ADM-201 dump PMP dumps pdf SSCP exam materials CBAP exam sample questions

气候危机比金融危机更亟待解决 – 译学馆
未登录,请登录后再发表信息
最新评论 (0)
播放视频

气候危机比金融危机更亟待解决

A provocative way to finance the fight against climate change | Michael Metcalfe

我们能否做到不惜一切代价来应对气候变化?
Will we do whatever it takes to tackle climate change?
我不是作为环保倡议者来思考这个问题
I come at this question not as a green campaigner,
事实上 我对回收利用不抱希望
in fact, I confess to be rather hopeless at recycling.
我是一名专业的金融政策观察者
I come at it as a professional observer of financial policy making
同时也想知道后世将如何评价我们
and someone that wonders how history will judge us.
将来有一天
One day,
我爷爷的这枚戒指
this ring that belonged to my grandfather
会传给我儿子查理
will pass to my son, Charlie.
我很想知道我儿子那一代人
And I wonder what his generation
和他们的下一代
and perhaps the one that follows
将如何度过他们的人生
will make of the two lives this ring has worked.
我的爷爷是位矿工
My grandfather was a coal miner.
在他那个年代
In his time,
靠燃烧化石燃料获得能源 并推动经济发展
burning fossil fuels for energy and for allowing economies to develop
是可以接受的
was accepted.
尽管今天我们知道那样做是不对的
We know now that that is not the case
因为煤炭燃烧会产生温室气体
because of the greenhouse gases that coal produces.
但如今
But today,
恐怕我所从事的行业 会被认为
I fear it’s the industry in which I work that will be judged more harshly
对气候的危害更大
because of its impact on the climate —
以至于我们会背负更重的骂名
more harshly than my grandfather’s industry, even.
刚刚说过了 我在银行业工作
I work, of course, in the banking industry,
而这个行业因为2008年金融危机永垂史册
which will be remembered for its crisis in 2008 —
这场危机将政府的注意力和财政支出
a crisis that diverted the attention and finances of governments
从真正重要的事情上转移了
away from some really, really important promises,
比如政府在2009年 哥本哈根气候大会上作出的承诺
like promises made at the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009
每年调动1000亿美元
to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year
帮助发展中国家停止使用化石燃料
to help developing countries move away from burning fossil fuels
转而使用更清洁的能源
and transition to using cleaner energy.
这一承诺早已岌岌可危
That promise is already in jeopardy.
这是个很严重的问题
And that’s a real problem,
因为实现能源清洁化
because that transition to cleaner energy needs to happen
刻不容缓
sooner rather than later.
首先
Firstly,
温室气体一旦产生
because greenhouse gases, once released,
会在大气中停留数十年
stay in the atmosphere for decades.
其次
And secondly,
如果今天发展中国家使用 化石燃料建立电网
if a developing economy builds its power grid around fossil fuels today,
将来再想转变 代价会更为不菲
it’s going to be way more costly to change later on.
因此将来回顾历史
So for the climate,
会发现这场金融危机来得真不凑巧
history may judge that the banking crisis happened
对解决气候问题不利
at just the wrong time.
但我们倒不必过于悲观
The story need not be this gloomy, though.
三年前
Three years ago,
我呼吁政府使用
I argued that governments could use the tools
挽救金融系统的工具
deployed to save the financial system
来应对其他全球性挑战
to meet other global challenges.
随着时间推移 这一呼声并未减弱 而是越来越强
And these arguments are getting stronger, not weaker, with time.
让我们来回忆一下有些什么样的工具
Let’s take a brief reminder of what those tools looked like.
2008年金融危机发生时
When the financial crisis hit in 2008,
美国和英国的中央银行
the central banks of the US and UK
开始购买本国政府发行的债券
began buying bonds issued by their own governments
这项政策叫做“量化宽松”
in a policy known as “quantitative easing.”
当这些债券到期时
Depending on what happens to those bonds when they mature,
我们发现这就是在增印钞票
this is money printing by another name.
印的还真不少
And boy, did they print.
单单美国就相当于增发了4万亿美元
The US alone created four trillion dollars’ worth of its own currency.
而且不单单是美国一家
This was not done in isolation.
国际货币基金组织的188个成员国
In a remarkable act of cooperation,
紧密团结 精诚合作
the 188 countries that make up the International Monetary Fund, the IMF,
相当于增发了2500亿美元的货币
agreed to issue 250 billion dollars’ worth of their own currency —
以“特别提款权”的形式
the Special Drawing Right —
从而在世界范围内增加储备
to boost reserves around the world.
当金融危机蔓延至欧洲
When the financial crisis moved to Europe,
欧洲中央银行行长马里奥·德拉吉
the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi,
承诺“不惜一切代价”
promised “to do whatever it takes.”
他们确实也这么做了
And they did.
日本银行也做出了同样的承诺
The Bank of Japan repeated those words — that exact same commitment —
“不惜一切代价” 来复苏经济
to do “whatever it takes” to reflate their economy.
这两个例子中
In both cases,
所谓的“代价”就是增发数以万亿计的纸币
“whatever it takes” meant trillions of dollars more
