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关于全球变暖的13个误解

13 Misconceptions About Global Warming

今天我们就讨论下气候变化
Let’s talk about the science of climate change.
你难道指的是全球变暖吗?
Don’t you mean Global Warming?
你怎么进来的?
How’d you get in here?
我就是从未离开过的互联网 你为什么改名呢?
I’m the Internet, I never left. Now why’d you change the name?
全球变暖没有发生所以你就把它叫做”气候变化”?
Global warming wasn’t happeningso you had to call it “Climate Change”?
全球的平均温度都在上升 所以理论上讲 全球变暖是真的
The overall average temperature of the planet is increasing, so Global Warming is technically correct,
但这不意味着每个地方都同时变暖
but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be warmer everywhere all the time.
因此这就造成了一些困惑 比如在寒冷的冬天 你可能会说……
And that leads to some confusion, like on a cold winter’s day, you might say…
全球变暖还会有这么冷的天!
So much for global warming!
没错
Exactly.
气候变化这个词不光意味着全球气温变暖 更强的风暴 更严重的干旱洪水和
So the term climate change indicates that the problem is more intense storms, droughts and floods,
海洋酸化问题
ocean acidification, not just that the globe is warming.
——但事实不是这样的——怎么说?
But it’s not. What?
——没有全球变暖——从何时开始的?
The globe’s not warming. Since when?
——从1995年 ——额 用数据画趋势线不是这样弄的
—1995.—Um, that’s not how you draw a trendline through data.
如果斜率是零 气候就会变冷
If the slope is nil, the climate’s chill.
14个最热年中有13个发生在本世纪 而且你用的图表太旧了
Y’know thirteen of the fourteen hottest years occurred this century and the graph you’re using is old,
它没有包括卫星数据
it doesn’t include satellite data.
如果把它包括在内 显然 这是一个仍旧上升的趋势
If you take that into account, the trend is obviously continuing upwards.
所以你觉得现在在变暖
Oh, so now you say it’s warming.
过去 科学家就告诉我们(气温)在变冷
In the past, scientists told us it was cooling.
为什么他们不能直接承认自己根本不知道到底发生了什么?
Why can’t they just admit that they have no idea what’s going on?
没错 上世纪七十年代就有一些出版的论文预测变冷
It’s true in the 1970’s there were some papers published predicting cooling,
但同期 有六倍的论文预测变暖
but over that same time period there were six times as many papers predicting warming.
所以科学家也就没有改变他们的态度
So scientists really haven’t changed their tune.
就从温度判断我就觉得他们说错了 地球(气温)在变冷
Well just judging by temperatures, I say they’re wrong. The Earth is cooling.
但你不能光凭温度判断 还有其他大量的迹象表明地球在变暖
But you don’t just have to go by temperatures. There are plenty of other signs that the globe
比如海平面每年上升3毫米
is warming, like sea levels are rising three millimetres a year. That’s an indication that
这暗示着海洋因变暖而在扩大 南极洲和格林兰岛的冰层以一种前所未有的速度在融化
the oceans are getting warmer and so are expanding. Ice on Antarctica and Greenland is melting
并且北极圈的冰在不断的减少
at unprecedented rates and arctic sea ice continues to decline.
北极圈的冰在过去两年里增加了40%
Nuh-uh. Arctic sea ice increased forty percent in the last two years.
还在上升?你就只注意到了那个?可你知道总体的下降趋势怎样吗?
That last little uptick? That’s what you focus on? What about the general downward trend?
这不能说明什么 如果地球持续变暖 最可能的问题根源就是太阳
It could mean anything. You know if the Earth is warming the most likely source of the problem is the sun.
太阳会越来越亮 你想过这个问题吗?
The sun is getting brighter. Did you ever think of that?
上世纪三十年代 太阳就变得越来越亮 随后这可能会导致气温变暖
The sun was getting brighter, in the 1930’s, and it probably contributed to some warming then.
