ADM-201 dump PMP dumps pdf SSCP exam materials CBAP exam sample questions

3种长期规划的方法 – 译学馆
未登陆,请登陆后再发表信息
最新评论 (0)
播放视频

3种长期规划的方法

3 ways to plan for the (very) long term | Ari Wallach

我一直在「活在未来」 这是我自造的术语
So I’ve been “futuring,”which is a term I made up —
(笑声)
(Laughter)
大约三秒前想的
about three seconds ago.
我已经规划了20年了
I’ve been futuring for about 20 years,
最开始的时候 我跟别人坐在一起
and when I first started,I would sit down with people,
然后说「嘿 我们展望一下10年 20年后的事吧」
and say, “Hey,let’s talk 10, 20 years out.”
他们会说「好啊」
And they’d say, “Great.”
然后我看着这条时间线
And I’ve been seeing that time horizon
变得越来越短
get shorter and shorter
越来越短
and shorter,
两个月前我见到了一位公司CEO
so much so that I metwith a CEO two months ago
然后我谈到 就是刚才的那段对话
and I said — we startedour initial conversation.
他说「我喜欢你做的事 但我只想谈谈未来六个月的事」
He goes, “I love what you do.I want to talk about the next six months.”
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我们面对着许多问题
We have a lot of problemsthat we are facing.
有些是受到文明尺度的限制
These are civilizational-scale problems.
问题在于
The issue though is,
我们无法解决它们
we can’t solve them
我们现在使用的思维模式
using the mental modelsthat we use right now
还不能解决这些问题
to try and solve these problems.
虽然 我们已经做了很多技术性的工作
Yes, a lot of greattechnical work is being done,
但是问题是 我们需要解决一个前期问题
but there is a problem thatwe need to solve for a priori, before,
在我们真想解决那些大问题之前
if we want to reallymove the needle on those big problems.
「短期主义」
“Short-termism.”
对吗 没有游行也没有条幅
Right? There’s no marches.There’s no bracelets.
没有请愿书能让你签名来反对短期主义
There’s no petitions that you can signto be against short-termism.
我曾经试着做了一份 但没人签字
I tried to put one up, and no one signed.
这很奇怪
It was weird.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
它阻止了我们做太多事情
But it prevents us from doing so much.
短期主义 由于种种原因
Short-termism, for many reasons,
已经遍及我们现实生活中的每一个角落
has pervaded everynook and cranny of our reality.
我现在想让你花一秒钟时间
I just want you to take a second
回想一下你最近在忙的事情
and just think about an issuethat you’re thinking, working on.
它可能是私人的 或是职场的
It could be personal, it could be at work
或者是关乎世界的大事
or it could bemove-the-needle world stuff,
然后尽力想象 看看你能考虑多远
and think abouthow far out you tend to think
为了解决这个问题
about the solution set for that.
因为短期主义导致这位CEO
Because short-termism prevents the CEO
不愿购买昂贵但安全的设备
from buying reallyexpensive safety equipment.
最终损坏了水下输油管道
It’ll hurt the bottom line.
因此会有石油泄漏事故
So we get the Deepwater Horizon.
短期主义阻止教师们
Short-termism prevents teachers
对他们的学生进行一对一的高质量教学
from spending qualityone-on-one time with their students.
所以现在在美国
So right now in America,
每26秒就有一个高中生退学
a high school studentdrops out every 26 seconds.
短期主义阻止了国会……
Short-termism prevents Congress —
抱歉 如果现场有国会成员的话……
sorry if there’s anyonein here from Congress —
(笑声)
(Laughter)
其实也不是那么想道歉
or not really that sorry —
(笑声)
(Laughter)
导致没有资金投入到基础建设
from putting moneyinto a real infrastructure bill.
所以我们的密西西比河大桥
So what we getis the I-35W bridge collapse
几年前发生了垮塌
over the Mississippi a few years ago,
死了13人
13 killed.
不过事情并不全是这样 我们发掘了巴拿马运河
It wasn’t always like this.We did the Panama Canal.
我们消灭了全球小儿麻痹症
We pretty muchhave eradicated global polio.
我们建造了跨太平洋铁路 还有马歇尔计划
We did the transcontinental railroad,the Marshall Plan.
也没有什么大的基础建设问题
And it’s not just big, physicalinfrastructure problems and issues.
