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机器人取代政客的大胆想法 – 译学馆
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机器人取代政客的大胆想法

A bold idea to replace politicians | César Hidalgo

只有我这样吗?还是这里有其他人
Is it just me, or are there other people here
也对民主感到有点儿失望?
that are a little bitdisappointed with democracy?
咱们先来看几个数字
So let’s look at a few numbers.
如果从全球来看
If we look across the world,
过去三十多年的总统选举
the median turnout in presidential elections over the last 30 years
参与投票的平均人数只有67%
has been just 67 percent.
如果我们去欧洲
Now,if we go to Europe and we look
看看参与欧洲议会大选的人数
at people that participated in EU parliamentary elections,
在那些大选中 参与投票的平均人数只有42%
the median turnout in those elections is just 42 percent.
咱们来看看纽约
Now let’s go to New York,
看看上一次的市长选举有多少人投票
and let’s see how many people voted in the last election for mayor.
我们会发现 只有24%的人参加投票
We will find that only 24 percent of people showed up to vote.
这就意味着 如果《老友记》还在播出
What that means is that,if”Friends” was still running,
只有乔伊 也许加上菲比 会参加投票
Joey and maybe Phoebewould have shown up to vote.
你不能怪他们 因为大家对政治人物都厌倦了
And you cannot blame thembecause people are tired of politicians.
大家都厌倦了
And people are tired
其他人用他们生成的资料
to communicate withtheir friends and family,
来和他们的朋友及家人沟通
to communicate withtheir friends and family,
把他们变成政治宣传的目标
to target political propaganda at them.
但就这点来说 并不算新鲜事儿
But the thing about thisis that this is not new.
如今 人们凭好恶把你当作宣传的目标
Nowadays, people use likesto target propaganda at you
其次才是你的邮政编号 性别或年龄
before they use your zip code or your gender or your age,
因为这种基于政治目的而把人作为宣传目标的想法
because the idea of targeting peoplewith propaganda for political purposes
其历史和政治本身一样久远
is as old as politics.
会有这种想法的原因
And the reason why that idea is there
是因为民主有一项根本的弱点
is because democracyhas a basic vulnerability.
这个弱点就是“代表”的观念
This is the idea of a representative.
原则上 民主是人们行使权力的能力
In principle, democracy is the abilityof people to exert power.
但实际上
But in practice,
我们是把权力委派给一位代表
we have to delegate that power to a representative
让他替我们行使权力
that can exert that power for us.
那名代表就是瓶颈或弱点所在
That representative is a bottleneck, or a weak spot.
如果你想攻击民主 你就会针对那个地方
It is the place that you want to target if you want to attack democracy
因为你可以通过俘虏代表
because you can capture democracyby either capturing that representative
或俘虏人们选出代表的方式来俘虏民主
or capturing the waythat people choose it.
所以 关键问题是:历史就到此为止了吗?
So the big question is: Is this the end of history?
我们做到最好 就只有这样吗?
Is this the best that we can do or,
或者 其实还有其他备选方案?
actually, are there alternatives?
有些人一直在想备选方案
Some people have been thinkingabout alternatives,
他们想出来的其中一个点子是
and one of the ideas that is
“直接民主”的想法
out there is the idea of direct democracy.
这个想法就是完全绕过政治人物
This is the idea of bypassingpoliticians completely
让人民针对议题直接投票
and having people vote directly on issues,
让人民直接投票表决法案
having people vote directly on bills.
但这个想法太天真 因为我们
But this idea is naive because there’s too many things
有太多的事情要作出选择
that we would need to choose.
以第114届美国国会为例
If you look at the 114th US Congress,
你会发现美国众议院
you will have seen thatthe House of Representatives
要考量超过六千个法案
considered more than 6,000 bills,
参议院要考量超过三千个法案
the Senate consideredmore than 3,000 bills
他们核准了超过三百条法律
and they approved more than 300 laws.