这一政策今天还在继续
in money-printing policies that continue today.
这说明
What this shows
在面对某些全球性挑战时
is that when faced with some global challenges,
政策制定者能够在危急时刻集体行动
policy makers are able to act collectively, with urgency,
剑走偏锋 制定出类似增发货币这样的政策
and run the risks of unconventional policies like money printing.
好 让我们回到开始的问题:
So, let’s go back to that original question:
我们可以增发货币用于气候融资吗?
Can we print money for climate finance?
三年前
Three years ago,
以这样的方式使用资金是一种禁忌
the idea of using money in this way was something of a taboo.
一旦你的观念被转变
Once you break down and dismantle the idea
不再认为钱是有限资源
that money is a finite resource,
政府很快就会就会被人民的需求淹没
governments can quickly get overwhelmed by demands from their people
为了各种原因不停增发货币:
to print more and more money for other causes:
教育、医疗、福利
education, health care, welfare —
甚至国防
even defense.
而增发货币会带来可怕后果 历史上有很多例子
And there are some truly terrible historical examples of money printing —
当然我指的是滥发货币
uncontrolled money printing —
会导致恶性通货膨胀
leading to hyperinflation.
回想一下1930年的魏玛共和国
Think: Weimar Republic in 1930;
以及更近一些的 2008年的津巴布韦
Zimbabwe more recently, in 2008,
生活必需品比如面包价格 每天翻番
when the prices of basic goods like bread are doubling every day.
但这一切都在引发公众广泛讨论
But all of this is moving the public debate forward,
以至于现在人们公开讨论增发货币
so much so, that money printing for the people is now discussed openly
在金融媒体上 甚至在某些政治宣言中
in the financial media, and even in some political manifestos.
但更为重要的是
But it’s important the debate doesn’t stop here,
这些讨论并未局限于增发本国货币
with printing national currencies.
由于气候变化是全球性问题
Because climate change is a shared global problem,
我们有特别紧迫的理由
there are some really compelling reasons
来增发国际货币
why we should be printing that international currency
支持国际货币基金组织
that’s issued by the IMF,
应对气候问题
to fund it.
特别提款权 也就是SDR
The Special Drawing Right, or SDR,
是国际货币基金组织的电子记账单位
is the IMF’s electronic unit of account
用于政府间的资金转移
that governments use to transfer funds amongst each other.
可以把它想象成一个对等式支付网络
Think of it as a peer-to-peer payment network,
就像比特币一样 只不过用在政府间
like Bitcoin, but for governments.
而且它真正具有全球性
And it’s truly global.
188个成员国都有SDR配额
Each of the 188 members of the IMF hold SDR quotas
作为本国外汇储备的一部分
as part of their foreign exchange reserves.
它们是国家的财富储备
These are national stores of wealth
可以帮助国家应对货币危机
that countries keep to protect themselves against currency crises.
正是这全球性的特点
And that global nature is why,
使得国际货币基金组织在2009年
at the height of the financial crisis in 2009,
也就是金融危机最严重的时候 增发了2500亿美元
the IMF issued those extra 250 billion dollars —
因为这是一次全球性的集体行动
because it served as a collective global action
一举保护了大大小小的国家免受冲击
that safeguarded countries large and small in one fell swoop.
但接下来
But here —
才是真正耐人寻味的部分
here’s the intriguing part.
2009年增发的SDR 其中一大半
More than half of those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009 —
大约有1500亿美元
150 billion dollars’ worth —
分配给了发达国家
went to developed market countries who, for the most part,
但它们中大部分 并不太需要这些外汇储备
have a modest need for these foreign exchange reserves,
因为这些国家执行浮动汇率制度
because they have flexible exchange rates.
因此这些2009年增发的配额
So those extra reserves that were printed in 2009,
对于发达国家来说
in the end, for developed market countries at least,
并没有太大意义
weren’t really needed.
直到今天也没有被使用
And they remain unused today.
于是我产生了一个想法
So here’s an idea.
首先
As a first step,
为什么我们不将这些2009年增发的
why don’t we start spending those unused,
尚未使用的特别提款权
those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009,
用来应对气候变化?
to combat climate change?
比如
They could, for example,
用这笔钱购买联合国发行的绿色气候基金
be used to buy bonds issued by the UN’s Green Climate Fund.
绿色气候基金设立于2009年
This was a fund created in 2009,
依据哥本哈根大会气候协定设立
following that climate agreement in Copenhagen.
其目的是为了发展中国家筹集资金
And it was designed to channel funds towards developing countries
以支持他们的气候项目
to meet their climate projects.
作为同类基金中最成功的一只
It’s been one of the most successful funds of its type,
它已经筹集了近百亿美元
raising almost 10 billion dollars.
如果我们能将增发的SDR使用起来
But if we use those extra SDRs that were issued,
就可以帮助各国政府回归正途
it helps governments get back on track,
实现因金融风暴而拖欠的
to meet that promise of 100 billion dollars a year
每年1000亿美元的承诺
