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奥布里德格雷Aubrey de Grey说,我们能够避免老化

A roadmap to end aging | Aubrey de Grey

十八分钟是一个非常紧的时间限制
18 minutes is an absolutely brutal time limit,
因此我直入主题
so I’m going to dive straight in, right at the point
讲重点的我将马上开始好
where I get this thing to work.
我要谈五个不同的事情一
Here we go. I’m going to talk about five different things.
我要谈谈为什么抗老化是可行的二
I’m going to talk about why defeating aging is desirable.
我要谈谈为什么我们必须打起精神
I’m going to talk about why we have to get our shit together,
多讨论这个课题 并且发觉我们应该指望战胜老化当然
and actually talk about this a bit more than we do.
三 我也会谈谈战胜老化的可行性四
I’m going to talk about feasibility as well, of course.
我要谈谈为什么我们在人类抗老化上采取的行动这么的认命
I’m going to talk about why we are so fatalistic
以为都是注定的然后
about doing anything about aging.
第五 我也许在这个节目的下半段的时间谈谈
And then I’m going spend perhaps the second half of the talk
我们如何证明这个[对战胜老化]漠不关心以及以为是注定的心态是错误的
talking about, you know, how we might actually be able to prove that fatalism is wrong,
并且实际上做点什么事来纠正这个错误
namely, by actually doing something about it.
这第五点 我会用两个步骤来谈论
I’m going to do that in two steps.
第一个步骤是
The first one I’m going to talk about is
如何从一个相对适中的延长寿命治疗科技
how to get from a relatively modest amount of life extension —
-我这就把它定义为可延长三十年寿命
which I’m going to define as 30 years, applied to people
并且在已经是中年年龄的人开始应用
who are already in middle-age when you start —
–直到一个能真正被称为战胜老化问题的程度
to a point which can genuinely be called defeating aging.
也就是说 实质上消除了你多大年纪
Namely, essentially an elimination of the relationship between
以及你在下一年死去或
how old you are and how likely you are to die in the next year —
生病的可能性之间的关系
or indeed, to get sick in the first place.
最后一件事[第五件事情
And of course, the last thing I’m going to talk about
第二个步骤]我要谈的是如何实现过度步骤
is how to reach that intermediate step,
那个能给我们每一个人延长三十年寿命的治疗科技好
that point of maybe 30 years life extension.
我就从为什么要延长人类的寿命开始现在
So I’m going to start with why we should.
我想问一个问题
Now, I want to ask a question.
观众席里有谁赞成疟疾是有利的?
Hands up: anyone in the audience who is in favor of malaria?
请举手好
That was easy. OK.
这很简单行 行 请不知道疟疾
OK. Hands up: anyone in the audience
是好事还是坏事的人举手?
who’s not sure whether malaria is a good thing or a bad thing?
好 所以 我们都认为 疟疾是一件坏事
OK. So we all think malaria is a bad thing.
这是一个非常好的消息 因为我原以为这就是答案
That’s very good news, because I thought that was what the answer would be.
现在我希望你们想一想
Now the thing is, I would like to put it to you
我们认为疟疾是一件坏事主要的原因
that the main reason why we think that malaria is a bad thing
是因为疟疾和老化有着共同的特征
is because of a characteristic of malaria that it shares with aging.
那个特征就是两者都杀死人
And here is that characteristic.
唯一真正的区别是 老龄化杀死的人数比疟疾杀死的多许多现在
The only real difference is that aging kills considerably more people than malaria does.
我喜欢观众 尤其是在英国的观众
Now, I like in an audience, in Britain especially,
比较一下老化和打猎狐狸
to talk about the comparison with foxhunting,
打猎狐狸是是经过长期斗争
which is something that was banned after a long struggle,
不久前被政府禁止的活动
by the government not very many months ago.
我的意思是 虽然我知道富有同情心的观众应该大多数都反对打猎狐狸
I mean, I know I’m with a sympathetic audience here,
但我们知道 很多人并不是完全被这个逻辑说服
but, as we know, a lot of people are not entirely persuaded by this logic.
在我看来 这其实和老化是一个不错的比较你知道
And this is actually a rather good comparison, it seems to me.
很多[郊外]的人说:
You know, a lot of people said, “Well, you know,
“你们这些住在城市的人没有权利告诉我们什么活动可以做什么东西不能做
city boys have no business telling us rural types what to do with our time.
这是我们[住在郊外的人]的传统生活方式的一部分
It’s a traditional part of the way of life,
我们应该有权力继续做它
and we should be allowed to carry on doing it.
这是促进生态健全的 它控制了狐狸数量爆涨 ”
It’s ecologically sound; it stops the population explosion of foxes.”
但是 政府最终占了上风
But ultimately, the government prevailed in the end,
因为大多数的英国公众
because the majority of the British public,
还有国会多数成员
and certainly the majority of members of Parliament,
得出的结论 就是这[打猎狐狸]
came to the conclusion that it was really something
是一个文明社会所不能容忍的活动我认为
that should not be tolerated in a civilized society.
人类衰老也有这些特点
And I think that human aging shares
它是一个不能容忍的活动
all of these characteristics in spades.
这有什么难明白的?
What part of this do people not understand?
这当然不只是生命
It’s not just about life, of course —
(众笑)
(Laughter) —
这也是有关可以健康的生活下去
it’s about healthy life, you know —
因为无论人们觉得死亡是否好玩[是否应该容忍]
getting frail and miserable and dependent is no fun,
身体越来越衰弱 悲惨地依赖别人一点都不好玩因此
whether or not dying may be fun.
