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中了14次彩票的经济学家

An Economist Won The Lottery 14 Times By Buying Every Number Combination | Planet Money | NPR

“Go Lotto, and go after that big money. And good luck.”
“玩乐透赢大奖 祝你好运”
There used to be a way to play the lottery where you were guaranteed to win,
曾经有一个人发明出一种玩彩票的方法
and one man figured out how to do it.
这种方法能保证让你中大奖
His name was Stefan Mandel,
他就是斯蒂芬·曼德尔
and he took the luck out of the lottery.
他中奖不靠运气靠实力
His story starts in the late 1950s in Romania.
他的故事发生在20世纪50年代末的罗马尼亚
Stefan is working a job that he doesn’t like at an industrial mining company,
斯蒂芬在一家矿业公司从事一份他不喜欢的工作
and he’s got a young family and he’s making almost no money.
而且他刚刚建立了自己的小家庭 也没赚到什么钱
Now Stefan is great at math,
斯蒂芬数学很好
but it doesn’t take a math whiz to see that this is a bad situation.
但不是数学天才也能看出他处境困难
He wants to get out of the country, and he needs the cash to do it.
他想离开这个国家 但是没有钱
So he starts looking into lottery tickets.
于是他开始研究彩票
“Welcome to the Romanian lottery.
“欢迎收看《罗马尼亚彩票》”
“I will now draw the first number.”
“我现在要摇第一个号码了”
“64!”
“64!”
But Stefan isn’t just gonna out and buy random tickets.
但斯蒂芬不是跑出去随便买几张彩票
Instead, he starts reading all these math papers,
而是开始查阅所有与之相关的数学论文
and he develops a formula for nearly guaranteeing a lottery win.
并研究出一个几乎可以保证中大奖的公式
He pulls in three friends,
他找来了三个朋友
and he tells them he’s found this method
告诉他们自己发现的这个公式
called “combinatorial condensation”
并称之为“数字选择算法”
that he says can accurately predict five of the six winning lottery numbers,
他声称可以准确预测六个中奖数字中的五个
so now instead of millions of possible combinations,
这样 彩票号码组合就从几百万种可能
there are only thousands to choose from.
缩小到只有几千种了
For some reason, his friends believe him.
出于某种原因 他的朋友们相信了他
They don’t have enough money to buy all of the blocks of tickets that they wanted to,
他们没有足够的钱去买所有想买的彩票
so they make a plan to guarantee at least second prize.
所以他们制定了一个计划来确保至少可以获得二等奖
They go out and they buy up the blocks of tickets, and….
他们出去买了大量的彩票 然后……
it works better than they could have hoped.
结果比预想的更好
They win first place,
他们中了头奖
and in one day they make the equivalent of 18 years of salary.
而且在这一天里得到的奖金就相当于他们18年的工资
So Stefan takes his share and leaves Romania.
所以斯蒂芬拿了自己的那份钱 离开了罗马尼亚
He moves to Australia.
他搬到了澳大利亚
And he decides to finally get serious about his career.
并最终决定把这个当作正经职业来做
He doubles down on gaming the lottery.
他加倍下注买彩票
He’s got a new system now, an even simpler one.
他建立了一个新的 甚至更简单的系统
He’s going to wait until the jackpot is so high
他计划等头奖金额累计到足够高的时候
that he can buy every combination of numbers
就买下所有的彩票号码组合
and still turn a profit when he wins.
这样当他中奖时仍可盈利
But now there’s a logistics problem.
但目前还有一个后勤问题
He can’t send people to every store in Australia to buy that many tickets.
他不可能派人到澳大利亚的每家彩票店 都买那么多彩票
So he says, “Why don’t I automate it?”
于是他就想 “为什么我不能自动投注呢?”
He sets up a room filled with printers and a computer program
他设置了一个摆满打印机的房间和一个电脑程序
that is going to spit out those lottery slips
这个程序可以把已经写满
already filled out with every possible combination.
各种彩票组合的投注单打印出来
The weirdest part: this was all completely legal.
最不可思议的是 这种做法是完全合法的
At least, it was at the time.
至少当时是合法的
And he didn’t just do it once.
而且他不止一次这么操作
He does it again and again and again.
而是做了一次又一次
He eventually wins the Australian lottery 12 times.
他最终赢得了12次澳大利亚彩票头奖
When the government found out about this, they were not happy.
当政府得知此事时 他们很是不满
They were like, this ends right here, right now.
他们想 这一情况必须 现在 马上 终结
So, they decide to write a law.
所以 他们决定制定一项法律条款
