我们需要注意的是特蕾莎·梅到底在她信中说了些什么
The thing to look out for today is exactly what Teresa May says in her letter.
具体而言 布鲁塞尔的人们(泛指各成员国)在她身上寻找某种事实
Specifically, people in Brussels are looking for some kind of acknowledgement on her part
即英国脱欧的确亏欠欧盟
that Britain does owe the E.U. something on leaving.
布鲁塞尔的人们认为英国亏欠欧盟六百亿欧元
People in Brussels have been talking about a bill up to sixty billion Euros.
另一方面 英国一些政客
Some politicians in Britain, on the other hand,
一直声称英国脱欧不需掏一分一毫
have been saying that Britain should walk away without paying anything at all.
如果她一点也不承认这个现实
If she doesn’t at least acknowledge that,
谈判开始便不会顺利
then the negotiations are going to get off to a very rocky start.
人们非常担心英国不仅可能达成不利的协议
People are very worried that Britain might not just get a bad deal,
也有可能不会有任何协议
it might end up with no deal at all.
如果英国没有与欧盟达成某种协议便脱欧 那么 很多事情都会发生
If it crashes out to the E.U. without any kind of agreement, well, various things could happen.
首先 如果英国不得不依靠世贸组织原则 贸易会出现问题
First of all, trade is going to be interrupted if Britain has to fall back on World Trade Organisation rules,
但是如果英国脱欧且不达成任何协议 如航空线路或者关税条例
But there could be even more distructive consequences if Britain leaves without
那么会产生更多毁灭性的后果
any agreements on things like routes for flights or customs agreements
然后你便可以看到货物积压在多佛港 在盖特威克 飞机不允许起飞
then you could see lorries backing up at the Dover, flights not allowed to take off Gatwick
这的确是非常非常复杂
It could be very, very complex indeed.
因此 尽管一些保守党议员确信
So in spite of the assurances of some Conservative MPs that
没有协议总比不利的协议好
no deal would be better than a bad deal.
但对英国而言 与欧盟达成某种“离婚”协议
It seems important to Britain that it walks away with at least some kind of agreement with the E.U.
再脱欧似乎很重要
on how this divorce is going to work.
《每日观察》经济学人影片公司制作
DAILYWATCHAn Economist Films Production

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译制信息
视频概述

这是关于英国脱欧的视频(译者本人其实不支持英国脱欧的)。

听录译者

瞌睡虫儿

翻译译者

孙迎宾

审核员

霜霜

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nTd7lSk95U

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