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健康的经济应该以繁荣为目的,而不是增长

A healthy economy should be designed to thrive, not grow | Kate Raworth

Have you ever watched a baby learning to crawl?
你看过婴儿学爬行吗?
Because as any parent knows, it’s gripping.
任何一位家长都知道这很吸引人
First, they wriggle about on the floor,
首先他们在地板上扭动
usually backwards,
通常是向后扭
but then they drag themselves forwards,
然后他们把自己往前拖
and then they pull themselves up to stand,
再用力向上拉 使自己站起来
and we all clap.
我们都会为此鼓掌
And that simple motion of forwards and upwards,
这种向前 向上的简单运动
it’s the most basic direction of progress we humans recognize.
是我们人类认识到的最基本的进步方向
We tell it in our story of evolution as well,
进化理论也这样说
from our lolloping ancestors to Homo erectus, finally upright,
从我们笨拙前行的祖先到最终直立行走的直立人
to Homo sapiens, depicted, always a man,
到智人时 描绘的总是一个人的形象
always mid-stride.
总是向前半跨步
So no wonder we so readily believe
难怪我们那么容易相信
that economic progress will take this very same shape,
经济发展将呈现与这条不断上升的增长线
this ever-rising line of growth.
相同的形态
It’s time to think again,
现在是时候重新思考
to reimagine the shape of progress,
重新设想进步的形式了
because today, we have economies
因为今天 我们有需要增长的经济
that need to grow, whether or not they make us thrive,
而不管它们是否让我们繁荣
and what we need, especially in the richest countries,
但尤其在最富裕的国家
are economies that make us thrive
我们需要的是让我们繁荣的经济
whether or not they grow.
而不管它们是否增长
Yes, it’s a little flippant word
是的 这是一句略显轻率的话
hiding a profound shift in mindset,
隐藏着思维方式的深刻转变
but I believe this is the shift we need to make
但我相信如果我们人类想在本世纪实现共同繁荣
if we, humanity, are going to thrive here together this century.
就需要做出这种转变
So where did this obsession with growth come from?
那么这种对经济增长的痴迷到底是从何而来?
Well, GDP, gross domestic product,
国内生产总值GDP
it’s just the total cost of goods and services
只是一个经济体一年内
sold in an economy in a year.
销售的商品和服务的总成本
It was invented in the 1930s,
GDP这一名词诞生于20世纪30年代
but it very soon became the overriding goal of policymaking,
但它很快就成为了政策制定的首要目标
so much so that even today, in the richest of countries,
甚至在今天依然如此
governments think that the solution to their economic problems
在最富有的国家 政府仍然认为
lies in more growth.
经济问题的解决办法在于更多的增长
Just how that happened
W.W.罗斯托1960年的经典之作
is best told through the 1960 classic by W.W. Rostow.
最能说明这是怎么回事
I love it so much, I have a first-edition copy.
我太喜欢这本书了 我有第一版
“The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto.”
《经济增长的阶段:非共产主义宣言》
[Laughter]
[笑声]
You can just smell the politics, huh?
你能闻到政治气息 是吗?
And Rostow tells us that all economies
罗斯托告诉我们 所有经济体
need to pass through five stages of growth:
都需要经历五个增长阶段
first, traditional society, where a nation’s output is limited
首先是传统社会阶段 一个国家的产出受到
by its technology, its institutions and mindset;
其技术 制度和思维方式的限制
but then the preconditions for takeoff,
接下来是经济腾飞的准备阶段
where we get the beginnings of a banking industry,
这阶段银行业和工作机械化
the mechanization of work
开始出现
and the belief that growth is necessary for something beyond itself,
人们开始相信增长的必要已经超越了增长本身
like national dignity or a better life for the children;
比如增长是为了国家尊严 为了儿童更好的生活
then takeoff, where compound interest is built into the economy’s institutions
然后是腾飞阶段 这时复利被纳入经济体制
and growth becomes the normal condition;
增长成为常态
fourth is the drive to maturity where you can have any industry you want,
第四是走向成熟阶段 无论你的自然资源基础如何
no matter your natural resource base;
你都可以拥有任何你想要的行业
and the fifth and final stage, the age of high-mass consumption
第五也是最后一个阶段 大众高消费阶段
where people can buy all the consumer goods they want,
人们可以买到他们想要的所有消费品
like bicycles and sewing machines —
如自行车和缝纫机
this was 1960, remember.
那可是1960年 记得吗?
Well, you can hear the implicit airplane metaphor in this story,