每个人一个星期内
Those would be many decisions
就要作出这么多的决策
that each person would have to make a week
而且是对他们几乎毫无所知的主题
on topics that they know little about.
那么 这就出现了一个很大的认知跨度问题
So there’s a big cognitivebandwidth problem
如果我们非要把直接民主当做一种可行的备选方案的话
if we’re going to try to think about direct democracy as a viable alternative.
于是 有些人想出一个叫“液态民主”或“液体民主”的办法
So some people think about the idea of liquid democracy, or fluid democracy,
也就是你可以把自己的政治权力授予某个人
which is the idea that you endorse your political power to someone,
他又可以再授予别人
who can endorse it to someone else,
并且 最终会形成一个大型的追随者网络
and eventually,you create a large follower network
最终 只会有几个人
in which, at the end, there’s a few people that are making decisions
代表他们的追随者 以及追随者的追随者做决定
on behalf of all of their followersand their followers.
但这个想法一样无法解决
But this idea also doesn’t solve the problem
认知跨度的问题
of the cognitive bandwidth and,
而且 老实说
to be honest,
这和采用代表的想法没什么两样
it’s also quite similar to the idea of having a representative.
所以 我今天打算做的是
So what I want to do today is
我想来点刺激的
I want to be a little bit provocative,
我要问各位:
and I’m going to ask you, well:
如果 不绕过政治人物
What if, instead of tryingto bypass politicians,
而是试着将他们自动化 会如何?
we tried to automate them?
自动化的想法并不新奇
The idea of automation is not new.
至少三百年前就已经有了
It was started more than 300 years ago,
那时法国的织布工决定要将织布机自动化
when French weavers decidedto automate the loom.
那次工业战争的赢家是约瑟夫•马瑞•加卡尔
The winner of that industrial warwas Joseph-Marie Jacquard.
他是一名法国织布工 同时也是个
He was a French weaver and a merchant
将织布和蒸汽引擎结合
that married the loom with the steam engine
创造出了自动织布机的商人
to create autonomous looms.
他靠着那些自动织布机取得了控制权
And in those autonomous looms,he gained control.
较之于那些人工织出的布料
He could now make fabrics that
他现在能制造出
were more complex and more sophisticated
更复杂 更精密的布料
than the ones theywere able to do by hand.
此外 通过打赢那场工业战争
But also, by winning that industrial war,
他绘制出了自动化的蓝图
he laid out what has becomethe blueprint of automation.
过去三百年间 事物自动化的方式
The way that we automate thingsfor the last 300 years
都一直没变过:首先 我们找出需求
has always been the same: we first identify a need,
接着 我们创造出一样工具来满足该需求
then we create a toolto satisfy that need,
在这个例子中 工具就是织布机
like the loom, in this case,
接着 我们研究人们怎么使用那工具
and then we study how people use that tool
来将使用者自动化
to automate that user.
我们就是这样子从机械织布机
That’s how we camefrom the mechanical loom
发展到自动织布机 这个过程花了我们一千年
to the autonomous loom, and that took us a thousand years.
而现在 我们只花了一百年
Now, it’s taken us only a hundred years
就照着同样的脚本将汽车自动化了
to use the same scriptto automate the car.
但重点是 这一次
But the thing is that, this time around,
自动化是玩真的了
automation is kind of for real.
这段视频是我的一个
This is a video that a colleague
在东芝工作的同事分享给我的
of mine from Toshiba shared with me
视频中是一个制造硬盘的工厂
that shows the factorythat manufactures solid state drives.
整个工厂都是机器人
The entire factory is a robot.
工厂中没有人类
There are no humans in that factory.
机器人很快就会走出工厂
And the robots are soonto leave the factories
成为人类世界的一部分
and become part of our world,
成为我们劳动力的一部分
become part of our workforce.