其实这就是我想要对它的[人类衰老]描述
So really, this is how I would like to describe it.
这[它]是一个全球性恍惚
It’s a global trance.
这是人们对老龄化作出了
These are the sorts of unbelievable excuses
种种令人难以置信的借口而且
that people give for aging.
我的意思是 好吧
And, I mean, OK, I’m not actually saying
我不是在说这些借口是完全没有价值
that these excuses are completely valueless.
这些借口也有一些好的积极方面
There are some good points to be made here,
比如说我们应该思考的种种问题
things that we ought to be thinking about, forward planning
有规划些来尽量减少我们在战胜老化路途上
so that nothing goes too — well, so that we minimize
的不必要的动荡
the turbulence when we actually figure out how to fix aging.
但只要如果你真正衡量它们
But these are completely crazy, when you actually
这些借口都是完全疯了!
remember your sense of proportion.
你知道 这些[借口的]论点
You know, these are arguments; these are things that
是合理的
would be legitimate to be concerned about.
值得去关注但问题是 这些论点有没有那么危险?
But the question is, are they so dangerous —
战胜老化的风险
these risks of doing something about aging —
有没有高过
that they outweigh the downside of doing the opposite,
不理会人类老化的代价?
namely, leaving aging as it is?
难道这些[修复老化的风险]如此糟糕
Are these so bad that they outweigh
比每天超过十万人面对早死的命运还糟糕?
condemning 100,000 people a day to an unnecessarily early death?
你知道 如果你还没有比这一个说法更强的论点
You know, if you haven’t got an argument that’s that strong,
那么就不要浪费我的时间 这是我[对反对战胜老化]的看法
then just don’t waste my time, is what I say.
(众笑)
(Laughter)
话虽如此 有一种观点有些人认为
Now, there is one argument
确实是很强 我们就在这儿讨论一下
that some people do think really is that strong, and here it is.
人们担心人口过多
People worry about overpopulation; they say,
他们说“好吧 如果我们战胜老化 没有人类死亡可言
“Well, if we fix aging, no one’s going to die to speak of,
或至少是死亡人数变得低得多
or at least the death toll is going to be much lower,
变得只有不小心越过圣吉尔斯河而死[笑话]因此
only from crossing St. Giles carelessly.
我们不需要有很多孩子
And therefore, we’re not going to be able to have many kids,
可是孩子对多数人很重要 ”
and kids are really important to most people.”
这是事实你知道
And that’s true.
很多人试图捏造这个问题
And you know, a lot of people try to fudge this question,
并给予这样的答案
and give answers like this.
我不同意这些答案 我认为它们根本行不通
I don’t agree with those answers. I think they basically don’t work.
我认为这是真的 我们会在这方面面临两难
I think it’s true, that we will face a dilemma in this respect.
我们将必须决定是否有一个低生育水平
We will have to decide whether to have a low birth rate,
或者高死亡率
or a high death rate.
拒绝这些战胜老化治疗 死亡率就会变高[和接受治疗的死亡率相比下]当然
A high death rate will, of course, arise from simply rejecting these therapies,
在这种情况下我们就能生许多孩子
in favor of carrying on having a lot of kids.
我觉得这没问题
And, I say that that’s fine —
–人类的下一代 有权做出这个选择
the future of humanity is entitled to make that choice.
不正确和不应该的是我们现在就替下一代的做出这个选择
What’s not fine is for us to make that choice on behalf of the future.
如果因为我们犹豫
If we vacillate, hesitate,
而不开发这些[战胜老化的]疗法
and do not actually develop these therapies,
那么我们就等于判了我们的子孙一个不能永远活着的命运
then we are condemning a whole cohort of people —
本来因为他们够年轻
who would have been young enough and healthy enough
够健康可以获益于这些疗法
to benefit from those therapies, but will not be,
但因为我们的犹豫 没有尽快开发这些疗法
because we haven’t developed them as quickly as we could —
–我们等于不让这些人有更长的寿命
we’ll be denying those people an indefinite life span,
我认为这是不道德的
and I consider that that is immoral.
这是我对人口过多的问题的回应好
That’s my answer to the overpopulation question.
接下来的是
Right. So the next thing is,
为什么我们应该在这一方面积极点?
now why should we get a little bit more active on this?
最根本的答案是 [潜意识的认同老化是必然的]
And the fundamental answer is that
亲老化恍惚并不像它看起来的那么笨
the pro-aging trance is not as dumb as it looks.
它其实是在应对无法避免的老化时的一个很明智的办法
It’s actually a sensible way of coping with the inevitability of aging.
老化是可怕的 但它是不可避免的
Aging is ghastly, but it’s inevitable, so, you know,
所以我们必须想尽办法把这想法从我们头脑中忘记
we’ve got to find some way to put it out of our minds,
理性地去做我们想要做的事情来改变例如
and it’s rational to do anything that we might want to do, to do that.
人类会想出这些荒谬的原因
Like, for example, making up these ridiculous reasons
来解释其实老化是件好事当然
why aging is actually a good thing after all.
这些[荒谬]的原因的起因有两个连接部分[一是老化 二是命中注定 ]
But of course, that only works when we have both of these components.