你可以在这个故事中听到含蓄的飞机隐喻
but this plane is like no other,
但这架飞机与其他飞机不同
because it can never be allowed to land.
因为它永远不能降落
Rostow left us flying into the sunset of mass consumerism,
罗斯托任我们飞向大众消费主义的落日
and he knew it.
他知道这一点
As he wrote,
正如他所写
“And then the question beyond,
“接下来还有个问题
where history offers us only fragments.
历史没有给我们提供多少信息
What to do when the increase in real income itself loses its charm?”
当实际收入增长本身失去魅力时该怎么办? ”
He asked that question, but he never answered it, and here’s why.
他问了那个问题 但他从未回答过 以下是原因
The year was 1960,
那一年是1960年
he was an advisor to the presidential candidate John F. Kennedy,
他是总统候选人约翰·F·肯尼迪的顾问
who was running for election on the promise of five-percent growth,
肯尼迪竞选总统时承诺经济增长5%
so Rostow’s job was to keep that plane flying,
所以罗斯托的工作是让飞机保持飞行
not to ask if, how, or when it could ever be allowed to land.
而不去问飞机是否会降落 又如何或何时降落
So here we are, flying into the sunset of mass consumerism
所以半个多世纪以来
over half a century on,
我们一直向大众消费主义的落日飞去
with economies that have come to expect, demand and depend upon
我们的经济体已经开始期待 需求并依赖于
unending growth,
无休止的增长
because we’re financially, politically and socially addicted to it.
因为我们在经济 政治和社会上都对增长上瘾
We’re financially addicted to growth, because today’s financial system
我们在经济上沉迷于增长
is designed to pursue the highest rate of monetary return,
因为今天的金融体系旨在追求最高的货币回报率
putting publicly traded companies under constant pressure
这样上市公司为了实现不断增长的
to deliver growing sales, growing market share and growing profits,
销售额 市场份额和利润 就要承受持续的压力
and because banks create money as debt bearing interest,
还因为银行创造的资金用作带息债务
which must be repaid with more.
必须用更多的资金偿还
We’re politically addicted to growth
我们在政治上沉迷于增长
because politicians want to raise tax revenue
因为政客们希望
without raising taxes
在不增税的情况下增加税收
and a growing GDP seems a sure way to do that.
而不断增长的GDP似乎是实现这一目标的可靠途径
And no politician wants to lose their place in the G-20 family photo.
没有政客想在20国集团的合照中失去自己的位置
[Laughter]
[笑声]
But if their economy stops growing while the rest keep going,
但如果他们的经济停止增长 而其他国家继续增长
well, they’ll be booted out by the next emerging powerhouse.
他们将被下一个新兴大国赶出市场
And we are socially addicted to growth,
我们在社会上沉迷于增长
because thanks to a century of consumer propaganda,
这是因为一个世纪的消费者宣传
which fascinatingly was created by Edward Bernays,
神奇的是 这是西格蒙德·弗洛伊德的侄子
the nephew of Sigmund Freud,
爱德华·伯奈斯创造的
who realized that his uncle’s psychotherapy
他意识到如果我们相信
could be turned into very lucrative retail therapy
每次买更多的东西时我们都会改变自己
if we could be convinced to believe that we transform ourselves
那么他叔叔的心理治疗可能会
every time we buy something more.
变成非常有利可图的购物疗法
None of these addictions are insurmountable,
这些上瘾都不是不可克服的
but they all deserve far more attention than they currently get,
但它们都应该得到比目前更多的关注
because look where this journey has been taking us.
因为看看这段旅程一直在带我们去向何方
Global GDP is 10 times bigger than it was in 1950
全球GDP是1950年的10倍
and that increase has brought prosperity to billions of people,
这一增长为数十亿人带来了繁荣
but the global economy has also become incredibly divisive,
但全球经济也变得极为分裂
with the vast share of returns to wealth
财富回报的巨大份额
now accruing to a fraction of the global one percent.
现在只占全球1%的一小部分
And the economy has become incredibly degenerative,
经济已经变得极其恶化
rapidly destabilizing this delicately balanced planet
正迅速破坏我们所有生命赖以生存的
on which all of our lives depend.
这个微妙平衡的星球的稳定
Our politicians know it, and so they offer new destinations for growth.
我们的政治家知道这一点 因此他们提供了新的增长目标
You can have green growth, inclusive growth,
你可以实现绿色增长 包容性增长
smart, resilient, balanced growth.
智能 弹性和平衡增长
Choose any future you want so long as you choose growth.
只要你选择了增长 就可以选择任何你想要的未来