所以我正在做的工作
So what I’m doing in my day job
其实是在创造整合全国数据的工具
is actually create tools that integrate data for entire countries
这么一来 最终我们就能够有我们所需要的基础
so that we can ultimately havethe foundations that we need
为未来我们需要管理那些机器的时候做准备
for a future in which we need to also manage those machines.
但今天 我不是来这里
But today, I’m not here
跟大家探讨这些
to talk to you about these tools
整合全国资料的工具
that integrate data for countries.
我来跟各位谈的是另一个想法
But I’m here to talk to youabout another idea
这个想法可能可以协助我们思考如何将人工智慧用在民主上
that might help us think about how to use artificial intelligence in democracy.
因为我所建造的工具是用来做重大决策的
Because the tools that I buildare designed for executive decisions.
这些决策是
These are decisions that can be cast
可以客观做出的决策——
in some sort of term of objectivity —
公共投资决策
public investment decisions.
但有些决策和立法相关
But there are decisionsthat are legislative,
这些立法相关决策会需要大家
and these decisions that are legislativerequire communication among people
针对不同的观点进行沟通
that have different points of view,
需要参与 需要辩论 需要商议
require participation, require debate, require deliberation.
长期以来 我们都以为
And for a long time,we have thought that, well,
若要改善民主 我们需要的是更多的沟通
what we need to improve democracyis actually more communication.
所以 我们为了民主
So all of the technologies
所发展出的所有技术
that we have advanced in the context of democracy,
不论是报纸 还是社交媒体
whether they are newspapersor whether it is social media,
都努力给我们提供更多的沟通
have tried to provide uswith more communication.
但我们已经身陷困惑中了
But we’ve been down that rabbit hole,
我们知道这并不能解决问题
and we know that’s not what’s going to solve the problem.
因为这并不是一个沟通的问题 而是认知跨度的问题
Because it’s not a communication problem, it’s a cognitive bandwidth problem.
如果这个问题是认知跨度的问题
So if the problem is oneof cognitive bandwidth, well,
那么给人们增加更多沟通
adding more communication to people
并不会是解决方案
is not going to bewhat’s going to solve it.
反而我们需要的
What we are going to need instead
是其他帮助我们
is to have other technologies
处理一些对于我们来说
that help us deal withsome of the communication
超出负荷的沟通的工具
that we are overloaded with.
把它想象成虚拟角色或软件代理
Think of, like, a little avatar, a software agent,
数字化的吉明尼蟋蟀
a digital Jiminy Cricket!
[笑声]
[Laughter]
它基本上能够代表你来做回应
that basically is ableto answer things on your behalf.
如果我们有那种技术
And if we had that technology,
我们就能够卸下一些沟通负担
we would be able to offload some of the communication
也许就能协助我们做更好的决策或更大规模的决策
and help, maybe, make better decisions or decisions at a larger scale.
其实软件代理的想法也不是新的
And the thing is that the idea of software agents is also not new.
我们已经在使用了
We already use them all the time.
我们用软件代理
We use software agents
来选择开车
to choose the way
前往某个地点的路线
that we’re going to drive to a certain location,
选择我们要听的音乐
the music that we’re going to listen to
或获得推荐我们要读的下一本书的建议
or to get suggestions for the next books that we should read.
所以在二十一世纪 有一个很显而易见的想法
So there is an obvious ideain the 21st century
和加卡尔那时候
that was as obvious as the idea
将蒸汽引擎与织布机结合的想法同样显而易见
of putting together a steam engine with a loom at the time of Jacquard.
那个想法就是将直接民主与软件代理结合起来
And that idea is combiningdirect democracy with software agents.
花点时间想象一下这样的世界:
Imagine, for a second, a world
在这个世界 并不是由一个代表来代表你
in which, instead of havinga representative that represents you
以及其他数百万人
and millions of other people,
你可以有单独属于你自己的代表
you can have a representative that represents only you,
这个代表保有你细微的政治观点——
with your nuanced political views —
古典自由派和自由派的奇特组合
that weird combinationof libertarian and liberal
也许在某些议题上有一点保守
and maybe a little bitconservative on some issues
在其他议题上又很激进
and maybe very progressive on others.