但从五十年代开始 太阳就开始变得暗淡 但气温仍旧上升
But since the 50’s the sun has been getting dimmer and temperatures continue to rise.
所以你就自然而然地认为这是人为的二氧化碳排放造成的
Oh, so you automatically assume it’s man-made CO2.
人类每年往大气层排放的的二氧化碳
You know humans only emit a tiny fraction
只是很小一部分
of the CO2 released into the atmosphere every year.
这倒是真的 相比来自陆地和海洋生态系统碳库的7800亿吨 而人类才排放300亿吨
That’s true. People emit about 30 gigatonnes compared with 780 gigatonnes from natural land and ocean processes.
所以你就觉得人类(排放的这部分二氧化碳)没多大影响
So you admit it, humans aren’t the problem.
才不是呢 陆地和海洋会吸收它释放的7800亿吨二氧化碳
No! Before us the system was in balance with the land and oceans absorbing that same amount
这种平衡让大气中的二氧化碳在八十万年里都
– 780 gigatonnes a year. This balance kept the carbon dioxide levels
一直保持在百万分之180~280
in the atmosphere between 180 and 280 part permillion for 800,000 years.
而现在却在处于百万分之400 且仍旧上升着
Now it’s at 400 parts permillion and still rising.
但我们排放的那一小部分二氧化碳不会造成那个问题
But our small contribution couldn’t have caused that.
大气中二氧化碳的含量
Well the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is
每年都增加150亿吨 也就是百万分之2
increasing by about fifteen gigatonnes or two parts per million every year.
但你怎么知道是人为排放的二氧化碳造成的?
But how do you know that’s man-made CO2?
因为大气中的同位素碳13比
Because the isotope carbon-13 is less common
在化石燃料里的常见 随着时间的推移
in fossil fuels than it is naturally in the atmosphere. And over time we’re seeing the
碳13的浓度下降
concentrations of carbon-13 are decreasing.
但火山喷发释放的二氧化碳要比人为排放的多
But volcanoes emit way more CO2 than humans.
才没有 它们每年只释放2.5亿吨 这可比人们所排放的1%还要少
No they don’t. They emit about 0.25 gigatonnes annually. That’s less than one percent as
好了!就算我们要对二氧化碳含量的上升负责
much as humans. OK, well even if we are responsible for the
但也没多大关系 因为水是屹今为止最有影响力的温室气体(水蒸气也是温室气体)
rise in CO2, it doesn’t matter because water is by far the most potent greenhouse gas.
——没错——我赢了
Yes it is. I win.
才没有呢 大气中的水含量也在增加
No you don’t! Water in the atmosphere is increasing as well.
但这不能归咎于人类活动
But that can’t be due to human activity.
大气增加水蒸气唯一的方式就是变暖 所以……
The only way for the atmosphere to hold more water vapour is if it gets warmer. So…
等下 你不会指的是…
Hang on, you’re not saying…
就是你想的那样 全都归结于二氧化碳 二氧化碳增加一倍就会导致全球温度上升一摄氏度
Yes! It all comes back to CO2. A doubling of CO2 on its own would increase the temperature
但那种变暖意味着大气中会有更多的水蒸气
of the globe by one degree Celsius. But that warming means there will be more water vapour
然后冰层融化 地球表面的反射率降低
in the atmosphere and ice will melt reducing the reflectivity of Earth’s surface. So it’s
因此这是一个正向的反馈循环 且有一大波证据表明
a positive feedback loop, which a bunch of different sources of evidence all indicate
这将导致气温上升3摄氏度
it will lead to about a 3 degree Celsius rise in temperature.
但如果这是真的 为什么会有那么多的失败预测
But if this is true, why have all the predictions failed.
事实上 大部分的预测都是和观察结果保持一致的
In actuality most of the predictions show remarkable agreement with observations.
但你可能参考的是1988年的模型数据
But you’re probably thinking of the model from 1988,
那时我们认为气候敏感性更高
back when we thought climate sensitivity was higher.