只要命中注定那个部分在我们的脑海中没那么的肯定
And as soon as the inevitability bit becomes a little bit unclear —
我们就可以开始对战胜老化采取行动
and we might be in range of doing something about aging —
这是老化问题的一部分
this becomes part of the problem.
这亲老化恍惚常常妨碍人们解决老化这个问题
This pro-aging trance is what stops us from agitating about these things.
这就是为什么我们一定要继续提出以及谈论这个课题
And that’s why we have to really talk about this a lot —
我甚至会说
evangelize, I will go so far as to say, quite a lot —
–为了吸引人们的注意力 使人们认识到
in order to get people’s attention, and make people realize
他们在这方面的恍惚
that they are in a trance in this regard.
关于这个话题我就说到这里
So that’s all I’m going to say about that.
我现在要谈的是第三点 打败老化的可行性
I’m now going to talk about feasibility.
其根本原因 我想 为什么我们认为老化是不可避免的
And the fundamental reason, I think, why we feel that aging is inevitable
是可以用我在这儿给老化的定义作为总结
is summed up in a definition of aging that I’m giving here.
这是一个非常简单的定义
A very simple definition.
老化是一种活着的副作用
Aging is a side effect of being alive in the first place,
也就是说 新陈代谢的副作用
which is to say, metabolism.
这并不是一个完全同义重复的声明
This is not a completely tautological statement;
它是一个合理的声明
it’s a reasonable statement.
老龄化基本上是一个过程 发生在无生命的物体如汽车
Aging is basically a process that happens to inanimate objects like cars,
也发生在人类的身上
and it also happens to us,
尽管我们的身体有很多聪明的自我修复机制
despite the fact that we have a lot of clever self-repair mechanisms,
因为这些自我修复机制还不完善[我们还是会老化]基本上
because those self-repair mechanisms are not perfect.
新陈代谢
So basically, metabolism, which is defined as
就是说[在我们身体里]所有为了让我们能够每一天活着所维持的种种化学过程
basically everything that keeps us alive from one day to the next,
有副作用
has side effects.
这些副作用会不断的积累 最终导致病理[不可避免的死亡]
Those side effects accumulate and eventually cause pathology.
这是一个不错的定义 因此 我们可以这样表达
That’s a fine definition. So we can put it this way:
我们可以说 大家都知道 我们有着这一系列事件
we can say that, you know, we have this chain of events.
而且根据大多数人 对于推迟衰老
And there are really two games in town,
只有两种方法
according to most people, with regard to postponing aging.
这两种方法就是老年学和老年医学
They’re what I’m calling here the “gerontology approach” and the “geriatrics approach.”
老年医学医生会在一个人老化过程的后段
The geriatrician will intervene late in the day,
病理越来越明显的时候
when pathology is becoming evident,
做治疗来尽量阻止老化时间
and the geriatrician will try and hold back the sands of time,
和副作用积累
and stop the accumulation of side effects
并且阻止那么快就造成不可避免地死亡当然
from causing the pathology quite so soon.
这是一个非常短暂的战略
Of course, it’s a very short-term-ist strategy; it’s a losing battle,
是一个败仗因为导致病理[不可避免地死亡]的这些副作用
because the things that are causing the pathology
会随着时间的推移越来越多
are becoming more abundant as time goes on.
老年学的方法在表面上看起来更充满希望具发展前景
The gerontology approach looks much more promising on the surface,
因为你们也知道 预防胜于治疗
because, you know, prevention is better than cure.
但不幸的是 我们对新陈代谢的理解非常少事实上
But unfortunately the thing is that we don’t understand metabolism very well.
我们对生物体的了解少的可怜
In fact, we have a pitifully poor understanding of how organisms work —
–甚至细胞 我们都不是很懂
even cells we’re not really too good on yet.
连对细胞如何操作的
We’ve discovered things like, for example,
基本知识 例如核糖核酸机能失常
RNA interference only a few years ago,
在仅仅几年前 我们才发现它基本上
and this is a really fundamental component of how cells work.
如果我们要讨论在我们一生中能用到的延长寿命的治疗
Basically, gerontology is a fine approach in the end,
老年学以后将会是一个很好的方法
but it is not an approach whose time has come
但它的时机未到[因为我们对新陈代谢的理解还太少]然后呢
when we’re talking about intervention.
这怎么办呢?
So then, what do we do about that?
我的意思 这是一个很好的逻辑
I mean, that’s a fine logic, that sounds pretty convincing,
听起来非常有说服力的
pretty ironclad, doesn’t it?
不是吗?但事实并非如此
But it isn’t.
在我告诉你为什么不能之前
Before I tell you why it isn’t, I’m going to go a little bit
我要谈谈我所谓的第二步
into what I’m calling step two.
我们假设 如果正如我所说的我们
Just suppose, as I said, that we do acquire —
– 假设说今天
let’s say we do it today for the sake of argument —
–就拥有能够给现在已是中年 假设说五十五岁的人
the ability to confer 30 extra years of healthy life
多三十年的健康寿命的治疗方法
on people who are already in middle age, let’s say 55.
我称这为‘强健人类再生’
I’m going to call that “robust human rejuvenation.” OK.
好那么实际上这对于现在不同年龄的人们
What would that actually mean
或者相等地 当这些治疗方法到达时
for how long people of various ages today —
已是不同年龄的人有什么影响呢?
or equivalently, of various ages at the time that these therapies arrive —
他们会活多久些呢?
would actually live?
你可能会认为回答这个问题很简单
In order to answer that question — you might think it’s simple,
但它并不简单
but it’s not simple.
