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关于“无知就能无畏的可行性”分析报告

12 Cognitive Biases Explained - How to Think Better and More Logically Removing Bias

大家好 这里是“实用心理”频道
Hey guys practice psychology here,
本视频中我们要介绍
and in this video we’re going to be talking about
12种认知偏差
12 cognitive biases.
大部分都是ISMONOFF TV的调查结果
Most of these were researched by ISMONOFF TV,
ISMONOFF经常会做一些这种话题
who has some great animations on topics like these
以及其他自我发展话题的动画
and other self development topics.
可以点击简介或末屏中的链接可观看他们的节目
So check them out in the description or on the end screen.
现在让我们开始了
Now let’s get into it.
一 锚定偏差
Number one is anchoring bias.
人们经常完全依赖于所接收的第一手信息
We humans usually completely rely on the first information that we received.
当我们做决定时
No matter how reliable that piece of information is
并不考虑信息的可信度
when we take decisions.
第一信息会对我们的大脑产生巨大影响
The very first information has tremendous effect on our brain.
比如我想卖给你一辆车
For instance, I want to sell you a car
你也有买车的意向
and you are interested to buy it.
当你问我卖价多少时
Let’s say you ask me what the prices
我告诉你3万美元
and I tell you thirty thousand dollars.
若你一周后再过来
Now if you come back aweek later
我告诉你 我会卖你2万美元
and I say I’ll sell it to you for twenty thousand dollars.
这看起了便宜了很多对不对
This seems like a new very cheap price to you, right?
那是因为你是基于最初的卖价3万美元
Because your judgment is based on the initial information
而做出的这种判断
you got which was 30,000.
你觉得你捡到便宜了
You feel like you ‘re getting a great deal
但是如果一开始你问我报价
but, let’s say the first time that you ask me
我说1万美元
and I say 10,000.
接着你下周再来
and then you come back the next week
然后我告诉你这辆车卖2万
and I tell you I’m gonna sell to you for 20,000.
这时你就觉得车买亏了
Now it doesn’t look like a very good deal,
这是锚定偏差在作祟
because the anchoring bias.
这只是锚定偏差中非常普通的案例
This is just a very generic use of the anchoring bias,
至于为什么3万块的车应该卖1万
and I don’t want a bunch of comments about
我并不想讨论太多
why thirty thousand dollar car should be sold 10’000 dollars.
再举一个和树有关的例子
But another example is trees.
我这样问你
What if I asked you,
假如世界上最高的树高于或低于1200英尺
if the tallest tree in the world was higher or lower than 1,200 feet,
那这棵树有多高
and if so, how tall?
这时锚定偏见就会重现
The same effect occurs,
如果我让你凭空猜想
if I asked you to guess out of thin air
而不是给你一个1200英尺的锚定数据
instead of giving you an anchor of 1,200 feet.
那答案会很疯狂
The results are crazy.
二 可得性偏差
Number two availability heuristic bias.
人们会高估自己所掌握信息的重要性
People overestimate the importance of information that they have.
我举个例子
Let me give you an example here,
一些人认为
Some people think that
恐怖主义是对美国最大的威胁
terrorism is the biggest threat to the United States,
因为那是他们从电视上看来的 新闻一直在谈论这些
because that’s what they see on TV. The news always talks about it,
由此恐怖主义的危险就被夸大了
and because of that it inflates the danger.
但如果你观察一下真实的情况
But if you look at the real perspectives
就会发现电视综合征引起的死亡是恐怖主义的55倍
televisions cause 55 times more deaths than terrorism.
没错 电视的确会让人产生依赖并致人死亡
Yes, TVs literally following people and kill them
造成的死亡数是恐怖分子的55倍多
fifty five more times than terrorism.
根据消费品安全委员会的说法
You’re more likely to be killed by a cow than a terrorist,
你更可能被牛而非恐怖分子杀死
according to the Consumer Product Safety Commission.
你被椰子砸到头死亡的几率
It’s more likely to die from a coconut falling on your head,
大于被恐怖分子杀死的几率
and killing you than a terrorist attack.
谢谢加里·维纳查克提供以上案例
Thank you gary vaynerchuk for that one.
即使你雇佣警察以免受恐怖分子袭击
Even the police that are hired to protect you from terrorists,
据估计你被警察杀死的可能性