现今的政治人物都是套装的 且他们充满了妥协
Politicians nowadays are packages,and they’re full of compromises.
但你可以有一个只代表你的人
But you might have someonethat can represent only you,
只要你愿意放弃
if you are willing to give up the idea
那个代表是人类的想法
that that representative is a human.
如果那个代表是个软件代理程式
If that representativeis a software agent,
我们的参议院中的参议员数目就可以跟公众数目一样多
we could have a senate that has as many senators as we have citizens.
那些参议员还能够
And those senators are going to
读完所有的法案
be able to read every bill
且他们能够针对每一项法案来投票
and they’re going to be able to vote on each one of them.
我们也许可以考虑这个明显的想法
So there’s an obvious ideathat maybe we want to consider.
但我明白 在现今这个时代
But I understand that in this day and age,
这个想法可能会很吓人
this idea might be quite scary.
事实上 想着一个来自未来的机器人
In fact, thinking of a robotcoming from the future
来协助我们运作政府 就听起来很吓人
to help us run our governments sounds terrifying.
但以前就发生过了
But we’ve been there before.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
其实他人挺好的
And actually he was quite a nice guy.
所以 这个想法的加卡尔织布机版本会是什么模样?
So what would the Jacquard loom version of this idea look like?
它会是个很简单的系统
It would be a very simple system.
想像一个你可以登入
Imagine a system that you log
创造你的虚拟角色的系统
in and you create your avatar,
接着你就要开始训练你的虚拟角色
and then you’re goingto start training your avatar.
你可以将你的阅读习惯提供给它
So you can provide your avatarwith your reading habits,
或是将你的社交媒体连接
or connect it to your social media,
或将它和其他资料连接
or you can connect it to other data,
比如 去做心理测验
for example by takingpsychological tests.
这么做的好处是 不会有欺骗状况发生
And the nice thing about thisis that there’s no deception.
你并不是提供资料
You are not providing data to communicate
来和你的朋友及家人沟通
with your friends and family
这些资料接着就会被一个政治系统拿来使用
that then gets used in a political system.
你是把资料提供给
You are providing data to a
一个设计来
system that is designed to be used
为你做政治决策的系统
to make political decisionson your behalf.
接着 你提供资料并选择一个训练演算法
Then you take that data and you choosea training algorithm,
因为它是一个开放的市场
because it’s an open marketplace
不同的人可以上传不同的演算法
in which different people can submit different algorithms
根据你提供的资料
to predict how you’re going to vote,
来预测你会如何投票
based on the data you have provided.
这个系统是开放的 没有人能控制演算法
And the system is open,so nobody controls the algorithms;
有些演算法会变得比较热门
there are algorithmsthat become more popular
其他的比较冷门
and others that become less popular.
最终 你能审查这个系统
And eventually, you can audit the system.
你可以看到你的虚拟角色怎么运作
You can see how your avatar is working.
如果你乐意就可以让它自动运作
And if you like, you can leave it on autopilot.
如果你想要有多一点控制权
If you want to bea little more controlling,
你也可以选择
you can actually choose
让它在每次做决策之前先询问你
that they ask you every time they’re going to make a decision,
或是这两者之间的任何方式
or you can be anywhere in between.
我们之所以很少去使用民主的原因之一
One of the reasonswhy we use democracy so little may be
可能是因为民主的用户界面实在太烂了
because democracyhas a very bad user interface.
如果我们改善民主的用户界面
And if we improve the userinterface of democracy,
也许我们会更常使用它
we might be able to use it more.
当然 你们可能有很多疑问
Of course, there’s a lot of questionsthat you might have. Well,
你要如何训练这些虚拟角色?
how do you train these avatars?
你要如何确保资料安全性?
How do you keep the data secure?