我们不能只是说:“好吧 如果他们足够年轻 得益于这些治疗方法
We can’t just say, “Well, if they’re young enough to benefit from these therapies,
那么他们就会活[比本来]多三十年的时间 ”
then they’ll live 30 years longer.”
这是错误的答案
That’s the wrong answer.
而错误的原因是因为进步
And the reason it’s the wrong answer is because of progress.
对于我们这方面的治疗
There are two sorts of technological progress really,
科学进步有两种
for this purpose.
第一种是突破性的进步
There are fundamental, major breakthroughs,
然后还有第二种就是不断的在那些突破性的进步上做出改良和提高它们的有效率
and there are incremental refinements of those breakthroughs.
这两种科学进步所需的
Now, they differ a great deal
时间的预测度有很大的不同
in terms of the predictability of time frames.
我们很难预测
Fundamental breakthroughs:
多久才会有
very hard to predict how long it’s going to take
突破性的进步
to make a fundamental breakthrough.
人类很有可能在很多年前就想在天空上飞行了
It was a very long time ago that we decided that flying would be fun,
可是要等到一九零三年才发现到底怎么飞行
and it took us until 1903 to actually work out how to do it.
可是这之后 人类飞行的科技就很有步骤地发展下去
But after that, things were pretty steady and pretty uniform.
我认为这是一个很合乎情理才导致了
I think this is a reasonable sequence of events that happened
动力飞行的科技进展
in the progression of the technology of powered flight.
我们可以想象这些科技发展的每一步都是
We can think, really, that each one is sort of
上一步的研发人所想不到的
beyond the imagination of the inventor of the previous one, if you like.
比起原先每次都递进增值有
The incremental advances have added up to something
进展
which is not incremental anymore.
在每个科学突破性的进步后 您都会看到这些有步骤性的发展
This is the sort of thing you see after a fundamental breakthrough.
而且在很多科技上都是这样
And you see it in all sorts of technologies.
比如说电脑 和飞行科技也很类似
Computers: you can look at a more or less parallel time line,
只是发生的时间不同罢了
happening of course a bit later.
您也可以看一看医药保健科技 比如说卫生 疫苗
You can look at medical care. I mean, hygiene, vaccines, antibiotics —
抗生素也有着一样的发展时间表因此
you know, the same sort of time frame.
我认为其实两个步骤 我刚才称为一个步骤
So I think that actually step two, that I called a step a moment ago,
并不完全是一个步骤事实上
isn’t a step at all.
很年轻的人
That in fact, the people who are young enough
会从这些实验治疗方法受益
to benefit from these first therapies
能使人们的生命适量延长
that give this moderate amount of life extension,
即使这些人已经中年 当这些治疗方法来到
even though those people are already middle-aged when the therapies arrive,
人们还可以尝试治疗方法
will be at some sort of cusp.
他们多数活得足够长来接受改进的治疗方法
They will mostly survive long enough to receive improved treatments
从而使他们多活30年甚至50年
that will give them a further 30 or maybe 50 years.
换句话说 他们将领先于老化的速度
In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game.
治疗法比起治疗法中存在的缺陷
The therapies will be improving faster than
改进得更快
the remaining imperfections in the therapies are catching up with us.
这是我想说的非常重要的一点因为
This is a very important point for me to get across.
很多人一听到
Because, you know, most people, when they hear
我推测很多现在活着的人将会活到一千或更多年以上
that I predict that a lot of people alive today are going to live to 1,000 or more,
他们都在想 哦 我们将会在这几十年内发明
they think that I’m saying that we’re going to invent therapies in the next few decades
延缓老化的治疗方法
that are so thoroughly eliminating aging
研究如何活到一千年甚至更多的治疗方法
that those therapies will let us live to 1,000 or more.
我并不是这么说
I’m not saying that at all.
我说的只是这些延长寿命的治疗方法的
I’m saying that the rate of improvement of those therapies
发展速度会足够使人们继续活下去
will be enough.
这些治疗方法我想永远都不可能完美
They’ll never be perfect, but we’ll be able to fix the things
但我们将可以在还没有两百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗两百岁的人所死于的病理因素接下来
that 200-year-olds die of, before we have any 200-year-olds.
我们就在还没有三 四百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗三 四百岁的人所死于的因素
And the same for 300 and 400 and so on.
我称这为“长寿逃逸速度”
I decided to give this a little name,
要逃离死亡 长寿治疗方法必有快速的发展
which is “longevity escape velocity.”
叫逃逸速度(笑声)
(Laughter)
这是个很容易明白的名称
Well, it seems to get the point across.
这就是我们可以期待
So, these trajectories here are basically how we would expect people to live,
在余下的预期寿命
in terms of remaining life expectancy,
以他们的健康来衡量
as measured by their health,
到了一定年龄 相对应的治疗就相应而出
for given ages that they were at the time that these therapies arrive.
如果你已经100岁 或者你是80岁
If you’re already 100, or even if you’re 80 —
平均80岁
and an average 80-year-old,
我们可能很难为您做些什么
we probably can’t do a lot for you with these therapies,
因为您的时间不多了
because you’re too close to death’s door
所以最初的 实验性疗法对你已经不起作用了
for the really initial, experimental therapies to be good enough for you.
你将无法避免老化可是
You won’t be able to withstand them.
