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为什么考虑问题时不可过分依赖直觉

Are You Sure?: Why your intuition might be faultier than you think

你确定你知道的政治 真理 必然性事件都是对的?
Okay, here’s a question for you:
现在 问你一个问题
Imagine you’re at the equator
想象一下你在赤道上
and there’s a rope tied around the earth
将一根绳子绕地球一圈
– all around the planet there’s a rope lying flat on the ground –
地球上绕着一圈绳子
and pretend there’s no hills or water at the equator
假设赤道上没山也没水
and the rope makes an even circle.
绳子成一个圆圈
Now we cut the rope somewhere
现在 随便在某处剪断它
and we sew on an extra yard of rope.
再另外补上一段一码长的绳子
So now it’s one yard longer than it was before.
现在 它比以前长了一码
Then we evenly pull the rope out around the earth’s surface,
然后 把新绳均匀地沿地面拉紧
making a perfect circle again.
再次形成一个圆圈
Question is how far off the ground is the new rope?
问:新绳离地面多高?
So again, there’s a rope lying flat all around the earth,
再问一遍 有根绳子绕地球一圈
we cut it, add an extra yard rope somewhere,
我们在某个剪断处补加一码长的绳
and then spread the slack around the earth,
然后 将松弛部分沿地面拉紧
in order to get the rope back into a regular circle.
这样绳子就又变成一个圆了
How far off the ground is the new rope?
新绳离地面多高呢?
Is it a mile off the ground?
一英里高?
Is it a yard off the ground?
一码高?
An inch, Hardly anything at all?
一英寸?还是几乎贴着地面?
Almost all of us, when we first hear this question, say:”Hardly anything!”
多数人刚听了这个后会回答:“几乎贴地!”
If the rope came off the ground at all
如果绳子完全脱离地面
We think you wouldn’t even see the space in between;
你甚至看不到任何缝隙
The earth is so big,
地球太大了
what’s a yard across the entire circumference around the earth?
一码分散到地球一周会怎样?
Nothing!
没啥变化啊!
Well keep your chickens in the barnyard,
先别急着下结论
because actually the Rope would be almost six inches off the ground,
因为事实上绳子离地面约有6英寸高
5.73 inches to be exact.
准确点说是5.73英寸
Adding just one yard would essentially leave a tripwire
只增加一码就会在地球周围
all around the entire circumference of the earth.
留下一个绊索
In Kenya, Indonesia, the Galapagos. How can that possibly be?
肯尼亚 印度尼西亚 厄瓜多尔 会如何?
Many people when they first hear this think that’d just be right, Okay.
很多人听后就觉得那肯定对 好吧
Hang on little guy.
伙计 稍安勿躁
I’ll show you why in a sec, but first:
我一会就说原因 但首先
This example was made famous by Ludwig Wittgenstein.
这是一个20世纪的奥地利哲学家
A 20th century philosopher from Austria.
路德维希•维特根斯坦 提出的著名例证
He thought that when we think about the rope,
他认为在我们考虑绳子时
we get fooled by what he would call a picture.
会被一种他所谓的“设想”所迷惑
A picture that applies in many situations, but not this one.
适用于很多情况 但对这个不适用的“设想”
When we spread something small over something much much bigger,
在我们把小东西分散在特别大的东西里
the effect is often negligible to us.
其影响就经常被人忽略
Pour a gallon of water into the ocean and the ocean would hardly rise;
往海里倒一加仑水 海水几乎不往上升
The picture works there.
这就是“设想”
But in case of the Rope things are different.
但是 “绳子事件”是另一回事
Remember this old equation?
还记得这个方程吗?
The circumference, the distance around a circle,
圆周长(圆一周的长度)
always equal two pi times radius.
等于2兀乘以半径
Now with the rope at the equator,
现在 我们加一码
we’re basically adding a yard to the circumference
到原先赤道绳子的周长上
and asking how much the radius increases when we do that.
问在我们做完这的时候半径增加了多少
Since a circle’s circumference is always exactly 2pi
因为一个圆的周长正好是2兀
or 6.28 times its radius,
或是6.28乘它的半径
then if you add one unit to a circumference,
如果你加一单位到圆周长
you’ll always be adding one over two pi units to the radius.
你就要在半径上加1/2兀
In other words, how much the radius increases remarkably has nothing to do
换句话说 半径的增加明显没让
with how big the circle is.
圆变得有多大
So whenever you add a yard to a circle
所以每当你加一码到圆上
it doesn’t matter how big the circle is.
都不会让圆有多大
Whether you add a yard to a rope around the earth
无论你加一码到绕地球
or a rope around a tennis ball
还是系网球上的绳子
or to a tiny string tied around a needle,
亦或是系在针上的细线上
the circle ends up 1 over 2 pi times a yard further out,
圆半径最终都是增加1/2兀乘一码
or 5.73 inches.
(5.73英寸)
Now even when people see this proof;
现在 即使看到证据
even when you show them the algebra for each individual case,
甚至你给他们看每一种情况的代数
many of us still remain certain that the rope at the equator
大多数人无疑还认为绳子在赤道上
wouldn’t come so far off the ground. But we’re wrong… Ok,
没离地面太远 但我们错了…
whatever, who cares about this?
好吧 谁在意这个?
There is no rope at the equator.
赤道上没有绳子