I think it’s time to choose a higher ambition, a far bigger one,
我认为是时候选择一个更高更大的抱负了
because humanity’s 21st century challenge is clear:
因为人类在21世纪面临的挑战是明确的:
to meet the needs of all people
在这个非同寻常 独特 有生命的星球上
within the means of this extraordinary, unique, living planet
满足所有人的需求
so that we and the rest of nature can thrive.
让人类和自然界的其他生物都能够繁荣发展
Progress on this goal isn’t going to be measured with the metric of money.
这一目标的进展不会用金钱来衡量
We need a dashboard of indicators.
我们需要一个指标仪表盘
And when I sat down to try and draw a picture of what that might look like,
当我坐下来试着画出仪表盘的样子时
strange though this is going to sound,
虽然听起来会很奇怪
it came out looking like a doughnut.
但它看起来像个甜甜圈
I know, I’m sorry,
我知道 我很抱歉
but let me introduce you to the one doughnut
但让我给你们介绍一种
that might actually turn out to be good for us.
可能对我们有好处的甜甜圈
So imagine humanity’s resource use radiating out from the middle.
想象一下 人类的资源利用自中心向外加大
That hole in the middle is a place
中间的那个洞是
where people are falling short on life’s essentials.
人们缺少生活必需品的地方
They don’t have the food, health care, education,
他们没有食物 医疗保健 教育
political voice, housing
政治话语权 住房
that every person needs for a life of dignity and opportunity.
这些每个人为了有尊严 有机会的生存所需要的
We want to get everybody out of the hole, over the social foundation
我们想把每个人都从洞里救出来
and into that green doughnut itself.
越过社会基础进入绿色甜甜圈
But, and it’s a big but,
但是 这是一个严肃的但是
we cannot let our collective resource use overshoot that outer circle,
我们不能让我们的集体资源使用超过这个外围圈
the ecological ceiling,
即生态上限
because there we put so much pressure on this extraordinary planet
因为我们对这个非凡的星球施加了如此大的压力
that we begin to kick it out of kilter.
以至于我们开始破坏生态平衡
We cause climate breakdown, we acidify the oceans,
我们导致气候恶化 海洋酸化
a hole in the ozone layer,
臭氧层空洞
pushing ourselves beyond the planetary boundaries
超出了地球生态上限
of the life-supporting systems that have for the last 11,000 years
在过去11000年中 这个系统
made earth such a benevolent home to humanity.
让地球成为人类如此仁慈的家园
So this double-sided challenge to meet the needs of all
因此要在地球力所能及的范围内满足所有人需求
within the means of the planet,
这一双重挑战
it invites a new shape of progress,
需要一种新的进步形式
no longer this ever-rising line of growth,
不再是这种不断上升的增长线
but a sweet spot for humanity,
而是人类生存的最佳点
thriving in dynamic balance between the foundation and the ceiling.
在基础和生态上限之间的动态平衡中蓬勃发展
And I was really struck once I’d drawn this picture
画完这幅画后 我真的很惊讶地意识到
to realize that the symbol of well-being in many ancient cultures
在许多古代文化中
reflects this very same sense of dynamic balance,
幸福的象征反映了同样的动态平衡感
from the Maori Takarangi
从毛利人的高兰奇
to the Taoist Yin Yang, the Buddhist endless knot,
到道教的阴阳 佛教的无休止的结
the Celtic double spiral.
和凯尔特人双螺旋
So can we find this dynamic balance in the 21st century?
那么我们能在21世纪找到这种动态平衡吗?
Well, that’s a key question,
这是一个关键问题
because as these red wedges show, right now we are far from balanced,
因为正如这些红色楔子所示 同时出现了短缺和过度
falling short and overshooting at the same time.
现在我们还远远没有达到平衡
Look in that hole, you can see that millions or billions of people worldwide
看看这个洞 你可以看到全世界数百万或数十亿人
still fall short on their most basic of needs.
最基本的需求仍得不到满足
And yet, we’ve already overshot at least four of these planetary boundaries,
而且我们至少在四个方面超过了地球生态上限
risking irreversible impact of climate breakdown
正冒着不可逆转的风险
and ecosystem collapse.
包括气候失调和生态系统崩溃
This is the state of humanity and our planetary home.
这就是人类和我们的星球家园的现状
We, the people of the early 21st century,
21世纪初的人们
this is our selfie.
这就是我们的自拍
No economist from last century saw this picture,
上个世纪没有任何一位经济学家看到过这幅图景
so why would we imagine that their theories
那么为什么我们会认为
would be up for taking on its challenges?