如果您才五十岁的话
But if you’re only 50, then there’s a chance
您很有可能像我刚刚描述的那个样子摆脱了老化去世的问题
that you might be able to pull out of the dive and, you know —
(笑声)
(Laughter) —
您不但可以活的更久些
eventually get through this
某种意义上
and start becoming biologically younger in a meaningful sense,
你的青春 从身体和头脑上 你的生命变得更加年轻
in terms of your youthfulness, both physical and mental,
你死于和老化有关的病症的几率也会降低当然
and in terms of your risk of death from age-related causes.
如果你还不到五十岁的话
And of course, if you’re a bit younger than that,
您更有可能永远摆脱了老化去世的问题
then you’re never really even going
而不会虚弱因老化而生成的疾病死亡因此
to get near to being fragile enough to die of age-related causes.
这是我得到的一个真正的结论 就是说第一位[能够活到一百五十岁
So this is a genuine conclusion that I come to, that the first 150-year-old —
–我们不知道该人现在多老了
we don’t know how old that person is today,
因为我们不知道第一代[延长寿命的]
because we don’t know how long it’s going to take
疗法要多久才会出现
to get these first-generation therapies.
但无论是年龄
But irrespective of that age,
我声称的第一人会活到一千年的人
I’m claiming that the first person to live to 1,000 —
–当然 排除全球性灾难 –
subject of course, to, you know, global catastrophes —
实际上大概只有比我说的那位活到一百五十岁的人年轻十岁左右
is actually, probably, only about 10 years younger than the first 150-year-old.
很令人值得想一想的结论吧好
And that’s quite a thought.
接下来我要用这个讲座所剩下的时间
Alright, so finally I’m going to spend the rest of the talk,
我的七个半分钟来谈谈我所谓的第一个步骤
my last seven-and-a-half minutes, on step one;
就是我们如何得到这第一批延长寿命的适中治疗
namely, how do we actually get to this moderate amount of life extension
使我们可以达到长寿逃逸速度?
that will allow us to get to escape velocity?
而为了做到这一点 我需要说一点点关于老鼠的事
And in order to do that, I need to talk about mice a little bit.
我有一个对强健人类再生相应的里程碑
I have a corresponding milestone to robust human rejuvenation.
我不是很富有想象力地称它为强健老鼠再生[的治疗科技]
I’m calling it “robust mouse rejuvenation,” not very imaginatively.
这是什么呢?
And this is what it is.
就是我们要采用一种长寿的老鼠
I say we’re going to take a long-lived strain of mouse,
就等于平均可以活三年左右的老鼠
which basically means mice that live about three years on average.
我们完全没有碰过它们 直到它们已经两岁
We do exactly nothing to them until they’re already two years old.
然后我们对它们做了一大堆的东西
And then we do a whole bunch of stuff to them,
用那些治疗方法使它们延长寿命
and with those therapies, we get them to live,
想办法让他们平均活到五岁因此
on average, to their fifth birthday.
换句话说 我们开始把这些老鼠治疗后 添加了两年寿命
So, in other words, we add two years —
–已经是它们剩余寿命的
we treble their remaining lifespan,
三倍
starting from the point that we started the therapies.
接下来的问题是 到底什么时候
The question then is, what would that actually mean for the time frame
我们讨论的这些才能用在人类身上呢?
until we get to the milestone I talked about earlier for humans?
我们现在可以 正如我已经解释过
Which we can now, as I’ve explained,
把它称为强健人类再生 或长寿逃逸速度第二
equivalently call either robust human rejuvenation or longevity escape velocity.
从我们得到的第一只老鼠时开始
Secondly, what does it mean for the public’s perception
公众对多久我们才能获得这些东西
of how long it’s going to take for us to get to those things,
对这些科技的发展有什么影响?
starting from the time we get the mice?
第三 问题是 它对多少人想要避免老化的人们起作用?
And thirdly, the question is, what will it do
这些科技有什么影响呢?
to actually how much people want it?
我的看法是
And it seems to me that the first question
第一个问题完全是生物学的问题
is entirely a biology question,
这是非常难回答
and it’s extremely hard to answer.
一个人必须非常投机
One has to be very speculative,
和我的许多同事会说 我们不应该做这种推测
and many of my colleagues would say that we should not do this speculation,
我们应该简单地保持沉默 直到我们了解更多
that we should simply keep our counsel until we know more.
我觉得这是一派胡言
I say that’s nonsense.
保持沉默 绝对是不负责任的
I say we absolutely are irresponsible if we stay silent on this.
我们需要给我们最好的猜测有时间框架
We need to give our best guess as to the time frame,
以便使人们有个概念
in order to give people a sense of proportion
使他们能够评估他们的优先事项所以
so that they can assess their priorities.
我说 从我们应用强健老鼠再生的科技
So, I say that we have a 50/50 chance
的十五年内 我们有百分之五十的机会
of reaching this RHR milestone,
实现强健人类再生科技
robust human rejuvenation, within 15 years from the point
这个重要的里程碑
that we get to robust mouse rejuvenation.
强健老鼠再生的科技应用的十五年内
15 years from the robust mouse.
人们的看法可能会变好
The public’s perception will probably be somewhat better than that.
因为人们往往低估的科学进步的困难性因此
The public tends to underestimate how difficult scientific things are.
他们很可能会认为只需五年
So they’ll probably think it’s five years away.
他们可能是错误的 但实际上这不太重要最后
They’ll be wrong, but that actually won’t matter too much.