it’s estimated that you were a hundred thirty times
比被恐怖分子杀死的可能性大130倍
be killed by the police than by a terrorist.
那是因为人们做决定
That’s because people do not make the decision
并不是基于事实和数据
based on facts and statistics
而是经常根据新闻和故事
but usually they make it on news and stories
以及传言来做决定
and stuff they hear from other people.
因为死于恐怖袭击比死于椰子击中头部更可怕
It’s way scarier to die from a terrorist attack in a falling coconut
所以新闻一般不会报道死于椰子的相关案例
and because of this usually the news won’t cover it,
因为这种新闻不赚钱
because there’s not much money in it.
三 从众效应
Number three is the bandwagon effect
人们去做或者去相信一件事情
People do or believe in something
并不是因为他们真的相信
not because they actually do believe it,
而是因为别人相信
but because that’s what the rest of the world believes in.
换句话说 就是他们不思考就从众
In other words following the rest without thinking.
如果你曾听某人说
If you’ve ever heard someone say,
如果你朋友要跳河 你会跟着跳吗
well if your friends jump off a bridge, would you?
然后他就会因为从众效应谴责你
then that someone is accusing you of the bandwagon effect
这种事情司空见惯
It happens a lot with us.
我的意思是许多人在选举中会选某个候选人
I mean, a lot of people vote for the certain candidate in a election
是因为这个候选人最受欢迎
because he’s the most popular
或这些人想也想参与投票这件事
or because they want to be part of the majority.
从众效应也经常发生在股票市场
It happens a lot in the stock market too.
如果某些人开始买某只股票
If someone starts buying a stock
因为他们觉得会涨
because they think it’s going to rise,
那么许多其他人就会跟着选这只股票
then a lot of other people are going to start picking the stock as well.
开会时也会发生从众效应
It can also happen during meetings.
如果大家都同意某件事
If everyone agrees on something
你往往就会跟着同意那件事
you are more likely to agree with him on that object.
在管理学中与之相反的是“群体思维”
In management the opposite of this is called the group think,
公司都会非常努力的克服群体思维
and it’s something companies try very hard to turn.
因为如果十个人中九个人同意某件事
Because if nine out of ten people agree on something,
而最后一个人不同意或者保持沉默
for the last person doesn’t and won’t speak up
那么可能就有一个好主意被扼杀
it could squelch a great idea.
四 支持选择偏差
Number four is choice supportive bias
人们对于他们自己做的选择
So people have the tendency to defend themselves
往往会自我辩解
because it was their choice.
因为他们认为自己的决定肯定对
Just because I made the choice it must be right.
比如一个人买了一台苹果公司的产品
For example let’s say a person buys an apple product,
假如他买的是苹果电脑 而非微软电脑
let’s say it’s a macbook instead of a windows pc
那他就可能忽视苹果电脑的缺点
well he’s more likely to ignore the downsides
或是苹果电脑的一些故障
or the faults of the apple computer,
当讨论电脑的缺点时
while pointing out the downsides of the pc
他会更倾向提及
he’s more likely to notice the advantages
苹果电脑的优点而不说微软的优点
of the apple computer not the windows computer.
我希望有人能指出他做了错误决定
I would someone point out that they made a bad decision.
比如说你有一条狗
Well let’s say you have a dog
你会觉得太棒了 因为是你的狗
you think it’s awesome because it’s your dog,
哪怕它有时会在地板上便便
although it might poop on the floor every now and then,
就和选取政治候选人一样
the same goes for political candidates,
不是说他们都会在地板上…… 而是两个选择都可能很烂
not the pooping part but they both may suck
但这两个选择之一在你眼里之所以更好
but one of the lesser of two evils maybe more right
因为你选的就是他
in your mind because you voted for them.
五 确认偏差
Number five confirmation bias
我们往往听从那些符合我们已有认知的信息
we tend to listen to information that confirms what we already know
甚至我们解释这些信息以证明
or even interpret the information that we receive in a way
自己的已有信息是正确的
that confirms the current information that we already have.
假如你朋友说吃糖不健康
Let’s say that your friend believes that suites are unhealthy,
这是一个相当宽泛的信念
this is generally a pretty broad belief.