你要如何让系统一直是分散式且可审查的?
How do you keep the systemsdistributed and auditable?
我八十岁的祖母不知道
How about my grandmother,who’s 80 years old
如何使用网络 怎么办?
and doesn’t know how to use the internet?
相信我 这些问题我都听过
Trust me, I’ve heard them all.
当你在思考这类想法时
So when you think about an idea like this,
要意识到有悲观主义者
you have to beware of pessimists
因为他们著名的特色就是对每一个解决方案都会质疑
because they are known to havea problem for every solution.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
我想请大家来思考更宏观的想法
So I want to invite you to think about the bigger ideas.
我刚刚向各位展示的问题都是小想法
The questions I just showed youare little ideas
因为它们是关于这个系统如何不可行的问题
because they are questionsabout how this would not work.
宏观想法指的是这些想法:
The big ideas are ideas of:
如果这个系统碰巧可行 你还能拿它做什么?
What else can you do with this if this would happen to work?
其中一个想法是 谁来制订法律?
And one of those ideas is,well, who writes the laws?
一开始
In the beginning,
我们可以让那些我们已经拥有的虚拟角色
we could have the avatars that we already have,
针对参议员或政客所制订的
voting on laws that are writtenby the senators or politicians
既有的法律来投票
that we already have.
但如果这个系统成功了 你可以写一个
But if this were to work, you could write an algorithm
能设法制定出
that could try to write a law
能得到一部分人认可的法律的算法
that would get a certainpercentage of approval,
你还可以把这个过程反转
and you could reverse the process.
现在你可能觉得这个想法很荒唐
Now, you might think that this idea is ludicrous
我们不该这么做
and we should not do it,
但无法否认
but you can not deny
这个想法只有在
that it’s an idea that is only possible
直接民主和软件代理是种可行的参与形式的世界里
in a world in which direct democracyand software agents
才有可能实现
are a viable form of participation.
那么 我们要如何发动这场革命?
So how do we start the revolution?
我们发动这场革命的方式不会用上尖桩篱栅或抗议
We don’t start this revolutionwith picket fences or protests
也不会强烈要求让机器人取代现在的政客
or by demanding our current politiciansto be changed into robots.
那是行不通的
That’s not going to work.
这更简单 更慢 更谦卑
This is much more simple, much slower and much more humble.
我们发动这场革命的方式是创造像这样的简单系统
We start this revolution by creating simple systems
在研究所
like this in grad schools,
在图书馆 非营利机构里
in libraries, in nonprofits.
我们要设法解决所有的小问题
And we try to figure outall of those little questions
所有不得不解决的小毛病
and those little problems that we’re going to have to figure out
才能让这个想法变得可行
to make this idea something viable,
才能让这个想法值得我们信任
to make this idea somethingthat we can trust.
当我们在创造那些系统 让一百个人
And as we create those systems that have a hundred people,
一千个人
a thousand people,
十万人
a hundred thousand people voting
以没有政治牵连的方式投票时
in ways that are not politically binding,
我们将会产生对这个想法的信任
we’re going to develop trust in this idea,
世界将会改变
the world is going to change,
现在和我女儿
and those that are as little
一样小的那些孩子
as my daughter is right now
将来会长大
are going to grow up.
当我的女儿到我这个年纪时
And by the time my daughter is my age,
也许 这个现今听起来很疯狂的想法
maybe this idea, that I knowtoday is very crazy,
在她和她的朋友看起来可能并不疯狂
might not be crazy to herand to her friends.
到那个时候
And at that point,
我们的历史就走到了终点
we will be at the end of our history,
但她们的历史才刚刚开始
but they will beat the beginning of theirs.
谢谢
Thank you.
[掌声]
(Applause)

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视频概述

从纺织机与蒸汽机结合的自动化,我们也许可以找到未来政治投票的自动化灵感。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Echo

审核员

审核员 V

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyGWML6cI_k

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