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多方受益的气候方案

A climate solution where all sides can win | Ted Halstead

我有一个两岁的女儿 名叫娜娅
I have a two-year-old daughter named Naya
她误认为这个会议的名字
who is under the mistaken impression
是在向他的父亲致敬
that this conference is named in honor of her father.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我哪里敢反驳我的宝贝女儿呢?
Who am I to contradict my baby girl?
很多人都有体会 为人父母之后
As many of you know, there’s something about becoming a parent
才会更留心气候变化之类的长期问题
that concentrates the mind on long-term problems like climate change.
是我女儿的出生启发了我
It was the birth of my daughter that inspired me
去建立这个气候组织
to launch this climate organization,
为了对抗美国在这个问题上的
in order to counteract the excessive polarization of this issue
过度分化
in the United States,
并找到一个保守的发展路径
and to find a conservative pathway forward.
是的伙计们 一个共和党气候策略是可能的
Yes, folks, a Republican climate solution is possible,
更有甚者
and you know what?
可能还是个更好的解决方案
It may even be better.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我来给大家证明一下
Let me try to prove that to you.
我们真正需要的是一个针对气候政策的杀手级应用
What we really need is a killer app to climate policy.
在技术领域 一个杀手级应用是一个变革性的应用
In the technology world, a killer app is an application so transformative
可以打造属于自己的市场
that it creates its own market,
比如优步
like Uber.
在气候问题的领域中
In the climate world,
一个杀手级应用是一个颇具前景的新策略
a killer app is a new solution so promising
可以打破看似坚不可摧的壁垒
that it can break through the seemingly insurmountable
来获得突破
barriers to progress.
这包含了心理上的壁垒
These include the psychological barrier.
气候倡议者长久以来一直在鼓励身边的市民
Climate advocates have long been encouraging their fellow citizens
暂时牺牲短期的利益
to make short-term sacrifices now
来造福若干年后
for benefits that accrue to other people
其他国家的人们
in other countries 30 or 40 years in the future.
然而效果甚微 毕竟这有悖基本的人性其次
It just doesn’t fly because it runs contrary to basic human nature.
还有地域政治壁垒
Next is the geopolitical barrier.
在当前的国际贸易规则下
Under the current rules of global trade,
各个国家都有着强烈的意愿去单方面敦促其他国家
countries have a strong incentive to free ride off the emissions reductions
减少碳排放
of other nations,
而并非强化自己国家的相关政策
instead of strengthening their own programs.
这长期以来都是
This has been the curse
每一个国际气候谈判的症结所在 包括巴黎协议最后
of every international climate negotiations, including Paris.
我们还有党派之间的冲突
Finally, we have the partisan barrier.
即便是最有决心的几个国家——
Even the most committed countries —
德国 英国 加拿大——
Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada —
也都离合约要求的减排规模和速度存在差距
are nowhere near reducing emissions at the required scale and speed.
而且相差甚远
Not even close.
而在美国 各党派在气候问题上的分歧
And the partisan climate divide is far more acute
更是有过之而无不及
here in the United States.
我们基本是在停滞不前
We are fundamentally stuck,
因此更需要一个气候政策的杀手应用
and that is why we need a killer app of climate policy
去打破所有这些壁垒
to break through each of these barriers.
我相信气候问题在美国要想取得进展
I’m convinced that the road to climate progress in the United States
需要依靠共和党
runs through the Republican Party
以及商业界的支持
and the business community.
因此我发起了气候领导委员会
So in launching the Climate Leadership Council,
最初就尝试着与共和党的政治大佬
I started by reaching out to a who’s who of Republican elder statesmen
和商业领袖沟通
and business leaders,
包括詹姆斯·贝克和乔治·舒兹
including James Baker and George Schultz,
美国最具影响力的两位政界大佬;
the two most respected Republican elder statesmen in America;
马丁·菲尔德斯坦和格雷格·曼昆
Martin Feldstein and Greg Mankiw,
美国最有威望的两位保守派经济学家;
the two most respected conservative economists in the country;
还有亨利·鲍尔森和罗伯·沃顿
and Henry Paulson and Rob Walton,
最成功 最受人敬仰的两位商业领袖
two of the most successful and admired business leaders.
我们共同撰写了
Together, we co-authored
《碳红利保守方案》
“The Conservative Case For Carbon Dividends.”
这标志着共和党领导人第一次
This represents the first time
合作推动了坚实的 基于市场经济
that Republican leaders put forth
的气候策略
a concrete market-based climate solution.
