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来自扑克冠军的三个决策教程 – 译学馆
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来自扑克冠军的三个决策教程

3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree

我是职业扑克选手
So I’m a professional poker player,
今天 我想谈谈这个游戏教会我的三件事
and today, I want to talk about three things
我觉得可以运用到
that the game has taught me around decision-making
日常生活的决策上
that I find apply to everyday life.
第一件事 关于运气
Now the first of these things is about luck.
生活就像扑克一样
Now, like poker,
也是技巧和运气的游戏
life is also a game of skill and luck,
当涉及到我们关心的最重要的事情
and when it comes to the biggest things we care about
比如健康 财富和人际关系时
health, wealth and relationships —
这些结果不仅取决于决策的成败
these outcomes don’t only dependon the quality of our decision-making,
还取决于生活中运气的好坏
but also the roll of life’s dice.
例如 我们可能非常注重健康
For example, we can be perfectly health-conscious
但仍会不幸患上癌症之类的疾病
and still get unlucky with something like cancer.
或者 我们可能每天抽20支烟
Or we can smoke 20 a
却仍能活到很老很老
day and live to a ripe old age,
而这种模棱两可 有时让我们难以分清
of ambiguity can make it hard for us to know
我们的策略到底有多好
how good our strategies are, sometimes,
特别是在我们经历很多成功的时候
especially when we’re experiencing a lot of success.
例如 早在2010年
For example, back in 2010,
我赢了一场重大扑克锦标赛
I won a really big poker tournament
名为“欧洲扑克巡回赛”
known as the European Poker Tour.
因为我才全职打了一年
And because I’d only been playing full-time for about a year,
所以获胜后 觉得自己一定相当出色
when I won, I assumed I must be rather brilliant.
其实 我真以为自己太出色了
In fact, I thought I was so brilliant
以至于我不仅在研究技巧方面变得相当懒惰
that I not only got rather lazy with studying the game,
我还变得更爱冒险
but I also got more risky,
开始参加所有我能参加的最重要的锦标赛
started playing in the biggest tournaments I could
对抗世界上最好的选手
against the very best in the world.
随后 我的收益每况愈下
And then my profit graph went
这种令人担忧的下滑趋势
from a thing of beauty to something kind of sad,
持续了很长一段时间
with this worrying downhill trend for a long time,
直到我最终意识到
until I finally realized that
我高估了自己的技巧水平
I was overestimating my skill level,
并集中精力调整自己
and got my act together.
这让我想起了在加密货币时期
And this kind of reminds me of what we’ve been seeing
我们所见之事
in the cryptocurrency space,
至少在2017年
at least in 2017,
唯一比市场本身
where the only thing that’s been going up
上涨更快的
faster than the markets themselves
就是“资深投资专家”的数量
is the number of”senior investment specialists”
这些人不知从哪里冒了出来
who have been appearing out of nowhere.
我不是在说
Now I’m not saying it
不可能有战略优势
‘s not possible to have a strategic edge,
但同时
but at the same time,
在你身处涨势如此之快
it’s very easy to feel like a genius
连最糟糕的策略都在盈利的市场
when you’re in a market that’s going up so fast
你也会很容易觉得自己是个天才
that even the worst strategies are making a profit.
所以当我们经历成功的时候
So when we’re experiencing success,
花些时间扪心自问 非常重要
it’s important to take a moment to really ask ourselves
有多少是真正由我们能力而达成的
how much of it is truly down to us,
因为我们的好大喜功总爱淡化运气因素
because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we’re winning. Now,
扑克教会我的第二件事
a second thing poker taught me
是量化思维的重要性
is the importance of quantifying my thinking.
你在打牌的时候不能总想着
When you’re playing, you can’t just get away with going,
“嗯 他们很可能在虚张声势”
“Eh, they’re probably bluffing.”
那只会让你损失一大笔钱
That’s just going to lose you a bunch of money,
因为扑克是一种概率和精确度的游戏
because poker is a game of probabilities and precision,
所以你必须训练自己用数字方式思考
and so you have to train yourself to think in numbers.
所以现在 我一发现自己
So now, whenever I catch myself
正在模糊思考非常重要的事情 比如
thinking vaguely about something really important, like,
“我不太可能在TED演讲时忘记要说的话”
“It’s unlikely I’ll forget what I want to say in my TED Talk,”
我就试着用数字来估计
I now try to estimate it numerically.
笑声
(Laughter)
相信我 这对计划过程非常有帮助
Trust me, it helps a lot with the planning process.
而且事实是 几乎任何事情 无论今天
And the thing is, almost anything that could possibly happen here today,
或未来有可能发生的事
or at any point in the future,
也都能用概率来表示
can also be expressed as a probability, too.
笑声
(Laughter)
所以现在我也试着用数字说话