他会只关注那些强化已有认知的信息
He will only focus on the information that confirms what we already know,
他往往会浏览能确认已知信息的视频
is more likely to click on videos that confirmed that belief
或者阅读那些能证明自己观点的文章
or read articles that support his argument.
他不会深思熟虑然后输入:
He doesn’t go through and type
提高血糖水平对健康的积极影响
positive health effects of increasing blood glucose levels
或者吃一碗冰激凌的积极影响
or positive effects of eating a bowl of ice cream.
不 他只会本能地去百度 并键入:
No, he will instinctively go to google and type in
吃糖对人体的危害
how bad is sugar for you.
在科学情景中 确认偏差非常危险
The confirmation bias is a very dangerous in scientific situations,
它确实是一种被广泛承认的认知偏见
and actually one of the most widely committed cognitive biases.
六 鸵鸟效应
Number six the ostrich bias
这是一种忽视负面信息而作出的
this is the decision or rather subconscious decision
决定或下意识决定
to ignore the negative information.
这也表明我们只想考虑事情的积极面
It may also be an indication we only want to consider the positive aspects of something.
这不仅仅是说我们只寻找正面信息
This goes beyond are only looking for the positive information,
而是说负面信息确实是存在的
but this is when there is negative information
只是我们选择将它忽略不计了
and we choose to ignore it as an outlier.
有时候我们有了问题
Sometimes even when we have a problem
就会试图通过忽视的方式使其消失
we try to ignore it thinking it will go away.
假如你有一个任务要做
Let’s say you have an assignment to do,
而这个任务并非你真心实意想做的
it’s not something that you really want to do
你就会一直拖延下去
so you may just keep on procrastinating with it.
因为你在心里说:不管它 它就会消失
Because you’re minding said it will go away
或者不管它 它就会解决了
or is solved by ignoring it.
吸烟者通常知道“吸烟有害健康”
Smokers usually they know it’s bad for their health,
但许多人一直在忽视香烟盒子上的这个负面暗示
but a lot of them keep ignoring the negative implications of cigarettes,
他们觉得吸烟不会伤害到自己
thinking it will not damage them or might stop them
或者生病了再戒烟也不迟
before anything serious will happen,
他们就是觉得自己偏偏幸运
because they consider themselves in our wire.
为避免弄懂负面消息
To avoid finding out negative information,
我们就是不去重视它们
we just stop looking for it,
在可能是许多科学研究实验室的严重犯罪
and this could be a serious crime in many scientific research laboratories
起码会提升你的无知度
and basically promotes ignorance.
七 结果偏见
Number 7 outcome bias
我们往往首先基于事情的结果
We tend to judge the efficacy of a decision based
来评价它的功效
primarily on how things turn out.
做出决定后
After decision is made,
我们往往很少检查作出决定时的条件
we rarely examine the conditions that existed at the time of the decision
而把最终结果成功与否作为
choosing instead to evaluate performance solely or mostly
评价绩效的唯一或者主要手段
on whether the end result was positive or not.
换句话说 你判断一个举动正确与否的标准是基于成果
In other words, you decide whether an action is right or wrong based on the outcome
这就有点效果论的意思了
this goes a little bit into consequentialism
结果偏见常与事后偏见同时发生
but it goes hand-in-hand with the hindsight bias
假如说一个经理想做个决定
let’s say there’s a manager who wants to take the decision
他的团队和数据都告诉他要采取这么一个决定
his team and the data are telling him to make one decision
但是他的直觉告诉他要做另一个决定
but his gut is telling him to make another decision
然后他开始遵从自己的内心做决定
well he goes ahead and makes the decision that has got told him to do
结果证明他的决定是正确的
and then in the end it was the right decision
这件事能证明相信自己的内心 而非听从你的团队
does that mean it’s actually better to trust your gut
基于事实和数据对你的忠告更好 对吗?
rather than listen your team who is advising you based on facts and statistics
好吧 这就是结果偏见
well that’s what the outcome biases
你做了决定 然后基于成果判定你所做决定的效力
you take the decision and bass the effectiveness of your decision on the outcome