(掌声)
(Applause)
谢谢大家
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)
特朗普总统搬入白宫两个星期后
We presented our plan at the White House
我们就在那里对这一计划做了汇报
two weeks after President Trump moved in.
全国几乎每一个主流编辑委员会
Almost every leading editorial board in the country
都为我们的计划进行了背书
has since endorsed our plan,
而且财富100强中各个领域的企业
and Fortune 100 companies from a wide range of industries
也都成为了我们坚实的后盾
are now getting behind it.
那么现在你们可能很好奇
So by now you’re probably wondering,
这到底是个什么计划呢?
what exactly is this plan?
事实上我们的碳红利策略是基于四个要点
Well, our carbon dividends solution is based on four pillars.
第一个就是一个逐渐增收的碳税
The first is a gradually rising carbon tax.
虽然资本主义是个很不错的体系
Although capitalism is a wonderful system,
但就像很多操作系统一样 也容易出错
like many operating systems, it’s prone to bugs,
这种情况通常叫做“市场失调”
which, in this case, are called “market failures.”
目前出现的最大问题就是市场价格没有将
By far the largest is that market prices fail to take
社会和环境成本考虑在内
social and environmental costs into account.
这就意味着每次市场交易都是基于错误的信息
That means every market transaction is based on incorrect information.
资本主义这个根本性的缺陷 超越了任何其他单一因素
This fundamental bug of capitalism, more than any other single factor,
要为我们的气候困境负责理论上
is to blame for our climate predicament.
这应该是个易如反掌的问题
Now in theory, this should be an easy problem to fix.
经济学家一致认为
Economists agree
最好的解决方案是给化石燃料的碳含量定个价
that the best solution is to put a price on the carbon content of fossil fuels,
换句话说就是征碳税
otherwise known as a carbon tax.
这样一来就会在每一天的
This would discourage carbon emissions
每一项经济交易中
in every single economic transaction,
抑制碳排放
every day of the year.
然而 事实已经证明碳税本身并不受欢迎
However, a carbon tax by itself has proven to be unpopular
是政策上的死胡同
and a political dead end.
而答案应该是把所有缴纳的费用
The answer is to return all the money raised
以每月固定红利的形式
directly to citizens,
直接回馈给老百姓
in the form of equal monthly dividends.
这样一来就可以把不受欢迎的碳税转换成为
This would transform an unpopular carbon tax
受欢迎的 大众化的解决方案
into a popular and populist solution,
同时也能够解决
and it would also solve
之前谈到过的潜在的心理壁垒
the underlying psychological barrier that we discussed,
仅仅需要给每个人一个实实在在的
by giving everyone a concrete benefit in the here and now.
当下的福利这些福利的影响将是巨大的
And these benefits would be significant.
假设碳税率为每吨40美元起
Assuming a carbon tax rate that starts at 40 dollars per ton,
一个四口之家从征税开始以后就能
a family of four would receive 2,000 dollars per year
每年得到2千美元
from the get-go.
根据美国财政部的政策
According to the US Treasury Department,
美国底层70%的百姓 相比缴纳日益增长的能源费用
the bottom 70 percent of Americans would receive more in dividends
反而将会收到更多的红利
than they would pay in increased energy prices.
也就是说2亿多的美国人民将会因为解决气候问题
That means 223 million Americans would win economically
而在经济上获益
from solving climate change.
而且——
And that —
(掌声)
(Applause)
这是革命性的
is revolutionary,
也会从根本上改变气候政治现状
and could fundamentally alter climate politics.
不过这其中还有另外一个革命性的因素
But there’s another revolutionary element here.
红利的数额将会随着
The amount of the dividend would grow
碳税率的上涨而增加
as the carbon tax rate increases.
我们对气候的保护工作做得越好
The more we protect our climate,
我们的市民获利就越多
the more our citizens benefit.
这就产生了一个积极的反馈机制
This creates a positive feedback loop,
这很重要
which is crucial,
因为我们能达到长期减排目标的唯一途径
because the only way we will reach our long-term emission-reduction goals
就是碳税率会逐年增长
is if the carbon tax rate goes up every year.
第三个关键点是要取消
The third pillar of our program is eliminating regulations
碳红利计划实施后
that are no longer needed
就可以取消各项规章制度
once a carbon dividends plan is enacted.
这是共和党和商业领袖们一个关键的卖点
This is a key selling point to Republicans and business leaders.
那么为什么要用碳税
So why should we trade
来换取代气候保护法规呢?
climate regulations for a price on carbon?