如果你以升温3度 二氧化碳加倍重新计算这个模型
If you re-run that model with 3 degrees of warming for every doubling of CO2,
你会发现 预测正好匹配我们观察到的气候变暖
the predictions match exactly the warmingthat we’ve observed.
可是过去地球就一直在变暖、变冷所以到底是谁释放了二氧化碳 外星人吗?
But the Earth has warmed and cooled in the past. So who was releasing CO2 then, aliens?
我们知道过去的气候变化是通过米兰科维奇旋回(一个地球气温变化的集合影响)在一定间隔触发的
We understand that past changes in the climate were triggered at regular intervals by Milankovitch cycles,
这是一个地球斜率的周期震荡
that is the periodic oscillation of the Earth’s tilt,
斜率的旋进 以及地球椭圆轨道的伸缩
precession of the tilt, and stretching and squishing of Earth’s elliptical orbit.
每次的变暖周期 二氧化碳和温度都是一起上升的
During every warming cycle, CO2 and temperature rise together.
但如果你仔细看看那张图
Ah, but if you look closely at that graph,
你会发现二氧化碳的那条线是滞后于温度上升的那条线的 所以二氧化碳不会导致气候变暖
you’ll see that CO2 lags behind the temperature rise, so it can’t be causing the warming.
二氧化碳是没有导致第一次的变暖 米兰科维奇旋回改变了
The CO2 doesn’t cause the first warming. The Milankovitch cycles change the way the sunlight
阳光直射地球 导致一点点的变暖 随后减少海洋中二氧化碳的溶解度
hits the Earth and that causes a little bit of warming decreasing the solubility of CO2
因此 一部分你二氧化碳被释放 这是一个正反馈循环
in the oceans. So some of that CO2 is released and that is a positive feedback loop, which
这就放大了变暖 事实上 超过90%的(气温)上升都发生在二氧化碳开始增加之后
amplifies the warming. In fact over 90% of the increase happens after the CO2 starts to rise.
假设你是对的 我们排放的二氧化碳造成了地球变暖
Let’s say you’re right, and the CO2 we’re
有什么不好吗?地球变暖了些 没什么大不了
releasing is warming the planet. What’s so bad about that? The planet gets a little warmer,
我不是指这将导致一些大灾难
big deal. I’m not claiming it’s going to be some sort
但我们正在经受着更强的风暴 更严重的干旱洪水
of crazy catastrophe, but we are going to get more intense storms, more droughts and
还有海洋酸化 海平面上升
floods, the oceans will become more acidic, sea levels will rise and my point is it would
我的观点是如果我们现在就开始减排 这对地球上的所有物种来说都是件好事
be better for all species on this planet and probably cheaper for us if we just started
而且对我们来说 现在治理付出的代价也许会更加小
reducing emissions now than if we wait and pay the consequences later.
——不 谢啦——你为什么戴着墨镜?
No thanks. Why are you wearing sunglasses?
因为气候变暖
Global warming.
感谢Audible.com对本期视频的支持
This episode of Veritasium was supported by Audible.com
Audible.com是有声书领域的领导者 拥有超过15万种的图书
a leading provider of audiobooks with over 150,000 titles in all areas of literature
包括小说 非小说和期刊
including fiction, non-fiction, and periodicals.
这周我想推荐Merchants of Doubt这本书
This week I wanted to recommend the book Merchants of Doubt,
讲述了科学家传播的错误的某些话题
which is about scientists who have spread misinformation about certain topics
比如吸烟是如何导致肺癌的 氯氟化碳是如何导致臭氧空洞的
like how cigarettes cause lung cancer, or how CFC’s cause the ozone hole, or now how
或者是今天讲的二氧化碳是如何导致全球变暖的 如果你想要知道更多关于这本书的内容
CO2 is causing the planet to warm. So if you want to find out more about that you can download
你可以前往audible.com/veritasium下载
this book by going to audible.com/veritasium
或者你可以选择免费阅读一个月
or you can pick any other book of your choosing for a one month free trial.
也感谢你们的收看
and I want to thank you for watching.

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