他们的理论能够接受挑战呢?
We need ideas of our own,
我们需要自己的想法
because we are the first generation to see this
因为我们是第一代看到这幅图景的人
and probably the last with a real chance of turning this story around.
可能是最后一代真正有机会扭转这个局面的人
You see, 20th century economics assured us that if growth creates inequality,
你看 20世纪的经济学向我们保证
don’t try to redistribute,
如果增长造成不平等 不要试图重新分配
because more growth will even things up again.
因为更多的增长将令情况再次平衡
If growth creates pollution,
如果增长造成污染 不要试图进行监管
don’t try to regulate, because more growth will clean things up again.
因为更多的增长将再次清理一切
Except, it turns out, it doesn’t,
但是事实证明 这一断言并没有发生
and it won’t.
而且也不会发生
We need to create economies that
我们需要通过设计创造
tackle this shortfall and overshoot together, by design.
一个能同时解决解决短缺和过剩问题的经济
We need economies that are regenerative and distributive by design.
我们需要通过设计创造再生和分配的经济
You see, we’ve inherited degenerative industries.
你看 我们继承了退化的产业
We take earth’s materials, make them into stuff we want,
我们把地球的材料做成我们想要的东西
use it for a while, often only once, and then throw it away,
用一段时间 通常只有一次 然后扔掉
and that is pushing us over planetary boundaries,
这就把我们推向了地球生态上限
so we need to bend those arrows around,
所以我们需要弯曲这些箭头
create economies that work with and within the cycles of the living world,
创造在生存环境中有效且不出界的经济
so that resources are never used up but used again and again,
这样资源就不会被耗尽 而是一次又一次地被利用
economies that run on sunlight,
经济体依靠太阳能运行
where waste from one process is food for the next.
其中一个过程产生的废物转就是下一个过程的原料
And this kind of regenerative design is popping up everywhere.
这种可再生设计随处可见
Over a hundred cities worldwide, from Quito to Oslo,
全球有一百多个城市 从基多到奥斯陆
from Harare to Hobart,
从哈拉雷到霍巴特
already generate more than 70 percent of their electricity
已经有超过70%的电力
from sun, wind and waves.
来自太阳 风和海浪
Cities like London, Glasgow, Amsterdam are pioneering circular city design,
像伦敦 格拉斯哥 阿姆斯特丹这样的城市是循环城市设计的先驱
finding ways to turn the waste from one urban process
寻找方法将一个过程产生的城市废物
into food for the next.
转化为下一个过程的原料
And from Tigray, Ethiopia to Queensland, Australia,
从埃塞俄比亚的提格雷到澳大利亚的昆士兰
farmers and foresters are regenerating once-barren landscapes
农民和林业者正在重耕曾经贫瘠的土地
so that it teems with life again.
让其再次充满生机
But as well as being regenerative by design,
但除了刻意地实现再生
our economies must be distributive by design,
我们的经济也必须刻意地实现分配
and we’ve got unprecedented opportunities for making that happen,
我们有前所未有的机会实现这一目标
because 20th-century centralized technologies,
因为21世纪技术 机构 财富
institutions,
知识和权力
concentrated wealth, knowledge and power in few hands.
都集中在少数人手中
This century, we can design our technologies and institutions
本世纪我们可以设计我们的技术和机构
to distribute wealth, knowledge and empowerment to many.
将财富 知识和权力分配给许多人
Instead of fossil fuel energy and large-scale manufacturing,
我们拥有可再生能源网络 数字平台和3D打印
we’ve got renewable energy networks, digital platforms and 3D printing.
而不是化石燃料能源和大规模制造业
200 years of corporate control of intellectual property is being upended
200年来公司对知识产权的控制正在被
by the bottom-up, open-source, peer-to-peer knowledge commons.
自下而上 开源 点对点的知识共享所颠覆
And corporations that still pursue maximum rate of return
那些仍在为股东追求最大回报率的公司
for their shareholders,
与那些旨在创造多种形式价值
well they suddenly look rather out of date
并与网络中的人分享价值
next to social enterprises that are designed to generate
的社会企业相比
multiple forms of value and share it with those throughout their networks.
突然显得有些过时了
If we can harness today’s technologies,
如果我们能够利用当今的技术
from AI to blockchain
从人工智能到区块链
to the Internet of Things to material science,
到物联网再到材料科学
if we can harness these in service of distributive design,
如果我们能够利用这些技术为分配式设计服务
we can ensure that health care, education, finance, energy, political voice