我来解释一下
Well, let me show you.
我们的计划将会实现相当于奥巴马时代
Our plan would achieve nearly twice the emissions reductions
所有气候协议要求的减排量的两倍
of all Obama-era climate regulations combined,
同时也是特朗普总统废除所有规定后
and nearly three times the new baseline
设定的新的基准线的三倍
after President Trump repeals all of those regulations.
假设以收每吨40美元的碳税为起点
That assumes a carbon tax starting at 40 dollars per ton,
那么每加仑汽油会增加36美分的税
which translates into roughly an extra 36 cents per gallon of gas.
我们的计划本身
Our plan by itself
将会达到巴黎气候协议中
would meet the high end of America’s commitment
美国所承诺的上限
under the Paris Climate Agreement,
你们可以看到
and as you can see,
减排会随着时间持续下去
the emissions reductions would continue over time.
这就证明了一个基于自由市场和有限政府的
This illustrates the power of a conservative climate solution
保守派气候策略的效果是多么显著
based on free markets and limited government.
我们要同时实现制度简化
We would end up with less regulation
和减少污染
and far less pollution at the same time,
更要帮助美国的劳动人民提高生活水平
while helping working-class Americans get ahead.
这难道不是我们都可以支持的吗?
Doesn’t that sound like something we could all support?
(掌声)第四点
(Applause)
也是项目的最后一个基本点 是一个基于边界碳调节的
The fourth and final pillar of our program is a new climate domino effect,
新的气候多米诺效应
based on border carbon adjustments.
这听起来有些复杂
Now that may sound complicated,
但它同样也是革命性的
but it, too, is revolutionary,
因为它为我们提供了一个能实现
because it provides us a whole new strategy
全球碳价统一的新策略
to reach a global price on carbon,
这也是我们的最终目标
which is ultimately what we need.
给大家看个例子
Let me show you an example.
假设A国采纳了一个碳红利计划
Suppose Country A adopts a carbon dividends plan,
但是B国并没有
and Country B does not.
那么为了公平起见
Well, to level the playing field
同时保护本国工业的竞争力
and protect the competitiveness of its industries,
A国就需要根据B国商品的碳含量
Country A would tax imports from Country B
对其征收进口关税
based on their carbon content.
非常公平
Fair enough.
不过最耐人寻味的地方在于
But here’s where it gets really interesting,
征收的关税将会增加
because the money raised at the border would increase the dividends
A国公民的碳红利
going to the citizens of Country A.
那么你们觉得B国需要多长时间才会认识到
Well, how long do you think it would take the public in Country B to realize
那些钱应该收入自己的口袋
that that money should be going to them,
需要在自己的国家也推行碳红利计划?
and to push for a carbon dividends plan in their own land?
在更多的国家加入之后
Add a few more countries,
我们就会制造出一个新的气候多米诺效应
and we get a new climate domino effect.
一旦一个主要国家或者地区采纳了
Once one major country or region adopts carbon dividends
带有边界碳调节的碳红利计划
with border carbon adjustments,
其他国家就不得不跟进
other countries are compelled to follow suit.
效仿一个接一个 多米诺就这么倒了
One by one the dominoes fall.
而且这个多米诺效应可以始于任何地方
And this domino effect could start anywhere.
我个人强烈建议 应该从美国开始
My preference, strongly, is the United States,
但也可以从英国
but it could also start in the United Kingdom,
德国 或者其他欧洲国家开始
in Germany or another European country,
甚至中国
or even in China.
拿中国举个例子
Let’s take China as an example.
中国承诺要减少温室气体排放
China is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
但是中国的领导人更关心的是
but what its leaders care even more about
把国家的经济过渡到消费品引领的经济发展模式
is transitioning their economy to consumer-led economic development.
很明显 没有什么能比给每个中国公民
Well, nothing could do more to hasten that transition
按月分红更能加速这种过渡了
than giving every Chinese citizen a monthly dividend.
事实上 这是能够让中国同时
In fact, this is the only policy solution
实现环境保护和经济发展双重目标的
that would enable China to meet its environmental and economic goals
唯一有效的政治策略
at the same time.
这也就是为什么这才是气候政策的杀手应用
That’s why this is the killer app of climate policy,
因为它可以让我们克服
because it would enable us to overcome
之前提到的每一项壁垒:
each of the barriers we discussed earlier:
心理壁垒 党派壁垒
the psychological barrier, the partisan barrier,
还有我们刚刚提到过的地缘政治壁垒
and, as we’ve just seen, the geopolitical barrier.