女性获得了投票权
Women’s suffrage, the right to vote.
但是在今天这个短期主义时代
But in our short-termist time,
仿佛出现了各种各样的问题
where everything seems to happen right now
我们每天在想的就是发条推特或者更新动态
and we can only think outpast the next tweet or timeline post,
我们变得过度时效性了
we get hyper-reactionary.
那我们都做了什么
So what do we do?
我们解救了那些从战乱国家逃跑的人
We take people who are fleeingtheir war-torn country,
然后又去追捕他们
and we go after them.
我们引来了那些毒贩 又把他们关入监狱
We take low-level drug offenders,and we put them away for life.
我们建造了豪宅
And then we build McMansionswithout even thinking
却没有想过人们如何在住房和工作之间取舍
about how people are goingto get between them and their job.
真是一笔快钱交易
It’s a quick buck.
实际上 大多数这类问题都是有
Now, the reality is,for a lot of these problems,
技术补救方案的
there are some technical fixes,
很多都有
a lot of them.
我把这些技术补救方案叫做沙袋战略
I call these technical fixessandbag strategies.
比如说有暴雨袭来
So you know there’s a storm coming,
堤坝被摧毁 因为没有资金维护它
the levee is broken,no one’s put any money into it,
你不得不在房子周围垒起沙袋
you surround your home with sandbags.
猜猜结果如何 它起效了
And guess what? It works.
暴雨过后 当水退下以后
Storm goes away,the water level goes down,
你把这些沙袋撤下了
you get rid of the sandbags,
你可以重新用这些沙袋撑过一次 又一次
and you do this stormafter storm after storm.
从而形成一种潜在的思维
And here’s the insidious thing.
沙袋战略
A sandbag strategy
能让你重新当选
can get you reelected.
沙袋战略
A sandbag strategy
能帮你保住业绩
can help you make your quarterly numbers.
现在 我们再往前一步思考
Now, if we want to move forward
为了有一个不同的未来 至少和现在不同
into a different futurethan the one we have right now,
因为我觉得我们被骗了
because I don’t think we’ve hit —
2016年不是文明最高峰……
2016 is not peak civilization.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我们还有很多事要做
There’s some more we can do.
不过我认为除非我们把思维模式和图式
But my argument is that unless we shiftour mental models and our mental maps
迁移到短期规划上
on how we think about the short,
否则不会有变化
it’s not going to happen.
因此我发明了一个词语叫「长期发展」
So what I’ve developedis something called “longpath,”
这是一个实践
and it’s a practice.
长期发展不是一次性的练习
And longpath isn’ta kind of one-and-done exercise.
我相信在座的每个人都有一些
I’m sure everyone hereat some point has done an off-site
报事贴和看板任务
with a lot of Post-It notesand whiteboards,
你制定好了……
and you do —
我没有冒犯哪位咨询顾问的意思
no offense to the consultantsin here who do that —
你制定好了长期计划
and you do a long-term plan,
然后两周过去 基本上就忘掉了
and then two weeks later,everyone forgets about it.
对吗 甚至一周 有些人运气好点 三月才忘
Right? Or a week later.If you’re lucky, three months.
它是一种实践 而不是那种非做不可的事
It’s a practice becauseit’s not necessarily a thing that you do.
你需要回顾以往的实践经验
It’s a process where you haveto revisit different ways of thinking
思考你在做的每个重大决定
for every major decisionthat you’re working on.
我一般会使用以下三种思考方式
So I want to go throughthose three ways of thinking.
第一个 跨代思考
So the first: transgenerational thinking.
我很喜欢这些哲学家
I love the philosophers:
柏拉图 苏格拉底 哈贝马斯 黑格尔
Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.
我很崇拜他们
I was raised on them.
他们毕生只做一件事
But they all did one thing
也许看起来不是那么轰轰烈烈
that didn’t actually seem like a big deal
但当我开始研究思考时发现
until I really startedkind of looking into this.
他们毕生所为
And they all took,
就是把现实中的善良和美好
as a unit of measurefor their entire reality
作为一个衡量人生的单位
of what it meant to be virtuous and good,
贯穿一生
the single lifespan,
从始至终
from birth to death.
但是有一个问题
But here’s a problem with these issues:
