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预言家预警:走向毁灭之路 – 译学馆
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预言家预警:走向毁灭之路

3 Warnings to Stop Global Catastrophe: CRISPR, AI, & Robots | Richard Clarke

我们这本书的副标题是“找到阻止灾难的预言家”
The subtitle of our book is Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.
卡桑德拉在希腊神话中被神诅咒
Cassandra in Greek mythology was someone cursed by the gods, who could accurately see the
她能准确地看到未来却没人相信
future but would never be believed.
我们在本书中所说的预言家
When we say “Cassandras” throughout the book, we’re talking about people who can
是能准确看到未来的人
accurately see the future.
人们是对的 卡桑德拉也是对的
People who are right—Cassandra was right—people who are right about the future but are being
但是对未来观点正确的人被忽视了
ignored.
我们自认为从曾经的卡桑德拉的事件获得教训
Having derived what we think are the lessons learned from past Cassandra events, we then
而现在看到预言的人又被忽视了
looked at people today who were predicting things and being ignored.
我们首先发现问题,然后试图看到是否有人会警告他们
And we looked at issues first and then tried to see if there was someone warning about them.
这本书是关于人们,14个人:7个是我们已知的预言家
So the book is about people, 14 people: Seven who we known were Cassandras, and seven who
还有7个我们要检测他们是不是
we are examining to find out if they are.
通常预言家不直接他们参与担忧的事情
Usually Cassandras are people who are not directly involved in the thing that they worry about.
有人观察它
There are people who observe it.
还有人研究它
Then there are people who study it.
但在加州大学伯克利分校的珍妮弗·杜德娜
But in the case of Jennifer Doudna at the University of California Berkeley, she’s
她创造了它,她也是我们卡桑德拉
the person who created it and she’s also our Cassandra.
这里的“它”是指CRISPR Cas9,她发明的一个技术——我确定
The “it” in this case is CRISPR-Cas9, a method that she invented—and I’m sure
有一天可能会获得诺贝尔奖—— 一种基因编辑技术
someday will get a Nobel prize for—a method of doing gene editing that allows for removal
能敲除菌株的缺陷基因或者敲入新基因。
of genetic defects in the strain or addition into a strain of new capabilities.
这将彻底改变人类的生活
Now this is going to revolutionize human life.
它已经开始研究了
It’s already beginning.
这意味着导致数百万年来令人类遭受痛苦和折磨的缺陷基因
It’s going to mean that all of the genetic defects that have caused so much pain and
都有可能被敲除
suffering for people for millions of years, all of that could potentially be removed.
那么为什么发明了这个伟大技术的女人在因为担心它
So why does the great woman who invented this wake up in the middle of the night worrying
而半夜醒来?
about it?
她告诉我们 她担心她可能成为弗兰肯斯坦博士
What she told us was she’s afraid that she might have become Dr. Frankenstein.
她的技术可能会被人用可怕的方式滥用
That the technique that she developed could be misused in horrible ways.
它可能被滥用,例如制造生物武器,
It could be misused, for example, to create biological weapons, to create new forms of
制造危害人类的新武器,会在我们没有任何解药时造成威胁
threat to human beings, threats for which we don’t have any known antidote.
或者它可能只是用来创建人类的超能力
Or it could simply be used to create human beings of far superior capability.
不仅消除基因缺陷还能添加新的超能力
Not just taking genes and removing defects but adding new super capabilities.
所以一个场景中,我们和她讨论了如果朝鲜或中国
And so one scenario we discussed with her was what if the North Koreans or the Chinese
决定打造超级士兵
decided that they would create super soldiers?
将身体强壮,运动能力超强人打造成
Physically large people with great athletic ability designed to be soldiers, designed
勇猛好战,战斗力持久的士兵
to be aggressive, designed to be able to fight for long periods of time.
或者他们只是创造出有杰出的计算机编程能力
Or what if they simply created people who were brilliant at computer programming and
和智商爆表的人会怎样?
had IQs off the charts?
如果在这个基因编辑的过程中,我们创建了一个阶级社会
What if in the process of that kind of gene editing we created a caste society where some
一些人由基因决定做卑微的工作 而没有做其他事情的能力
people were genetically designed to do menial tasks and didn’t have the capability of
会怎么样?
doing anything else?
还有一些人变成有高智商和理解能力的统治者
And other people were designed to be the rulers with huge IQs and the capability of understanding
远远统治着弱小的人类
things beyond the pale for lesser humans.
这些事情不仅会吓到CRISPR Cas9的创造者,还会吓到我们
That’s something that scared the creator of CRISPR-Cas9 and it scared us.
当我们听了詹妮弗的故事,我们问自己
When we heard Jennifer’s story, we asked ourselves, “does she fit the template of a Cassandra
我们在书中展现的前七个人物里,她符合卡桑德拉的模板吗?
that we developed in the first half of the book looking at the first seven?”
她是一个专家吗?
Is she an expert?
绝对是
Absolutely.
她是专家
She is the expert.
她创造了CRISPR Cas9
She created it.
她是由数据驱动的吗?
Is she data-driven?