哪怕成功只是靠运气
even if it was luck
这种逻辑思考并不好 实际上从长远来看
now this is bad logical thinking and will actually lead you to ruin thinking
会破坏你的思维能力并导致不好的后果
and bad outcomes in the long run
八 过度自信
number 8 overconfidence
有时你会过分自信 然后开始不根据事实
Sometimes you get too confident and start taking decisions not based on facts
而基于你的观点或直觉做决定
but based on your opinion or gut
因为在过去的很多次你一直是正确的
because you have been correct so many times in the past
比如你是一个股票交易员 在几年内买了5只股票
for example you are a stock trader and you pick five stocks
所有股票都非常成功 收益颇丰
in a couple years all of them turn out to be successful and profitable
这会增加你的自信
it increases your confidence to a point
使你开始相信
where you can start believing
你无论买哪只股票都会大赚一笔
that whatever start you pick will be successful
这种思维相当危险
it’s quite dangerous
因为你会开始停止寻找真相 只依赖自己的观点
because you might stop looking at the facts and solely rely on your opinion
如果你想了解更多内容
check out the gamblers fallacy
可以去查一下赌徒谬论
if you want more information on this
只因为你五次扔硬币都人头朝上
just because you flip the coin five times and it landed on heads
并不意味着下一次人头朝上的几率会大于50%
doesn’t mean that the next time there’s more than fifty percent chance of it landing on ahead again
《自尊是敌人》是一部谈论偏见的好书
ego is the enemy is a great book
我已经为它写了一个书评
about this bias and i just made a book review on it
九 安慰剂效应
number nine placebo bias
当你相信某事会对你产生一定的影响
when you believe something will have a certain effect on you
那么这件事确实就会产生这种影响
then it will actually cause that effect
比如说你生病了
for instance you are sick and the doctor gives you
医生给你开了某种药
a certain medicine
就算这种药实际上没有帮助到你
even if that medicine does not actually help you
就算这种药只是糖做的
even if it’s just made of sugar
你也会相信这种药对你有所裨益
you believe that it will help you
它就能真的让你更快地恢复健康
and it actually causes you to recover quicker
这种事情可能听起来不是非常符合逻辑
this might not sound very logical
但是有许多实验已经证明了这一点
but dozens of experiments have proven this that’s why
那就是为何乐观的人通常有乐观的生活 反之亦然
if you realize positive people usually have positive life and vice-versa
你的思考方式超级重要
the way you think is super important
这一点我们在之前的视频中也提到过
and we’ve hit on this in previous videos
基于同样的理由 许多个人发展类书籍声称
for the same reason a lot of personal development books say that
心之所向 必然成功
if you really believe something you will eventually achieve it
至少你会找到一种成功的路径
or at least find a way to achieve it
因为安慰剂效应会给你所需的动力
because the placebo effect will give you the motivation that need
而这种思想真的是一种有力量的东西
the mind truly is a powerful thing
而且安慰剂效应确实并不总是有害的
and this actually isn’t always bad thinking
事实上 如果我们明智地运用安慰剂效应
in fact you can use a placebo effect
就能充分发挥自己的优点
in our advantage if we use it wisely
确实有一种安慰剂效应的相反面 即反安慰剂效应
there’s actually a reverse of this and it’s called the nocebo
而这是与生俱来的
and this is when it is native
十 幸存者偏差
number ten survivorship bias
这种偏见出现在当你基于生存信息评价某类事情的时候
this bias is when you are judging something based on the surviving information
让我来举个例子
let me give you an example here
有许多文章的标题是这样的:
there are a lot of articles titled
百万富翁每天早上会做的五件事
like five things millionaires do every morning
这意味着每天早上你做这些事就会成为百万富翁吗?
does that mean doing those things every morning will make you a millionaire
不 有太多人做了这些事却没有成为百万富翁
no, there are tons of people who did them and didn’t become a millionaire
但仍然有很多人做了这些事 成了百万富翁
but there are also tons of people who did them and did become a millionaire
所以这些文章主要是基于那些成为百万富翁的人
so these articles are primarily based on the ones who survived
而非那些做了相同的事情
and reject all other people to do the same thing