当然 我认为公众对于老龄化
And finally, of course, I think it’s fair to say
的看法这么的矛盾的主要原因
that a large part of the reason why the public is so ambivalent about aging now
是我刚才谈到的全球恍惚的应对策略
is the global trance I spoke about earlier, the coping strategy.
这将是历史性的一刻
That will be history at this point,
因为公众将不再认为老化是人类不可避免的
because it will no longer be possible to believe that aging is inevitable in humans,
因为它已经非常有效地在小老鼠体内被推迟因此
since it’s been postponed so very effectively in mice.
我们很可能会看到人们的观念有了巨大变化
So we’re likely to end up with a very strong change in people’s attitudes,
而这将会具有极大的影响
and of course that has enormous implications.
为了现在要告诉你我们要如何得到这些老鼠
So in order to tell you now how we’re going to get these mice,
我要补充一点我对老化的描述
I’m going to add a little bit to my description of aging.
我会用“损害”这个词来表示
I’m going to use this word “damage”
所有由新陈代谢中阶段造成的东西
to denote these intermediate things that are caused by metabolism
而最终导致不可避免的死亡
and that eventually cause pathology.
因为这个关键的是
Because the critical thing about this
尽管这些损害只有在最终才会造成不可避免的死亡
is that even though the damage only eventually causes pathology,
它们是从我们出生之前就开始累积的东西 我们整个人生它们都不断累积
the damage itself is caused ongoing-ly throughout life, starting before we’re born.
但是这些损害不是新陈代谢的一部分
But it is not part of metabolism itself.
这一点对我们来说是有益的
And this turns out to be useful.
因为这样我们可以重新绘制我们的原始图
Because we can re-draw our original diagram this way.
我们可以说 老年学和老年病学之间根本区别就是
We can say that, fundamentally, the difference between gerontology and geriatrics
老年学试图抑制[避免]新陈代谢[的副作用]
is that gerontology tries to inhibit the rate
这些“损害”累积的速度
at which metabolism lays down this damage.
我等一下会准确地解释我所谓
And I’m going to explain exactly what damage is
的“损害”在生物学里指的是什么
in concrete biological terms in a moment.
老年病学呢 就试图阻止[医治]
And geriatricians try to hold back the sands of time
这些“损害”所带来的的后果
by stopping the damage converting into pathology.
比如说死亡 这是一个败仗
And the reason it’s a losing battle
因为损害只会继续积累
is because the damage is continuing to accumulate.
如果我们这样看的话 有第三种办法
So there’s a third approach, if we look at it this way.
我们可以把它叫做工程方法
We can call it the “engineering approach,”
我声称工程方法是在人类的科技 技术范围之内
and I claim that the engineering approach is within range.
该工程方法不会干预任何[我们身体内的新陈代谢的]过程
The engineering approach does not intervene in any processes.
它不会干预这个过程 也不干预这一个这很好
It does not intervene in this process or this one.
因为这意味着这不是一个败仗
And that’s good because it means that it’s not a losing battle,
并且它是在我们现在的[技术]范围之内能够做到的事情
and it’s something that we are within range of being able to do,
因为它不涉及对人类进化改善
because it doesn’t involve improving on evolution.
该工程方法只是表示
The engineering approach simply says,
“我们定期修复所有的这些不同类型的损害
“Let’s go and periodically repair all of these various types of damage —
–他们不一定完全修复[这些损害]
not necessarily repair them completely, but repair them quite a lot,
但修复的足以让我们继续避免
so that we keep the level of damage down below the threshold
一个会造成导致死亡或生病的程度 ”
that must exist, that causes it to be pathogenic.”
我们知道这个门槛程度的存在
We know that this threshold exists,
因为我们只有当我们在中年时才会得到与年龄有关的疾病
because we don’t get age-related diseases until we’re in middle age,
即使损害已经从我们诞生时就开始累积了
even though the damage has been accumulating since before we were born.
为什么我说 [工程方法]在人类近期的技术范围内呢?这[图片]基本上就是原因
Why do I say that we’re in range? Well, this is basically it.
这图片的重点在底部
The point about this slide is actually the bottom.
如果我们试图说新陈代谢的那个部分才是对老化过程有着重要的影响
If we try to say which bits of metabolism are important for aging,
那我们可能要在这里呆一整晚
we will be here all night, because basically all of metabolism
因为基本上新陈代谢的每个组件都对老化有影响
is important for aging in one way or another.
这个列表仅仅是一个例子 它是不完整的
This list is just for illustration; it is incomplete.
右边的列表也一样不完整
The list on the right is also incomplete.
它们只是一种与年龄
It’s a list of types of pathology that are age-related,
有关的病的列表
and it’s just an incomplete list.
但这中间的我主张是完整的列表
But I would like to claim to you that this list in the middle is actually complete —
所有代谢副作用有资格被称为“损害”
this is the list of types of thing that qualify as damage,
最终会导致病理[不可避免的死亡]
side effects of metabolism that cause pathology in the end,
或可能造成病理类型
or that might cause pathology.
而这列表只有七个当然
And there are only seven of them.
这七个是类别
They’re categories of things, of course, but there’s only seven of them.
但只有七个细胞损失 染色体突变 在线粒体基因突变等首先
Cell loss, mutations in chromosomes, mutations in the mitochondria and so on.
我想给你们解释一个为什么我认为这份列表是完全的当然
First of all, I’d like to give you an argument for why that list is complete.
我们可以使用生物学的角度来争论可以说
Of course one can make a biological argument.