Yes.
她有关于CRISPR Cas9和它能做什么的大量数据
She has a wealth of data on CRISPR-Cas9 and what it can do.
是她预测了第一例综合症吗?
Is she predicting something that is first-occurrence syndrome?
以前从未发生过的这样的事情吗?
Something that’s never happened before?
答案是肯定的
And the answer to that is “yes.”
觉得有点古怪吗?
Is it kind of outlandish?
这是好莱坞的小说吗?
Is the stuff of Hollywood fiction?
没错
Yes it is.
那么观众——决策者呢?
What about the audience—the decisions maker?
我们发现有件事,早期的预言家并不是总是清楚
One of the things we saw with the earlier Cassandras was it wasn’t always clear there
谁是决策者
was a decision maker.
人们总是互相指责,“这是你的事,或者这与我无关”
People always pointed at each other saying “that’s your job, or at least it’s not my job.”
在这种情况下,对基因编辑可能发生,不可能发生
And in this case, making decisions about what gene editing can happen, and can’t happen,
和施行所涉及的法律和国际法的问题所下的决定
and enforcing that is a matter of law, and international law, and it’s not at all clear
并不完全清楚是谁的责任
whose job that is.
我们看着这些问题之一是人工智能
One of those issues we looked at was artificial intelligence.
现在坦白说我和我的 合著者R.P艾迪不同意是否做人工智能
Now frankly my co-author R.P. Eddy and I disagreed about whether or not to do artificial intelligence.
我说,“我不认为这是一个问题”
I said, “I don’t think this is a problem.”
毕竟如果一台电脑运行故障,你可以拔掉电源
After all if a computer acts up, you can unplug it.
显然我没理解这个问题
Obviously I didn’t understand the issue.
我的合著者R.P.Eddy却劝服我认为我们应该
And the way that my co-author, R.P. Eddy, convinced me that we should look for someone
找一些说“今天谈论这个的人是谁?”的人
on this issue was by saying, “who are the people who are talking about this today?”
不是人工智能专家而是通常关心它的人
Not the experts in AI but the people who are generally concerned about it.
那么他们是谁
And who are they?
比尔·盖茨,微软的创始人
Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft.
Elon Musk,特斯拉的创始人
Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla.
从牛津大物理学家斯蒂芬·霍金
Stephen Hawking, the great physicist from Oxford.
当我听说我说“OK,很好”
And when I heard that I said “Okay, fine.
如果那些人认为这是一个问题
Maybe if those guys think this is a problem, maybe we should look for the expert who is
也许我们应该找预测这可能是一个未来灾难的专家
predicting that this could be a future disaster.”
我们发现Yudkowsky以利以谢,为什么不仅认为这可能成为一个灾难
And we found Eliezer Yudkowsky, who not only thinks this could become a disaster, he’s
他还奉献他的生活和他的所有工作的去处理人工智能对未来的威胁
dedicated his life and all of his work to dealing with the future threat of artificial intelligence.
因为他不认为人工智能的问题是不可避免的
Because he doesn’t think it’s inevitable that artificial intelligence should be a problem.
但确实有可能,如果我们不做他想到的一些事情
But he does have a scenario whereby it could be if we don’t do some of the things he has in mind.
是什么问题?
What’s the problem?
这个问题可能是“要是人工智能开始写软件”
The problem could be that artificial intelligence starts writing software.
复杂的软件
Complex software.
甚至加密成人类不理解的软件
Maybe even encrypted software that human beings do not understand.
不能处理
And can’t deal with.
未来就在眼前
That future is just around the corner.
我们已经用软件编写软件
Already we have software writing software.
在Google,我们已经进一步人工智能的人工智能编写软件
Already at Google we have artificial intelligence writing software for further artificial intelligence.
和谷歌的程序,他们害怕他们不完全
And the Google program is getting to the point where they’re afraid they don’t fully
了解如何做,怎么做
understand how it’s doing what it’s doing.
以利以谢·尤德考斯基最害怕的是 超级智能即将出现
What Eliezer Yudkowsky fears most is that superintelligence will come into existence.
这意味着人工智能程序明显比人类更聪明
That means artificial intelligence programs that are significantly smarter than human
甚至人工智能因电脑再度发展
intelligence, and even human intelligence today augmented by computers.
看到科技的进步,他认为
And what he sees as possible, looking at the rate of advance in technology, is that this
软件的功能将不会是线性增长
will not be a linear growth in the capabilities of software.