Well, first it’s just interesting that so many of us make that mistake.
首先 有趣的是我们很多人都犯错了
What is it about the human mind or
到底是什么让大脑
brain that makes us all reason incorrectly here?
和思维做出错误的推理?
And be so sure?
还如此确信?
Second, it’s a reminder of the fact
其次 它提醒我们
that even when we’re certain about something.
即使我们确信某事
We’re sometimes wrong.
有时我们也会错
A reminder that something can seem completely obvious to us
那种在我们看来是显而易见的事情
and yet it not even be true.
根本就是错的
But the big question is:
不过 最大问题是:
what does this mean for many of our
这对我们其他的想法
other thoughts and convictions?
和信念意义如何?
Should we therefore be less confident in them?
我们会因此不确信他们吗?
Should we never be certain of anything? That doesn’t seem right.
我们决不能确信任何事吗? 不对吧
Part of it depends on how often this happens to us,
那些“设想”之所以误导迷惑我们
that were misled or captivated by a picture,
一是因为我们习惯了
or are certain about something but wrong.
再就是因为信错了事
Does it happen just in these weird cooked up cases
但它仅发生在绳子绕地球这类怪异
like the rope around the earth?
而虚构的事上吗?
Or does it happen in more real-life cases?
是否也在很多现实事件中发生
Could it happen to us when we think about safe politics?
当我们思考安全政治时它会发生吗?
Or when we contemplate the rationality of other people?
或是当我们沉思他人的合理行为时
Or reflect on the biggest questions of all about life and philosophy?
亦或是深思那些生活和人生大事时?
For instance, think about the current political debate
举个例子 在关于美国最低薪资的
in the US about minimum wage.
政治问题的探讨
I myself have thought a lot about that particular issue
我自己想了很多特定的问题
and I’m certain that raising the minimum wage is the best thing to do.
并且 我深信提高最低工资是百利无害的
But now is it possible I’ve been misled
但现在我是否可能已经
by a picture in my thinking about that?
被我认为的“设想”误导了
Now I want to say”No, of course not!”
我想说:“肯定没有 ”
When I review all my reasons
回顾那些我所列的
for thinking we should increase the minimum wage,
增加最低薪资的理由
they seem watertight.
它们貌似无懈可击
But then, that’s what I would have said about all my reasons
但这就是我要说的关于
for thinking that the rope wouldn’t come much off the ground.
绳子不会离地面太远的理由
“No way!” you say to me,
你会说:“不可能!”
Maybe this sort of thing happens to you when you think about political issues, but not me!
也许在你考虑政治问题时 这种事会发生 但我肯定不会
I would know if I were making mistakes in my political reasoning.
我会知道我政治论证的错处
I’m careful in my reasoning and honest with myself.”
因为我论证充分并且严于律己
But here’s the thing,
还有就是
you probably wouldn’t know if you were making those kinds of mistakes. Why?
可能你认为你没做错 为什么?
Well, think about the Rope again.
那么 再想一下那个绳子
The only thing that convinces people about the rope
关于绳子唯一让人信服的
is the proof from the formula.
就是公式的验证
The intuition is so strong there
那里面直觉太强了
that nothing but the proof would get you to see you were wrong.
只有那些证据才会让你知道你错了
But with many things in life –
但重点是 生活中的很多事
and here’s the crucial point – there just aren’t proofs!
是没有证据的!
And so in those kinds of cases where there are no proofs,
在你陷入错误的设想时
if you ever were in a grip of misleading picture,
这种情况下也是没有证据的
it’d be very difficult for you ever to see that you were.
你很难发现自己被误导了
Because no proof or formula would be there to convince you.
因为没有公式和证据来说服你
So put those two points together.
所以记住这两点:
One was sometimes certain about something yet it’s not even true.
其一 有时候我们所深信的根本就是错的
And two, there are many topics
其二 我们经常会产生很多
where if this happen to us.
错误的惯性思维
It’s unlikely we’d ever realize that it did. So,
而且不太可能意识到 那么
how should an open-minded honest person regard her own certainty
一个开明坦诚的人该如何对待她的信仰呢?
in areas where there often no proofs like politics, philosophy,
在政治 哲学 道德 美学
ethics, and aesthetics?
这些没有证明方法的领域里
Maybe we should be a lot less confident in our beliefs.
也许我们要怀疑自己的信念
After all, we may be wrong more often than we realize…
毕竟 我们犯的错比发现的多
Or maybe we should be a touch less confident.
也许我们应该避免过于自信
Maybe it’s a sign of weakness to temper one’s convictions,
也许信仰不坚定是软弱的一种表现
maybe we should remain certain whenever we feel certain.
也许我们该坚信的时候还是要保留一份信仰
What do you think?
你认为呢?

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视频概述

为什么我们不能过分相信直觉?我们直觉到底对不对?什么让我们的直觉不对?对此我们可以怎么做?…对于这些问题本次视频将为您一一讲解。

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翻译译者

kuki仔

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gigEFym_iM4

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