好 我们是什么做的?
One can say, “OK, what are we made of?”
我们是由细胞和细胞间的东西
We’re made of cells and stuff between cells.
“损害”可以累积在那里?
What can damage accumulate in?
答案是 长期存在的分子里
The answer is: long-lived molecules,
因为如果一个短暂寿命的分子遭到破坏 它将会在寿命完了后被销毁
because if a short-lived molecule undergoes damage, but then the molecule is destroyed —
–就像蛋白质被水解摧毁 – 累积的损害也一起被销毁了
like by a protein being destroyed by proteolysis — then the damage is gone, too.
所以“损害”累积的地方一定是很长寿命的分子里
It’s got to be long-lived molecules.
因此[因为这个理由的很大的可能性] 这七个东西 都是由老年学士很久以前就讨论过了
So, these seven things were all under discussion in gerontology a long time ago
这是相当好的消息 因为这意味着
and that is pretty good news, because it means that,
尽管我们在这二十年里对生物学有着很大的成就
you know, we’ve come a long way in biology in these 20 years,
这份列表还只有七样东西是一个非常好的迹象
so the fact that we haven’t extended this list
因为它显示它已不可再增加了
is a pretty good indication that there’s no extension to be done.
这个消息比你们想象的更好
However, it’s better than that; we actually know how to fix them all,
因为我们在原则上知道如何在老鼠里解决所有这些七样东西 – 我所谓的原则指的是
in mice, in principle — and what I mean by in principle is,
我们或许可以真正实现在十年内这些修复治疗
we probably can actually implement these fixes within a decade.
其中有些[七样里的]部分已经落实了 尤其是在顶部的
Some of them are partially implemented already, the ones at the top.
我[在这里]没有时间一个一个的解释
I haven’t got time to go through them at all, but
但我的结论是 如果我们能够得到适合的资金
my conclusion is that, if we can actually get suitable funding for this,
那么我们或许可以在只有十年内成功发展强健的大规模人类再生[治疗科技]
then we can probably develop robust mouse rejuvenation in only 10 years,
但我们确实需要认真想想它
but we do need to get serious about it.
我们需要真正开始尝试
We do need to really start trying.
对于观众里的生物学家
So of course, there are some biologists in the audience,
你们可能有一些问题 我会回答你们
and I want to give some answers to some of the questions that you may have.
你可能对这个讲座有些不满
You may have been dissatisfied with this talk,
但你必须去阅读这些[已经刊登在研究杂志]内容
but fundamentally you have to go and read this stuff.
我已经刊登了对老化很多的资料;
I’ve published a great deal on this;
而且我就凭着这些研究为基础对人类老化治疗科技持乐观态度
I cite the experimental work on which my optimism is based,
里头的细节还有很多
and there’s quite a lot of detail there.
这些细节使我对我在这里预测的
The detail is what makes me confident
相当挑战性的时间表更加有信心
of my rather aggressive time frames that I’m predicting here.
如果你觉得我错了
So if you think that I’m wrong,
我希望你能看了这些资料以及研究报考后再来解释为什么你认为我是错的
you’d better damn well go and find out why you think I’m wrong.
最主要的是你不应该相信
And of course the main thing is that you shouldn’t trust people
自称是老年医学的人
who call themselves gerontologists because,
因为在任何领域里
as with any radical departure from previous thinking within a particular field,
如果有激进的思想变化 主流的人一定有点抵抗
you know, you expect people in the mainstream to be a bit resistant
而且不认真的对待它所以
and not really to take it seriously.
你必须真正做好准备工作
So, you know, you’ve got to actually do your homework,
才能了解这是否属实
in order to understand whether this is true.
我们在结束前就讲讲几件事
And we’ll just end with a few things.
有一件事就是 你将会在下届会议听一个家伙说起以前
One thing is, you know, you’ll be hearing from a guy in the next session
当他说他可以测序人类基因组时 人们是怎么的回答他
who said some time ago that he could sequence the human genome in half no time,
每个人都说:“这是不可能的 ”
and everyone said, “Well, it’s obviously impossible.”
可是你也知道
And you know what happened.
这确实发生了
So, you know, this does happen.
我们有不同的策略 – 有玛士撒拉奖
We have various strategies — there’s the Methuselah Mouse Prize,
这基本上是一个鼓励创新
which is basically an incentive to innovate,
做你认为是可行的[方法延长寿命]
and to do what you think is going to work,
如果成功的话 你就可以赢钱
and you get money for it if you win.
还有一个计划建议组织一个机构
There’s a proposal to actually put together an institute.
可是这将会需要点钱
This is what’s going to take a bit of money.
我的意思是 你看我们在伊拉克战争上耗这么久浪费了多少钱?
But, I mean, look — how long does it take to spend that on the war in Iraq?
不会再久吧
Not very long. OK.
好吧(众笑)
(Laughter)
这些研究的钱的来源最好是[私人]慈善 因为利润会分散生物技术研究公司[的注意力]
It’s got to be philanthropic, because profits distract biotech,
但我认为它[我所提出的这些时间表和延长人类寿命的治疗科技的发展蓝图]]基本上有着百分之九十的机会成功
but it’s basically got a 90 percent chance, I think, of succeeding in this.
因为我们已经知道应该怎么做
And I think we know how to do it. And I’ll stop there.
我就说到这里谢谢您
Thank you.