但它可能会在一夜之间
But it could be overnight.
有一天,人工智能可能在人类的控制之下
One day, artificial intelligence might be under the control of humans beings, and the
而第二天,它可能变成超智
next day it might have jumped into superintelligence—far more capable than anything we could possibly
出离你的理解能力
understand.
如果你把人工智能网络运行到重要的基础设施上——物联网
If you then put artificial intelligence onto networks that are running critical infrastructure—the
另一个我们从书中看到的话题—可能是最坏的情况,
Internet of Things, another subject we look at in the book—it’s possible in the worst
人类将失去对社会的基础设施的控制
case scenario that human beings will lose control of the infrastructure of society.
在更糟糕的情况下,人工智能将决定它不需要人类
In even worse case scenarios than that, artificial intelligence will decide it doesn’t need humans at all.
和现在是担心让他同意作为一个星球,作为一个
And it is that fear that causes him to agree now as a planet, as a number of different
不同的国家和社会,限制人工智能的发展
countries and societies, to put limits on the development of artificial intelligence,
用国际条约执行,并且监视以确保人工智能
and to do that by international treaty and to have observation to make sure artificial
不会打破由人类和他们的政府制定的限制
intelligence doesn’t break out of pre-determined limits agreed by human beings and their governments.
现在你已经提前看到了这情景
Now you’ve seen that plot before.
你在好莱坞电影里看到过
You’ve seen that in a Hollywood movie.
这是问题的一部分
And that’s part of the problem.
今天我们看到有这么多潜在的预言家
With so many of the possible Cassandras that we looked at today.
就是人类提前在科幻小说里看到了这些威胁的威胁
That humans have seen these threats before, they saw them in science fiction.
所以不论是小行星撞击地球还是
So whether it’s the possibility of an asteroid hitting the Earth or human beings being genetically
人类基因工程或人工智能接管,部分原因是因为
engineered or artificial intelligence taking over, part of the reason we don’t take these
我们没有重视在电影里、小说里看到的情节
Cassandras seriously is we’ve seen it in the movies, we’ve seen it in science fiction.
人工智能的一个必然问题是机器人的兴起
A corollary issue to artificial intelligence is the rise of robotics.
早在这个国家我们就听到讨论关于
And already in this country we’re hearing debates about the possibility that the next
下一个自动化浪潮不是过去随自动化产生工作职业的转变
wave in automation rather than just shifting jobs from one function to another which has
也许是下一个自动化浪潮
happened in the past with automation maybe the next wave of automation would be far more
会更先进更复杂,真正地让人类失去工作
advanced and complex and actually throw humans out of work.
这是一个争论,我们不知道谁是对的
It’s a debate that’s going on and we don’t know who’s right.
有些人说,“有的人说人们会失去了工作,不需要人类去工作
Some people say, “people will be thrown out of work and there’ll be less need for humans
我们将不得不支付什么都不做的人”
to do work and we’ll have to pay humans for doing nothing.”
税收电脑就是其中之一——税收的机器人的构想
Tax computers is one proposal—tax robots is a proposal.
另一个理论是 正如在过去技术进步可能会取代
And the other theory is that just as in the past when technology advances it may displace
某些工作,但它将创建新的工作
certain jobs but it will create new ones.
我们不知道谁正确,但是我们知道我们所有未来的预言家
We don’t know who’s right there, but we do know and all of our future Cassandras,
或者我们现在的预言家对未来的预言,他们必须听
or our present day Cassandras predicting things about the future, that they need to be listened
并且需要检查他们所提出的理论
to, and there needs to be examination of the theories that they’re putting forward and
和他们拿出的资料,即使他们是局外人——
the data that they’re putting forward, even if they are an outlier—a minority view among
少数专家观点
experts.

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视频概述

随着科技的进步,基因编辑,机器自动化的发展。有少部分人开始担忧未来科技进步可能会导致的潜在危险,其中不乏一些科学家。而人们并未对此引起重视,本视频以现代的高科技技术为视角,表达了对未来社会发展的担忧,希望人们能更多的关注现实世界里的“预言家”

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收集自网络

翻译译者

可可天使

审核员

与光同尘

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXxPIZOIPuM

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