that was derailed by the financial crisis.
除此以外
It could also —
我们可以将其视为一次测试
it could also serve as a test case.
如果这么使用SDR不会造成恶性通货膨胀
If the inflationary consequences of using SDRs in this way are benign,
那么我们有理由假设
it could be used to justify
如果每五年增发一次SDR
the additional, extra issuance of SDRs, say, every five years,
当然 这也需要发达国家承诺
again, with the commitment
将自己得到的配额
that developed-market countries would direct their share
直接转给
of the new reserves
绿色气候基金
to the Green Climate Fund.
这样发行国际货币 比发行本国货币
Printing international money in this way has several advantages
有更多好处
over printing national currencies.
首先很明显
The first is it’s really easy to argue
将这笔钱花在应对气候变化上 对所有人都有益
that spending money to mitigate climate change benefits everyone.
没有哪个国家会因为多印了些钞票而更加得利
No one section of society benefits from the printing press over another.
因此大家不用考虑竞争的问题
That problem of competing claims is mitigated.
也可以这么说
It’s also fair to say
正因为众多国家一致同意增发SDR
that because it takes so many countries to agree to issue these extra SDRs,
这件事就不太容易失控
it’s highly unlikely that money printing would get out of control.
最终 我们看到的是一项全球性的集体行动
What you end up with is a collective, global action
并受全球各国监管
aimed — and it’s controlled global action —
瞄准的是全球共同利益
aimed at a global good.
此外
And,
因为我们已经了解了货币发行的机制
as we’ve learned with the money-printing schemes,
任何问题和顾虑 都可以通过规则来排除
whatever concerns we have can be allayed by rules.
比如说
So, for example,
可以限制每五年所发行的SDR的总金额
the issuance of these extra SDRs every five years could be capped,
使其不超过全球外汇储备
such that this international currency is never more than five percent
总量的百分之五
of global foreign exchange reserves.
这点很重要
That’s important because it would allay
因为这样会减轻美国的担忧
well, let’s say, the ridiculous concerns that the US might have
他们老担心增发的SDR
that the SDR could ever challenge the dollar’s dominant role
会挑战美元在国际金融市场的主导位置
in international finance.
实际上
And in fact,
在这种体制下SDR有可能对美元产生的
I think the only thing that the SDR would likely steal from the dollar
唯一的影响
under this scheme
就是盗用美元的外号 绿钞票
is its nickname, the “greenback.”
因为即使有发行限额的规定
Because even with that cap in place,
国际货币基金组织 依旧会追踪其发行状况
the IMF could have followed up its issuance —
无论是2009年的2500亿
its massive issuance of SDRs in 2009 —
还是2014年追加的2000亿
with a further 200 billion dollars of SDRs in 2014.
因此从理论上说
So hypothetically,
发达国家能为绿色气候基金
that would mean that developed countries could have contributed
贡献价值约3000亿美元
up to 300 billion dollars’ worth of SDRs
的特别提款权
to the Green Climate Fund.
金额是该基金目前筹款额的30倍
That’s 30 times what it has today.
而且
And you know,
尽管这听起来已经相当可观
as spectacular as that sounds,
却刚刚才有一点“不惜一切代价”的味道
it’s only just beginning to look like “whatever it takes.”
想想看我们可以用这笔钱完成多大的壮举
And just to think what amazing things could be done with that money,
举个例子:
consider this:
在2009年
in 2009,
挪威承诺给巴西10亿美元的外汇储备
Norway promised one billion dollars of its reserves to Brazil
只要巴西能达成减少森林砍伐的目标
if they followed through on their goals on deforestation.
这一计划实施十年时间
That program has since delivered a 70 percent reduction in deforestation
已经减少了百分之七十的森林砍伐
in the past decade.
相当于减少了32亿吨二氧化碳排放
That’s saving 3.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions,
相当于让全美国所有的汽车
which is the equivalent of taking all American cars off the roads
停止行使整整三年
for three whole years.
想象一下
So what could we do
如果全球再有三百个 类似的按劳分配的气候项目
with 300 other pay-for-performance climate projects like that,
该是多么棒的一件事
organized on a global scale?
相当于让整整一代人的车辆停驶
We could take cars off the roads for a generation.
因此
So,
不要再纠结我们是否有经济能力来应对气候变化
let’s not quibble about whether we can afford to fund climate change.
真正的问题是:
The real question is:
我们是否足够关心下一代
Do we care enough about future generations
愿意冒很大的风险去拯救气候
to take the very same policy risks we took to save the financial system?
毕竟
After all,
我们能够这么做
we could do it,
我们曾经成功过
we did do it
我们还将继续努力
and we are doing it today.
我们必须真的 不惜一切代价去做
We must, must, must do “whatever it takes.”
谢谢大家
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)

发表评论

译制信息
视频概述

资助气候变化之战的妙招:只有一个地球,要不惜一切代价保护环境

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Ljimnn

审核员

赖皮

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoMpbL_Fsig

相关推荐