(鼓掌)
(Applause)
克里斯安德森:好 我不知道大家有没有问题
Chris Anderson: OK. I don’t know if there’s going to be any questions
但我想我会给他们机会观众:
but I thought I would give people the chance.
既然你在谈论老龄化 并试图战胜它
Audience: Since you’ve been talking about aging and trying to defeat it,
那为什么你看上去就像一位老人呢?
why is it that you make yourself appear like an old man?
(众笑)
(Laughter)
奥布里德格雷:因为我是一个老人 其实我是已经是一百五十八岁
AG: Because I am an old man. I am actually 158.
(众笑)
(Laughter)
(鼓掌)观众:
(Applause)
这个星球上的物种进化了免疫系统
Audience: Species on this planet have evolved with immune systems
以对抗各种的疾病 使个人活到足够生育的年龄不过
to fight off all the diseases so that individuals live long enough to procreate.
据我所知 所有的物种都进化到实际会死亡因此
However, as far as I know, all the species have evolved to actually die,
当细胞分裂时 端粒酶变得越来越短了 最终物种死亡那么
so when cells divide, the telomerase get shorter, and eventually species die.
为什么进化过程似乎已选定‘针对’永存不朽?
So, why does — evolution has — seems to have selected against immortality,
或者那只是进化过程还不完整?
when it is so advantageous, or is evolution just incomplete?
奥布里德格雷:好!谢谢你问一个我可以
AG: Brilliant. Thank you for asking a question
用一个没有争议的答案来回答你
that I can answer with an uncontroversial answer.
我要告诉你主流思想的答案来回答你的问题
I’m going to tell you the genuine mainstream answer to your question,
我也恰巧同意这个答案那就是
which I happen to agree with,
不 老化不是一个进化过程的后果
which is that, no, aging is not a product of selection, evolution;
只是进化过程所忽视的后果
[aging] is simply a product of evolutionary neglect.
换句话说 我们会老化 因为没有老化的话比较难;
In other words, we have aging because it’s hard work not to have aging;
[因为]你需要更多的遗传途径 你的基因需要变得更复杂
you need more genetic pathways, more sophistication in your genes
以便让你老的比较慢些
in order to age more slowly,
而且你越想要把老化推迟 你[的身体的进化过程]就越需要面对这些难题因此
and that carries on being true the longer you push it out.
到进化不重要的程度
So, to the extent that evolution doesn’t matter,
不在乎是个体
doesn’t care whether genes are passed on by individuals,
或则生活的很长的一段时间
living a long time or by procreation,
或则靠生育种种方法来把基因传给下一代 有一定的调节
there’s a certain amount of modulation of that,
这就是为什么不同物种有不同的寿命
which is why different species have different lifespans,
但是这就是为什么没有永存的物种
but that’s why there are no immortal species.
克里斯安德森:这些基因并不关心
CA: The genes don’t care but we do?
但我们关心?奥布里德格雷:
AG: That’s right.
是的观众:您好 我听说在过去的二十年中
Audience: Hello. I read somewhere that in the last 20 years,
基本上这个星球上的人的平均寿命增长了十年
the average lifespan of basically anyone on the planet has grown by 10 years.
如果以这个资料推断 如果我没有在我的摩托车上发生任何事故
If I project that, that would make me think
我将能够活到一百二十岁
that I would live until 120 if I don’t crash on my motorbike.
这意味着 我将会变成你所谓能够活到一千年研究课题之一?
That means that I’m one of your subjects to become a 1,000-year-old?
奥布里德格雷:如果你瘦一点儿
AG: If you lose a bit of weight.
(众笑)
(Laughter)
你的数据有点出入
Your numbers are a bit out.
标准的数字是
The standard numbers are that lifespans
寿命已经在每十年增长一至两年因此
have been growing at between one and two years per decade.
它不是你觉得或希望的那么好不过
So, it’s not quite as good as you might think, you might hope.
我打算尽快将它快速发展到每年寿命多一年观众:
But I intend to move it up to one year per year as soon as possible.
我被告知 许多我们成人的脑细胞
Audience: I was told that many of the brain cells we have as adults
实际上在胚胎里是就有了
are actually in the human embryo,
而脑细胞能活八十年左右的时间
and that the brain cells last 80 years or so.
如果事实的确如此
If that is indeed true,
在生理的角度看 对再生[科技]的世界会有什么影响?
biologically are there implications in the world of rejuvenation?
如果在我身体的所有细胞
If there are cells in my body that live all 80 years,
可以活到八十年 而不是一个典型的在两个月就死去的细胞?
as opposed to a typical, you know, couple of months?
奥布里德格雷:当然 这是技术问题
AG: There are technical implications certainly.
基本上我们需要做的是取代大脑
Basically what we need to do is replace cells
的几个领域的细胞的流失率
in those few areas of the brain that lose cells at a respectable rate,
尤其是神经元 但我们不想比
especially neurons, but we don’t want to replace them
那流失率更快地取代任何细胞
any faster than that — or not much faster anyway,
–因为更换地太快会降低认知功能
because replacing them too fast would degrade cognitive function.
我刚刚说的没有不老化物种
What I said about there being no non-aging species earlier on
是有点过于简单化
was a little bit of an oversimplification.
有些物种没有老化 例如水螅
There are species that have no aging — Hydra for example —
–因为他们没有一个神经系统
but they do it by not having a nervous system —
–也没有任何用于老化的的细胞
and not having any tissues in fact that rely for their function
却有长寿的细胞组织
on very long-lived cells.

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