它们堆积在我们的生命之上
they stack up on top of us,
我们唯一知道的是在世上做好事情的办法
because the only way we knowhow to do something good in the world
我们生来如此
is if we do it betweenour birth and our death.
这就是我们做事的规律
That’s what we’re programmed to do.
你如果想去书店的自助区学习
If you go to the self-help sectionin any bookstore,
就取决于你自己
it’s all about you.
重要的是
Which is great,
除非你在解决这些重要的问题时
unless you’re dealingwith some of these major issues.
使用跨代思考的方式
And so with transgenerational thinking,
也可以叫做一种跨代的道德准则
which is really kind oftransgenerational ethics,
你才能扩展你对这些问题的思考
you’re able to expandhow you think about these problems,
你该以什么样的角色帮助别人呢
what is your rolein helping to solve them.
当然 这不是安全理事馆才有必要做的事
Now, this isn’t something that just has tobe done at the Security Council chamber.
它也可以是普通人以个人的方式去做
It’s something that you can doin a very kind of personal way.
每一次 我有时间带着妻子和孩子去吃饭时
So every once in a while, if I’m lucky,my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
我们有3个不满七岁的熊孩子
and we have three childrenunder the age of seven.
安静地吃一顿晚餐只能是幻想
So you can imagineit’s a very peaceful, quiet meal.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
当我们坐下后 我唯一想做的就是吃完静坐
So we sit down and literallyall I want to do is just eat and chill,
然而我的孩子们则完全不同
and my kids have a completelyand totally different idea
和大人们不一样
of what we’re going to be doing.
我第一个想法就是
And so my first idea
采用沙袋战略 是吧
is my sandbag strategy, right?
我本能地掏口袋 拿出来iPhone
It’s to go into my pocketand take out the iPhone
想要让他们玩手机
and give them “Frozen”
或者任何能让他们消停点的游戏
or some other bestselling game thing.
然而我停住了
And then I stop
我脑袋里突然冒出了跨代思考的想法
and I have to kind of put onthis transgenerational thinking cap.
我不该在餐厅里做这个 因为它看起来很荒唐
I don’t do this in the restaurant,because it would be bizarre,
但我还是做了……
but I have to —
我正是做了以后 才知道真的很荒唐
I did it once, and that’s howI learned it was bizarre.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
你也许有过这种想法 「我可以这样做……」
And you have to kind of think,”OK, I can do this.”
但这个能教给他们什么呢
But what is this teaching them?
如果我掏出一些文章
So what does it meanif I actually bring some paper
或者给他们来一段座谈会怎么样
or engage with them in conversation?
很难说 很不容易 这是我非常个人的做法
It’s hard. It’s not easy,and I’m making this very personal.
以至于给了我心理创伤
It’s actually more traumatic
比我遇过的任何麻烦还要棘手
than some of the big issuesthat I work on in the world —
在餐桌上……
entertaining my kids at dinner.
不过实际做了以后 他们都坐到了我身边
But what it does is it connects themhere in the present with me,
另外……
but it also —
这是一个跨代思考的道德变化……
and this is the cruxof transgenerational thinking ethics —
这件事教给他们怎么去跟他们的下一代相处
it sets them up to how they’regoing to interact with their kids
乃至影响到下一代和下下一代
and their kids and their kids.
第二点 未来思考
Second, futures thinking.
让我们想想将来
When we think about the future,
10年 15年后
10, 15 years out,
我们的未来会是什么样的
give me a vision of what the future is.
你不必亲口告诉我 但要告诉你自己
You don’t have to give it to me,but think in your head.
你看待未来的主要方法在于
And what you’re probably going to see
你所使用的文化视角是什么
is the dominant cultural lens
当今的主流视角是
that dominates our thinkingabout the future right now:
科技
technology.
也就是说我们思考问题时
So when we think about the problems,
我们总是从科学的视角看它
we always put it througha technological lens,
以科技为中心 一个科学世界 这样想没什么错
a tech-centric, a techno-utopia,and there’s nothing wrong with that,