我们需要的只是一个国家来领衔
All we need is a country to lead the way.
一个找到你想要寻找的目标的方法
And one method of finding what you’re looking for
就是发出一个广告
is to take out an ad.
我们一起来看看这一条
So let’s read this one together.
诚需:碳红利计划的国家先驱
Wanted: country to pioneer carbon dividends plan.
国家成本:
Cost to country: zero.
零起始日期:即日可上岗
Starting date: as soon as possible.
优势:最有效的气候策略
Advantages: most effective climate solution,
认可度高 平民化
popular and populist,
促进增长 促进商业化
pro-growth and pro-business,
缩减政府机构 帮助劳动阶层
shrinks government and helps the working class.
额外补助:当代和子孙后代的无限感恩
Additional compensation: gratitude of current and future generations,
还包括我的女儿
including my daughter.
谢谢大家
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)
克里斯·安德森:我只问一个问题泰德
Chris Anderson: Just one question for you, Ted.
我其实不太确定
I’m actually not sure
是不是在TED的讲台上见过一个保守党人士获得如此满堂彩
I’ve seen a conservative get standing O at TED before that.
这太棒了
That’s pretty cool.
逻辑上听上去真的很有说服力
The logic seems really powerful,
不过一些政治领域的人
but some people you talk to in politics
觉得很难想象国会要如何通过这项计划
say it’s hard to imagine this still getting through Congress.
你对这背后的推动力怎么看?
How are you feeling about momentum behind this?
泰德·哈尔斯特德:我很理解很多人对
Ted Halstead: So I understand that many are very pessimistic
特朗普总统在美国的种种作为持非常悲观的态度
about what’s happening in the United States with President Trump.
我觉得还好 原因如下
I’m less pessimistic; here’s why.
这届白宫团队的行动 对气候问题的提早行动
The actions of this White House, the early actions on climate,
只是一个复杂的气候棋局的第一步
are just the first move in a complex game of climate chess.
目前为止这只是一个废除性的策略;
So far it’s been a repeal-only strategy;
而真正面临压力的将会是一个替代性的项目
the pressure is going to mount for a replacement program,
也就是我们参与的部分
which is where we come in.
有三个原因 我来简单陈述一下 第一
And there are three reasons why, which I’ll go through real quickly.
商业界在气候变化问题上的观点
One, the business community is fundamentally parting ways
与白宫从本质上是有些不谋而合的
with the White House on climate change.
事实上 我们的项目得到了
In fact, we’re finding
一部分财富100强公司的支持
a number of Fortune 100 companies supporting our program.
两个月之内 我们就会宣布
Within two months, we’re going to be announcing
一些真正振奋人心的支持者的名字
some really surprising names coming out in favor of this program.
第二 毫无疑问 美国政治当中
Two, there is no issue in American politics
比气候变化分歧更大的是共和党内的普通民众
where there’s a more fundamental gap between the Republican base
和共和党政治领导群体的矛盾
and the Republican leadership than climate change.
第三点 类似于棋局中的博弈
And three, thinking of this analogy of chess,
我们所面临的巨大决策是:相关行政机构需要留在巴黎吗?
the big decision up ahead is: Does the administration stay in Paris?
我们来分析一下这两种情况
Well, let’s pan it out both ways.
如果仍然驻守巴黎 就像很多内部人士极力推行的
If it stays in Paris, as many are pushing for in the administration,
这就引出了一个问题:有什么(现成的)计划吗?
well then that begs a question: What’s the plan?
当然我们已经有计划了
We have the plan.
但如果不在巴黎
But if they don’t stay in Paris,
国际社会就会源源不断的进行施压
the international pressure will be overwhelming.
我们的国务卿将会质问其他国家对北约的贡献
Our Secretary of State will be asking other countries for NATO contributions,
他们就会说 “别提这个 交出你们对巴黎协议的承诺
and they’ll be saying, “No, give us our Paris commitment.
你们先兑现诺言 我们自然会说到做到 ” 所以
Come through on your commitments, we’ll come through on ours.”
国际社会 商业领域 甚至包括共和党民众
So, international, business and even the Republican base
通通都会呼吁一个来自共和党的替代性计划
will all be calling for a Republican replacement plan.
同时希望我们的计划能够不负众望
And, hopefully, we’ve provided one.
克里斯:非常感谢你 泰德
CA: Thank you so much, Ted.
泰德:谢谢 克里斯
TH: Thank you, Chris.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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