So now I also try to speak in numbers as well.
如果有人问我
So if someone asks me, “Hey, Liv,
“嘿 Liv 你今晚会一起去吗?”
do you think you’re gonna come along to that thing tonight?”
我不会只回答 “是的 很可能”
instead of just saying to them,”Yeah, probably,”
而是实际告诉他们我最好的估计
I actually give them my best estimate
比如说 60%的可能性
say, 60 percent.
因为— 我知道这听起来有点奇怪
Because — I know that sounds a little odd —
但事实是 我在推特上做了一个调查
but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter
看看人们如何理解“可能”一词
of what people understand the word”probably” to mean,
这就是各种回答
and this was the spread of answers.
差异巨大
Enormous!
显然 在实际传递确切信息方面它毫无用处
So apparently, it’s absolutely useless at actually conveying any real information.
所以如果你们发现自己在用这些模糊的词
So if you guys catch yourselves using these vague words,
比如 “可能” 或”偶尔”
like”probably” or”sometimes,”
尝试使用数字
try, instead, using numbers,
因为当我们用数字说话时
because when we speak in numbers,
我们知道对方会怎样理解
we know what lands in the other person’s brain.
我今天想提的第三件事 是直觉
Now, the third thing I want to touch on today is intuition.
你多久会在脸书的订阅推送里看到
How often have you seen these kinds of inspirational memes
这种启发性的传播图片?
in your Facebook feed?
相信自己的直觉 永远不要怀疑
[Always trust your gut feelingand never second-guess.]
相信自己感觉到的共鸣
(Trust the vibes you get from people.)
说得很好 对吧?
They’re nice, right?
真好 是的 “相信自己的内心”
It’s lovely. Yes.”Trust your soul.”
其实它们是非常糟糕的建议
Well, they’re terrible advice.
这几位是目前世界上最好的扑克玩家
These are some of the best poker players in the world right now.
他们看着像纯粹凭感觉和直觉活着的人吗
Do they look like people who live purely off feelings and intuitions?
看看他们 很明显
Look at them!
这些人不慌不忙 仔细分析
Obviously, these guys are about slow, careful analysis,
那是因为这个游戏已不再像过去那样
and that’s because the game has outgrown the days
靠小聪明和察言观色
where pure street smarts and people-reading
就能让你登峰造极
can get you to the top.
还因为我们的直觉
And that’s because our intuitions
并非想象中那么完美
aren’t nearly as perfect as we’d like to believe.
我是说 每当我们身处困境
I mean, it’d be great, whenever we’re in a tough spot,
都能从某种神奇的灵感源泉中
to just have an answer appear to us
得到答案那当然好
from some magical source of inspiration.
但在现实中 我们的直觉
But in reality, our gut is extremely vulnerable
极易受到各种一厢情愿和偏见的影响
to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases.
那我们的直觉有什么好处呢?
So then, what is our gut good for?
我读过的所有研究都得出了结论:
Well, all the studies I’ve read conclude that
直觉最适合于
it’s best-suited for everyday things
我们有很多经验的日常事物
that we have lots and lots of experience in,
比如 我们还未张口 怎么就能知道
like how we just know that our friend is mad at us
我们的朋友生我们的气了
before we’ve even said anything to them,
或者 我们能否把车停进很小的停车位
or whether we can fit our car into a tight parking spot.
但碰到真正重要的事情时
But when it comes to the really big stuff,
比如我们的职业道路将会如何
like what’s our career path going to be
或者 我们应该和谁结婚
or who should we marry,
为什么我们要认为
why should we assume that
直觉比慢速 适当分析更准?
our intuitions are better calibrated for these than slow, proper analysis?
我是说 它们没有任何数据可依
I mean, they don’t have any data to be based off.
所以我的第三个经验就是
So my third lesson is,
我们不应该忽视自己的直觉
while we shouldn’t ignore our intuitions,
但也不应过分看重它们
we shouldn’t overprivilege them either.
今天我想用自己的一套传播图片
And I’d like to summarize these three lessons today
来总结这三个经验
with my own set of memes,
添加了更多扑克玩家的反转
with more of a poker-player twist.
“你以巨大的样本容量而获得的成功 才最惬意”
“Success is sweetest when you achieve it across a large sample size.
直觉是你的朋友
“Your gut is your friend
成本效益分析也是
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
未来是未知的
“The future is unknown,
但你完全可以尝试估计出来
but you can damn well try and estimate it.”
谢谢大家
Thank you.
鼓掌
(Applause)

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视频概述

作为众多纸牌游戏之一的Poker能带给我们何种在日常生活决策上的启示呢?来看看前Poker冠军的经验之谈!

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翻译译者

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审核员 V

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M

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