却没成为百万富翁的人
but did not become millionaires
另一个例子就是
another example is to say that
古代城市的建筑使用了极端的工程学
buildings in an ancient city were built using extreme engineering
因为它们是如此的历史悠久
because they lasted so long
这是一个坏的结论
this is a bad conclusion
因为纳入你考虑范围的是那些保留下来的建筑
because you aren’t considering what ratio of buildings were built to how many that lasted
你看到的仅仅是那些有了几千年历史的建筑
you’re only seeing the ones that lasted thousands of years of weathering
而其它90%的建筑已经随历史湮没无闻了
when the other ninety percent I’ve already washed away
你很难明白你不知道的事情
it’s hard to know what you don’t know
十一 选择性知觉
Number 11 selective perception
我喜欢这个
I like this one.
选择性知觉是一种偏见
Selective perception is a form of bias
它会让人们以自己的参考框架
that causes people to perceive messages and actions
去感知信息和举动
according to their frame of reference
人们用选择性知觉忽视或忘记
using selective perception people tend to overlook and forget that
与自己信念和期待相矛盾的事情
contradicts our beliefs or expectations
假如说你是一个吸烟者
let’s say for example you’re a smoker and
还是一个足球迷
you’re a big fan of soccer you’re more
那么你就更倾向于忽视关于香烟的消极广告
likely to ignore the negative advertisements about cigarettes
因为从你吸烟那一刻起
because since you are already smoking
你就有一种吸烟没妨害的概念
you have this perception that it’s okay to smoke
但是你往往会更注意到有关足球的广告
but there’s an advertisement about soccer you are more likely to notice it
因为你对此有非常积极的感知
because you have a very positive perception about it
这很有趣 体现了你是如何通过潜意识
this is actually something really interesting and has to do with how you perceive
感知并过滤这个世界上的信息的
the world due to your subconscious mind and what it filters out
十二 盲点偏差
The last one is called the blind spot bias.
如果我问你你是一个有偏见的人吗
If I asked you how biased you are.
你可能会说
You would probably say that
你比大多数人偏见少
you are less biased than the average person,
你更倾向于基于事实和数据做出自己的判断
and you are more likely to base your judgment on facts and statistics,
这就叫做盲点偏差
and that’s what’s known as a blind spot bias,
或者说偏见偏差
or the bias bias.
你的偏见在于
Your are bias,
你觉得你比别人的偏见少
because you think that you are less biased than everyone else.
比如
For example,
我给我的老师送礼
I gave something to my teacher
然后下一周她给我的试卷打了个好分数
and the next week she gave me a good grade on a test.
如果你问她她给我打分时
If you ask her whether she was biased
是否有特殊照顾下
when she gave me that grade,
那她的答案会是礼物
the answer will be that the gift never affected her decision
对于她给我打分时没有影响
when marking my paper.
但如果你问她其他老师是否
But if you ask her if other teachers are biased
会因为学生送礼而放水时 那大多数时候
when students give them gifts, she will say yes.
她会回答“是”
In most cases.
这就是所谓盲点偏差
And that’s what the blind spot biases.
我很享受制作本视频
I really enjoyed creating this video,
但本视频的大多数内容是由我的朋友ISMONOFF调查所得
but most of the content was curated by my friend ismonoff.
他的频道和我的类似
He’s got a channel similar to mine
我希望你们点击屏幕或简介里的链接浏览他的频道
and I’d like you to check it out here or in the description.
希望你们喜欢我的视频并且学到了知识
I hope you guys enjoyed this video and learn something.
如果你想学习更多有益的知识
If you want more valuables like this
请浏览我的频道并点击订阅
check out my channel and subscribe.
感谢观看
Thanks for watching.

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视频概述

一直自诩理智清醒活着的你,是否只是自我安慰;一直认为自己在进步的你,是否知道自己的学习只是在证实已有的错误观念,错上加错……你的大脑一直在忽悠你,让你自以为很了不起,请默念“我只是一粒尘埃”,毕竟,无知不能无畏,只能换来一句“你是不是傻”,常怀敬畏之心才能走得更远……

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

ABC

审核员

审核员YZ

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEwGBIr_RIw

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