但我们如果想触及更广泛的世界
but it’s something that we have toreally think deeply about
我们就要从更多视角深入思考
if we’re going to moveon these major issues,
因为并不只有科学论 不是吗
because it wasn’t always like this. Right?
古人就有自己的思维视角
The ancients had their way of thinking
他们也有独特的未来观
about what the future was.
教堂宗教群体也有属于他们的未来设想
The Church definitely had their ideaof what the future could be,
你也可以用你的方式来阐释未来 对吧
and you could actually pay your wayinto that future. Right?
人类非常幸运地
And luckily for humanity,
通过科技革命改善了生活
we got the scientific revolution.
我们从此有了科学观念
From there, we got the technology,
但是实际上呢……
but what has happened —
顺便说一下 我不是要批判科学
And by the way, this is not a critique.
我爱科学
I love technology.
我家里每一件东西都在告诉我
Everything in my house talks back to me,
我的孩子 客人 以及各种事物
from my childrento my speakers to everything.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我们摒弃了罗马教皇对未来的描述
But we’ve abdicated the futurefrom the high priests in Rome
转而崇拜起了硅谷的「教皇们」
to the high priests of Silicon Valley.
所以我们在思考怎么去解决诸如气候问题
So when we think, well,how are we going to deal with climate
贫困问题 流浪人群时
or with poverty or homelessness,
我们第一反应总是用科学的角度来分析
our first reaction is to think about itthrough a technology lens.
大家看下 我不认同的就是这种人
And look, I’m not advocatingthat we go to this guy.
我喜欢乔尔 绝对没有恶意
I love Joel, don’t get me wrong,
但我要说不要跟随乔尔
but I’m not saying we go to Joel.
我想说的是我们要重新思考一下
What I’m saying is we have to rethink our base
关于未来只需通过一种看法
assumption aboutonly looking at the future in one way,
那就是自己的主观视角
only looking at itthrough the dominant lens.
因为我们的问题纷繁复杂
Because our problemsare so big and so vast
我们需要提升自己的眼界
that we need to open ourselves up.
这就是为什么我要独立自主 不谈某个未来
So that’s why I do everything in my powernot to talk about the future.
而是探讨未来的可能性
I talk about futures.
它值得开放性地讨论
It opens the conversation again.
当你有时间坐下来时 思考一下
So when you’re sitting and thinking
我该怎么理解这个重要的问题呢
about how do we move forwardon this major issue —
你可以在家里
it could be at home,
也可以在工作中
it could be at work,
还可以在世界这个大舞台上思考演绎
it could be again on the global stage —
不要畏惧思考科技视角以外的各种可能性
don’t cut yourself off from thinkingabout something beyond technology as a fix
我们在科学技术的范畴内思考太久了
because we’re more concernedabout technological evolution right now
甚至比人文视角还要久远
than we are about moral evolution.
除非我们能改正这个问题
And unless we fix for that,
并且跳出短期主义的陷阱
we’re not going to be ableto get out of short-termism
去到任何想去的地方
and get to where we want to be.
最后一点 终极思考 这个词来源于希腊
The final, telos thinking.This comes from the Greek root.
终极的目标和最终的期望
Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.
它实际上问了一个问题
And it’s really asking one question:
何为尽头
to what end?
你最后一次是什么时候问自己:何为尽头
When was the last timeyou asked yourself: To what end?
你又在何时问过自己 我已经走了多远
And when you asked yourself that,how far out did you go?
也许漫长并不是真正的远
Because long isn’t long enough anymore.
三年五年其实不算长
Three, five years doesn’t cut it.
而是30 40 50 100年
It’s 30, 40, 50, 100 years.
在荷马史诗 「奥德赛」中
In Homer’s epic, “The Odyssey,”
奥德修斯找到了他自己的「尽头」
Odysseus had the answer to his “what end.”
伊萨卡岛
It was Ithaca.
这是他心中最大的愿景
It was this bold visionof what he wanted —
回家见佩妮洛普
to return to Penelope.
我可以告诉你 因为工作的关系
And I can tell you,because of the work that I’m doing,
同样你也感觉得到……我们失去了心中的伊萨卡
but also you know it intuitively –we have lost our Ithaca.