And it says no one person can buy every combination of lottery tickets.
法规声明 任何人不得买下所有彩票组合
And so Stefan, he just broke it up into 50 different people
于是斯蒂芬将所有的彩票组合分成了50份
who each bought one-fiftieth of the numbers,
交由50个人进行购买
and he went on winning.
然后他继续中奖
The government keeps making new laws until they finally stop him.
政府不断制定新的法律 直到最终阻止了他的行为
But even this did not put Stefan out of business.
即便如此 斯蒂芬彩票事业依然没有结束
Instead he starts looking for something even bigger.
相反 他有了更宏伟的想法
He starts looking into state lotteries in the USA.
他开始关注美国的国家福利彩
“Where ya headed?”
“你要去哪?”
“Virginia!”
“弗吉尼亚!”
“What’s in Virginia?”
“弗吉尼亚有什么吗?”
“Trees and lotto.”
“树和彩票”
“Lotto with million-dollar jackpots?”
“有头奖金额高达上百万美元的彩票吗?”
“Right.”
“有啊”
“I hear the chances are one in 7 million!”
“我听说中奖率是700万分之一!”
It’s 1992,
那是1992年
and the Virginia Lottery jackpot has just cracked $27 million.
当时弗吉尼亚的彩票头奖刚刚超过2700万美元
But there’s just over 7 million combinations of lottery numbers,
而所有的彩票组合只有700万多一点
and Stefan plans on buying every one of those combos.
斯蒂芬打算买下所有的彩票组合
His first challenge is making sure he isn’t going to spend
他面临的第一个挑战就是
more money than he stands to make.
保证让赚的钱比花的钱多
He had to account for splitting the pot.
他不得不考虑拆分赌注总额
Next he has to raise the money,
接下来他必须筹集资金
and the way that he organizes his investors is genius
而他组织投资人的方法简直是天才之举
and a little sketchy.
而且还略带狡猾
He’s still in Australia,
他依旧住在澳大利亚
and he’d gotten a job at an insurance company
并且在保险公司找了份工作
where he’s selling this very specific type of guaranteed life insurance
推销一种十分特殊的人寿保险
where people can get their money back in full after a few years if they want to.
愿意的话 人们可以在几年后将钱全额收回
And he’d use the commissions from those sales to buy the lottery tickets.
然后他就用卖保险赚得的佣金来买彩票
So he was able to promise his investors that
这样他就能向投资者们保证
if he won, they’d get a cut.
只要赢了彩票 他们就可以得到分红
If he somehow lost, their money was guaranteed in that insurance policy.
如果他没赢钱 他们的资金也有保险单担保
He raises millions of dollars from 2,500 people.
他从2500个人手里筹集了上百万美元
He’s the biggest policy seller in the company.
成为公司最厉害的保险推销员
And then comes his hardest obstacle.
接着 他迎来了人生中最大的挑战
The logistics of actually buying 7.1 million Virginia Lottery tickets
即从澳大利亚各地实际购买710万
from all the way in Australia.
弗吉尼亚彩票的组织工作
He has an advantage there.
他在那占有优势
He still has all his printers set up from the Australian lotteries.
他还有购买澳大利亚彩票时就装备好的打印机
So he gets the machines back up and running,
他重新启动并投入使用这些设备
and then he contracts $60,000 worth of air freight
然后和航空公司签订了价值六万美金的合同
to fly the tickets to Virginia,
把这些彩票空运到弗吉尼亚
where he had a whole team of accountants on the ground doing the legwork.
在那里他有一整个会计团队为他跑腿
Finally it’s time to pull the numbers.
最后就是开奖的时刻了
Meanwhile, Stefan Steady Hand Mandel is cool as a cucumber.
与此同时 稳健的斯蒂芬·曼德尔泰然自若
Because he knows he’s guaranteed to win one first prize,
因为他知道他一定会赢得唯一的头奖
six second prizes and 132 third prizes —
6个二等奖以及132个三等奖
$27 million plus thousands of bonus minor prizes.
这些奖项共价值2700万美元 外加几千次小奖
The number is drawn and …
彩票号码即将出炉 然后……
Well, let’s just say Stefan now lives on a tropical island in the South Pacific.
这这么说吧 斯蒂芬现在住在太平洋西岸的一个热带小岛上
He’s the last guy to do it too.
他也是最后一个这么做的人
The number of combinations in lotteries has just grown too much to do this again.
因为彩票号码组合不断增加 已经无法再这样操作了
“I will now draw the second number.”
“我现在要摇第二个号了”
“85!”
“85!”

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视频概述

保证你中奖的公式?!竟原来这么简单!

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UvkcD0DxqY

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