我们就能确保医疗保健 教育 金融 能源 政治话语权
reaches and empowers those people who need it most.
能被给予那些最需要它们的人
You see, regenerative and distributive design
你可以看到可再生和可分配的设计
create extraordinary opportunities for the 21st-century economy.
为21世纪的经济创造了非凡的机遇
So where does this leave Rostow’s airplane ride?
那么这对罗斯托的飞机有何影响呢?
Well, for some it still carries the hope of endless green growth,
对一些人来说 它仍然承载着无限绿色增长的希望
the idea that thanks to dematerialization,
这些人认为 由于非物质化
exponential GDP growth can go on forever while resource use keeps falling.
GDP能永远保持指数增长 同时资源消耗不断减少
But look at the data. This is a flight of fancy.
但请看看数据 这只是异想天开
Yes, we need to dematerialize our economies,
是的 我们需要使我们的经济去物质化
but this dependency on unending growth cannot be decoupled from resource use
但是 对无止境增长的依赖离不开对资源的利用
on anything like the scale required
这种资源利用与把我们安全带回地球边界内
to bring us safely back within planetary boundaries.
所需要的规模一样
I know this way of thinking about growth is unfamiliar,
我知道这种思考增长的方式很陌生
because growth is good, no?
因为增长是好的 不是吗?
We want our children to grow, our gardens to grow.
我们希望我们的孩子成长 我们的花园成长
Yes, look to nature and growth is a wonderful, healthy source of life.
是的 放眼大自然 成长是种美好 健康的生命之源
It’s a phase, but many economies like Ethiopia and Nepal today
不过这只是一个阶段 像埃塞俄比亚和尼泊尔这样的
may be in that phase.
许多经济体今天可能处于这一阶段
Their economies are growing at seven percent a year.
他们的经济正以每年7%的速度增长
But look again to nature,
但是再看看大自然
because from your children’s feet to the Amazon forest,
因为从你的孩子的脚到亚马逊森林
nothing in nature grows forever.
自然界中没有任何东西会永远生长
Things grow, and they grow up and they mature,
事物成长 从成长到成熟
and it’s only by doing so
只有这样
that they can thrive for a very long time.
他们才能长期繁荣
We already know this.
我们已经知道这一点
If I told you my friend went to the doctor
如果我告诉你 我的朋友去看医生
who told her she had a growth
医生告诉她体内长了东西
that feels very different,
那就不一样了
because we intuitively understand that when something tries to grow forever
因为我们直觉地理解 当某些东西试图
within a healthy, living, thriving system,
在一个健康 有生命 繁荣的系统中永远生长时
it’s a threat to the health of the whole.
它就是对整体健康的威胁
So why would we imagine that our economies
那么为什么我们会认为
would be the one system that could buck this trend
我们的经济将是一个能够扭转这一趋势
and succeed by growing forever?
并通过永远增长而取得成功的体系呢?
We urgently need financial, political and social innovations
我们迫切需要金融 政治和社会创新
that enable us to overcome this structural dependency on growth,
使我们能够克服对增长的结构性依赖
so that we can instead focus on thriving and balance
这样我们就可以转而关注
within the social and the ecological boundaries of the doughnut.
甜甜圈社会和生态边界内的繁荣和平衡
And if the mere idea of boundaries makes you feel, well, bounded,
如果仅仅是界限的概念就让你觉得受限制
think again.
那么再想想
Because the world’s most ingenious people
因为世界上最有创造力的人
turn boundaries into the source of their creativity.
把边界变成了他们创造力的源泉
From Mozart on his five-octave piano
从莫扎特的五音钢琴
Jimi Hendrix on his six-string guitar,
吉米·亨德里克斯的六弦吉他
Serena Williams on a tennis court,
到塞雷娜·威廉姆斯的网球场
it’s boundaries that unleash our potential.
都是边界释放了我们的潜力
And the doughnut’s boundaries unleash the potential for humanity to thrive
甜甜圈的边界释放了人类的潜力
with boundless creativity, participation, belonging and meaning.
让人类在无限的创造力 参与 归属感和意义下茁壮成长
It’s going to take all the ingenuity that we have got to get there,
这将需要我们投入所有的智慧才能实现
so bring it on.
所以放马过来吧
Thank you.
谢谢大家
[Applause]
[掌声]

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译制信息
视频概述

颠覆你的认知,这个视频带你重新思考什么样的经济是我们需要的,

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

黄洪宇

审核员

审核员HSX

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rhcrbcg8HBw

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