我们失去了「尽头」 仿佛在一个仓鼠滚轮里
We have lost our “to what end,”so we stay on this hamster wheel.
的确 我们在努力解决问题
And yes, we’re tryingto solve these problems,
但解决之后要做什么呢
but what comes after we solve the problem?
除非你说明接下来做什么 人们才去做
And unless you define what comes after,people aren’t going to move.
在商业里……当然不光是商业
The businesses –this isn’t just about business —
在商业里有一些打破短期效益的老企业
but the businesses that do consistently,who break out of short-termism
无一例外都是家族式企业
not surprisinglyare family-run businesses.
他们跨代的 他们是终极的 他们会思考未来
They’re transgenerational. They’re telos.They think about the futures.
举一个例子 百年翡翠 有175年的历史
And this is an ad for Patek Philippe.They’re 175 years old,
令人吃惊的是他们在自己的品牌上
and what’s amazingis that they literally embody
具象化了这种从长远发展的思考
this kind of longpathian sensein their brand,
因为 比如说你从未买过百年翡翠
because, by the way,you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
其实我就没买过……
and I definitely won’t —
(笑声)
(Laughter)
除非有谁掏得起25000美元的价格
unless somebody wants to justthrow 25,000 dollars on the stage.
你只要看一眼它的下一代
You merely look after itfor the next generation.
总之 我们要记住一件很重要的事
So it’s important that we remember,
未来 我们把它当名词
the future, we treat it like a noun.
但并非如此 它是一个动词
It’s not. It’s a verb.
它需要行动
It requires action.
它需要我们去推动
It requires us to push into it.
它不是让我们晕头转向的湍流
It’s not this thing that washes over us.
它是我们可以实实在在把握的东西
It’s something that weactually have total control over.
在一个短利主义社会里 我们总是光说不做
But in a short-term society,we end up feeling like we don’t.
最终深陷其中
We feel like we’re trapped.
我们可以做到的
We can push through that.
现在我感到越来越自在
Now I’m getting more comfortable
就某种意义上来说
in the fact that at some point
活在毫无悬念的未来
in the inevitable future,
我会死去
I will die.
但是 由于这些新的思考和行动方式
But because of these new waysof thinking and doing,
无论是外面的世界还是和我的家人
both in the outside worldand also with my family at home,
以及我的小孩 事实上我都挺满意的
and what I’m leaving my kids,I get more comfortable in that fact.
尽管对我们来说改变总是很困难
And it’s something that a lot of usare really uncomfortable with,
但我还是会告诉你
but I’m telling you,
就这样去思考
think it through.
用这种思考方式 你能推动自己走过去
Apply this type of thinkingand you can push yourself past
最终必然是 非常非常的自在
what’s inevitablyvery, very uncomfortable.
在一切开始之前你要问问你自己
And it all begins reallywith yourself asking this question:
你的长期规划是什么
What is your longpath?
我再问你 什么时候你会开始
But I ask you, when you ask yourself that
现在 今晚 还是在车上
now or tonight or behind a steering wheel
在家里 或者在一个报告室
or in the boardroom or the situation room:
开始这场路程
push past the longpath,
比较短的 比如接下来三年或五年的规划
quick, oh, what’s my longpaththe next three years or five years?
试着开始你的目标生活吧
Try and push past your own life if you can
它会让你做的事一点点变大
because it makes you do thingsa little bit bigger
超过你曾以为可能的界限
than you thought were possible.
是的 我们都有很大很大的问题
Yes, we have huge,huge problems out there.
通过这些做法 通过这些想法
With this process, with this thinking,
我认为我们能有改变
I think we can make a difference.
我认为你们可以有所不同
I think you can make a difference,
并且我相信你们
and I believe in you guys.
谢谢
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)

发表评论

译制信息
视频概述

什么是短期主义?什么是长期路线?长期路线的三种重要思考方式是什么? 当我们把目光放得更长远时,我们的生命长度和宽度也会拓宽,最终为生活创造更多可能。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

龙包包

审核员

审核团HY

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjkrKA1cVdU

相关推荐